Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 261741

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1241 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

VFR conditions will prevail for the start of the 18Z TAF cycle. A
lull in convective activity is expected at the terminals until this
evening. The best convective chances reside at KDHT and KGUY and have
carried prevailing showers for KDHT starting at 2Z. There is a chance
for convection to impact KAMA but confidence is too low to place in
prevailing. Any convection that impacts the terminals could brief ifr
to lifr conditions. Convective chances drop early Saturday morning.
The next round of convection will likely hold off until the end of
this TAF cycle.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 353 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016/

At 08z storm activity is trending down with mostly stratiform
precipitation with light showers over our eastern zones.
Moreover...will cancel the Flood Watch as flooding is no longer
expected with this activity. Additional rain amounts less than a
few tenths of an inch expected in the watch area.

Otherwise...the upper trough axis over the western CONUS
continues to slowly advance eastward with 595 DAM ridge spinning over
the southern Appalachian Mountains per water vapor imagery. Short
and medium range numerical guidance prog a weak disturbance to
move over the OK Panhandle later today as the frontal boundary
retreats northward. While there is some uncertainty how far north
the front will retreat...most guidance does have it as far north
as southern KS by tomorrow evening. Convection will once again
initiate near this front and may have some modest upper level
dynamics to work with as disturbance moves through with best
chances over the northern TX panhandle and OK Panhandle. Further
south...The combination of decent moisture fields and weak upslope
flow will also lead to at least isolated thunder potential but
with weaker upper level flow. The northern zones will have the
best chance for stronger storms. Inverted-v soundings with steep
LL lapse rates will result in strong wind gust potential. Model
soundings also show very little CIN during the afternoon but also
not much buoyancy with skinny CAPE profiles resulting in a lower
hail threat. Vertical shear will be best in the OK Panhandle where
the best mid level winds will reside during the evening resulting
in 30-35kts. Temperatures will be tricky with yesterdays rain and
depending on how far north the front gets. Went a few degrees
below guidance based on these factors...especially across
southeast zones.

For the weekend into next week...models continue to show upper
trough slowly deamplify with flow becoming more zonal towards
Sunday. Surface flow will continue to be favorable for some
moisture return through the early part of next week. Diurnally
driven thunderstorms are possible each afternoon for portions of
the area until models show upper ridge amplify Tuesday into
Wednesday as trough begins to dig in over PAC NW.


.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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