Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 011802
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1202 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

.AVIATION...18z Tafs

VFR conditions will prevail. Winds will remain fairly light out of a
general northeasterly direction. Cloud bases will begin to lower
and clouds will start to thicken up later in the TAF period.

Simpson
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 525 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR and light winds are expected for the next 24 hours at each
terminal. Winds are expected to remain at or below 10kt while
rotating clockwise around the dial from a westerly to easterly over
the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 456 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Satellite and water vapor imagery continues to show large scale
trough centered over the Great Lakes. We still feel the lingering
affects of the cold air from this trough, although most of the cold
air associated is now mainly over the Pacific northwest to the
northern plains and into the midwest. As for our area, we can expect
a mostly dry and zonal flow aloft that will persist through Friday
morning.

We are currently tracking a weather system that is expected to impact
the area on Friday and Saturday, with timing still a little
uncertain. This upper level low pressure system is currently over
the Gulf of Alaska and is expected to moved down the western Rockies
Thursday night into Friday. This will shift the flow aloft out of the
southwest by Friday afternoon. However low level winds are expected
to be out of the east northeast which favors upslope to the area. The
biggest issue that still remains is when the low tracks down, where
will it be centered and will it track so far down that it will become
cut-off from the cold airmass to the north. This will have
significant impacts as to whether or not we see snow or rain and now
we have to consider the slight possibility of freezing
precipitation. Unfortunately the models still struggle and the
confidence about 48 hours out is still uncertain. Current forecast
suggest about an inch or two of snow to the southwestern zones and
about a half an inch to an inch across the northern zones. Southeast
areas will likely just see rain.

If snow does occur on Saturday, the lifespan of it remaining on the
ground will be short lived. As the system exits to the east, we will
see a warm southwest flow with 850mb temperatures back to the 6-10C
range. Afternoon highs by Monday look to return to 50s.

Tuesday onward will be interesting as models are starting to hint at
another weather system that will be even stronger and if it brings
precipitation it definitely looks for now like it would be snow.
850mb temperatures have a drastic drop and cool off somewhere in the
-5 to -10C range. Current highs next Wednesday may not break
freezing for the OK Panhandle and could struggle to get into the mid
to upper 30s for the southern TX Panhandle.

Stay tuned for updates on potential for rain, snow, or mixed
precipitation this weekend and possible arctic intrusion mid next
week.

Weber

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

9/24



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