Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KAMA 262118
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
418 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE NEEDED. THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE ONCE AGAIN FORMED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THESE SHOULD DRIFT EAST REACHING THE NORTHWEST TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND LINGER INTO THE NIGHT ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE
NORTH OF THE AREA SO ORGANIZED STORMS ARE UNLIKELY. MODERATE
INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT BRIEF STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM SIMILAR
TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. ANY SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE
ISOLATED...BRIEF AND MARGINAL. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MAY SUPPORT PERSISTENCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN WILL CHANGE THIS COMING WEEK. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MEANWHILE THE PERSISTENT UPPER
RIDGE WILL FLATTENED AND RETROGRADE. A SHARPENING LEE SURFACE TROUGH
WILL ADVANCE OFF OF THE FRONT RANGE IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSING WAVE
AND SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY
MOIST NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW BEHIND THIS WEAKENING AND STALLING
COLD FRONT WILL BE IN PLACE. VEERING AND STRENGTHENING MEAN FLOW
SHOULD PROVIDE FAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES FOR DIURNAL OROGRAPHIC
CONVECTION TO PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA ON THE NORTH/NORTHEAST EDGE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD BE MOST
NUMEROUS ALONG AND BEHIND STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY WHERE DEEP MOIST
POOLING SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY. IN THIS PATTERN LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLOODING WOULD BE A CONCERN. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS DEEP
MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST AND SURFACE BOUNDARY DISSIPATES. SOME
UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST THOUGH
AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS NOT COMPLETELY IN AGREEMENT ON THE
GEOMETRY OF THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE AND THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                71  94  71  94  69 /   5   5   5  10  20
BEAVER OK                  73  98  74  97  69 /  30   5   5  20  30
BOISE CITY OK              69  97  68  92  65 /  40  10  10  20  30
BORGER TX                  73  97  74  96  72 /  10   5   5  10  20
BOYS RANCH TX              73  99  72  97  69 /  10   5   5  20  30
CANYON TX                  70  95  70  95  68 /   5   5   5  10  20
CLARENDON TX               72  96  71  96  71 /  10   5   5   5  10
DALHART TX                 69  98  69  95  67 /  20   5  10  30  40
GUYMON OK                  72  99  72  96  68 /  30   5   5  20  40
HEREFORD TX                70  95  69  95  68 /  10  10   5  10  20
LIPSCOMB TX                73  98  74  98  71 /  20   5   5  10  20
PAMPA TX                   72  94  70  94  68 /  10   5   5  10  20
SHAMROCK TX                73  97  72  97  70 /  10   0   0   5  10
WELLINGTON TX              74  98  73  98  71 /  10   0   0   0   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/17





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.