Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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508
FXUS64 KAMA 131155
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
555 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FOG SHOULD IMPACT THE GUYMON TAF
SITE THIS MORNING UNTIL AROUND 15Z OR 16Z TODAY. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL BECOME SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY 16Z TODAY AND
INCREASE TO SPEEDS AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BY 00Z SUNDAY 10 TO 15 KNOTS OR SO...THEN VEERING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST 5 TO 15 KNOTS BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TO
08Z SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH
AROUND 08Z TO 11Z SUNDAY INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS LIFT AT THE GUYMON TAF
SITE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THE
AMARILLO AND DALHART TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH MAINLY HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURES FROM EARLIER FORECAST.  DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH PERIODS OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT UNDERGOES A TEMPORARY FLATTENING TODAY...AND
THEN RESUMES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  MID-LEVEL RIDGE PASSES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
THURSDAY.  PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TROF THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY
EXPECTED TO BE FOLLOWED BY NEAR ZONAL FLOW.

DRY AIR IN LOWER LEVELS WILL NOT BE REPLENISHED BY GULF MOISTURE AS
OCCASIONAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES OCCUR.  DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...AND AROUND 20 OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS AS DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE.  LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS SUNDAY MORNING WILL
DIMINISH WHILE TRENDING TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.  LIGHT
NORTHWEST AND WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.  LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS
TUESDAY MORNING WILL TREND TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AS DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE.  CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLES
ON THURSDAY AS DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN FURTHER.  MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY MAY RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. 03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/3



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