Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 291118

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
618 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

12Z TAF Cycle

A frontal boundary located across the northern Texas Panhandle along
with a northwest flow allowing for an upper trough to approach the
Panhandles from the central Rockies by 00Z Saturday. Isolated to
scattered convection expected between 00Z and 08Z Saturday at all
three TAF sites and included a PROB30 group for the Guymon...Dalhart
and Amarillo TAF sites. VFR conditions expected except in and near
any convection where MVFR ceilings along with gusty and erratic winds
possible. Otherwise...mostly south and southeast winds 10 to 20 knots
through 12Z Saturday with northeast to east winds after 20Z today to
02Z Saturday 5 to 15 knots at the Guymon and Dalhart TAF sites behind
the frontal boundary.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 421 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016/

Showers and thunderstorms are currently pushing through portions
of the TX/OK Panhandles as a weak shortwave moves through the
downstream side of the desert SW upper ridge per water vapor
imagery. This upper level feature will continue southeast through
the early morning hours moving away from our zones by 15z. Fine
scale boundaries left over from this mornings convection along
with a lee low over the area will help aid in sfc moisture
convergence this afternoon and evening resulting in another round
of thunderstorms. The widest coverage of storms will largely
depend on where the stationary boundary resides at the time of max
insolation. Current thinking is somewhere along or just north of
the I-40 corridor. Once storms initiate... MLCAPE values of
1000-1500 J/kg and 25-35kts of effective bulk shear will be
sufficient for a few strong to low- end severe multicells and
perhaps some supercellular structures. Storms should push to the
southeast through the evening based on continued northwesterly
flow aloft. There is some uncertainty how long the clouds from
this mornings convection will linger...which may keep max temps
lower than guidance and reduce max buoyancy.

Going into Saturday...the upper level ridge continues slowly
pushing back eastward. Still think a few diurnally driven storms
could get into our western zones Saturday afternoon although there
is disagreement amongst the numerical guidance. Otherwise...the
rest of the weekend into next week looks mostly dry as the ridge
begins to amplify some and move over the Southern Plains. Our
western zones could see isolated storms towards the middle and end
of the week. Temperatures will be on the rise with many locations
approaching the triple digit mark by Monday and Tuesday.


.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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