Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 290458 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1158 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...IT REMAINS PROBLEMATIC AS TO THE EXTENT...TIMING
...AND LOCATION OF ADDITIONAL TSTMS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
MOST MODELS SUGGEST NRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE THE PRIMARY
TARGET. DECIDED TO INSERT VCTS FROM 09Z TO 15Z AT KGUY AND KDHT...AND
OMITTED THIS ELEMENT FROM KAMA. EXPECT A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION
LATE TUE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MOST MODELS SUGGEST NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA AROUND 00Z WED...AND
HAVE INSERTED VCTS AT ALL TERMINAL SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SOME
CONCERN FOR MVFR CIGS DURG THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BUT DID RETAIN A SCT MVFR DECK AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXTENT...TIMING...
AND LOCATION OF ADDITIONAL TSTMS FOR LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. NRN ZONES APPEAR TO BE THE MOST LIKELY TARGET COMPARED TO
SRN TX PNHDL. HOWEVER...WHETHER OR NOT ANY TERMINAL SITE WILL BE
IMPACTED BY THIS EXPECTED NEXT ROUND OF TSTMS REMAINS TO BE SEEN.
RATHER THAN SMATTER THE TAFS WITH LONG HOURS OF TSTMS...HAVE DECIDED
TO OMIT THIS WEATHER ELEMENT FROM THIS TAF FCST CYCLE. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS THIS EVENING...WITH AMENDMENTS PSBL IF
WARRANTED.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE CHANGE TO WETTER AND COOLER WEATHER IS WELL UNDERWAY TODAY.
STRONGER CONVECTION THAT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING HAS
PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE AREA...LEAVING THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE AREA
WORKED OVER. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED TEMPS FROM CLIMBING
MUCH OUT OF THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THESE PARAMETERS...CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION HAS INCREASED OVER THE AREA AND THUS EXPECT A GENERAL
DOWNTREND IN CONVECTION DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...OUTSIDE OF THE LIGHT SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. NWP MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
MOVING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. MOIST UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND
MONSOONAL MOISTURE ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BRING THE RISK FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS. DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE CONVECTION
THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER TODAY PRODUCED SPOTTY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
0.50-1.50 INCHES WHILE THERE WAS A GOOD PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER LEADING
UP TO TODAYS RAINFALL.

EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TUESDAY MORNING AND MUCH
LIKE TODAY...WITH A LULL IN COVERAGE BY THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER SINCE A
CONTINUED FETCH OF ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA...WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE AREA.
SHOULD SEE IN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD LATE
TUESDAY EVENING AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE AN MCS WITH
THIS UPPER WAVE WHERE IT WILL SLIDE OVER THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BEFORE HEADING INTO
OKLAHOMA EARLY WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL IS VERY LIKELY WITH THIS
COMPLEX OF STORMS AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH VERY WELL MAY BE NEEDED.
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND ANTICIPATED PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD HIGH
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.

LONG TERM...
THE UPPER WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH MOIST UPSLOPE POST FRONTAL SURFACE FLOW WILL
HELP TO GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MAY BE LOWERED AS RAIN COOLED AIR AND THICK
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT HIGHS IN THE 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. CONFIDENCE
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOWERS TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK AS WHILE THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
LATE IN THE WEEK...SURFACE RIDGING SUGGESTS A DRYING TREND ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND LIGHT NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW
WILL ALLOW THESE STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER FLOW WILL VEER OUT OF THE
NORTH BY SUNDAY...KEEPING ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO OUR WEST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES /WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE 80S/ WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE
WESTWARD PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$






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