000
FXUS64 KAMA 130114 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
814 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN CO AND SOUTHWESTERN KS. CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS INDICATE STORMS TRAINING NORTH OF THE OK PANHANDLE...ALTHOUGH
AS THIS FRONT MOVES SOUTH LATER TONIGHT /POSSIBLY AIDED BY OUTFLOW
FROM CURRENT CONVECTION/...POSSIBLE FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP
FURTHER SOUTH. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE HAS INCREASED /PER 00Z KAMA
SOUNDING/ AND THIS IS ALSO INDICATED ON CURRENT WV SATELLITE IMAGERY
WITH THE PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE BENDING BACK EAST TOWARD THE
WESTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES. SEVERAL OF THE MOST RECENT HIGH RES MODELS
RUNS LARGELY KEEP ANY PRECIP NORTH OF THE AMA CWA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT SOME STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF A DALHART
TO GUYMON LINE TONIGHT. REMAINDER OF THE INHERITED FORECAST IS ON
TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/SKY COVER/AND DEW POINTS MADE.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE VALID TAF FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH CLOUD DECKS WILL
LOWER/THICKEN BY AROUND 18Z SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG A
KHJH TO KHLC TO KLAA LINE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH WHERE IT WILL
MOVE THROUGH KDHT AND KGUY BY 15-16Z. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG
SOUTH WHERE IT WILL PUSH THROUGH KAMA BY 18Z. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS
FRONT COMBINED WITH INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CAN LEAD TO
SCATTERED TSRA. HOWEVER WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF TSRA. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS AT AROUND 10 KTS.

CLK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY EXPECT STORMS TO FORM ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NEW
MEXICO/SOUTHERN COLORADO AND TRY TO WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE
PANHANDLES AGAIN TODAY. BUT AT THIS POINT DO NOT THINK THE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE ORGANIZATION TO STAY TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO INVADE THE
PANHANDLES. THE REST OF TODAY INTO TOMORROW MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE
LAST LITTLE BIT OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE OUT PATTERN CHANGES
DRAMATICALLY HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.

WITH A UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND  WITH
RIDGING OUT OVER SIN CITY, COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE LEAVES
US IN A NICE POSITION TO RECEIVE RAINFALL NEXT WEEK. STARTING ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA. CHANCE
THAT THE COLD FRONT PROVIDES ENOUGH LIFT TO SEE STORMS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE FRONT, BUT STILL THINK BEST CHANCES ARE IN THE
NORTHWEST PANHANDLES.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...STORMS WILL BE IN THE AREA BUT THE QUESTION OF
WHERE EXACTLY THEY WILL FORM REMAINS TO BE SEEN. THINK SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WITH THE NORTH AND WESTERN AREAS IN THE BEST LOCATION TO RECEIVE THE
MOST COVERAGE.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE WHEN MOST LOCATIONS
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO RECEIVE HEAVY RAIN JUST NORTH OF A
STATIONARY FRONT STALLED OUT ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME PWATS
WILL BE WELL OVER AN INCH AND OVER 1.5 INCHES IN SOME AREA. REALLY
THINK THIS IS THE TIME FRAME FOR THE HEAVIEST FOR STORMS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THIS RAINFALL COUPLED WITH THE
MOSTLY CLOUDY/OVERCAST SKIES WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO ONLY REACH
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE AREA.

WE LOOK TO DRY OUT SOMEWHAT STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHUNTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA. RAIN CHANCES ARE STILL POSSIBLE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/LOCATION ARE LOW AS WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE
RAIN EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL IMPACT CHANCES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

05/15