Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 261128

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
528 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017


For the 12 TAFs:
VFR conditions will prevail at the terminals throughout the valid
TAF period. Light and variable winds will be realized through
this period as well with mostly clear skies. There could be some
10K foot ceilings around briefly, but it appears this should be
limited to KAMA at this time.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 413 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017/

Surface low over eastern New Mexico with a frontal boundary
extending from the surface low southeast to along the Red River
Valley. Surface ridge will build into the Panhandles today
resulting in light winds. A surface trough will also extend from
the surface low northeast across the northern portions of the
forecast area today. Surface low and associated surface trough then
forecast to develop and deepen Monday to the lee of the central
and southern Rockies resulting in increasing southwesterly winds.
Surface low to track south into southeastern Colorado or
northeastern New Mexico Tuesday with a cold front extending east
across southwestern Kansas or the Oklahoma Panhandle by late
Tuesday. High level cloudiness will rapidly increase Tuesday as an
upper trough approaches from the western states and Rockies.
Upper trough to track east across the Panhandles Tuesday night
into early Wednesday with the cold front pushing south across the
forecast area Tuesday night.

Although short range and medium range models still forecasting
some light precip mainly over the extreme northern Panhandles,
models have backed off significantly on precip and mainly confined
to the extreme northwest or northern portions of the forecast
area late Tuesday. Decided to back off on precip Tuesday night
with mainly light rain over the far northwestern Panhandles
Tuesday afternoon. The dry air mass in place should not allow for
much or any precip to reach the ground. Patchy blowing dust may be
possible Tuesday afternoon across southwest and south central
Texas Panhandle. Surface high pressure to build into the
Panhandles Wednesday with dry and much cooler conditions expected.
Surface high shifts east and south away from the Panhandles
during the latter half of the week as surface low pressure
develops and deepens by Thursday and Friday. Another cold front to
push south into the forecast area Thursday which could stall
Friday. Warmer and windy conditions Friday and Saturday and
continued dry.


No elevated or critical fire weather conditions are expected today
due to light winds.

Southwest winds are expected to increase by Monday afternoon into
the 15 to 25 mph or 20 to 30 mph range with gusts to near 35 to 40
mph as surface low pressure to the lee of the central and southern
Rockies develops and deepens during the day. Minimum afternoon
relative humidities will mainly range from around 10 to 20
percent across the Panhandles Monday afternoon. Opted to issue a
Fire Weather Watch across mainly the western Texas Panhandle
Monday afternoon into early Monday evening where higher confidence
expected of 20 foot wind speeds and minimum afternoon relative
humidities meeting criteria.

High level cloudiness is expected to increase on Tuesday with
skies mostly cloudy to cloudy through the day. These high clouds
could put a damper on wind speeds and relative humidities by
inhibiting a strong mixing process to take place. A deep surface
low will move to near northeast New Mexico or extreme southeastern
Colorado Tuesday afternoon with a cold front near southwestern
Kansas or the Oklahoma Panhandle by late Tuesday. Still expect
downsloping 20 foot southwesterly winds to increase to around 25
to 40 mph with gusts to near 50 to 60 mph Tuesday afternoon.
Although the 20 foot winds may be less than forecast, still should
be strong enough to meet wind speed criteria for critical fire
weather conditions. However, relative humidities may only fall to
near 15 percent to around 20 percent due to the thick high level
cloudiness. Decided to hold off for now on a Fire Weather Watch
for Tuesday, although elevated to critical will still be possible.

Elevated and/or critical fire weather conditions will also be
possible Wednesday and Friday.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for the following zones: Dallam...Deaf Smith...Hartley...



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