Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 270546

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1246 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

For 06z TAFs... Isolated thunderstorms have developed in Hartley
County, southwest of KDHT. Right now it appears KDHT will not be
impacted but will be monitoring closely over next hour or so.
Storm motion suggest these might approach KAMA in a few hours
which could affect local winds and cigs/vsbys. Will be monitoring
for possible amendments. Overall, except for any local reductions
in cigs/vsbys due to these thunderstorms, VFR conditions should
prevail. Winds will be southerly at around 10 knots switching to
southwesterly at 15-25 knots Tuesday afternoon. Thunderstorms may
approach our western zones again Tuesday evening, but confidence
not high enough to include in TAFs at this time.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 527 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017/

Low confidence forecast for the 00Z TAF issuance due to convection
during the first 6 hours. Have held off on including chance for
convection at KGUY as storm motions should keep ongoing convection
just west of the terminals. Have gone ahead and included a tempo
group for both KAMA and KDHT as they will have the greater chance
for being impacted by storms this evening. Should any convection
impact the terminals directly then expect low
ceilings/visibilities as well as the possibility of erratic
strong winds and large hail.

Once convection moves should of the terminals expect winds to
remain light from the south until increasing tomorrow midday.
Gusts may reach towards the 30kt mark.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 437 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017/

Temps this afternoon rose closer to feeling more like a summer
day with the Panhandles reaching 80s and a spot or two hitting 90
so far. The 80s were feeling pretty good with the almost calm
winds and humidity only in the 30s for most. This weather won`t
last forever though as storms are already firing up off the
mountains in New Mexico and are heading this direction. The area
will see another chance for showers and thunderstorms tonight
depending on how far these storms make it. Storms could again
become strong to severe, with the greater likelihood for severe
storms to be in the western Panhandles. CAPE values are decent but
shear is not as good as yesterday; although still decent for
making storms.

Short range models continue to dry things out tomorrow so have
finally pulled all pops from the area. With more clearing and
breezy winds, temps Tuesday will be in the low 90s. Summer temps
will continue on Wednesday and Thursday into the upper 90s to
100s as zonal flow takes over aloft and downsloping heats the air.
Reprieve from the hot weather will come by week`s end as upper
level troughing crosses the northern central Plains and shifts the
area back into northwest flow. This will also bring precip chances
back, mainly from Friday night through Sunday.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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