Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 232205
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
405 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

.DISCUSSION...
The backdoor front has left the eastern zones today in cloud cover
and temps in the 30s. Meanwhile, those that saw the sun in the
west were able to make it into the 50s and 60s. The rest of the
week will see 50s and 60s. Those in the central to east will have
a chance at drizzle to freezing drizzle tonight with the front.
Models were split on whether the sounding would fall all below the
freezing line or just warmer than it. The mid-level longwave
trough is currently over the Great Basin region and will push east
to pass near the area on Saturday. This will bring a cold front
to the area with gusty winds. Sunday will see a quick shortwave
push through which will bring more breezy winds. The beginning of
the workweek will see lee-side troughing and temps increase into
the 60s and more breezy to windy conditions with the downsloping
air. By mid-week the next longwave trough is progged to close off
and bowling ball towards the area. Models are again somewhat split
whether it will slide south or north of the area. If south, we
will miss most of the precip; however, if north, we may see some.
For now, have stuck mostly with the blend which leaves us mostly
dry until models get more consensus.

Beat

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be possible
Saturday through Monday, and then elevated conditions will be
possible Tuesday and Wednesday.

For Saturday: RFTI values are expected to be 1-2 in the OK
Panhandle and 2-4 for the TX Panhandle with 3-4 in the western TX
Panhandle. RH values will range from 10 to 15 in the southwestern
1/3 of the area and increasing to the northeast. 20 ft winds will
be 20 to 35 mph with gusts 40 to 50 mph. Winds will be turning
from westerly to northwesterly.

For Sunday: RFTI values drop back to 0-1 with a spot of 2 in the
far southwest TX Panhandle. RH values across the area drop to 12
to 17 percent. Winds will be 15 to 25 mph from the west to
northwest.

For Monday: RFTI values come up again to 1-4 with 3-4 in the
northwestern area. Minimum RH values will be 9-15 percent across
the area. Winds will be southwesterly at 15-25 mph.

By Tuesday & Wednesday: RFTI values drop back to 0-2 for the area
with 1-2 remaining only in western zones. RH values will be 11-20
in the west on Tuesday and 16-20 in the west on Wednesday. Winds
will be southwesterly at 10-20 Tuesday and turn westerly to
northwesterly Wednesday at 15-25 mph.

Beat

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                34  53  24  56  25 /   5   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  32  48  18  56  21 /  20   5   0   0   0
Boise City OK              28  47  19  51  21 /  10   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  37  54  27  58  27 /  10   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              34  55  22  56  22 /   5   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  36  55  23  57  23 /   5   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               34  58  26  61  26 /  20   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 30  53  19  53  20 /   5   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  31  47  21  54  22 /  20   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                35  55  23  56  22 /   5   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                34  52  22  58  21 /  20   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   34  54  24  56  24 /  10   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                35  61  25  62  25 /  20   5   0   0   0
Wellington TX              35  64  27  66  28 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
     evening for the following zones: Armstrong...Dallam...Deaf
     Smith...Hartley...Oldham...Potter...Randall.

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
     evening for the following zones: Cimarron.


&&

$$

11/16



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