000
FXUS64 KAMA 111753 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1253 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. ALSO REMOVED OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
AND NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE COUNTIES FROM THE RED
FLAG WARNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO INCREASED OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAFS/
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE 18Z TAF FORECAST AS WIND
GUSTS AND BLOWING DUST APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES.

NORTHWEST TO MOSTLY NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 50KTS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH 06Z. AN AVIATION WEATHER
WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1AM.

THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTH...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
WITH ANY BLDU THAT OCCURS...VISIBILITIES WILL DECREASE AND COULD DROP
SIGNIFICANTLY. AS AN EXAMPLE...PERRYTON, TEXAS IS CURRENTLY REPORTING
1 3/4SM. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER 06Z WITH GUSTS
STILL UP TO 30KTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

KNS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN FOR AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
DALHART TO CANADIAN WHICH IS SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PANHANDLES.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...RH VALUES HAVE BEEN ABLE TO RECOVER THUS CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER ANTICIPATED AND THE RED FLAG
WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AS WELL
AS SHERMAN...HANSFORD..OCHILTREE...AND LIPSCOMB COUNTIES. A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT HAS REPLACED THE CANCELLED RED FLAG WARNING FOR
THESE COUNTIES.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL REMAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
AS THE COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH...THE COUNTIES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES INCREASE BUT WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AS
WELL. THE WORST CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE THE LOWEST RH VALUES WILL
RESIDE (COUPLED WITH STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE).

KNS/JJ

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH MID TO UPPER 70S
AND A FEW 80S EXPECTED. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND FAR NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE
INCREASED 1 TO 3 DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPECTING TOO MUCH MORE OF AN INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THESE AREAS.

ALL OTHER WEATHER PARAMETERS WERE TWEAKED BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

CLK/KNS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014/

FIRE WEATHER...
BIG CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IS ON FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. DUE TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH, OVERNIGHT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES WERE VERY POOR FOR LOCATIONS ON THE CAPROCK WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ONLY CLIMBING UP TO 35%. SEVERAL LOCATIONS EVEN
STAYED BELOW 30% ALL NIGHT. RECOVERIES WERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES WHERE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES RANGED BETWEEN 50 AND 80%. WHAT THIS ESSENTIALLY
MEANS IS THAT FINE FUEL MOISTURE NEVER HAD A CHANCE TO MOISTEN AT ALL
FOR MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE
TO REMAIN VERY LOW FOR MUCH OF THE DAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH LATER TODAY. SPEAKING OF THE COLD FRONT, IT CURRENTLY
STRETCHES FROM NEAR HILL CITY, KS TO GARDEN CITY, KS TO SPRINGFIELD,
CO. THIS FRONT WILL ENTER OUR FORECAST AREA AFTER 11 AM, AND MOVE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

APPROXIMATE COLD FRONT TIMING:
GUYMON: 1 PM
DALHART AND PERRYTON: 1-2 PM
DUMAS, BORGER, AND PAMPA: 3-4 PM
AMARILLO: 4-5 PM
SHAMROCK: 5-6 PM
HEREFORD: 6-7 PM

ONE OF THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARKS IS HOW STRONG WINDS WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. RAW RUC AND NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
MARGINAL WINDS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN OUR AREA. HOWEVER, PREFER
THE HIGHER MET AND MAV WINDS (WHICH IS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST) AS
MOS GUIDANCE TENDS TO DO RELATIVELY WELL ON THESE DOWNSLOPE WIND
DAYS. WILL LEAVE THE RED FLAG WARNING IN TACT, BUT OUR HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE FOR SEEING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE SOUTH
OF A CLAYTON TO CANADIAN LINE.

THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE OF FUEL MOISTURE OVER THE LAST MONTH IS
CLEARLY SEEN IN TEXAS FOREST SERVICE ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT (ERC)
DATA. AFTER LAST WEEK`S MOISTURE, WE HAVE QUICKLY DRIED OUT AGAIN. IN
FACT, FORECAST ERC VALUES TODAY ARE 67 AT BOOTLEG, 62 AT CEDAR, AND
60 AT WHEELER. THESE VALUES ARE GETTING VERY CLOSE TO THE 90%
PERCENTILE, AT WHICH LOCAL RESEARCH SUGGESTS SIGNIFICANT FIRE
POTENTIAL BECOMES AN INCREASING CONCERN. WITH THESE DRYING FUELS AND
A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, IT`S NOT A BIG
SURPRISE THAT WE SAW A SLIGHT UPTICK IN INITIAL ATTACK ACTIVITY
YESTERDAY. TFS SIGNIFICANT FIRE POTENTIAL MATRICES SHOW A MODERATE TO
NEAR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FIRE TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE AXIS OF A BROAD 850 MB THERMAL
RIDGE WILL STRETCH FROM NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS. THE ALIGNMENT OF THE STRONGEST
LOW-/MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL GENERALLY OCCUR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS
AXIS. IT IS ALSO IN THESE LOCATIONS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WHICH ALSO SUPPORTS HIGHER FIRE DANGER PER
LOCAL RESEARCH. THEREFORE, BASED ON FUELS AND WEATHER, THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES (AND THEY ARE STILL ON THE LOW SIDE) OF SIGNIFICANT
FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF A HEREFORD TO
HAPPY LINE. DESPITE THIS, FIRE OFFICIALS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS
SHOULD REMAIN ON HEIGHTENED ALERT, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY
(GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH) BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL BE OF UTMOST IMPORTANCE IN THE EVENT OF ANY FIRE
STARTS OR ONGOING FIRES BEFORE THEN!

JACKSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...WEST WINDS INITIALLY THIS MORNING WILL VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND INCREASE TO 20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS
OF 30-35 KTS. A COLD FRONT WILL WORK SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT AND
INCREASING TO NEAR 35 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 KTS POSSIBLE. SOME
VSBY REDUCTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM BLDU BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF ANY BLDU...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. AN AVIATION WEATHER WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR KAMA FROM 22Z
TODAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY FOR THE STRONG WINDS.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WYOMING NOW WILL ELONGATE AND
SPLIT AS IT DIVES SOUTH THROUGH COLORADO AND KANSAS TODAY. A
POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL BLAST ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS VERY TIGHT BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
WYOMING BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BRING NORTH WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MILES
AN HOUR ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WITH GUST TO AROUND 60 MILES AN HOUR
IN SOME SPOTS. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND TURNED THE HIGH WIND WATCH INTO
A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. ONLY THE FAR EAST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL BE IN A WIND ADVISORY. BLOWING
DUST MAY ALSO REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO ONE MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE MET ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO 15 PERCENT OR BELOW AHEAD
AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE WIND SHIFT AND SUDDEN INCREASE
IN THE WIND WILL ALSO CAUSE UNPREDICTABLE FIRE BEHAVIOR SHOULD A
FIRE START.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SHOULD BE BELOW 20 MPH
BY MID MORNING ON WEDNESDAY.

THE MODELS STILL WANT TO PAINT SOME VERY LIGHT QPF...MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CWA...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY AS IT LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE PANHANDLES WILL ARRIVE BY THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTHEAST ON THE EAST SIDE
OF A WEST COAST RIDGE AND IT INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. AGAIN...THE MODELS WANT CHANGE THEIR TUNE
SINCE IT IS A NEW DAY. THEREFORE...WILL NOT INSERT ANY PRECIP FOR
LATE NEXT WEEKEND AT THIS TIME.

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES TODAY AND THIS EVENING. LOWEST AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GET DOWN INTO THE 5 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
START TO RECOVER SOME BEHIND A COLD ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY MID AFTERNOON...
BUT WINDS WILL BE INCREASING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SO ANY
ONGOING FIRES COULD HAVE ERRATIC BEHAVIOR DUE TO THE SHIFTING
WINDS WITH THE FRONT.

WINDS WILL DECREASE SLOWLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEY
WILL BE BELOW 15 MPH BY AROUND MID MORNING ON WEDNESDAY.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CARSON...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...GRAY...HANSFORD...
     HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...
     OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF
     SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...
     MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...WHEELER.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARMSTRONG...COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...HEMPHILL...WHEELER.

OK...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

KNS/CLK/JJ