Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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256
FXUS64 KAMA 030953
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
453 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL QUICKLY SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS TROUGH WILL FORCE A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE PANHANDLES TODAY.
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
CLOSE TO NOON.  THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW BEFORE HEIGHTS RISE WHERE
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OR SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. OVERALL 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES NEAR 30KTS AND A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE COULD BE REALIZED DURING PEAK HEATING IF CLOUD
COVER DOESN`T GET THERE FIRST.  HOWEVER...MOST INSTABILITY WOULD
LIKELY BE MORE ELEVATED IN NATURE AND OUTSIDE OF MAYBE A STRONG
STORM OR TWO THINK SEVERE THREAT IS MINIMAL.

HEIGHTS CONTINUE RISING MIDWEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS TO OUR
WEST AND GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD.  TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN CLOSER
TO NORMAL OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL (UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S). SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE PLAINS UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN LEESIDE
TROUGHING STARTS TO DEVELOP.  ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES THURSDAY. GUIDANCE VARIED
QUITE A BIT ON DEWPOINTS AS TO HOW FAR AND HOW MUCH DRIER AIR COULD
FILTER IN...SO IT WOULDN`T BE OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BECOME MORE LIKELY AS WE GET CLOSER.


&&

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY CONTINUES THE WARM AND TRY TREND FOR THE PANHANDLES. WITH THAT
BEING SAID, AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST OF THE PANHANDLES. THIS COULD OPEN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CORNERS
UP TO A COUPLE OF STORMS COMING OFF THE NEW MEXICO MOUNTAINS. HAVE
HELD OFF ON INSERTING THESE CHANCES DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

THE WEEKEND REMAINS THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR THE AREA TO SEE PRECIP
CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. A CUT OFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL HAVE A
LITTLE DIFFICULTY ON TIMING EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
CLOSED LOW. THESE DIFFERENCES WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT  IMPACTS ON THE
DURATION, TIMING, AND STRENGTH OF OUR STORMS. THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS
HAS A FASTER TIMING ON THE SHORTWAVES WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR TWO ROUND
OF PRECIP, ONE ON SATURDAY DAYTIME AND ANOTHER OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THE LESS AGGRESSIVE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE SHORTWAVE
WHICH RESULTS IN SLOWER INITIATION OF STORMS (SATUDAY EVENING) WITH
CHANCES LINGERING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES,
BOTH SHOW THAT THE FIRST ROUND/SATURDAY STORMS PRESENT THE GREATEST
RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 TO 50KTS
AND CAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG. THE SEVERITY OF THE SECOND ROUND OF
CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE LOW.

BY MONDAY THE PANHANDLES ENDS UP IN THE DRYSLOT OF THE UPPER LOW TO
BRING RAIN CHANCES TO AN END. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE
THE PANHANDLES ON TUESDAY TO BRING SOME COOLER WEATHER FOR THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                69  43  77  47  84 /  20   5   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  70  43  79  46  88 /  10   5   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              66  40  75  42  84 /  10   0   0   0   5
BORGER TX                  71  47  80  50  86 /  20   5   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              70  42  79  45  87 /  10   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  70  41  79  44  85 /  30   5   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               71  45  77  50  83 /  30   5   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 69  40  76  43  83 /  10   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  70  44  78  46  87 /  10   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                71  42  78  45  86 /  20   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                71  45  78  48  87 /  20   5   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   70  45  76  49  86 /  20   5   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                72  46  79  49  83 /  30   5   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              73  46  80  49  83 /  30   5   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

18/14



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