Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 151113

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
513 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018


For the 12Z TAFs:

There should be a brief period of IFR conditions then MVFR for the
remainder of the morning. By late morning/early afternoon
ceilings should lift to above 3000 feet. Overall, its going to be
a cloudy day today with IFR/MVFR conditions to start much of this
TAF cycle. There is a small chance for precipitation but decided
to leave this out given the chances are low at this time to impact
the terminals. Surface obs up stream are not getting much in the
realm of precipitation. Another noteworthy item is the chance for
some low level wind shear this morning as a low level jet streams
over the Panhandles this morning around 1500 feet at 50-55 knots.
Left this out as well given its marginal with surface winds
breezy today. There also isn`t much direction shear as the jet
seems likely to parallel surface winds this morning from the



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 351 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018/


Closed upper low over the upper Midwest today will allow for a
backdoor cold front to surge south and west this morning across
the Panhandles. Northeast and north winds will increase to around
15 to 25 mph with higher gusts with low cloudiness advecting in
behind the frontal boundary. Light snow or flurries will accompany
the low clouds behind the frontal boundary this morning through
early this evening with the greatest probability mainly across the
western Oklahoma and northwest Texas Panhandles today into this
evening before ending later tonight. Any accumulations will mainly
be confined to the northwest portions of the Panhandles where
between a half inch and inch will be possible and from a trace to
less than a half inch elsewhere. The northeast and north winds
will diminish after sunset this evening with speeds dropping below
10 mph after 06Z Tuesday. Skies are expected to clear by sunrise
Tuesday with wind chills dropping below -5 degrees mainly across
the Oklahoma and northern half of the Texas Panhandles. As wind
speeds are not forecast to be 10 mph or higher later tonight and
Tuesday morning, it is not likely that a Wind Chill Advisory will
be needed. However, should winds remain at or above 10 mph through
the night into Tuesday morning, cannot rule out that later shifts
may need to issue an Advisory.

Gradual moderating trend and dry Tuesday through the end of the
week until another cold front pushes through the Panhandles
Saturday night and Sunday morning. Developing surface low pressure
to the lee of the Rockies the end of the week will begin to deepen
Friday afternoon and Saturday. Downsloping southwesterly winds
will increase to around 15 to 20 mph Friday and 15 to 25 mph
Saturday with higher gusts with max temps some 15 to 20 degrees or
more above normal Friday and Saturday. Some precip will be
possible with the frontal passage mainly across the northern and
eastern Panhandles Saturday night.



Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible Friday afternoon
mainly across the southwestern and south central Texas Panhandle
as minimum relative humidities fall to around 15 to 20 percent
and downsloping southwesterly 20 foot winds increase to around 15
to 20 mph with higher gusts. Elevated fire weather conditions on
Saturday will be more marginal as minimum afternoon humidities are
only expected to fall to around 20 to 25 percent while downsloping
southwesterly 20 foot winds increase to 15 to 25 mph with higher
gusts across the western and portions of the central Panhandles.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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