Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 280336 AAB
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1036 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

.AVIATION...
Thunderstorms should be south of the AMA TAF site by 06z, so will not
mention any more TSRA at any of the TAF sites tonight. Skies should
remain VFR. GUY may have a chance of low clouds toward sunrise, but
confidence is not high enough to put them in at this point. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible Thursday afternoon, but confidence in
them affecting any one TAF site is low, so will leave the mention of
them out of this forecast. Winds will remain light outside of
thunderstorms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 557 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016/

AVIATION...
A cluster of showers and thunderstorms continue to move south out of
Colorado and Kansas toward the GUY and DHT TAF sites, so have added a
tempo group there for thunderstorms with gusty winds this evening.
AMA should remain thunderstorm free tonight. Skies will remain VFR
and winds will remain light outside of thunderstorms. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible again Thursday afternoon, but
confidence in any one of these storms affecting a TAF site is low
right now, so will not mention any Thursday afternoon thunderstorms
at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 456 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
An upper level ridge of high pressure situated over the srn Great
Basin and an upper level trof of low pressure across the ecntrl and
ern states will persist through Saturday night, with the fcst area in
nw flow aloft, which is favorable for steering storms from sern CO
and nern NM into our area. Have gone with slgt chc to chc pops
tonight through Saturday night across most of the area. Some storms
durg this time period may become strong, with gusty winds and small
hail the primary hazards. In addition, heavy rainfall will likely
accompany the strongest storms, and may lead to localized flooding or
flash flooding.

The upper level ridge of high pressure is then progged to expand
north and east again beginning Sunday and continuing thru the middle
of next week. This will result in a general drying trend with any
threat for showers and tstms confined to mainly wrn zones by next
Tuesday and Wednesday. Numerical weather models are in general
agreement with the overall upper air pattern and were accepted.

Andrade

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

15/10



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