000
FXUS64 KAMA 091722 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1122 AM CST MON DEC 9 2013

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER, THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF -SN AND MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
20Z, BUT CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS FAR TOO LOW TO MENTION.

JACKSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CST MON DEC 9 2013/

AVIATION...
ECHOES CURRENTLY DETECTED BY KAMA 88D REVEAL POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA...WITH RADAR TRENDS INDICATING
LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION AT TERMINALS.  MID-LEVEL
OVERCAST WILL PREVAIL TODAY...WITH NO MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS
EXPECTED.  NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS TODAY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15
KT.  STRONG DOWNWARD MOTIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH
PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TROF...RESULTING IN A CLEAR SKY...LIGHT WESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS...AND NO OVERNIGHT FOG.  VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT
24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CST MON DEC 9 2013/

DISCUSSION...
ONE MORE COLD DAY WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TODAY...BEFORE THE
WARMING TREND COMMENCES TUESDAY.

AFTER BEING TEASED BY A SHORTLIVED REPRIEVE FROM THE ARCTIC AIR ON
SUNDAY...THE FRONT HAS PUSHED BACK SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLES USHERING
BACK IN THE COLD AIR. HOWEVER...THICKENING MID CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
UT HAVE PREVENTED TEMPS FROM TANKING...WITH 4 AM READINGS MAINLY IN
THE TEENS WITH A FEW LOWER 20S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE.
LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS OF GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH ARE KEEPING
WIND CHILLS ABOVE ZERO...WHICH IS A SMALL VICTORY AS OF LATE. SEEING
SOME WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT HAVE YET TO SEE ANY GROUND
TRUTH OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES...SUGGESTING THESE RETURNS ARE
MAINLY PICKING UP THE MID CLOUDS/SNOW SUBLIMATING BEFORE REACHING
THE GROUND AS LOW-LEVELS ARE STILL FAIRLY DRY.

AS MENTIONED...IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD ONE TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE 20S...AND MAYBE NOT EVEN THAT IN PARTS OF THE WESTERN OK
PANHANDLE/NORTHWEST TX PANHANDLE. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE
LIGHT SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO DIVE EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH THE RRQ OF A 140+ KT
UPPER JET ALSO SLIDING OVER THE AREA...PROVIDING INCREASED DYNAMIC
FORCING WHILE ALSO INDUCING SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. EXPECT THIS
FORCING TO BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES OUT OF THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS. HOWEVER...A LACK OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH A FAIRLY
QUICK SHOT OF THE STRONGER FORCING IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ANY
ACCUMULATIONS BELOW AN INCH AND LIKELY LESS THAN A HALF INCH IN MOST
LOCATIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STRUGGLE TO EVER FULLY SATURATE THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER...AND IF THEY DO...IT/S ONLY FOR A BRIEF TIME. COULD SEE A
FEW FLURRIES LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE CLEARING OUT PRETTY
QUICKLY THIS EVENING PER STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS FORECAST TO
FALL INTO THE 5-15F RANGE. DESPITE LIGHT WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 MPH
AGAIN TONIGHT...WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS.

THE UPPER FLOW WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...INDUCING LEE SURFACE TROUGHING. RESULTANT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL HELP TO WARM TEMPS BACK INTO THE 40S. A PROGRESSIVE
CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PANHANDLES TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT
WON/T BE NEARLY AS STRONG...BUT WILL KNOCK HIGHS BACK INTO THE 30S ON
WEDNESDAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT. AFTER THIS
TEMPORARY BLIP IN THE WARM-UP...THINGS GET BACK ON TRACK BY
THURSDAY. WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW
OVER THE SOUTHWEST...WHILE SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW RETURNS AS WELL
BETWEEN A NEWLY-DEVELOPED LEE TROUGH AND A SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTING
EAST OUT OF THE AREA. AS THIS UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND WORKS EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME PRECIP MAINLY FOR THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES. HOWEVER...BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO BE TO OUR EAST
SO HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. TEMPS ALOFT WARM
SIGNIFICANTLY...SO IF ANY PRECIP DOES OCCUR...IT LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD
BE RAIN OR LIGHT FZRA DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. A WEEK COLD FRONT
DUE IN FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF TEMPS FOR SATURDAY
BEFORE THEY BOUNCE BACK ON SUNDAY AS LEE TROUGHING BENEATH A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SWINGS WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST ONCE
AGAIN.

KB

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

KS/JJ