287
FXUS64 KAMA 231924
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
224 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...
A high amplitude upper level low pressure feature in-conjunction
with a surface cold front will dictate our weather pattern as we go
through Sunday morning. The main surface cold front back to the west
of the Panhandles is working its way slowly to the east. As it does
so, mesoanalysis data does show CAPE near 1000 J/kg along with bulk
shear 30-40 kts out ahead of the front. However, with the loss of daytime
heating along the front with weak sfc-700 hPa baroclinicity,
convection could be limited as shown with the latest hi-res model
runs.

As we go into the day on Saturday, the main cold front will
continue to move slowly to the east. Some of the latest 23/12Z model
runs suggests that the cold front progression may become stationary
as we go later on in the afternoon. This will set up distinct
isodrosotherms with values in the 40s in the western Panhandles
behind the front and mid 60s ahead of the front in the eastern
Panhandles. The upper level dynamics set up shows a weak 250 hPa jet
core sets up SW to NE just northeast of the Panhandles with our
region in some favorable jet dynamics along with strong northerly 500
hPa winds upstream of the main trough axis to our west by Saturday
morning. These strong 500 hPa winds will help elongated a strip of
PVA upstream of the main trough axis to further amplify the positive
tilt of the main trough across New Mexico. 500 hPa temperatures
Saturday afternoon will also range from -8C to -11C. This upper level
combination along with the surface features associated with the front
will provide the best chances of thunderstorms along and out ahead of
the cold front across the eastern Panhandles. A few of these storms
could be strong if all the synoptic and dynamics set up come together
during the peak of daytime heating. The main cold front should slowly
continue to drift to the southeast as we go from Saturday night into
Sunday morning. More rain showers and some thunderstorms will
continue into Sunday morning along the front with the best chances in
the southern and southeastern TX Panhandle.

Meccariello


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                62  82  57  69  48 /  30  30  40  40  20
Beaver OK                  66  86  56  72  47 /  30  30  40  20  10
Boise City OK              51  79  49  69  43 /  40   5  10  20  10
Borger TX                  66  84  59  71  51 /  30  30  40  30  20
Boys Ranch TX              57  84  55  71  47 /  30  20  30  40  20
Canyon TX                  61  83  56  69  48 /  30  30  30  50  20
Clarendon TX               64  81  61  70  51 /  40  50  50  60  30
Dalhart TX                 56  83  50  70  44 /  30  10  20  20  10
Guymon OK                  60  85  53  71  46 /  30  10  30  20  10
Hereford TX                60  83  55  68  47 /  30  20  30  50  20
Lipscomb TX                68  83  58  72  48 /  30  50  50  20  10
Pampa TX                   65  82  56  70  48 /  30  40  40  40  20
Shamrock TX                67  84  63  72  51 /  30  60  50  60  20
Wellington TX              68  84  67  72  53 /  20  60  60  70  30

&&

AVIATION...
The majority of the 18Z TAF period will feature VFR conditions. A
cold front continues to work east out of central New Mexico. This
feature will provide VCTS conditions shortly after 00Z Saturday for
KDHT/KGUY. At times if thunderstorms do move over the TAF sites, MVFR
and even brief IFR conditions are possible before 06Z Saturday. VCTS
conditions are also expected at KAMA after 12Z Saturday as the cold
front makes its way through which may linger towards the end of the
TAF period for KAMA. Otherwise after 12Z Saturday, VFR conditions
will return with SCT high clouds for KDHT/KGUY through to the end of
the TAF period.

Meccariello

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

29/16