500
FXUS64 KAMA 271912
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
212 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 106 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Thunderstorm activity is expected to continue for the next 7
days. The best rain chances are still slated for the first few
days of next week.

Below normal temperatures also continue due to the active weather
pattern in place.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 106 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop once
again this afternoon off of the shortwave positioned in the
southern Texas Panhandle. Based off data from our 18Z sounding,
storms have the potential to start off isolated but then congeal
and become scattered the further east they move. In the evening,
thunderstorms moving out of New Mexico have a chance to affect the
western Panhandles. However, without daytime heating, storms
should begin to fall apart as nightfall commences. The primary
hazards today are still torrential rainfall that may lead to
flooding and strong winds. The odds of any storm producing severe
wind gusts are low, but not improbable. DCAPE profiles today show
evidence to support strong downdraft winds, but that would
require the storms to generate a robust updraft and become
somewhat organized. The latter of those requirements is our
confidence limiting factor today for severe wind gusts.

Tomorrow, the H500 ridge is progged to spread more across our
region. Thus, thunderstorm chances have become slightly more
limited. Though not all HiRes models are showing it, we believe
isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible in the southeast
Texas Panhandle due to the placement of the ridge axis and
favorable Theta-E profiles. Therefore, PoPs were added to the
areas we anticipated will be the most affected.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 106 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

The upper level dynamics in the extended continue to support an
active weather pattern for the next several days. Daily chances
for precipitation are in place for the next seven days, and high
temperatures will continue to be below normal or average for this
time of year. Sunday through Tuesday, thunderstorm coverage is
forecast to be more widespread for the combined Panhandles. This
will lead to higher flooding and even flash flooding concerns
heading into the new week. Trends will continue to be monitored to
narrow down the locations that could be impacted the most.

Rangel

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Mostly VFR conditions are expected for the new 18Z TAF period.
Similar to yesterday, our next round of thunderstorms will begin
this afternoon and multiple waves of isolated thunderstorms could
move across the Panhandles through the evening and night time
hours. Overall confidence has decrease on individual terminals
being impacted, so our previously prevailing SHRA and TSRA have
been put into PROB30 groups. Amendments will be made if any storm
moves directly over a terminal. Breezy, south-southwesterly winds
are expected at all sites this afternoon. Winds will subside
after sunset today and reinvigorate tomorrow in the late morning
hours.

Rangel

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...55