000
FXUS64 KAMA 082325
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
525 PM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT WILL MAKES IT WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES BETWEEN NOW AND 03Z. MAIN AFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTH...AND WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15KTS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z MONDAY. AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA AFTER 12Z WHICH WILL
INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER, ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO POSSIBLY CREATE
SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW. CONFIDENCE STILL VERY LOW
BUT HAVE HINTED AT LOWERING CLOUDS ESPECIALLY AFTER 15Z.

GARCIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CST SUN DEC 8 2013/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
NOTICEABLY WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY ONCE THE LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY AREAS OF FOG ERODED THIS MORNING. FULL SUNSHINE AND
DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST WINDS HELPED TO PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPS UP INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 40S WITH EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS TAGGING THE 50 DEGREE
MARK. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WERE FOUND OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AS SFC WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH TAPPED INTO THE
COLDER AIR UPSTREAM. A STRONG COLD FRONT /CURRENTLY STRETCHED OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS/ WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. ONCE THIS
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WHILE
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CAUSES TEMPS TO FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS
TO SINGLE DIGIT READINGS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A COLD START TO THE WORK WEEK MONDAY AS TEMPS WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO
CLIMB OUT OF THE 20S LATER IN THE DAY. EARLY IN THE MORNING WIND
CHILLS CAN FALL BELOW ZERO OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. OF GREATER CONCERN
IS OVER THE NORTHWEST SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE WIND CHILLS
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ARE LIKELY. WHILE THIS CERTAINLY
RAISES CONCERN FOR THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN THIS
AREA...WIND SPEEDS WILL BE TOO LIGHT /UNDER 10 MPH/. NONETHELESS
RESIDENTS NOT ONLY IN THIS AREA BUT ACROSS ALL OF THE PANHANDLES NEED
TO BRACE THEMSELVES FOR THIS NEXT DUMP OF COLD AIR.

BESIDES THE COLD THERE CAN BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW MONDAY AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS WHILE THE RRQ OF A JET STREAK
CROSSES THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO SUPPORTING THE POSSIBILITY FOR LIGHT SNOW
AND/OR FLURRIES. GIVEN THE COLD AIR MASS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS /UNDER AN INCH/. CLOUDS SHOULD START TO CLEAR
MONDAY EVENING AS THIS TROUGH SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
GENERALLY DRY WITH A MODERATION IN TEMPS FROM TUESDAY ON AS THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR RESIDING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE GREAT LAKES AREAS. AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY. UPPER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS PRETTY WEAK WHILE MOISTURE WILL NOT BE GREAT SO NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE 30S AREA WIDE. TEMPS WILL REBOUND
BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK FROM THE
INFLUENCE OF DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH
DEEPENING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. ANOTHER POSSIBLE CONCERN TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK CENTERS ON A CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO
LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO AND ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS SUGGESTS ANY PRECIP FROM
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE EAST OF THE AMA CWA WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS IN A
QUICK SHOT OF PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AS THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME TO SEE HOW THIS WILL
UNFOLD IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

CLK

FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMID TY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 20
PERCENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...PRECLUDING ELEVATED AND CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH. LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE BEHIND THIS FRONT MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY RETURN TO
THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

99/99