412
FXUS64 KAMA 100530
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1230 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Thunderstorms today and tomorrow have a low chance of becoming
severe. Damaging winds and hail are the primary hazards.

Tomorrow is expected to be the warmest day of the week. A cooling
trend commences Friday onward.

Daily thunderstorm chances continue into next week. The flood risk
will be monitored.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

An upper level trough prepares to dig south into our CWA Thursday
night. This will reposition the the ridge further west for the next
several days. A reinforcement shortwave is forecast to move through
on Friday after the main wave. Throughout the short term period,
surface winds will actually retain their southerly flow for most
areas barring the northwest. In our northwest zones, winds may go
variable to northerly by Friday due to the influence of a surface
high that`s forecast to develop off the mountains.

Thursday is our best shot at seeing 100 degree temperatures around
the combined Panhandles. Only a handful of locations should meet or
exceed 100, and the best spots to do so favor the eastern Texas
Panhandle and the Oklahoma Panhandle. The rest of the region will
cap off in the mid to upper 90`s. Later in the afternoon, convection
will initiate off the high terrain and move eastward. As the
shortwave moves in during the evening, thunderstorms will have the
lift they need to continue overnight even as they exit the better
Theat-E gradient forecast to setup over central portions of the
Texas Panhandle. A sufficient near storm environment will be present
for storms to become organized tomorrow evening and could quickly
turn severe. Damaging winds are the primary hazard given >1,000 J/kg
DCAPE anticipated tomorrow, but embedded hail cores are also
possible with storms that have strong updrafts.

Lingering showers are expected to fizzle out before sunrise on
Friday. This will aid in destabilization across the CWA and make way
for our next round of storms later in the day. If early morning
showers stay around later in the morning than currently forecast, we
should still have a sufficient window to clear out in the afternoon
for thunderstorms; however, they may not be as widespread especially
in the east. Another low risk for severe thunderstorms is present on
Friday. Damaging winds likely the primary hazard once again due to
our inverted V forecast soundings.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

At the start of the extended period, the H500 ridge will still
reside over the western CONUS. This allows the northwest flow regime
to continue over the CWA this weekend and into early next week. As
the week progresses we expect to see a decrease in heights as the
upper ridge begins to reposition itself across North America. Beyond
the 7 day period, the question remain as to where the new high
pressure center will set up and how high may heights in that time
frame rise before potentially being interrupted. In the meantime, the
suppression of upper level high pressure away from our region will
allow our active weather pattern to continue for the foreseeable
future.

Highs next week are forecast to retreat back into the 80`s. Given
our high moisture content in the area, it will make efforts to climb
back into the 90`s difficult for most places in the combined
Panhandles. However, this obstacle may still be overcome and some
lower 90`s should return to a few locations by the middle of next
week. those same high moisture profiles will aid in the continuation
of our daily thunderstorm chances. While low end severe threats are
still possible, our main concern will be flooding next week.

Rangel

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

VFR conditions are tentatively expected throughout the 06Z TAF
period. The main question will revolve around how thunderstorms
could impact the TAF sites today. PROB30 groups have been
introduced for DHT and GUY given our higher confidence of those
terminals being impacted this evening. AMA has been omitted for
now, as we need to see the evolution of convection today to aid
our decision on adding thunder to AMA`s TAF. Right now the
chances are present, but are still quite low.

Strong surface winds are forecast to flow through all sites this
afternoon and evening. Winds will flow from the south-southwest
at about 15-20 kts. Gusts will be up to 35 kts at times. Wind
speeds will decrease after sunset.

Rangel

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...55