Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 062215
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
415 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Latest upper level analysis places broad cyclonic flow over the
western and central CONUS. The nose of a strengthening mid level jet
is entering northwestern NM. At the surface...high pressure has
settled over the northeastern Panhandle into northeastern OK and
south central KS. This has kept winds on the low side generally out
of the southeast. Dew point have been much lower today compared to guidance
with most of the area in the low single digits. Clouds cover has
also kept temperatures a bit cooler with 30s across the Panhandles
as of 21z.

Going into tomorrow...the aforementioned mid level jet and trough
axis will cross the area with a very strong arctic cold front in its
wake. Most of the Panhandles will be in the right exit region of the
jet leading to a unfavorable ageostrophic flow for upper level
ascent...with more subsidence/drying expected in the mid and upper
levels. At the surface...very strong cold air advection will lead to
windy conditions especially Wednesday afternoon. Forecast
soundings hint at the possibility of brief light drizzle and/or
snow flurries late Wednesday across the OK Panhandle and very
early Thursday across the Texas Panhandle as the very cold air
starts advecting in on northeasterly winds. The NAM time lagged
profiles seem to key in on the upslope winds leading to flurries
as low levels become saturated from 870mb to 800mb with steep
lapse rates and temperatures dropping to around -10 deg celsius
within the saturated level. Portions of the Oklahoma Panhandle
could see a light dusting of snow while areas further south might
see a few flakes but not expecting any accumulations.

High pressure will start to build in early Thursday with decreasing
winds and very cold conditions during the morning. Low temperatures
will range from high single digits in western OK Panhandle to high
teens in the southeastern TX Panhandle. Highs on Thursday will
only be in the high 20s to mid 30s.

Going into Friday...cold and dry air mass will still be in place
early with lows again dropping into the teens. Upper trough shifts
northeast with more zonal flow ahead of the next system. Surface
high pressure will have moved east of the Panhandles allowing
southwest winds to increase by sunrise leading to wind chill
values near zero across most of the area before temperatures
quickly recover back to the 40s by afternoon.

Beyond Friday...Temperatures will warm into the 60s on Saturday
before the next upper wave clips the northern CWA with a weak cold
front moving through on Sunday. Temperatures will stay around
average with dry conditions going into early next week. A gradual
warming trend is expected towards the middle of next week as zonal
flow sets up to our north and ridging to our south.

Ward

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                25  42  14  31  18 /   0   5  10   0   0
Beaver OK                  22  35  11  31  13 /   5  20  10   0   0
Boise City OK              21  31   7  28  14 /   5  10  10   0   0
Borger TX                  26  39  16  32  20 /   0  10  10   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              24  43  12  33  16 /   0   5  10   0   0
Canyon TX                  24  46  15  30  16 /   0   5  10   0   0
Clarendon TX               27  45  17  34  18 /   0   5  10   0   0
Dalhart TX                 21  36  14  31  16 /   0   5  10   0   0
Guymon OK                  21  34  12  31  15 /   5  20  10   0   0
Hereford TX                24  48  15  33  17 /   0   5  10   5   0
Lipscomb TX                23  37  16  33  16 /   5  10  10   0   0
Pampa TX                   26  39  13  33  17 /   0  10  10   0   0
Shamrock TX                26  44  18  35  17 /   0  10  10   0   0
Wellington TX              28  47  20  37  18 /   0   5   5   0   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

11/7


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