Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 092053
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
253 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CHALLENGES FOR THIS FORECAST ARE WINDS AND RH FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS TOMORROW (SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW)...AND
TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN
WILL GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFY WITH A TREND TOWARD HIGHER MID LEVEL HEIGHTS
AS WESTERN RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD. MEANWHILE WEAK PERTURBATIONS
IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL OCCASIONALLY FORCE WEAK COLD
FRONTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. NEITHER OF THESE HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
COLD AIR MASS BEHIND THEM AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

THE COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES...CLEAR SKIES/FULL
INSOLATION...AND DOWNSLOPE SURFACE FLOW WILL RESULT IN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. MOST OF THE RAW AND STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MID 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
THE RECORD HIGH FOR FEBRUARY 10TH IS 82 AT AMARILLO...84 AT
BORGER...AND 80 AT DALHART...ALL OCCURRED IN 1962.

THE FIRST WEAK SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT COMBINATION WILL ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS
IS STILL NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. BY THIS
TIME...PERSISTENT TROUGHING WILL STILL BE PRESENT IN THE EAST WITH
WESTERN RIDGING PLACING OUR AREA IN MEAN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. BY
FRIDAY THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL BE CLOSER ALTHOUGH ITS AXIS WILL STILL
BE POSITIONED JUST WEST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER
SOME BY FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT MAY PUSH A
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA CAUSING
A FAIRLY TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH
COOLER POST FRONTAL AIR MASS INFILTRATING IN THE NORTHEAST. THE
RIDGE WILL QUICKLY FLATTEN AND THE FLOW WILL BECOME QUASI-ZONAL LATE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WITH CROSS-MOUNTAIN FLOW INCREASING CIRRUS WILL
PROBABLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE
AREA. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE ALL QUITE DIFFERENT IN TIMING
AND AMPLITUDE. IN EITHER CASE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN DRY
WEATHER AND RIDGING STRENGTHENS UPON THE DEPARTURE OF THIS SHORTWAVE
SO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BRB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW AND MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT AT MOST LOCATIONS FOR
AT LEAST A FEW HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WIND REMAINS
MARGINAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
AND WIND SPEEDS NEAR THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER INDICATE NEAR
CRITERIA. WE WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE FOR
CRITICAL CONDITIONS WHICH WOULD BE MOST LIKELY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
DALHART TO PAMPA TO WELLINGTON IF THEY DO OCCUR. MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE AREA SHOULD SEE SUFFICENT 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS THAT WHEN COMBINED
WITH EXPECTED LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CAUSE
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

6/17


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