Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 272347
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
647 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY CREATE
SOME MVFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY BETWEEN ABOUT 09Z TO 15Z SUNDAY AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 00Z
SUNDAY...AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 15Z SUNDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INSERTED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP OVER THE SOUTHEAST
TEXAS PANHANDLE FOR THIS EVENING. DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY HELP TO FORM SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ALSO HELP TO FORM LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY MAY BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT AS LOW CLOUDS
HANG ON THROUGH THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST.

THEN FOCUS TURNS TO THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP AND LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY
TILTED AS IT LIFTS OUT. SO...THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH
THE ADDED LIFT AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT TO HELP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA...SO SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR EAST.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH BEHIND THIS DEPARTING LONG
WAVE TROUGH AND IT MOVES TOWARD THE PANHANDLES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS TROUGH MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SO HAVE RETAINED POPS THERE AND HAVE ALSO EXPANDED
THE POPS TO MOST OF THE NORTH...CLOSER TO THE DYNAMICS.

WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE FORECAST DRY AS THE LAST TROUGH MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST OF THE PANHANDLES...LEAVING OUR AREA IN A DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 20
PERCENT AND CHANCES OF RAIN WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT A
MINIMUM.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/08




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