Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 162202
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
502 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Lots of weather still coming over the next week. Tonight will be
one of the quieter weather days with only an isolated chance for
storms in just the far southeast TX Panhandle. Storms tonight
should be strong to marginally severe. Thursday however looks to
be a different story as upper level flow changes from
southwesterly to northwesterly. All the models are suggesting some
form of MCS or line will move through the Panhandles as a mid-
level shortwave will pass through the area causing instability and
lift. Combining this with good shear, there is a decent chance for
storms tomorrow night to become severe with winds and hail. With
decent low level helicity in addition to these parameters, an
isolated brief tornado couldn`t be ruled out.

By Friday, the upper level support is less and thus will lead to
waiting for storms to come off the mountains. The weekend will see
upper levels turn more into a high pressure dome where storms will
form off the mountains or around the perimeter. This will lead to
a more isolated storm nature for the area. By the beginning of the
work week, southwest flow will return and bring storms into the
western zones. By mid-week, the chances for precip continue to
increase across the area, including a possible frontal passage.

Beat

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                64  88  65  89  65 /  10  20  40  20  20
Beaver OK                  62  92  66  94  67 /  10  10  60  30  20
Boise City OK              63  85  62  90  61 /  10  30  40  20  10
Borger TX                  67  90  68  92  68 /  10  20  50  20  20
Boys Ranch TX              64  91  64  92  64 /  10  20  40  20  20
Canyon TX                  65  87  64  89  66 /  10  20  30  20  20
Clarendon TX               67  89  66  90  68 /  10  10  40  20  20
Dalhart TX                 65  88  63  92  61 /  10  20  40  20  20
Guymon OK                  64  89  65  93  62 /  10  20  50  20  20
Hereford TX                66  88  66  91  65 /  10  20  30  20  20
Lipscomb TX                67  92  66  92  68 /  10  10  60  30  30
Pampa TX                   65  91  67  92  65 /  10  10  50  20  30
Shamrock TX                68  89  68  91  68 /  20  10  50  20  30
Wellington TX              70  90  69  93  69 /  20  10  40  20  30

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

24/16


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