Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 241123

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
623 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017


For the 12Z TAFs:

The terminals will be between VFR and MVFR through the morning
hours and in some brief instances IFR as thunderstorms continue
pushing north and east of the forecast area. Rain has brought
plenty of moisture around the area and the terminals remain
saturated in the lower levels of the atmosphere, so there could
be brief periods of visibility restrictions and low ceilings that
get into the IFR, but wind speeds could be the one factor that
limits these conditions. Otherwise, expect breezy wind speeds
again this afternoon across the Panhandles.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 413 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017/

Radar trends showing decrease in rainfall intensities with
satellite indicating warming cloud tops. Latest short term model
trends suggest continued decrease in overall rainfall coverage
through today. Decided, after collaboration with other surrounding
offices, to cancel the Flash Flood Watch with this forecast

Closed upper low over the Great Basin region forecast today to
lift northeast across the northern Rockies and northern Plains
states by Monday night and Tuesday. As the best upper level
support lift further away from the Panhandles, expect overall
convection to decrease today and tonight. Frontal boundary
forecast to slowly push south and east into the forecast area
tonight and early Monday before finally exiting the Panhandles by
late Monday. Possible that the threat for heavy or very heavy
rainfall and the need for another Flash Flood Watch may return
Monday along and near this slow-moving frontal boundary. Another
closed upper low forecast to develop by late Tuesday or Wednesday
over the southwestern states which should lift northeast across
the Four Corners region by late this week. Upper high forecast to
build over south Texas late this week with upper ridge over the
Panhandles ahead of the closed upper low west of the forecast
area. Medium range models suggest upper trough to approach the
Panhandles late this week. Convection chances are expected to
continue through late this week with drier conditions expected
next weekend.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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