Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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354
FXUS64 KAMA 230950
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
450 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.AVIATION...12z TAFS...
Scattered showers and storms are expected to continue across the
Panhandles, mainly near KDHT and KGUY. Winds be variable between
10-15 kts throughout the TAF period. PROB30 group continues
starting at 21Z through about 02z. Storms that develop could bring
MVFR/IFR categories to the TAF sites. Storms will be slow moving
and will likely produce heavy rainfall. Gusty winds and small hail
will be possible with these storms as well.

Weber

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 301 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Overall theme of the forecast remains unchanged with precip
chances during the early and late portions of the forecast.

Shortwaves in the upper flow have prolonged convection throughout
the overnight hours across the Panhandles with the greatest
activity across the Oklahoma Panhandle. CAMs suggest this activity
will diminish as we approach sunrise, and we won`t see
redevelopment until this afternoon. While we will likely see a
lull in convective activity later on this morning, current
thought is that CAMs are not resolving the upper disturbances
well. This would result in a much sooner lull. Think the lull will
be more towards 15Z rather than 10Z-12Z. For this reason, have
retained low end POPs through the morning hours before increasing
after 18Z. Severe weather is not anticipated through the early
morning hours with heavy rain being the primary hazard.

As we move into the afternoon and overnight hours, we will see
the influence of more perturbations in the upper flow. This will
also be as instability climbs into the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range.
Deep layer shear remains low but DCAPE values are forecast to rise
into 2000 - 2500 J/kg. As a result, organized convection is not
anticipated but can`t rule out a storm producing severe level
downburst or a few quarter size hail stones. Storms will likely
carry well into the morning hours on Monday before we see a
decrease in coverage around midday. This will be short lived as
the next round of perturbations approach the Panhandles to spark
additional storms for Monday night. This will be the last round of
storms for the greater potions of the area as the upper ridge
repositions itself briefly over the Panhandles.

Tuesday may be our driest day of the week as the ridge moves
overhead, but there is some suggestions that we may still see a
few storms sneak into the far northwestern corner of the
Panhandles. The upper ridge retrogrades back to the west Wednesday
and this will bring a return of the wet pattern through the end of
the work week. Deep layer shear is expected to be low once again
to keep the risk of severe weather limited. Looking beyond into
the weekend, we could see slightly better deep layer shear (~25kt)
so sever weather would not be out of the question.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                94  68  93  68  95 /  50  40  30  20   5
Beaver OK                  98  69  97  72 100 /  20  30  20  20  10
Boise City OK              91  63  92  65  95 /  30  30  20  20  10
Borger TX                  97  72  96  74  99 /  50  40  30  20   5
Boys Ranch TX              97  69  95  70  97 /  50  40  30  20   5
Canyon TX                  94  67  92  67  95 /  40  40  30  20   5
Clarendon TX               96  69  93  70  97 /  30  40  30  20   5
Dalhart TX                 95  65  94  66  96 /  50  40  30  20  10
Guymon OK                  96  67  96  70  99 /  20  30  20  20   5
Hereford TX                94  67  93  67  95 /  30  30  20  10   5
Lipscomb TX                99  70  96  72  99 /  40  40  30  20  10
Pampa TX                   97  69  94  71  97 /  50  40  30  20   5
Shamrock TX                99  71  96  71  99 /  40  40  30  20   5
Wellington TX             100  71  97  71 100 /  20  40  30  20   5

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

89/14



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