Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 170945

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
445 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

Latest upper level analysis places an expanding area of high
pressure over the southwest CONUS with a separate area of anti-
cyclonic flow over the east-central Plains. A subtle shortwave is
observed between the two areas of high pressure, coming off the
southern CO Rockies. Weak PVA associated with this feature is
providing just enough mid/upper lift to generate a few
showers/thunderstorms over the last few hours. These storms will
stay isolated mainly across the eastern OK Panhandle down into the
central Texas Panhandle before they move east of the area by
around 12z-15z.

Deterministic guidance keeps enough low/mid level moisture around
today between the two high pressure systems to warrant isolated
mention of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Forcing will
be limited to old outflow boundaries and a developing lee trough
in the afternoon. Any storms will be single cell/short lived
storms with slow storm motion as mid/upper level winds are weak.
Instability will be moderate, with SBCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg.
However, low shear values will prevent storm organization. Any
storms that can develop should not last long after sunset with
loss of daytime heating. Temperatures will warm into the 90s with
10-20 mph southwest winds in the afternoon.

The rest of the week through Friday looks dry with a slight
warming trend as high pressure over the southwest finally expands
over the south-central states with zonal flow over the northern
CONUS. Guidance is then hinting at rain chances returning for next
weekend as a shortwave combines with increasing sub-tropical
moisture especially going into early next week. Models are fairly
bullish with some wide-spread precip during the Sun-Tues time
frame. Will be watching for model to model consistency before
going too crazy with pops.



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