Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 250938
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
438 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.Discussion...
The Panhandles will get a chance to dry out a bit today as mid level
heights rise, bringing on 90s, and the dryline pushes east into
western Oklahoma. A shortwave moving through the upper level trough
to the west will swing through the area Thursday. This coupled with
the dryline`s retreat into the eastern Panhandles will allow the
eastern zones to see a chance for precip again. With moderate
instability, dew points in the mid 50s, and steep mid level lapse
rates, severe weather will be possible. Forecast soundings indicate
the threat would likely be an early afternoon event with elevated
thunderstorms, leading to threats for large hail and damaging winds.
The dryline should push further east into Oklahoma during the evening
and take the threat of severe weather with it.

The mid level closed low in the desert southwest pushes into southern
Kansas Friday. This will keep the dryline in Oklahoma but brings wrap
around moisture on the backside of the surface low. Thus the northern
area will have a chance for some showers and general thunderstorms
Friday. A cold front will glide through the Panhandles Friday night
into Saturday morning and bring another chance for some showers and
thunderstorms during the day on Saturday.

Up until Sunday, the models are all in pretty decent agreement for
timing and locations. However, on Sunday, the models start to
diverge. The dryline begins to retreat into the Panhandles and
moisture returns along with enough instability from a shortwave for
storms to again become severe. Further updates as we get closer will
be needed to determine better specifics. The extended period from
Monday through Thursday next week looks similar with the dryline
hanging out somewhere in the Panhandles and more shortwaves pushing
through the area, along with another front possible on Wednesday.

Beat

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...
Amarillo TX                90  60  87  55  82 /   0   5   5   5  10
Beaver OK                  94  59  90  58  83 /   0   5  20  10  20
Boise City OK              84  54  83  52  73 /   0   5   0  10  30
Borger TX                  93  59  89  55  82 /   0   5  10  10  10
Boys Ranch TX              92  58  88  54  81 /   0   5   0   5  10
Canyon TX                  92  61  88  54  84 /   0   5   5   5   5
Clarendon TX               91  64  89  59  84 /   5   5  10  10   0
Dalhart TX                 87  56  85  51  77 /   0   5   0   5  20
Guymon OK                  90  56  88  55  79 /   0   5  10  10  20
Hereford TX                92  59  88  53  83 /   0   5   0   5   5
Lipscomb TX                93  62  89  59  83 /   0   5  20  10  20
Pampa TX                   91  61  88  56  82 /   0   5  10  10  10
Shamrock TX                93  66  90  61  86 /   5   5  20  20  10
Wellington TX              94  69  92  63  88 /   5   5  20  20   5

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

2/16



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