Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 242023
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
323 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Tricky forecast over the next several days. The cold front that was
expected to push into the Panhandles is hung up over the Oklahoma
Panhandle and far northwest Texas Panhandle. The NAM is the only
model that pushes it further south, while all other models do not. It
is a reasonable scenario that the front will be held up as the short
wave moving in from New Mexico is not as strong and the upper ridge
to our east remains in place. For tonight, there are two focus
areas, one in the northwest near the frontal boundary and a second in
the southeast where a good moisture plume could produce some lift and
a marginal potential for severe weather. Otherwise, will blanket the
region with chance pops due to uncertainty in location and progress
of thunderstorms from west and south. Expect a repeat for decent
chances of moisture again on Thursday evening and night.

Appears we`ll have a reduction in shower and thunderstorm chances for
Friday, but the remainder of the weekend and into early next week
still look to be on the wetter side. Pacific moisture plume riding
along the western edge of the upper high will persist and model
soundings continue to indicate precipitable water values near the one
inch mark. A weak upper ridge is forecast to develop towards the
middle of next week allowing for drier air and warmer temperatures.

Garcia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                63  82  62  83  64 /  50  50  50  20  10
Beaver OK                  64  87  64  86  66 /  50  40  50  30  20
Boise City OK              58  79  60  81  61 /  60  40  40  30  30
Borger TX                  65  86  64  86  66 /  50  50  50  20  10
Boys Ranch TX              62  84  62  86  63 /  50  40  50  20  20
Canyon TX                  63  83  62  85  63 /  50  40  50  20  10
Clarendon TX               65  87  64  87  66 /  60  50  50  20  10
Dalhart TX                 61  82  61  84  62 /  60  40  50  20  20
Guymon OK                  63  84  63  85  65 /  50  40  40  20  20
Hereford TX                62  82  61  86  63 /  50  40  50  20  10
Lipscomb TX                67  89  64  86  67 /  50  50  50  20  10
Pampa TX                   64  82  63  85  65 /  50  50  50  20  10
Shamrock TX                67  90  65  88  68 /  60  50  40  10  10
Wellington TX              68  92  67  90  69 /  60  40  30  10  10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 217 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
..Marginally severe weather possible today...

* Summary: Thunderstorms are anticipated to redevelop across the
  Panhandles this afternoon. Some of the storms could become severe
  mainly across the southeastern and eastern Texas Panhandle and be
  capabale of producing wind gusts of 65 MPH and hail up to the size
  of quarters. Thunderstorms capable of producing minor flooding or
  flash flooding are possible across the western Oklahoma and
  northwestern Texas Panhandles this evening and tonight.

* Synoptic Overview: Plume of monsoonal moisture is situated across
  the far western Panhandles and eastern NM this afternoon. The
  primary upper trough is currently positioned over western NM and is
  slowly moving to the east at roughly 20kt. Water vapor imagery
  shows the axis of the trough rotating through AZ towards western
  NM. This is helping the trough to transition from positive tilt to
  more of a neutral tilt. This transition to a more neutral tilt as
  well as the strength of the upper high pressure centered over the
  SE US have not been handled well by near-term models. A cold front
  is draped from Liberal, KS to Eva, OK southwestward to Boise City,
  OK then westward to Clayton, NM. Cloud cover continues to erode
  across portions of the Panhandles early this afternoon. Where
  clouds have thinned temperatures have risen into the upper 70s to
  mid 80s. Dewpoints range from 50s on the Caprock to 60s off the
  Caprock. Regional radar shows residual light showers moving
  northeastward across the far eastern Panhandles with one storm
  hanging onto a northeastward moving outflow boundary near Guymon,
  OK.

* Mesoscale: The better instability values across the Panhandles are
  expected across the southeastern Texas Panhandle where dewpoints
  remain in the mid to upper 60s with temperatures in the lower 80s.
  Both NAM and RAP BUFR soundings show CAPE increasing into the 1500
  J/kg range with 0-6km Bulk Shear of 30 to 40kts by 7PM this
  evening. This should be sufficient for a few storms to become
  strong to marginally severe. RAP DCAPE values are forecast to
  increase into the 1200 J/kg range showing that damaging wind gusts
  will be possible with any storm that becomes severe. Relatively
  skinny CAPE through the hail growth zone should help to keep the
  maximum hail size limited to quarter. Torrential downpours, which
  could lead to localized minor flooding or flash flooding, will also
  be a concern with the stronger storms due to access to ample low
  level moisture.

  The cold front which has struggled to make much inroads into the
  northwest Panhandles today should help to develop convection
  despite relatively little instability. These storms could present
  a minor flooding or flash flooding threat given the combination of
  monsoonal flow and parallel storm motions along the stalled front.
  Training storms along this front will have PWATs in the
  climatological 75th percentile for this time of year.

* Threats: A few marginally  severe thunderstorms will be possible
  across the southeastern and eastern Texas Panhandle this evening.
  Any storms that become severe will be capable of producing damaging
  wind gusts up to 65 MPH and hail up to the size of quarters.
  Torrential downpours within severe storms could also lead to
  localized minor flooding or flash flooding. Minor flooding or flash
  flooding will also be possible with storms across the western
  Oklahoma and northwestern Texas Panhandles.

* Timing & Location: Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the
  southeastern and eastern Texas Panhandle roughly between 3 and 4 pm
  CDT with the best chance for severe storms between 3PM CDT and 8PM
  CDT. Storms capable of producing minor flooding or flash flooding
  are expected to move into the western Oklahoma and northwestern
  Texas Panhandles around 5PM CDT and persist until 1 AM CDT.

&&

$$



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