Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 211752 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1152 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

For the 18Z TAFs, VFR conditions will prevail at all terminal
sites through 18Z Wednesday.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 531 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017/

12Z Issuance...All sites will remain VFR through the next 24
hours. Winds will be light and almost variable at times with
southwesterly being the main direction.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 336 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017/

An upper ridge will build across the Panhandles today and then
shift eastward tonight and Wednesday. A mainly southwest to
northwest dry upper flow expected through early next week across
the forecast area. A surface trough across eastern Colorado and
eastern New Mexico today will deepen Wednesday through Thursday as
a surface low develops over southeastern Colorado. As the surface
low tracks eastward late this week, a cold front will push south
across the Panhandles Friday into Friday evening. Surface high
builds down into the forecast area over the upcoming weekend with
much cooler conditions expected. Surface low develops over
southeastern Colorado or northeastern New Mexico late in the
weekend with the frontal boundary forecast to lift back to the
north and east as a warm front late this weekend into early next
week. Downsloping southwesterly to westerly winds will allow for
much warmer conditions late this weekend into early next week
behind the warm front. Another surface trough forecast to develop
over eastern Colorado and eastern New Mexico by next Tuesday. Dry
conditions will prevail through the extended forecast period.

Record high temperatures will be possible Wednesday afternoon at
all three of our climatological stations:

                   Forecast High               Record High
Amarillo:              83                      84 set in 1996
Borger:                84                      82 set in 1996
Dalhart:               81                      77 set in 2012


A surface trough will develop to the lee of the Rockies today
although 20 foot southwest to west winds will remain below 15 mph.
The surface trough will deepen Wednesday resulting in increasing
westerly winds around 15 to 20 mph with higher gusts across much
of the western and south central Texas Panhandle. Elevated fire
weather conditions can be expected Wednesday afternoon. The 850 mb
thermal ridge is poised to be directly over the Panhandles
Wednesday afternoon along with the 500 mb 60 to 70 knot jet max
across the Panhandles into the Central Plains states. On Thursday,
the 850 mb thermal ridge is forecast to shift eastward into
western and central Oklahoma with the forecast area being mainly
on the western periphery of the thermal ridge. The 500 mb 70 knot
jet max should be situated across the Panhandles and West Texas
Thursday afternoon with a 50 to 60 knot 700 mb jet max forecast to
be across the Panhandles and West Texas. A 90 to 100 knot 300 mb
jet max forecast to approach the Panhandles from the southwestern
states Wednesday into Thursday. Wednesday and Thursday have a lot
similarities, and a few differences, to the Southern Plains
Wildfire Outbreak Composite Map.

Friday and again next Monday could potentially be elevated fire
weather condition days as either northwest or west 20 foot winds
of 15 to 20 mph with higher gusts along with minimum afternoon
relative humidities of around 15 to 20 percent are expected both
those days.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for the following zones: Armstrong...Carson...
     Collingsworth...Dallam...Deaf Smith...Donley...Gray...

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for the following zones: Beaver...Cimarron...Texas.


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