Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
FXUS64 KAMA 252318 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
618 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016
For the 00Z TAFs, VFR conditions will prevail at all terminal sites
through late Monday afternoon.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 321 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016/
Precipitation continuing across the far southeast Texas Panhandle at
this time, but expect that any light showers will end before 6 PM.
Thus, forecast will be dry tonight. Clouds will be slow to clear
across southeastern sections, due to residual low-level moisture
closer to departing cold front. Brisk northeast winds expected to
diminish quickly this evening.
Dry and uneventful weather expected Monday through Thursday as weak
flow aloft prevails as a result of mid-level ridge between closed 500
mb lows to the northeast and southwest of the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles. Two chilly mornings are on tap for Monday and Tuesday,
with very pleasant cloud-free afternoons both days.
Wednesday expected to be the warmest day of the forecast as it will
likely be the last clear day before mid- and high-level clouds begin
to increase. By Thursday, southwest flow aloft resumes, with the
potential for Pacific moisture to be tapped.
Tropical Depression 18-E currently southwest of Baja California may
boost the mid-level moisture return for the forecast area during the
final half of the forecast. Any low-level moisture return for the
area will likely have to take the western route, as it appears the
Texas gulf coast will remain closed for most of the week.
Thus, low pops kept for northwest half of combined Panhandles beginning
Thursday night, spreading farther southeast on Friday. Friday night
may provide our best opportunity for showers and thunderstorms as
ensembles suggest that lee trof may sharpen and move well into
forecast area. Low pops kept for mainly eastern and northeastern
sections Saturday and Saturday night, with Sunday kept dry for now.