Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 301133
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
633 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.AVIATION...
For the 12z TAFs...
No real change from forecast of six hours ago.  Airport Weather
Warning for northwest surface gusts above 40 kt continues until
01z Monday for Amarillo area airports.

Otherwise, IFR to MVFR ceilings will prevail through early to mid
afternoon. Abrupt clearing will occur shortly thereafter.
Surface winds diminish early this evening, with VFR conditions to
follow.

Cockrell

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 442 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Snow continues to fall across the Panhandles this morning and
should continue through the morning. Expect the snow to end over
the afternoon hours beginning in the south and west and ending in
the northeast by late afternoon. Water vapor imagery over night
showed the upper low crossing the Panhandles and has the eastern
Texas Panhandle in the dry slot. The central and western parts of
the area are currently seeing snowfall from the backside of the
low and the OK Panhandle will see the greatest amount of new
snowfall today as they will be in it the longest.

The pressure gradient is expected to tighten and ramp up the
northerly winds as the system heads out. This has made for a
complicated forecast for today. Short range and hi-res models are
all indicating that we should see sustained winds of 35-45 mph.
This combined with the falling snow will cause significant
reductions in visibility. For now, have held off on turning
anything into a Blizzard Warning. Confidence at this point is low
with a lack of good feeling as to how this is all going to play
out. This snow has been fairly wet, so not really expected much of
a drifting or ground blizzard event. The only concern would be for
locations that have ongoing snow falling with these winds if
visibility can be reduced to one-quarter mile. We are already
seeing gusts of 40 kts this morning, which is well before what the
models have been suggesting. Have good confidence we will verify
the Wind Advisory, but confidence is low on if it needs to be
started sooner or if winds will get higher and a High Wind Warning
may be needed. Will just have to monitor the trends for now.

After we get past this system and the freezing temps overnight for
the northwestern third of the area, things will warm up and dry
out. The next upper level trough will make its way here by late
Tuesday night into Wednesday and bring a chance for isolated
thunderstorms. Severe weather is not expected at this time as
instability looks very weak. Storms that get going will need to be
elevated for anything to be strong as forecast soundings show a
moderate cap. The end of the week dries out again as ridging takes
hold through the weekend.

Beat

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                51  36  71  44  75 /  30   0   0   0   5
Beaver OK                  44  32  67  41  69 /  70   5   0   5   5
Boise City OK              41  32  54  36  62 /  70   0   0   5   5
Borger TX                  50  36  71  47  73 /  50   0   0   0   5
Boys Ranch TX              54  35  70  42  74 /  30   0   0   0   5
Canyon TX                  53  36  72  43  77 /  20   0   0   0   5
Clarendon TX               53  41  73  47  77 /  20   0   0   0   5
Dalhart TX                 48  33  65  40  68 /  40   0   0   0   5
Guymon OK                  43  33  63  40  67 /  70   0   0   5   5
Hereford TX                56  36  73  43  77 /  20   0   0   0   5
Lipscomb TX                47  34  70  44  72 /  50   0   0   5   5
Pampa TX                   46  36  70  46  73 /  40   0   0   0   5
Shamrock TX                50  39  73  48  77 /  20   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              53  40  75  48  79 /  10   0   0   0   5

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the
     following zones: Armstrong...Carson...Deaf Smith...Gray...
     Hansford...Hemphill...Hutchinson...Lipscomb...Moore...
     Ochiltree...Oldham...Potter...Randall...Roberts...Wheeler.

     Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for the following zones: Armstrong...Carson...
     Collingsworth...Donley...Gray...Hansford...Hemphill...
     Hutchinson...Lipscomb...Moore...Ochiltree...Potter...
     Randall...Roberts...Sherman...Wheeler.

     Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for the
     following zones: Dallam...Hartley...Sherman.

OK...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the
     following zones: Beaver.

     Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for the following zones: Beaver...Cimarron...Texas.

     Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for the
     following zones: Cimarron...Texas.


&&

$$

03/16


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