Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 291107
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
607 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

MOIST UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW ALONG WITH AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 20Z TODAY TO AROUND 02Z TO 05Z
SATURDAY. VLIFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND NEAR THE
CONVECTION TODAY WITH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH BY 22Z
TODAY TO 01Z SATURDAY 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT ALL THREE
TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES BETWEEN 20Z TODAY AND 00Z SATURDAY...AND 02Z TO 08Z
SATURDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL TRACK EASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. A STATIONARY FRONT
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE OR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTH TODAY AS
A SURFACE LOW...LOCATED OVER FAR WEST TEXAS...TRACKS EASTWARD.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TODAY ALONG WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND
BRISK UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
THE ECMWF AND NAM MOS GUIDANCES FORECASTING MAX TEMP NEAR 60 FOR
AMARILLO WHICH COULD BE CLOSER TO REALITY. WENT ABOUT A CATEGORY
ABOVE THE COOLEST GUIDANCE FOR NOW. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS EVENING WITH PRECIP ENDED BY 06Z
SATURDAY. ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES BY LATE SATURDAY MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A SECOND CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
APPROACH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SUNDAY AND THE PANHANDLES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. CONTINUED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH AND EAST OUT OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
PANHANDLES BY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY LATE NEXT WEEK WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

SCHNEIDER

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                64  37  65  37  59 /  50  10   5  10  30
BEAVER OK                  54  39  63  39  59 /  90  30   5  10  20
BOISE CITY OK              49  34  58  34  52 /  90  20  10  20  40
BORGER TX                  62  40  66  39  61 /  70  10   5  10  30
BOYS RANCH TX              63  37  65  38  59 /  50  10  10  20  40
CANYON TX                  68  37  67  39  60 /  40   5   5  10  30
CLARENDON TX               72  42  69  41  63 /  50  10   5   5  20
DALHART TX                 57  36  61  36  55 /  70  20  10  20  40
GUYMON OK                  52  38  61  36  56 /  90  20   5  20  30
HEREFORD TX                68  37  68  38  59 /  30   5  20  20  40
LIPSCOMB TX                58  41  65  41  61 /  80  30   5   5  20
PAMPA TX                   62  38  64  37  60 /  70  10   5  10  30
SHAMROCK TX                70  44  69  43  64 /  70  10   5   5  20
WELLINGTON TX              75  45  72  45  66 /  60  10   5   5  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

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