Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 291740
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1240 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION... /FOR THE 18Z TAFS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOST NUMEROUS NEAR KDHT AND KGUY.
LOWER PROBABILITIES EXIST NEAR KAMA. ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT MOSTLY AROUND AND 00Z LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. FORECAST FOR CEILINGS AND WIND LATER IN THE NIGHT ARE
CONDITIONAL ON HOW CONVECTION EVOLVES THIS EVENING. CONTINUED MVFR
CEILINGS AT KAMA FOR A PERIOD LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. EXPECT AMENDMENTS TO WIND...CEILINGS...
AND TIMING OF CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
THE MCS THAT WENT THROUGH OVERNIGHT BRINGING PRECIP TO MOST OF THE
OK AND TX PANHANDLES HAS MOVED INTO KS.  BETWEEN THE PRECIP FROM
THIS AND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE YESTERDAY...TEMPS OVERNIGHT WERE
AROUND 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.  THE FRONT ALSO
SWUNG THE WINDS AROUND SO THAT THEY ARE NOW OUT OF THE NORTH AND
THEY WILL BE STAY NORTHEASTERLY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.  THE RIDGE
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL START TO BREAK DOWN AND TURN INTO
ZONAL FLOW AS THE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS SLIDING BACK TO THE WEST.  BY
FRIDAY MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE OF A RIDGE OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA THUS BRINGING NORTHWEST FLOW TO THE
PANHANDLES.  UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA THROUGH THIS TRANSITION PERIOD AND THUS BRINGING MORE CHANCES
FOR RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.  WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...HIGH TEMPS WILL COOLER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS WITH MOST PLACES NOT REACHING 90 DEGREES.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW PW VALUES TO BE BETWEEN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND
THE 99TH PERCENTILE SO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH
STORMS OVER THE PERIOD.  CONCERNS OVER THE ALREADY FULL PLAYA LAKES
WILL MEAN CAREFUL WATCHING OF WHERE RAIN FALLS.  SOME STORMS MAY
PRODUCE SOME STRONG WINDS AS WELL.

MB

FOR THE PERIOD SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...SOME SEMBLANCE OF A
NW FLOW ALOFT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. HAVE INCLUDED SLGT
CHC POPS EVERY PERIOD THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE TX
AND OK PNHDLS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A DAILY THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND COULD NOT ARGUE AGAINST THIS SCENARIO
GIVEN THE PROGGED UA PATTERN.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/15




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