Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 230755
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
255 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. A RELATIVELY QUIET
PERIOD IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A CLEARING TREND
TODAY AFTER AREAS OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
RISES WILL OCCUR AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE
REGION. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH (BY AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES) WILL BE
THE RESULT OF THIS ANOMALOUS RIDGE THIS WEEKEND AS 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE
TO AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AND A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH. SOME CIRRUS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SHORTWAVE BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED AND FORCING WILL BE MEAGER. ECMWF REMAINS MORE AMPLIFIED AND
LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL FORCE THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AT SOME POINT LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT. A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS WILL LIMIT PRE-FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT TO AREAS FURTHER EAST IN OKLAHOMA. WITH THE
SLOWER/STRONGER ECMWF SOLUTION...A GRADUAL DEEPENING OF MOISTURE MAY
BE ENOUGH FOR SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN ALSO
DEPICTING A DEEPER MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH...HAVE INCREASED POPS
SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
JUST ENOUGH FOR MENTION IN THE WX GRIDS. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS BOTH PRE AND POST FRONTAL MAY END UP BEING THE
GREATEST IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND
RELATIVELY LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                77  53  85  53  85 /   5   5   0   0   5
BEAVER OK                  79  53  89  52  87 /   5   5   0   0   5
BOISE CITY OK              75  50  85  49  85 /   0   5   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  79  55  87  56  88 /   5   5   0   0   5
BOYS RANCH TX              78  50  87  50  87 /   5   5   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  78  51  86  51  85 /   5   5   0   0   5
CLARENDON TX               79  55  89  54  88 /   5   5   0   0   5
DALHART TX                 76  49  86  48  87 /   0   5   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  78  52  87  51  87 /   5   5   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                79  50  86  51  85 /   5   0   0   0   5
LIPSCOMB TX                79  56  87  55  88 /   5   5   5   0   5
PAMPA TX                   77  53  85  53  85 /   5   5   0   0   5
SHAMROCK TX                79  55  88  55  89 /   5   5   5   0   5
WELLINGTON TX              80  58  87  58  90 /   5   5   0   0   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/17





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