000
AXNT20 KNHC 120457
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Apr 12 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0455 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from South Carolina to
Cape Canaveral, Florida. A line of showers and isolated
thunderstorms are noted ahead of the frontal boundary. Strong to
gale-force S-SW winds are occurring ahead of the front to 70W and
north of 27N. Strong to near gale-force W winds are evident
behind the front to off NE Florida and north of 27N. Seas of 8-13
ft are present north of 27N and west of 70W, with the highest seas
near 31N77W. These conditions will improve by Fri afternoon as
the front moves eastward away from the area. The front will reach
from 31N74W to the NW Bahamas Fri morning, and from near Bermuda
to the central Bahamas Sat morning. The front will then stall and
dissipate through the remainder of the upcoming weekend.

Caribbean Gale Warning: A strong subtropical ridge over the NW
Atlantic will force fresh to near gale-force easterly winds
across the south-central Caribbean during the next several days.
Gale force winds are expected to pulse offshore Colombia on Fri
night through Sun night. Seas should peak near 12 ft during late
night/early morning hours of all three nights.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details
on the above GALE WARNINGS.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 02N19W. The ITCZ
extends from 02N19W to 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is
observed south of 04N and west of 31W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from SW Florida to NE Yucatan, producing
scattered showers over the Florida Straits. Fairly tranquil
weather conditions are evident behind the frontal boundary. The
weak pressure gradient across the Gulf of Mexico result in
moderate to locally fresh northerly winds in the eastern Gulf,
while moderate or weaker winds are found in the remainder of the
basin. Seas are 6-9 ft east of 90W and 4-7 ft west of 90W.

For the forecast, a cold front extends from Fort Myers, Florida to
the Yucatan Channel. Strong winds will prevail behind of the
front tonight in the eastern Gulf and dissipate by Fri morning.
Rough seas continue behind the front across the eastern Gulf and
will subside by Fri morning as the front moves SE of the area.
High pressure will build in the wake of the front with improving
conditions through the upcoming weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features for information on the Gale
Warning off NW Colombia.

A cold front entering the NW Caribbean Sea is producing a line of
showers and isolated thunderstorms ahead of the boundary, also
affecting western Cuba and the eastern Yucatan peninsula. The rest
of the Caribbean Sea is dominated by a 1036 mb high pressure
system located south of Newfoundland. The pressure gradient
between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in NW South
America result in strong to near gale-force easterly trade winds
in the south-central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 8-11 ft.
Fresh to strong easterly breezes and seas of 5-8 ft are found in
the north-central and NE Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh
easterly winds and seas of 4-7 ft are noted in the southeastern
Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will prevail across the south
central Caribbean, pulsing to near gale-force off the Colombia
coast tonight. Gale force winds are expected to pulse offshore
Colombia at night from Fri night through Sun night. Fresh to
strong winds in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola will
prevail Sat night and Sun night. Meanwhile, a cold front
stretching across the Yucatan Channel will stall and dissipate
tonight through Fri. This will bring moderate to locally fresh
winds and moderate seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features for information on the Gale
Warning off NE Florida.

Aside from the cold front described in the Special Features section,
the remainder of the tropical western Atlantic is dominated by a
strong subtropical ridge centered south of Newfoundland. A
dissipating stationary front stretches from 31N32W to 19N48W,
becoming a surface trough to the NE Caribbean. The pressure
gradient between the aforementioned ridge and surface trough
sustain fresh to strong NE-E winds north of the surface trough to
28N and between 42W and 68W. Seas in these waters are 7-10 ft.

Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 6-9 ft are present
south of 18N and west of 40W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds
and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front is moving off the NE
Florida coast and will continue moving south and east over the
next few days. Gale force southerly winds across the Florida
offshore waters will continue tonight ahead of the front mainly N
of 30N. Rough seas will accompany these winds. These conditions
will improve by Fri afternoon as the front moves eastward away
from the area. The front will reach from 31N74W to the NW Bahamas
Fri morning, and from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas Sat
morning. The front will then stall and dissipate through the
remainder of the upcoming weekend.


$$
Delgado