Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 101804
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
104 PM EST Wed Jan 10 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Strong surface high pressure will build across the central United
States by Thursday night, behind a cold front that will extend
from the Great Lakes SW to eastern Texas to NE Mexico. The front
is forecast to exit the coast of Texas early Friday, extend from
the Florida Panhandle to the Yucatan Peninsula Fri evening and
move across the Straits of Florida Sat evening. A strong pressure
gradient between the ridge and the front will lead to the
development of strong to gale force W-to-NW winds in the NW Gulf
early on Friday...extending to the SW Gulf during the evening
hours. See latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...THE MONSOON TROUGH/THE ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of The Ivory
Coast near 05N05W, to 03N12W. The ITCZ continues from 03N12W to
02N20W, to the Equator along 38W. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers from 03N southward between
11W and 14W. isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers
elsewhere from 08N southward between 09W and 42W.

One upper level cyclonic circulation center is in Senegal near
15N13W. A second upper level cyclonic circulation center is near
18N43W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 24N southward between 40W and 60W. broken to overcast
multilayered clouds cover the Atlantic Ocean from 10N to 23N
between 30W and 44W. rainshowers are possible from 08N to 22N
between 37W and 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough is digging through the area that encompasses
Florida, the easternmost sections of the Gulf of Mexico, and the
NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, including enveloping Cuba. Upper
level moisture that is accompanying this trough is covering
Florida, the Bahamas, Cuba, and the Atlantic Ocean from 60W
westward. A 1015 mb low pressure center is in the Gulf of Mexico
near 26N87W. One surface trough extends from the 1015 mb low
center, into the south central Gulf of Mexico. A second surface
trough extends from the 1015 mb low pressure center, toward SE
Louisiana. A third surface trough is in the waters that are
between the Bahamas and Florida, from Cuba near 22N77W, to 28N80W,
and curving beyond 32N79W. Precipitation: isolated moderate
rainshowers are from 84W eastward, including across Florida.
Broken to overcast low level clouds are elsewhere in the Gulf of
Mexico from 21N northward from 85W westward.

The 1015 mb low pressure center will drift SW today, while also
becoming a remnant trough, and then it will dissipate by early
Thursday. A strong cold front will enter the NW waters on
Thursday, rapidly shifting across the basin through the end of the
week. Gale-force winds are possible W of the front in the western
Gulf on Thursday night through Friday morning. A reinforcing
front will move through the eastern Gulf on Saturday. High pres
will build in the wake of the fronts for the remainder of the
weekend.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is in the westernmost part of the area, from NW
Cuba to eastern Honduras and NE Nicaragua. isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers are to the W and NW of the line that
runs from SE Cuba to 11N81W, to the east of SE Nicaragua. just to
the south of Cuba, from 19N northward between 79W and 81W. Other
rainshowers are possible from 80W westward.

A surface trough is in the SW corner of the area, along 11N75W-
Panama-08N84W, from NW Colombia westward, across Panama, into the
eastern Pacific Ocean. Rainshowers are possible from 11N
southward, from 76W westward.

Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere, from 77W eastward,
in areas of broken low level clouds. Many of these areas of clouds
are moving toward the W and NW.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 10/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.53 in
Freeport in the Bahamas, 0.38 in Montego Bay in Jamaica, 0.18 in
Guadeloupe, 0.10 in Trinidad, 0.06 in Kingston in Jamaica, 0.04 in
St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands, and 0.03 in San Juan in Puerto
Rico.

A western Caribbean Sea surface trough will drift NW through mid-
week. A cold front will move into the NW Caribbean on Friday, and
then it will stall from eastern Cuba to southern Costa Rica on
Saturday night through Sunday night. It is possible that gale-
force winds may develop in the SW Caribbean to the W of the front
late on Sunday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Residual moisture from the surface trough and frontal boundary of
the last few days, and other westward-moving broken low level
clouds, may help to support rainshowers across Hispaniola for the
next 24 hours or so. Moderate to fresh SE winds between Cuba and
Jamaica will become NE-to-E gentle-to- moderate winds tonight. A
cold front should move SE of the Yucatan Channel on Friday, with
winds becoming N moderate to fresh, N of 18N between 76W and 85W.

A cold front will move into the NW Caribbean Fri, then will stall
from eastern Cuba to southern Costa Rica Sat night through Sun
night. Expect upper level SW-to-W wind flow during the next 2
days. Expect middle level SE-to-S wind flow during the next 2
days. Expect 700 mb level SE wind flow during the next 2 days.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broken low level clouds and possible rainshowers are to the south
of the line that runs from 16N60W to 11N50W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Atlantic Ocean, from 10N
northward from 60W eastward. A 1033 mb high pressure center is
near 34N25W.

The current surface trough that is extending from just to the east
of Jacksonville to central Cuba will drift over Florida by
Thursday night. High pressure will build in the wake of the
trough. A cold front will move off the E coast of Florida on
Friday night, with a reinforcing front moving across the waters W
of 72W through Sun night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT



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