Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 080605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUL 08 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND THE ITCZ WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 10N29W TO 3N32W AND
MOVING W AT 15 KT. METEOSAT SAL TRACKING IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR
ENGULFING THE NORTHERN ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE WHILE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IS AHEAD OF THE AXIS COINCIDING WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 33W-37W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
11N46W TO 3N49W MOVING W AT 20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE
WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A LOW-LEVEL MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT
WHILE DRY AIR FROM THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER ENTRAINS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE WAVE. THIS IS LIMITING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF ITS AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE AND
WESTERN HONDURAS. ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM 21N87W TO 12N88W AND
MOVES NEAR 20 KT. THERE IS NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE AT THE TIME BEING INFLUENCED BY THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR AT
THE LOWER-LEVELS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 21N97W
TO 14N95W AND MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE WAVE IS GENERATING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS INLAND FROM
MEXICO CITY TO OAXACA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
9N25W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
5N34W TO 6N46W. IT THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE AT 6N50W TO
5N54W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N E OF 15W
AND FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 35W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

ALOFT...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ALABAMA SW TO EASTERN
MEXICO SUPPORTING A TROPICAL WAVE INLAND MEXICO. ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SEE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. THE AZORES HIGH EXTENDS A RIDGE
AXIS SW ACROSS THE GULF TO PROVIDE VARIABLE WINDS OF 5-15 KT.
DEEP LAYER MODERATE MOISTURE IS ACROSS MOST OF THE
BASIN...HOWEVER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH STRONG DEEP
LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR IS LIMITING CONVECTION TO ISOLATED
MODERATE S OF 26N W OF 87W AND N OF 26N BETWEEN 88W-92W. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS FAVORING
FAIR WEATHER.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

TROPICAL WAVE FORMERLY OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN HAS MOVED
INLAND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE AND WESTERN HONDURAS.
HOWEVER...LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE S OF 20N W OF
80W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BEING ANALYZED FROM OFFSHORE WATERS OF
NORTHERN-CENTRAL BAHAMAS SW ACROSS WESTERN CUBA. THIS AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CUBA AS WELL AS ADJACENT WATERS. THE AZORES HIGH IS
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS SW INTO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN TO SUPPORT
A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND EASTERLIES OF 20-30 KT S OF 17N
BETWEEN 67W-77W WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS BEING CLOSE TO THE
COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA COAST. WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE BASIN. OTHERWISE...A COMBINATION OF STRONG DEEP LAYER
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR AND DRY AIR FROM THE SAHARA KEEP THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN CONVECTIVE FREE. HOWEVER...DUST FROM THE
SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS SUPPORTING HAZE IN THIS REGION. NO MAJOR
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A DRY SAHARAN AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND SUPPRESSING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. DUST ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
AIRMASS...REPORTED ACROSS THE ISLAND...IS SUPPORTING HAZE IN THE
REGION. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

OVER THE SW N ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH
ANALYZED FROM 27N74W SW TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N81W. THIS AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS GENERATING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS
FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 72W-76W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ELSEWHERE FROM 22N-28N W OF 72W. FARTHER EAST OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N49W TO 25N51W WITH NO
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. OTHERWISE...BESIDES THE TROPICAL
WAVES ALREADY DISCUSSED...THE AZORES HIGH EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE BASIN N OF 13N WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER AND
VARIABLE WINDS OF 5-15 KT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



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