Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 222322
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
722 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave off the west African coast extends from 12N20W to
03N20W moving W at 20 kt. The SSMI TPW animation shows a surge of
moisture along the wave axis. A trough is also well depicted at
700 mb. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis.

A weak tropical wave extends from 13N37W to 03N38W moving W at
10-15 kt. Based on current SAL analysis from UW-CIMSS, african
dust surrounds the wave. As a result, only a few showers are
noted near the wave axis.

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean Sea. Its axis
extends from S Haiti near 18N72W to N Colombia near 10N73W, moving
W at 10-15 kt. The SSMI TPW animation shows a modest surge of
moisture along the wave axis. Scattered showers are within 120 nm
of the wave axis.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough enters the tropical Atlantic near 09N13W and
continues to 07N18W. The ITCZ extends from 07N21W to 05N37W, then
resumes west of a tropical wave at 05N39W and continues to the
coast of South America near 05N53W. Isolated moderate convection
is off the coast of western Africa from 03N-08N between 15W-24W.
Scattered showers are along the ITCZ from 04N-08N between 24W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 mb High is located over the W Atlantic near 29N65W. A
ridge axis extends W to N Florida. 10-15 kt SE surface winds are
over the Gulf of Mexico. A quasi-stationary front is along the
Louisiana coast. Widely scattered moderate convection is over the
NW and north central Gulf N of 25N between 87W-96W. Also,
scattered moderate convection is over the NE Florida near
Jacksonville. Elsewhere, isolated moderate convection is inland
over W Cuba. In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over
N Texas. Upper level diffluence is over the N Gulf N of 24N
enhancing convection. Expect in 24 hours for the tail end of a
front to extend from S Louisiana to S Texas with convection
mostly E of the front to as far as N Florida. Another late season
cold front will enter the NW Gulf early Wednesday followed by
fresh northerly winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean. Please see above.
Elsewhere, 15-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea.
Strongest winds are along the coast of N Colombia. Widely
scattered moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean, Panama,
and Costa Rica associated with the monsoon trough. Scattered
showers are also over E Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Puerto
Rico. Expect the tropical wave to move W over the next 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Daytime heating, local sea breezes and mountain upslope lifting
will combine with available moisture to produce scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon
and early evening hours. A tropical wave over Haiti will move W
over the next 24 hours.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1021 mb high is located over the W Atlantic near 29N65W. A cold
front is over the central Atlantic from 31N46W to 29N54W to beyond
31N62W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. A
prefrontal trough extends from 29N45W to 26N54W. Scattered showers
are within 60 nm of the trough. A 1021 mb high is centered over
the E Atlantic near 29N28W. Of note in the upper levels, a very
large upper level trough is over the central Atlantic enhancing
the cold front. A small embedded upper level low is also centered
near 25N51W enhancing showers. Expect in 24 hours for the cold
front to extend from 31N33W to 25N43W to 25N55W with showers.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa




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