Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 202338
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 4N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO
2N24W TO 3N42W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 27W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO FROM 28N88W TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AT 21N86W MOVING E.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA W OF 82W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A 1015 MB HIGH IS OVER
THE W GULF NEAR 24N94W WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. VARIABLE 5-10
KT WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE
SURFACE TROUGH TO BE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. EXPECT IN 48 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SE OVER
TEXAS AND REACH HOUSTON TEXAS WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
FROM 21N86W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS AT 17N86W. ELSEWHERE 10-25
KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN N OF 19N BETWEEN 82W-85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
OVER JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO GUATEMALA.
BANDS OF SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS THE SURFACE TROUGH TO DISSIPATE
AND FOR THE TRADEWINDS TO PREVAIL. ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO BE ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN TRADEWIND FLOW. CLEARING IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N68W. A STATIONARY
FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N49W TO 26N50W TO
25N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
FRONT. A 1016 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N58W. FURTHER E... A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM MOROCCO AT 31N9W TO THE CANARY ISLANDS
AT 29N14W TO 30N20W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE BAHAMAS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED NEAR 27N33W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DUE TO THE
FRONT. ALSO EXPECT THE FRONT OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS TO
DISSIPATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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