Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 152351

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
651 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.


A complex and elongated area of low pressure over the western
Atlantic will organize into an extratropical storm system as it
moves northeast to the central Atlantic over the next 24 hours.
The main low of 1006 mb is centered near 29N60W, with a stationary
front extending SW to a trailing low center of 1007 mb centered
near 25N68W. A surface trough extends SW of the southern low to
eastern Cuba. Numerous showers and embedded scattered
thunderstorms are within 500 nm east of the lows and fronts. The
stationary front will transition to a cold front between the
northern main low and the southern low this evening. Gale force
winds will develop over our area of discussion this evening N of
29N and east of the cold front and main low. These gale force
winds will propagate east ahead of the front over the discussion
waters through Thursday afternoon. See the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC for more

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to
08N22W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
08N22W to 08N35W to 09N47W. Scattered moderate convection is from
05N to 11N between 30W and 38W. Isolated moderate convection is
from 05N to 10N between 17W and 28W.



A surface ridge axis extends from the southeastern United States
to the northwestern Gulf of Mexico supporting moderate to fresh
northeast winds over the eastern Gulf, and gentle to moderate
winds over the western Gulf. A surface trough extends from 24N97W
to 20N92W supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms from
21N to 24N between 89W and 94W. Very little change is expected
over the next 48 hours. A strong cold front will cross the Gulf
beginning Saturday night.


A broad area of low pressure of 1007 mb is centered over the
central Caribbean near 16N76W, with a surface trough extending
from the low SW to near 10N81W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 10N to 18N between 69W and 84W. Fresh to strong SW winds are
within 120 nm E of the surface trough. Moderate to fresh NE winds
cover the Caribbean west of this feature. Mainly moderate SE winds
are elsewhere E of this feature. Over the next 24 hours convection
will continue over the central Caribbean as the low slowly moves
NE toward Hispaniola.


Scattered to numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are
expected to persist across the island the next few days as deep
moisture is pulled NE over the region due to an upper trough to
the W. Localized flooding and life-threatening mud slides are
possible during this time.


Please refer to the special features section for details
regarding the complex pair of low pressures over the western
Atlantic. Moderate to fresh NE winds cover the W Atlc to the west
of these features. A 1020 mb high is centered near 29N42W. Farther
east, a surface trough extends into our area of discussion near
31N26W to 27N30W. Isolated moderate convection is N of 28N
between 21W and 24W. Over the next 24 hours the special feature
complex system will move NE with ongoing convection.

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