Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
AXNT20 KNHC 191146
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE GONZALO IS CENTERED NEAR 47.6N 50.1W AT 19/1200 UTC OR
ABOUT 104 NM E OF ST. JOHNS NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING NE AT 45 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 969 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS N OF 46N BETWEEN 48W-56W. PLEASE SEE LATEST
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 40W
FROM 6N-16N MOVING W 5-10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND REMAINS BENEATH THE WESTERN
PORTION OF AN UPPER RIDGE. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 11N34W TO 14N39W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 38W-42W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 16N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 14N18W 9N19W 6N23W 6N31W TO
E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 8N36W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 6N42W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3N51W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE
FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 7N11W ALONG 4N23W TO 00N37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS INTO THE W ATLC TO JUST
S OF THE N GULF COAST SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM
ACROSS FLORIDA JUST S OF CEDAR KEY ALONG 28N87W TO OVER TEXAS
NEAR GALVESTON. THERE IS STILL NO SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT AS THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE AIR
ALOFT COVERS THE GULF E OF 90W WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
NW GULF. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE W
GULF NEAR TUXPAN TO THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM NEAR VERACRUZ TO
JUST S OF MATAMORES GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF LINE FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS ALONG 22N94W TO
THE YUCATAN NEAR 20N91W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER
CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME
DIFFUSE FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST LATE
TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N GULF TUE. AN
AREA OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SW GULF EARLY
THIS WEEK AND DRIFT E.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN TO 80W. THIS UPPER FLOW IS ADVECTING MOISTURE ACROSS
THE YUCATAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 19N-22N W OF 78W TO THE YUCATAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF
19N W OF 84W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS THROUGH A
WEAK UPPER LOW JUST N OF THE MONA PASSAGE TO OVER THE ABC
ISLANDS. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N BETWEEN 70W-75W AND OVER THE S
CARIBBEAN S OF THE ABC ISLANDS TO OVER VENEZUELA BETWEEN 66W-
69W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74W ALONG
12N80W TO ACROSS COSTA RICA NEAR 11N84W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N W OF 70W TO INLAND OVER
COLOMBIA AND TO THE COAST FROM PANAMA TO NICARAGUA. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUE.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER THE ISLAND THIS MORNING WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING OFFSHORE. THE
WEAK UPPER LOW N OF THE MONA PASSAGE IS GENERATING THE ABOVE
ACTIVITY. THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
TODAY THEN WEAKEN GIVING THE E CARIBBEAN AND HISPANIOLA W FLOW
ALOFT STARTING EARLY MON. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH
EARLY TUE AND COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING COULD PRODUCE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MON. AFTERNOON
SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT STARTING TUE AS THE LINGERING
MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTHWARD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HURRICANE GONZALO HAS MOVING PAST NEWFOUNDLAND. SEE SPECIAL
FEATURE ABOVE. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 63W THEN
NARROWS AS IT CONTINUES THROUGH A WEAK UPPER LOW JUST N OF THE
MONA PASSAGE INTO THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N76W TO ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR FLAGLER
BEACH TO JUST N OF CEDAR KEY CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 70W-
74W AND INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 28N67W TO 24N74W AND SECOND SURFACE TROUGH TO THE S
EXTENDS FROM 25N66W TO 21N74W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. A BROAD UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED
NEAR 25N52W SUPPORTING SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 28N49W
ALONG 25N52W THROUGH A WEAK 1011 MB LOW NEAR 23N56W TO 20N59W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
75 NM OF LINE FROM 29N48W 29N53W TO 26N56W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF THE LOW. A NARROW UPPER
RIDGE IS BETWEEN THE BROAD W ATLC UPPER TROUGH AND THE BROAD
CENTRAL ATLC UPPER LOW GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 26N62W TO 33N59W. AN
UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE E ATLC N OF 20N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS INTO THE REGION FROM A 1005 MB LOW NEAR 32N19W
ALONG 25N23W TO 23N30W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 14W-19W INCLUDING THE CANARY
ISLANDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 30N W OF THE FRONT TO 24W. W ATLC COLD FRONT
WILL EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL EARLY MON AND
WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS IT LIFTS N OF THE AREA THROUGH TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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