Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 110538

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
138 AM EDT Wed Oct 11 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.


Tropical Storm Ophelia is centered near 30.7N 37.6W at 11/0300
UTC about 682 nm southwest of the Azores, moving southeast at 5
kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Minimum
central pressure is 1002 mb. Bands of scattered moderate
convection are within 180 nm of the center. See the latest
Advisory/Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
for more details.


A tropical wave is in the east Atlantic with axis extending from
14N40W to 03N43W, moving west at 15-20 kt. The wave is in a moist
area, as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A surface trough is well
defined in scatterometer data. Scattered moderate convection is
observed along 09N where the wave meets the ITCZ.

A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with axis extending
from 21N69W to 11N70W, moving west at 15-20 kt. A surface and 700
mb trough are well defined with this wave. Isolated showers are
noted over the southern portion of the wave south of 13N.


The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to
05N27W. The ITCZ continues from 05N27W to 09N41W, then resumes
from 09N43W to 06N57W. Aside fro the convection related to the
tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is from 04N-09N
between 12W-30W.



A cold front off the coast of Texas and Mexico extends across the
northwest Gulf waters with isolated showers. To the east, a
surface trough is over the far east Gulf waters from 29N83W to
26N82W. Scattered showers are noted along this trough. Scattered
moderate convection prevails over the Bay of Campeche mainly south
of 21N between 91W-96W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to
moderate easterlies across the basin. Expect during the next 24-48
hours for the cold front to continue moving southeast across the
western Gulf with convection.


A tropical wave is moving into the central Caribbean. See the
section above for details. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to
moderate trades across the basin. An upper-level low centered N
of Hispaniola near 23N69W is enhancing convection over the
northeast Caribbean north of 16N and east of 68W. This activity is
affecting Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Expect the upper-
level low to move west over the next 48 hours. With this, the
convection will also move west. Little change is expected


Isolated showers are observed as a tropical wave extends along
the eastern portion of the island. Expect this convection  to
spread across the whole island during the next 48 hours.


Tropical Storm Ophelia is in the eastern Atlantic. Refer to the
section above for details. A tropical wave is moving across the
central Atlantic. See the section above for more information.
An upper-level low is located near 23N69W. This system is
reflected at the surface as a trough that extends north of Puerto
Rico from 26N63W to 11N70W. Scattered moderate convection is from
21N-28N between 57W-73W. Another surface trough extends from
24N54W to 18N58W. Scattered moderate convection is observed to the
east of the trough from 17N-27N between 45W-56W. Surface ridging
prevails elsewhere.

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