Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 160602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE EDOUARD IS CENTERED NEAR 29.0N 56.9W AT 16/0300Z UTC
OR ABOUT 453 NM ESE OF BERMUDA MOVING NW AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 963 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND EDOUARD IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION
IS MAINLY EAST OF THE CYCLONE CENTER FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 55W-
58W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 27N-34N
BETWEEN 55W-61W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 18N26W TO A 1010 MB LOW EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON
TROUGH NEAR 11N26W. THE APPROXIMATELY WESTWARD TRANSLATION SPEED
OF THE WAVE IS 20 KT. A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION OF MOISTURE DURING
THE LAST 24 HOURS IS NOTED IN THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY...WHICH ALONG
STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR ON THE NORTHERN WAVE
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT LACK OF CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
19N47W TO A 1015 MB LOW NEAR 17N47W TO 9N47W...MOVING WEST AT 20
KT. INTRUSION OF SAHARAN DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM KEEP IT MAINLY
CONVECTIVE FREE EXCEPT NEARBY THE LOW CENTER WHERE A REGION OF
UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORT A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION
AND TSTMS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 44W-50W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO
A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 11N26W TO 11N40W 8N50W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS
FROM 8N50W TO THE COAST OF SURINAME NEAR 6N56W. BESIDES THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N E OF 19W...AND FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN
28W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

OVERALL INSTABILITY CONTINUES ACROSS GREAT PORTIONS OF THE BASIN
DUE TO DEEP LAYER TROUGHINESS IN THE WESTERN BASIN AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN. AN INVERTED TROUGH
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG
27N95W TO 18N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DOMINATES ELSEWHERE IN THE BASIN SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE E-NE BASIN THAT IS ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH ON THE SW N
ATLC NEAR 28N75W. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ENHANCES SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS WITHIN 200 NM OF THE NORTHERN GULF
COASTLINE EAST OF 93W. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PREVAIL ON THE
WESTERN BASIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. THE FORMER STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES WILL TRANSITION INTO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS FLORIDA THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION IS SUPPORTING TRADES
OF 10-15 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN. EXCEPT FOR THE NW AND SW
CARIBBEAN WHERE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
PREVAILS SUPPORTING CONVECTION...THE REMAINDER BASIN IS BEING
INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR AND STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL
SHEAR...THUS SUPPORTING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE ON THE NW BASIN FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 78W-85W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE S OF 13N W OF
78W. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THE REGION ALONG WITH MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER COASTAL
WATERS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT. BESIDES
THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS INDUCED BY DAYTIME HEATING...NO
DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

HURRICANE EDOUARD AND TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE THE MAIN FEATURES
ACROSS THE BASIN. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES AND TROPICAL WAVES
SECTIONS ABOVE. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO EXTENDS NE INTO THE SW N ATLC TO SUPPORT A 1021 MB
HIGH NEAR 29N75W. OTHERWISE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
EASTERN ATLC SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT STARTS TO DISSIPATE IN
THE AREA OF DISCUSSION ALONG 30N17W TO 28N22W WITH NO CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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