Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 182343

805 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/Monsoon Trough...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to
05N16W to 05N24W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis
extends from 05N24W to 06N32W to 04N51W. Isolated moderate
convection is from 03N to 06N between 17W and 30W...and from 04N
to 09N between 36W and 51W.


Gulf of Mexico...
Generally westerly flow aloft noted on water vapor imagery over
much of the Gulf coupled with weak low-level moisture
convergence associated with a surface trough analyzed from
25N91W to a weak 1012 mb low near 30N88W is supporting isolated
showers and tstms across portions of the eastern Gulf in the
vicinity of 27N85W and farther west off the coast of Mexico near
23N97W and off the coast of Texas in the vicinity of Corpus
Christi. These areas of convection precede a stationary front
analyzed across southern Mississippi...Louisiana...and coastal
Texas. The front is forecast to remain along the coastal plain
and near-shore waters dissipating gradually through Thursday.
Otherwise...moderate to occasional fresh E-SE return flow is
expected across western portions of the basin through Friday
with the next weak frontal boundary forecast to emerge off the
southwest Louisiana and Texas coast Friday afternoon and quickly
become stationary once again along 30N through the weekend.

Caribbean Sea...
A relatively strong surface ridge prevails across the central
North Atlc anchored by a 1031 mb high centered near 35N33W. The
associated ridge axis extends from the high southwest to the NE
Caribbean producing a strengthened pressure gradient across
central portions of the basin resulting in strong to near gale
trades generally S of 16N between 68W and 78W. Otherwise...
moderate to fresh trades are occurring elsewhere across portions
of the eastern and far western Caribbean. Most of the convection
this evening is confined across portions of Central America and
the adjacent coastal waters of Costa Rica and Panama. In
addition...peak daytime heating and instability continues to
support scattered showers and tstms across central and eastern
Cuba this evening.

Mid-level ridging has weakened slightly...however fair weather
prevails across the island as dry NW flow aloft prevails this
evening. Moderate to fresh breeze conditions are expected across
the adjacent coastal waters of the Caribbean Sea and Atlc Ocean.

Atlantic Ocean...
A mid-level shortwave trough is moving NE over the SW North Atlc
noted on water vapor imagery in the vicinity of 33N73W. The
shortwave supports a 1010 mb low centered off the coast of the
Carolinas near 33N76W and the associated cold front extending
from the low to the southern Georgia coast near Savannah.
Scattered showers and tstms are occurring well to the south and
east of the low and front from 23N to 28N W of 73W and from 28N
to 32N between 69W and 76W. Otherwise...a broad area of high
pressure prevails across the remainder of the central and
eastern Atlc anchored by a 1031 mb high centered near 35N33W
with mostly fair weather conditions expected.

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