Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 131444 CCA

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST Tue Feb 13 2018

Corrected surface analysis time

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.


Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight gradient between a strong
surface ridge over the north Atlantic Ocean and lower pressure
in northern South America will continue to support gale-force
winds near the coast of Colombia through Thu morning, then pulse
to minimal gale each night into the weekend. Seas associated with
these gale conditions are forecast to be 14 to 18 ft, subsiding
some late in the week. Please read the latest NHC High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more


The Monsoon Trough axis extends southwestward from the coast of
Africa near 05N10W and crosses the equator near 19W. The ITCZ is
located to the S of the equator. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is within 60 nm S of the axis between 09W-12W.



A stationary front extends from just W of Apalachicola Florida to
27N91W, where it transitions to a warm front to 24N95W to 22N95W
and becomes a stationary front again to inland the coast of
Mexico near Coatzacoalcos. A trough is ahead of the frontal
boundary from 23N92W to inland Mexico just W of Nuevo Progreso,
while another trough extends from just W of the front near 25N95W
northwestward to near Brownsville, Texas. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are over portions of the NW and W central
sections of the Gulf of Mexico. Similar activity is noted along
and within 60 nm to the E of the trough that is ahead of the
front. Isolated showers in very moist moderate to fresh E flow are
over portions of the eastern gulf and Straits of Florida. High
pressure W of the front is surging southward over the NW Gulf and
across eastern Mexico. Strong northerly winds are S of 21N near
the coast of Mexico. Moist southerly flow moving over the NE Gulf
ahead of the front in response to a mid to upper level trough
sliding eastward across the NE Gulf is producing widespread
showers north of 25N east of the trough. The front will weaken
today, with the frontal remnants slowly lifting back northward as
a warm front through this evening.


Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details
about the gale-force winds expected near the coast of Colombia.

Satellite water vapor imagery shows dry and stable atmospheric
conditions across the basin. Patches of shallow trade wind
showers, moving rather quickly westward, are advecting westward
east of 75W, including the Lesser Antilles. A strong ridge N of
the area anchored by a 1033 mb high over the central Atlc near
32N53W extends across the northern half of the Caribbean, with the
associated pressure gradient supporting fresh to strong trade
winds east of 80W. Seas are 14 to 18 ft near Colombia and 8 to 12
ft elsewhere. Strong winds are also occurring through the Atlc
passages, and are expected to continue through at least Wed.


Broad surface high pressure over the area is associated with a
1033 mb centered over the N central Atlantic near 32N53W and
moving southwestward is supporting fresh to strong E-NE winds
over most of the region, except close to the ridge axis N of 25N.
Isolated trade wind showers, moving quickly westward, are noted
from 14N to 20N and to the W of 52W, including over much of the
Leeward Islands. This shower activity will move across the Leeward
Islands through late this afternoon or early this evening. Other
isolated shower activity moving rapidly westward in moderate to
fresh moist easterly flow are seen S of 26N and W of 57W. This
activity is moving over the waters between the Bahamas and Cuba
as well as across the Straits of Florida.

A cold front along 31N and W of 76W as of 09Z will approach 30N
Tue night, then become stationary across the central Atlantic Wed
and Thu. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms along and
within about 60 nm S of this frontal W of 77W will continue rather
active through tonight as an upper level trough shifts eastward
from the NE Gulf. The next cold front is forecast to move over
the NW forecast waters by early on Sat morning.

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