Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS
AXNT20 KNHC 220526
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
126 AM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
A tight pressure gradient between a broad low pressure system
centered near 35N44W and an area of high pressure to the west is
supporting gale-force winds north of 29N between 42W and 48W. Seas
in this area will range between 12 to 17 ft through the gale
event. These conditions will continue through tonight, ending by
22/0600 UTC. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast product
under the WMO header FZNT02 KNHC and under the AWIPS header
MIAHSFAT2 for further details.
The Monsoon Trough extends across the western Africa coast from
11N15W to 04N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues
from 04N18W to 00N30W to 01N38W to the South American near
02S45W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 01S-07N
between 10W-18W, and from 05S-04N between 20W-50W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1020 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 29N67W.
Surface ridging extends W to E Texas near 30N94W producing 10-20
kt E to SE winds over the Gulf of Mexico with strongest winds
over the SE Gulf, and weakest winds over the NE Gulf. Radar
imagery shows scattered showers over the SE Gulf and the Straits
of Florida. Mostly fair weather is over the remainder of the Gulf.
In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over Texas
supporting a cold front near Dallas Texas. An upper level ridge is
over the Gulf with axis along 80W. Upper level moisture is over
the SE Gulf. Strong subsidence is over the remainder of the Gulf.
Expect the Texas cold front to be over the NW Gulf in 24 hours
with scattered showers. Also expect scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms to persist over the SE Gulf for the next 24 hours.
A surface trough is over the W Caribbean from 18N80W to 12N80W.
Widely scattered moderate convection and scattered showers are
over the central Caribbean N of 15N, and over the W Caribbean N of
20N, to include Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba. Further W, a
surface trough is over the Yucatan Peninsula from 21N87W to 17N89W
producing a wind shift. 20 kt SE wind are noted over the north
central Caribbean. In the upper levels, mostly zonal flow is
noted. Upper level moisture is over the central Caribbean N of 15N,
and over the W Caribbean N of 20N. Strong subsidence is over the
SE Caribbean. Expect over the next 24 hours for additional
scattered showers to be over Puerto Rico, and the Leeward Islands.
Expect little change elsewhere.
Presently scattered showers are over Hispaniola. Expect Widely
scattered moderate convection and scattered showers over the
island for the next 24 hours. Expect the heaviest convection over
the afternoon and evening hours, during maximum heating.
Gale force winds are over a small area of the central Atlantic
for a few more hours. See above. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are over the Bahamas. A 1020 mb high is centered
over the W Atlantic near 29N67W. The tail end of a stationary
front is over the central Atlantic from 31N37W to 21N45W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 27N-30N between 37W-40W.
Scattered showers are elsewhere within 60 nm of the front. A 1020
mb high is centered W of the Canary Islands near 30N21W. Of note
in the upper levels, a large upper level low is centered over the
central Atlantic near 39N46W enhancing convection mostly E of the
center. Expect over the next 24 hours for scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms to persist over the Bahamas. Also expect
little change over the central Atlantic.
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