Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 101022

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
522 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.

A cold front extends across the SW North Atlc waters from 32N70W
S-SW to eastern Cuba near 21N77W then to offshore of the coast of
Nicaragua near 12N82W. Strong high pressure continues to build in
N and W of the front across western Cuba...the NW Caribbean
Sea...and much of Central America this morning resulting in near
gale to gale force N winds generally S of 17N W of the front.
As the front creeps eastward and eventually begins to stall
through Monday...the near gale to gale force N winds are expected
to bleed southward along the NE Honduras coast and slip along the
Nicaragua coast. By Tuesday...the remaining boundary will extend
from the Windward Passage region to the coast of Costa Rica with
fresh to strong N winds continuing to diminish gradually through
mid-week. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 07N12W to
05N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
05N18W to 04N36W to the Equator near 46W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is from the Equator to 05N between the Prime
Meridian and 20W.


A surface ridge axis extends across northern Mexico and the
Yucatan peninsula anchored by a pair of 1033 mb highs centered
near 24N101W. The Special Features cold front has exited the
basin and remains across the SW North Atlc and western Caribbean
Sea waters this morning. Gentle to moderate N winds are noted W
of 90W...and moderate to fresh winds are noted E of 90W. The
ridging will build in across the northern Gulf through Monday with
generally gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds expected across
much of the basin. By Tuesday...the next weak cold front will
emerge off the SE CONUS coast introducing a brief period of fresh
W-NW winds to the north-central and eastern waters. The front
will be quick to clear east of the basin with moderate northerly
winds prevailing Wednesday into Thursday.

The primary feature across the basin is the cold front extending
across the western waters generating the near gale to gale force
northerly winds. A pre-frontal surface trough extends from 11N79W
to 18N79W and along with the front supports scattered showers and
tstms occurring generally between 74W-84W...on either side of the
cold front. Much of this convection is supported aloft by a
divergent upper level pattern with south-southwesterly flow
occurring between a middle to upper level trough over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico supporting the cold front and an upper level
anticyclone anchored over the central Caribbean near 15N73W. East
of the anticyclonic circulation...dry northerly flow prevails
providing overall stability to the central and eastern Caribbean
this morning. A few isolated showers are noted on satellite
imagery across the NE Caribbean...but remain quick-moving and
embedded within moderate to occasional fresh trades. Other
isolated showers are occurring across the SE Caribbean stretching
from Trinidad to the ABC Islands. The front is forecast to stall
across the western Caribbean Sunday and begin to gradually weaken
through mid-week.

Fair weather conditions prevail across the island this morning as
a surface high centered in the central Atlc extends ridging
across the area. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring across
eastern Cuba and the adjacent coastal waters as a cold front is
expected to stall from the Windward Passage region to the SW
Caribbean through Monday.

Southwesterly flow aloft is noted on water vapor imagery over the
SW North Atlc between a middle to upper level trough over the
eastern CONUS and Florida peninsula and an upper level ridge
anchored over the central Caribbean Sea. The troughing supports
the Special Features cold front which extends from 32N70W to
eastern Cuba near 21N77W. Scattered showers and tstms are
occurring generally from 20N-32N between 66W-77W. Otherwise...the
remainder of the SW North Atlc waters are under the influence of
a surface ridge axis extending from 32N55W to 22N72W and ridging
building in west of the cold front across the Florida peninsula
and far western waters off the coast of Georgia. Lastly...water
vapor imagery indicates a cut-off middle to upper level low
centered near 25N42W that continues to slowly retrograde. A
surface trough extends from 18N43W to 30N40W providing focus for
scattered showers and widely scattered tstms from 18N-30N between
31W-44W near and E of the trough axis. The trough is forecast to
drift westward across the central Atlc through Monday.

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