Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 181113

805 AM EDT WED MAY 18 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends over western Africa and into the east
Tropical Atlantic near 11N16W along 7N15W to 5N20W where the
ITCZ begins and continues along 4N30W 4N45W to inland over South
America near 2N51W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is within 75 NM of a line from 7N38W to 5N46W.
Clusters of scattered moderate convection are from 3N-7N east of
18W to across the Prime Meridian and within 45 nm of a line from
6N32W to 7N37W.



A shortwave upper trough extends from Georgia across the Florida
peninsula to Grand Bahama Island generating across the east Gulf
scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms north of 23N east of
88W. A second shortwave upper trough is over central Texas to
northeast Mexico generating scattered showers/isolated
thunderstorms inland and west of line from central Louisiana
near 30N92W to northeast Mexico near 25N97W. A fast-moving
surface trough extends from 27N88W to 23N93W. A weak surface
ridge covers the far east Gulf anchored in the west-central
Atlantic. Weak surface ridge will maintain southeast return flow
over the Gulf through the end of the week. A weak frontal
boundary along the northern Gulf coast will stall today then
dissipate Thursday. The next front will enter the Gulf Saturday.


West to northwest flow aloft dominates the Caribbean this
morning. Isolated showers are possible over the southwest
Caribbean south of line from Nicaragua near 12N84W to Colombia
near 10N76W. Surface ridge over the west Atlantic will maintain
fresh to strong trade winds primarily over the Gulf of Honduras
and the central Caribbean through the end of the week.
Otherwise, moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere.


Skies have cleared across the island this morning. Moisture will
remain limited through the end of the week, but afternoon
showers and thunderstorms could still develop due to the strong
easterly trade winds coupled with daytime heating.


A shortwave upper trough extends from Georgia across the Florida
peninsula to Grand Bahama Island generating scattered showers/
isolated thunderstorms across the far west Atlantic north of 25N
between 74W-80W and across southern Florida between Lake
Okeechobee and the upper Florida Keys. This activity is enhanced
by an upper ridge that extends from Hispaniola over the west
Atlantic to beyond 32N66W. A weakening stationary front extends
into the central Atlantic near 32N52W to 31N56W. The remainder
of the Atlantic is dominated by a broad surface ridge anchored
by a 1030 mb high southwest of the Azores and a weaker 1028 mb
high near 33N51W extending a ridge axis southwest over the far
east Gulf of Mexico. A weak cold front will move across the
northern waters of the west Atlantic today then stall Thursday
and Friday as it weakens.

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