Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 120450
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Mar 12 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western and Central Atlantic Significant Swell:
Several recent altimeter satellite passes over the past several
hours indicated wave heights ranging from 12 to 18 ft from 29N to
31N between 60W and 75W. These large combined seas are primarily
due to NW swell related to deep 984 mb low pressure over Nova
Scotia. The swath of combined seas in excess of 12 ft will reach
as far south as 25N between 45W and 65W by late Tue, between 35W
and 60W north of 25N by late Wed, then will diminish in areal
extent and shift northeast of the discussion area through late
Fri.

Caribbean Gale Warning:
A tight pressure gradient between 1007 mb low pressure over
northern Colombia and 1024 mb high pressure over the southeastern
United States is supporting strong to near-gale force winds across
much of the south-central Caribbean. Local effects off the coast
of Colombia are providing an additional influence to support 30 to
40 kt winds within 90 nm of the coast between Cartagena and
Barranquilla. These gale force winds were confirmed by a 0240 UTC
scatterometer satellite pass. Associated seas are likely 10 ft
currently, but will build to at least 12 ft overnight.

Mariners need to monitor these hazardous marine conditions and
plan their route accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas and
Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center
at websites:
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic over the coast of Senegal
near 11N15W to 00N20W, where it transitions to the ITCZ near
05N37W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 02N to 04N
between 12W and 19W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge extends the northern Gulf, anchored by 1024
mb high pressure over the lower Mississippi Valley. A surface
trough reaches from the west coast of the Yucatan peninsula into
the central Gulf. A recent scatterometer pass indicated fresh
winds off the Yucatan coast associated with the trough. Combined
seas are estimated to be 3 to 5 ft in this area. Gentle to
moderate winds are noted elsewhere, with 2 to 4 ft seas. No major
areas of fog/haze or showers/thunderstorms are evident at this
time.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf waters through
the week. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas
will prevail through Wed, then winds will increase to moderate
to fresh speeds over the west-central Gulf Thu through Fri
night. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse near and to the
NW of the Yucatan Peninsula each night and early morning hours
due to local effects.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see SPECIAL FEATURES section about an upcoming Gale
Warning.

A stationary front reaches from central Cuba to Cozumel, Mexico.
Buoy and scatterometer satellite data indicate fresh to strong
winds over the south-central Caribbean, and moderate winds
elsewhere, except for fresh N to NE winds in the Windward Passage.
As described above in the Special Features section, 8 to 10 ft
seas are likely off Colombia where the gale force winds are
ongoing. Combined seas are 5 to 7 ft elsewhere over the south-
central Caribbean, and 3 to 5 ft over the remainder of the basin.
No major convection is evident across the basin at this time.

For the forecast, high pressure building N of the area will support
fresh to strong winds across the south central Caribbean. Winds
off Colombia will pulse to gale-force at night through Fri.
Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see SPECIAL FEATURES section at the beginning about
Significant Swells.

A cold front extends from 31N55W to central Cuba. Another cold
front reaches southwestward from the Azores across 31N31W to
near 28N35W. Farther west, 1021 mb high pressure center is north
of the Cabo Verde Islands near 22N26W. Other than the Significant
Swell area mentioned in the Special Features section, fresh to
strong W to NW winds and seas at 7 to 11 ft are present behind the
first cold front. Fresh to strong southerly winds and 8 to 10 ft
seas are found near the second cold front. Gentle to moderate
winds and 5 to 7 ft combined seas are noted over the remainder of
the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
continue to move eastward across the forecast waters through Wed
while becoming stationary just N of the Greater Antilles. The
front is forecast to dissipate over the same area on Thu. Strong
to near-gale force winds and rough to very rough seas will
accompany the front mainly north of 27N. Winds will diminish from
west to east into mid week as high pressure builds in the wake of
the front. Combined seas in excess of 8 ft may linger east of 70W
through mid week due to associated northerly swell.

$$
Christensen


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