Tropical Weather Discussion
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531
AXNT20 KNHC 190530
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1230 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from 05N19W, to
the Equator along 33W, to Brazil near 03S40W. Convective
precipitation: Scattered moderate to strong from 04N southward
between 11W and 17W. Isolated moderate to locally strong from 05N
southward between 17W and South America.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A middle level-to-upper level cyclonic circulation center is in
Kentucky. Cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from 25N
northward. Upper level SW wind flow is present elsewhere. A middle
level-to-upper level ridge is along 71W/72W. A warm front extends
from a north central Texas 1005 mb low pressure center, through
southern Louisiana, to a 1012 mb Florida Panhandle low pressure
center. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 27N
northward from 87W eastward. Rainshowers are possible also from
27N southward from 87W eastward.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: KEMK, KEIR, and KSPR.

IFR: KMZG, KBBF, KBQX, KXIH, KHHV, KVAF, KHQI, and KGRY.

MVFR: KGUL, KEHC, KGHB, and KATP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR, at a minimum, everywhere along the Texas Gulf coast
and in the coastal plains. LIFR in Rockport and Port Lavaca. IFR
in some cases, from Bay City northward. LOUISIANA: LIFR from New
Iberia southward and from Patterson westward. MISSISSIPPI: IFR in
McComb. LIFR in Pascagoula. ALABAMA: IFR in Gulf Shores. MVFR in
Dothan. FLORIDA: LIFR from Panama City westward. IFR in
Apalachicola. MVFR in Tallahassee and Perry and Cross City. IFR at
the Tampa Executive Airport. light rain in the Ft.Myers
metropolitan area.

...FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN, INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...

Deep layer cyclonic wind flow, with a central Atlantic Ocean
trough, covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between 40W
and 70W. A cold front passes through 32N46W in the Atlantic
Ocean, to 25N50W and 20N61W. The cold front is dissipating from
20N61W, into the Windward Passage. Convective precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong in the Atlantic Ocean
within 30 nm to 45 nm on either side of the line that passes
through 32N44W to 28N46W to 24N50W, and from 29N northward between
41W and 43W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere within 240 nm to
the NW of the line 25N46W 20N56W 19N68W, and in the remainder of
the area from 10N northward between 30W and 60W.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad middle level-to-upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans
the entire Caribbean Sea. High level clouds are moving through the
NW corner from 14N northward from Jamaica westward, and across
the Greater Antilles.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery elsewhere across the area.

Rainshowers are possible elsewhere across the Caribbean Sea, from
19N southward between 80W and 84W, from 14N northward between 70W
and 80W, and from 70W eastward, in areas of broken low level
clouds.

The 24-hour rainfall amounts, for the period ending at 19/0000
UTC... according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.02 in Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level NW wind flow is moving across the area. NE-to-E wind
flow is present from 600 mb to 800 mb. Comparatively drier air in
subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery across Hispaniola.
Convective precipitation: Rainshowers are possible inland, and in
the coastal waters.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti, VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo
Domingo/La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago/Puerto Plato: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that NW wind flow, with a
ridge, will move across the area during the first 30 hours of the
48-hour forecast period. NW wind flow, with a trough, will move
across Hispaniola during the rest of the time. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 500 MB shows that day one will start with an
anticyclonic circulation center that will be along the south
central coast of the Dominican Republic. The anticyclonic center
will move to the south of Hispaniola, spreading westerly wind flow
across the area, for the rest of day one. A trough will approach
Hispaniola from the northwest. The trough will move across the
area, leaving more NW and N wind flow for Hispaniola during day
two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that day one will
start with an anticyclonic circulation center along the northern
coast of Hispaniola, followed by a col point across the area for
12 hours or so, followed by anticyclonic wind flow with the
eastern end of an east-to-west oriented ridge. Expect NW-to-N wind
flow with a ridge, for day two.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Middle level to upper level cyclonic wind flow with a trough now
spans parts of Africa from 20N from 20W eastward. A middle level
to upper level trough extends from a 24N30W cyclonic circulation
center, to 21N28W 14N27W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers
are possible from 13N to 20N between Africa and 28W.

A surface ridge passes through 32N31W, to 25N40W, 20N50W, and
16N68W. A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 27N68W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean to the northwest
of the cold front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT



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