Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 211158
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA AND
SIERRA LEONE NEAR 9N13W TO 6N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N20W
TO 4N35W 5N40W AND 5N51W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 11N BETWEEN 9W
AND 24W...AND FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 24W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE NORTHWEST OF 31N77W 26N90W 23N98W.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE COVER THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE 31N77W 23N98W LINE.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA 1026 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KMZG...KXIH...
KVBS...KVAF...KEMK...KGUL...KHQI...KGBK...KATP...KIPN...AND
KIKT...AND KVOA.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS...AREAS OF RAIN...AND PATCHY FOG COVER
THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE
BEING OBSERVED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF LOUISIANA.
VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 2 MILES AND FOG ARE BEING REPORTED IN GULF
SHORES ALABAMA...AND IN PENSACOLA FLORIDA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE FORT MYERS FLORIDA
METROPOLITAN AREA. LIGHT RAIN IS BEING OBSERVED IN NAPLES
FLORIDA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS. LIGHT RAIN IS BEING REPORTED FROM HOMESTEAD
FLORIDA TO FORT LAUDERDALE.

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N57W TO 32N60W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 32N60W TO 30N65W 27N70W...TO THE BAHAMAS AND
ANDROS ISLAND...ACROSS CUBA NEAR 23N81W...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 21N84W. A SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES FROM 21N84W TO 19N86W TO 16N88W IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD TO HONDURAS FROM 85W WESTWARD TO LAND. CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTI-
LAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N53W TO 26N70W 23N80W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 240 NM TO 300 NM
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE 32N53W 23N80W LINE.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 13N64W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 13N64W
CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 8N
IN VENEZUELA TO 25N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 56W AND 71W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 50W AND 59W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 12N TO
17N BETWEEN 58W AND 60W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 66W.
ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 80W
EASTWARD. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
20N TO 29N BETWEEN 50W AND 64W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 17N79W...ABOUT 90 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN
66W AND 84W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
21/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.78 IN HAVANA
CUBA...0.87 IN CURACAO...0.40 IN GUADELOUPE...AND 0.15 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N FROM 74W IN COLOMBIA...
BEYOND 86W IN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
12N SOUTHWARD FROM 76W WESTWARD. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IS
IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN OF WESTERN
PANAMA AND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA BETWEEN 81W AND 86W.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 17N79W...ABOUT 90 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 13N64W.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 13N64W CENTER
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 8N IN
VENEZUELA TO 25N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 56W AND 71W.
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 17N79W
ANTICYCLONIC CENTER IS MERGING WITH EAST-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW
THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 13N64W CYCLONIC CENTER...AND THEN
MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE
APPEARS IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...BETWEEN THE 14N63W CYCLONIC
CENTER AND JAMAICA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED
FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO PUNTA CANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS
BEING OBSERVED IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW
WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...AS AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA. THE WIND FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY TOWARD THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER EVENTUALLY SHIFTS TO A
POSITION THAT IS TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL REACH
HISPANIOLA...BEING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
CUBA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD
EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...AS HISPANIOLA WILL BE
ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CANARY
ISLAND 15N28W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 20N20W...TO THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND 13N30W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM
13N30W 16N40W AND 18N44W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A 1003 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N15W IN THE CANARY ISLANDS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE INLAND AND IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 22N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 7W AND 15W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO FROM 21N NORTHWARD BETWEEN LAND
AND 25W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
21/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.35 IN
BERMUDA.

A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N45W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 70W...AWAY FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS ALONG 32N57W 26N74W...
BEYOND 23N80W AT THE COAST OF CUBA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



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