Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 161204
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO AT 16/1200 UTC IS NEAR 25.5N
68.7W. THE CENTER OF GONZALO IS ABOUT 456 NM TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360
DEGREES 8 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940
MB. THE MAXIMUM ESTIMATED WIND SPEEDS ARE 120 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 140 KNOTS. THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR BERMUDA. PUBLIC ADVISORIES FOR HURRICANE GONZALO ARE
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCPAT3. FORECAST/ADVISORIES FOR HURRICANE GONZALO ARE ISSUED
UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 23N TO 27N
BETWEEN 66W AND 70W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
ELSEWHERE FROM 22N TO 28N BETWEEN 64W AND 70W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 32N BETWEEN
60W AND 70W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W FROM 15N SOUTHWARD.
A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 9N. THE
WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 22W AND
30W...AND FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 27W AND 30W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 16N46W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 13N50W AND 13N55W.
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 22N43W TO 16N50W
TO 10N55W...TO THE CENTRAL COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUYANA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 14N TO 19N
BETWEEN 40W AND 44W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 40W
AND 42W...AND FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 47W AND 54W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 21N
BETWEEN 38W AND 47W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 8N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 53W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF
SENEGAL AND GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W 10N20W...TO A 1012 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 9N27W...TO 10N37W. THE ITCZ IS NOT
PRESENT AT THIS TIME. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 17W AND 23W...AND FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN
23W AND 28W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
ELSEWHERE FROM 14N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 10W AND 36W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE EASTERN
U.S.A....THROUGH GEORGIA...INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES...
AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N75W...TO 27N78W 24N83W 24N90W
22N98W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS PASSING THROUGH
32N77W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTH FLORIDA...TO 24N84W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND TO 23N88W. THE FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY NEAR 23N88W...AND IT CONTINUES TO 22N93W...AND TO
18N93W IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 32N74W 30N75W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N73W 26N76W 23N81W 22N90W...INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. NUMEROUS STRONG
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 17N TO 20N
BETWEEN 92W AND 95W INCLUDING IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 30N75W 26N77W 24N81W 22N87W. NUMEROUS STRONG IS
IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS...AND IN PARTS OF BELIZE.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 1018 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N92W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

NO LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THIS TIME.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED FROM BROOKSVILLE TO
THE TAMPA/ST. PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING
SMALLER COMMUNITIES...AND AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST
FLORIDA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG
20N67W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...CUTTING RIGHT THROUGH THE CENTER
OF HISPANIOLA...TO 17N74W 14N76W AND 9N77W IN THE GULF OF URABA
OF COLOMBIA. THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IS COMPARATIVELY FLAT
AND WEAK ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE SURFACE PRESSURES ARE
BETWEEN 1012 MB AND 1016 MB...WITH HURRICANE GONZALO CONTINUING
ITS NORTHWARD TRACK.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
16/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.93 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 8N80W IN
PANAMA...CONTINUING NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND 80W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF URABA OF
COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE IS ELSEWHERE FROM 16N SOUTHWARD FROM
67W WESTWARD TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
HISPANIOLA-TO-GULF OF URABA TROUGH ALSO PASSES RIGHT THROUGH
THIS AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHEAST OF 9N85W 3N79W.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS
HISPANIOLA...AND IT ALSO COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. A
TROUGH IS ALONG 20N67W...CUTTING RIGHT THROUGH THE CENTER OF
HISPANIOLA...TO 17N74W 14N76W AND 9N77W IN THE GULF OF URABA OF
COLOMBIA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND 76W...INCLUDING IN
THE WATERS THAT ARE AROUND HISPANIOLA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS/PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THIS TIME
AT VARIOUS SITES THAT ARE AROUND THE ISLAND.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO COVER HISPANIOLA AND THE
AREA THAT IS AROUND HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A
TROUGH REMAINS FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
MOVES FROM PUERTO RICO WESTWARD TO HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS
THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE AWAY AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A RIDGE WILL COVER
HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME OF THE FORECAST. AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS FORECAST TO BE ON TOP OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO
31N40W...CURVING TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR
26N48W...AND CONTINUING TO 20N46W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N24W TO 28N30W...TO A 1008 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N45W...TO 22N52W. THE FRONT
BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 22N52W TO 22N58W AND 25N62W.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE THAT IS AROUND THE 26N48W
CYCLONIC CENTER...AND TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 21N TO 28N BETWEEN
42W AND 50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN
30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N22W 27N27W 26N35W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N12W 25N30W 20N47W 20N60W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 22N21W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
14N...INCLUDING IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO 30N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 30W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 16N TO 29N BETWEEN 12W AND 22W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N10W TO A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N18W...TO 19N30W.

ONE SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N45W TO 30N34W. A SECOND
RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N56W TO 28N60W. THIS RIDGE PASSES BETWEEN
THE AREA OF THE 32N24W 25N62W FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND HURRICANE
GONZALO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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