Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 201735

205 PM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.


The Monsoon Trough extends over western Africa and into the east
Tropical Atlantic near 14N17W to 07N20W where the ITCZ begins
and then extends to 06N35W to the coast of South America near
04N51W. Isolated moderate convection is from 05N-08N between 26W-



A stationary front continues across the NW Gulf waters extending
from 26N97W to 30N93W. To the E, squall line extends from 28N86W
to 30N85W. In between these features...a diffluent flow aloft
supports an area of scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms N of 28N between 85W and 92W. To the SW, a surface
trough was analyzed over the Bay of Campeche from 20N94W to
24N92W. Scatterometer data and surface observations depict a
gentle to moderate SE flow prevailing across the basin. Expect
for the stationary front to prevail across the NW Gulf while
weakening during the next 24 hours. The squall line and
convection across the NE Gulf will continue moving E reaching
the northern portion of the Florida peninsula and W Atlantic.


The surface ridge that dominates the central and E Atlantic
extends S-SW across the northern Caribbean, thus generating a
tight pressure gradient that support fresh to near gale force
winds S of 16N between 70W and 78W, including the Gulf of
Venezuela. To the S, The proximity of the EPAC Monsoon Trough is
supporting scattered moderate convection S of 10N between 80W
and 84W. Moderate trades prevail across the reminder of the
basin as noted in scatterometer data. A similar weather pattern
will prevail during the next 24 hours.


Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. Afternoon
showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop due to low-level
moisture being carried by the trades coupled with daytime
heating. This pattern will prevail during the next 24 hours.


A weak shortwave moving across the W Atlantic is supporting
cloudiness and isolated moderate convection mainly W of 70W. To
the E...a cold front extends from 28N73W to 32N64W. Isolated
moderate convection is observed along the front. A broad area of
high pressure dominates the remainder of the basin centered by a
1029 mb high near 31N37W. A surface trough extends across
northern Guyana and into the Atlantic from 07N58W to 13N52W.
Isolated moderate convection prevails in the vicinity of the
trough between 54W and 61W. Expect during the next 24 hours for
the cold front to continue moving E with convection. Surface
ridging will continue across the central and E Atlantic.

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