443
AXNT20 KNHC 262303
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Jun 27 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Rainfall in Central America/Western Caribbean:
The interaction between a couple of tropical waves that are
described below, and abundant tropical moisture over the same area
will continue to enhance the chances for significant showers and
thunderstorms over the western Caribbean and across portions of
Central America through at least tomorrow. This will increase the
potential for flash flooding and mudslides, especially in hilly
terrain. According to the latest model guidance, the heaviest
rainfall is expected to be near the northeast coast of Nicaragua
and in northern Honduras. Please refer to the local Weather
Services in the region for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 31W from 04N
to 15N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is
presently occurring with this wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis extending from
18N48W to 03N46W. It is moving westward at 15-20 kt. Satellite
imagery reveals scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from
10N-13N between 45W-51W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 81W south of
17N. It is moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 11N-20N between 82W-85W.

A far western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 88W and
south of 20N. It is moving westward around 5-10 kt. While there is
no deep convection over water associated with this wave numerous
moderate and scattered strong convection is noted over much of the
Yucatan of Mexico, Guatemala, and Honduras. This wave is forecast
to merge into a broad cyclonic circulation that is over the
eastern Pacific Ocean associated with Invest-EP95.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis passes through the coast of Senegal near
14N17W and continues southwestward to 09N31W, where it
transitions to the ITCZ to 09N46W. It resumes west of a tropical
wave near 09N48W and continues to 08N56W. Aside from convection
related to the wave that is along 18N48W to 03N46W, scattered
moderate convection is north of 04N east of 22W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak high pressure ridge extends from the Atlantic to over the
SE United States. This is promoting only gentle winds across the
Gulf this afternoon. Seas are 1-3 ft. Scattered moderate
convection is noted south of 22N west of 95W and north of 29N east
of 86W.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters
through early next week. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds
will pulse each evening and night north of the Yucatan Peninsula
and in the eastern Bay of Campeche due to a locally tighter
pressure gradient induced by a thermal trough. Gentle to moderate
E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere
through early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Special Features section regarding the potential
for heavy rainfall over portions of the western Caribbean and
Central America.

A moderate pressure gradient exists between the Bermuda High
north of the Caribbean along with a 1010 mb Colombian Low along
the Pacific monsoon trough. This is promoting fresh to strong
trades over the central Caribbean along with seas 7-10 ft.
Elsewhere, the trades are moderate with seas 4-6 ft. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 11N-20N between 82W-85W.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High
and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean associated with the E
Pacific monsoon trough will support fresh to strong trades across
most of the central and SW Caribbean. Winds will pulse to near-
gale force off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, with
moderate to rough seas. Fresh to strong winds over the Gulf of
Honduras will continue through the weekend. Elsewhere, moderate to
fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure of 1021 mb is analyzed at 27N64W, while a 1026 mb
high is analyzed north of the area at 34N30W. South of these
highs, trades are gentle to moderate, except fresh to strong just
north of Hispaniola, through the Canary Islands, and nearshore to
Western Sahara and Mauritania. Seas are 3-7 ft. Scattered moderate
convection is noted over the Bahamas from 23N-29N between 73W-80W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High and associated
ridge will prevail across the region through early next week.
Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas will prevail S
of 25N. Fresh to strong E winds will pulse late in the afternoon
and at night N of Hispaniola through early next week. Gentle to
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere.

$$
Landsea/Levine