000
AXNT20 KNHC 070606
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI MAR 07 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A GALE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LATE FRI NIGHT OVER THE SW N
ATLANTIC N OF 27N WITHIN 150 NM SE OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
EXTEND FROM 31N68W TO 21N78W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT01 KNHC OR THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 9N13W AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N18W TO 2N27W. THE ITCZ BEGINS
NEAR 1N28W AND CONTINUES TO 0N35W TO COASTAL BRAZIL NEAR 2S40W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR
TO 5N BETWEEN 17W-31W AND FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 11W-14W. A CLUSTER
OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 1N BETWEEN 1W-7W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF WHICH IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 28N82W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE LOW ALONG 25N83W TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N84W
THEN INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS W-NW FROM
THE LOW ALONG 28N86W TO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI NEAR 30N88W. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE NE GULF IS ENHANCING SHOWERS N OF 29N
BETWEEN 84W-86W WHILE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORTS ISOLATED
SHOWERS E OF THE COLD FRONT TO INCLUDE THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A
SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN GULF ANCHORED
BY A 1019 MB HIGH ON THE BORDER OF ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA. THIS
RIDGE IS PROVIDING NORTHERLY FLOW OF 15-20 KT W OF 90W WHILE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF THE SAME MAGNITUDE DOMINATES E OF THAT
LONGITUDE. OTHERWISE...THE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
THIS MORNING WHILE THE COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE GULF WATERS
AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH SAT. A NEW COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE W GULF SUN MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH WITH A BASE OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS SUPPORT
A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN BY WESTERN CUBA NEAR
21N84W AND THEN EXTENDS ALONG 19N86W TO BELIZE AND THEN INTO
GUATEMALA. THE TROUGHING ALOFT ALSO SUPPORTS A PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 24N79W TO 22N81W TO 20N83W. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
SUPPORTS SHOWERS WITHIN 160 NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT BOUNDARY N
OF 20N AND WITHIN 80 NM S OF THAT LATITUDE. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN WITH WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN BASIN. HOWEVER...SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW PATCHES OF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND ENTERING THE EASTERN
BASIN WHICH MAY ENHANCE PASSING SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...TRADES OF 15-20 KT DOMINATE THE BASIN E OF 77W. THE
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE OVER CUBA AND THE NW BASIN
AND WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE EARLY SAT.

HISPANIOLA...
DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT CONTINUES TO HINDER DEEP
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE ISLAND. HOWEVER...A PATCH OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CUBA INTO THE ISLAND MAY
GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER HAITI...WINDWARD PASSAGE AND
ADJACENT WATERS. LOOKING AHEAD...THE PROXIMITY OF A DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE MAY INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY
IN THE AREA ON SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE SW N ATLC ASSOCIATED WITH A
1005 MB LOW NEAR 31N78W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW SW
TO THE COAST OF EASTERN FLORIDA NEAR 28N80W. A WARM FRONT
EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM THE LOW ALONG 31N76W TO 30N72W TO 29N69W
TO 30N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM ARE N OF 23N W OF 73W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES
AND A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 27N45W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR