000
AXNT20 KNHC 262328
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WELL W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM
18N30W TO 10N35W MOVING W AT 20 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA. A VERY DRY AFRICAN DUST AREA
IS N OF 15N. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS PRESENTLY NOTED ALONG
THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 17N63W TO 10N65W
MOVING W AT 20 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A
MOIST AREA. A VERY DRY AFRICAN DUST AREA IS N OF 17N. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-14N BETWEEN 62W-
66W...AND INLAND OVER VENEZUELA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 61W-70W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 22N82W TO 10N73W
MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. THE WAVE INCLUDES REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB TROUGH.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA AT 12N16W
TO 9N30W TO 9N40W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 9N40W TO 10N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 14W-16W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 25W-29W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 40W-58W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N89W. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS
ARE OVER THE GULF. AIR MASS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED OVER FLORIDA...THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...AND THE NORTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE GULF. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SE GULF
NEAR 25N85W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING
THE CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
THE SURFACE HIGH TO REMAIN STATIONARY WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
AND LIGHT WINDS TO PREVAIL OVER THE GULF. ALSO EXPECT THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO DRIFT TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH CONTINUED
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN... AND ANOTHER IS
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. AIR MASS WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER E CUBA...JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...AND ALL OF CENTRAL AMERICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A
LOW IS CENTERED S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 15N75W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS CENTERED E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 13N54W. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W WITH
CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
ESPECIALLY S OF 18N.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. AIR MASS
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF
FLORIDA N OF FORT PIERCE AND W OF 80W. A 1023 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N55W. A STATIONARY
FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N30W TO 23N43W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. ANOTHER 1020 MB
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 27N26W. OF NOTE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 26N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN
61W-64W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO DIP
DOWN TO 30N OVER THE W ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA