Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 161037
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 16/0900 UTC, the center of Hurricane Jose was located about
480 nm SSE of Cape Hatteras NC near 27.9N 71.8W, moving NW at 8
kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Numerous strong
convection is within 75 nm of the center. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is elsewhere from 25N-31N between 68W-72W.
Little change in intensity is expected during the next 24-48
hours. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

At 16/0900 UTC, the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen was
located about 510 nm WSW of the Cape Verde Islands near 12.6N
32.1W, moving W at 6 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure
is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40
kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 08N-13N
between 30W-35W. The depression is forecast to become a tropical
storm within the next 24 to 36 hours. Please see the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
for more details.

A vigorous tropical wave in the central Atlc extends from 16N46W
to 06N48W, with a 1011 mb surface low analyzed along the wave
near 12N 47.5W, is moving W at 20 kt. The wave is in a region of
deep moisture noted by SSMI TPW imagery. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is from 10N-15N between 47W-52W. Environmental
conditions are conducive for development of this system, and a
tropical depression is expected to form this weekend. There is a
high probability for this system to become a tropical cyclone
within 24 to 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave in the E Caribbean has an axis extending from
23N62W to 12N63W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is in a region of
deep moisture noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A sharp 700 mb trough
is also seen. Minimal convection is associated with the wave.

A tropical wave in the central Caribbean with an axis extending
from 21N79W to 10N80W is moving W at 15 to 20 kt. The wave is in
a region of deep moisture noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A surface
trough and 700 mb trough are both evident. Scattered moderate
convection is E of the wave from 14N-18N between 77W-79W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 10N15W to
13N26W. Aside from the convection related to T.D. Fourteen and
the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is south of the
monsoon trough from 03N-06N between 10W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is over the central Gulf of Mexico from 29N91W
to 22N92W, and a weaker trough extends from 30N84W to 27N85W. In
the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the N Gulf with
axis along 92W. Upper level diffluence E of the trough axis is
supporting scattered moderate to isolated strong convection over
the south-central Gulf within 120 nm of 23N90W. Expect the upper
level trough to move E to Florida over the next 24 hours, with
weaker convection over the E Gulf during the next 48 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean waters,
and another wave is passing the Lesser Antilles, as noted above.
The eastern extension of the E Pacific monsoon trough reaches
the NW coast of Colombia and is producing scattered moderate
convection over the SW Caribbean S of 11N. Winds across much of
the Caribbean remain gentle to moderate due to a weak surface
pressure gradient.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers enhanced by inflow into Hurricane Jose are
north of the area. Expect diurnal convection to continue over
the island for the next few days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see Special Features section above for more information
on Hurricane Jose, T.D. Fourteen, and the tropical wave over the
west-central Atlantic with high potential to become a tropical
cyclone this weekend. Otherwise, a trough extending south of a
stationary front from 31N36W to 27N38W is expected to dissipate
today. The remainder of the basin remains under the influence of
a surface ridge.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell



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