Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
AXNT20 KNHC 272357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
16N25W TO 6N27W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THE GOES-R AIRMASS PRODUCT
SHOWS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR N OF THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT
DEVOID OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-
15N BETWEEN 25W-28W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE S BAHAMAS AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N72W TO 12N72W...MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE IS BENEATH A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH AND AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 68W-73W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...SOUTHERN MEXICO
...AND E PAC WATERS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 25N93W TO
14N94W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND S MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
120 NM IF THE REMAINDER OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 8N13W TO
7N25W TO 5N30W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 5N30W TO 8N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 8N-
12N BETWEEN 13W-17W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N
BETWEEN 34W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SEE ABOVE. A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA AT 29N81W TO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 28N90W TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AT
26N97W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM
24N-31N BETWEEN 81W-89W...AND FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 91W-98W.
ELSEWHERE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS NEAR 30N100W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE N GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO DRIFT N WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION.
ALSO EXPECT A SURFACE LOW TO FOR OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE.
ELSEWHERE 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER
MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO S MEXICO. ELSEWHERE
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF
15N E OF 67W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N71W ENHANCING CONVECTION.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE E...
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY.

...HISPANIOLA...

A TROPICAL WAVE AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ARE OVER HISPANIOLA.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE
ISLAND FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 68W-73W. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING AND POSSIBLE
MUDSLIDES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1016 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA NEAR 31N78W.
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW TO N FLORIDA NEAR 29N81W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A WEAK 1014 MB
LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N47W. ANOTHER
1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N51W. A THIRD 1012 MB LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 14N43W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER. OF NOTE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 36N63W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SE OF THE CENTER PRODUCING ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 30N-35N BETWEEN 50W-65W. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N40W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS E
OF THE CENTER PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 27N-
33N BETWEEN 33W-38W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



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