Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 191750
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE GONZALO IS CENTERED NEAR 49.0N 47.3W AT 19/1500 UTC OR
ABOUT 230 NM ENE OF ST. JOHNS NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING NE AT 45 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 969 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH GUST TO 90 KT. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 49N-54N BETWEEN 43W-47W. PLEASE SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC
AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 16N39W
TO 4N43W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD
AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE FROM 5N-16N BETWEEN 36W-46W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE E TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES TO 5N25W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 5N25W
TO 6N40W. THE ITCZ RESUMES W OF A TROPICA WAVE AT 6N45W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3N51W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION
MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION... WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 10W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 1500 UTC...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM COCOA
BEACH FLORIDA AT 28N81W TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 27N90W
TO CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AT 28N97W. 15 KT NE WINDS ARE N OF THE
FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 22N98W
TO 18N94W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-25N
BETWEEN 92W-98W. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 84W-86W. FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS
ALONG 93W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO PERSIST AND SPREAD
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND SE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 5-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. THE MONSOON
TROUGH IS PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 71W-84W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO EL
SALVADOR. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF CUBA FROM 19N-
22N BETWEEN 78W-84W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE ALONGTHE COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 61W-71W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W
OF 80W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO
NEAR 20N65W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT
OVER CUBA. EXPECT THE MONSOON TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY VERY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AGAIN TO BE OVER THE ISLAND MON
WITH CONVECTION N OF THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N75W TO COCOA BEACH
FLORIDA AT 28N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT. A 1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 23N56W
MOVING N AT 10 KT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N54W TO THE
LOW CENTER TO 19N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-
29N BETWEEN 51W-58W. A 1003 MB LOW IS N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS
NEAR 33N19W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE
CANARY ISLANDS AT 28N16W TO 21N26W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
THE CANARY ISLANDS. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N52W ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE E
WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW AND
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



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