Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 231759

205 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

Tropical wave extends from 04N19W to 09N23W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave coincides with a stretched 700 mb trough with weak
relative vorticity from the Equator near 15W to a maximum near
09N26W. No significant deep convection occurring with the wave.

Tropical wave extends from 04N45W to 09N41W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave coincides with a subtle mid-level 700 mb trough and
associated relative vorticity aloft in the vicinity of the wave
axis near 07N. Isolated moderate convection is from 05N to 08N
between 41W and 46W.

Tropical wave extends from 04N66W to 12N65W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave is located within the southwestern periphery ofamid-
level ridge anchored over the Leeward Islands near 18N61W.
Isolated moderate convection is from 06N to 09N between 65W and

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to
06N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
05N22W to 03N37W to 05N44W to 04N52W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is from 02N to 06N between 22W and 34W.


A broad middle to upper level low is noted on water vapor
imagery over the Mid-Atlc coast and Carolinas that supports a
weak coldfront analyzed across the southern Florida peninsula
from Lake Okeechobee to Fort Myers then to 26N85W where it
becomes stationary to 27N92W. Isolated showers and tstms are
occurring primarily south of the front across the SE Gulf waters
E of 88W...including the Florida Straits. The remainder of the
Gulf is under the influence of NW flow aloft and gentle to
moderateE-SE flow on the southwestern periphery of a ridge
anchorebya1017mb high centered across the SE CONUS. While the
weak frontal boundary dissipates across the Gulf through
tonight...the E-SE flow will persist the next couple of
dayswithwinds increasing slightly across the western
GulfWednesday through Friday as the pressure gradient
strengthens due to a developing area of low pressure across the
central plains.

The surface pressure gradient across the Caribbean Sea remains
relatively strong due to a ridge anchored across the central
Atlc and lower pressure noted across northern South America. The
gradient is resulting in mostly fresh to strong trades across
the basin with the strongest winds occurring across the south-
central and SE portion of the basin. As the ridge remains
nearlystationary and strengthens slightly...the resulting
gradient is expected to maintain the area of fresh to strong
trades across the eastern and central Caribbean primarily E of
76W through late Tuesday. Otherwise...fairly tranquil conditions
prevail across the remainder of the Caribbean with only a few
isolated showers and tstms occurring S of 11N across the
adjacent coastal waters of Costa Rica...Panama...and Colombia.

Conditions remain fairly tranquil across the island with mostly
clear skies noted on satellite imagery this afternoon. Dry west-
southwesterly flow aloft is further supporting a dry and
subsident environment.

A middle to upper level low is centered over the Mid-Atlc
andCarolinas with troughing dipping southward over much of the
SW North Atlc region this afternoon. The trough supports a 1005
mb low centered off the Delmarva near 37N72W with the associated
cold front extending S-SW to 32N72W to the Florida peninsula
near 27N80W. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are
occurringwithin 300 nm E-SE of the front with an area of
scattered showers and tstms farther east from 25N to 29N
between63W and69W within an area of maximum middle to upper
level diffluence. Farther east...a surface ridge influences
muchof the central and eastern Atlc anchored by a weakening
1027mb high centered near 27N40W. Just north of this high
center...a cold front enters the discussion area near
32N24Wandextends SW to 28N37W then becomes stationary to
30N51W.Possible isolated showers are within 90 nm either
sideofthe front. To the north of the front...a 1030 mb high
iscentered near 35N44W that will eventually become the
dominantfeature across the central Atlc as the front
dissipatesovernight into early Tuesday.

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