Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 181102
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1100 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N11W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 05N13W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS AT 05N13W AND CONTINUES TO 06N22W TO 04N31W TO 06N41W TO
THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 02N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 19W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE BASIN. IT STARTS AS A WARM FRONT
FROM A 1016 MB LOW CENTERED OVER S TEXAS TO 29N95W TO 25N90W. A
STATIONARY FRONT IS FROM 25N90W TO 26N86W. THEN A COLD FRONT
STARTS FROM 26N86W TO 26N82W THEN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
INTO THE ATLANTIC. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND
BEHIND THE STATIONARY FRONT AFFECTING THE N GULF WATERS N OF 27N
BETWEEN 83W-92W. 05-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE
BASIN EXCEPT BEHIND THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NW GULF WHERE 15-
20 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
PREVAILS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 94W. UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE
IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE S
GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO WEAKEN WHILE
BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS THE NE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT
16N62W TO 15N77W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS PRESENT ALONG THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ANOTHER SECTION OF ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF JAMAICA FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 75W-79W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 13N AND W OF 80W. AT UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO WEAKEN EVEN MORE WHILE BECOMING STATIONARY.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND. EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 60W IS SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE E GULF ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
INTO THE W ATLANTIC 26N80W TO 30N67W TO 43N61W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. TO THE
E...A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 30N53W. A 1014 MB
SURFACE LOW IS NOTED NEAR 25N47W. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
WITH AXIS ALONG 48W SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. IT STARTS AS A COLD FRONT FROM 16N61W TO
24N45W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 24N45W TO 40N35W. THEN A
COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT INTO THE N ATLANTIC.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM OF THESE
BOUNDARIES N OF 20N BETWEEN 37W-47W. A LARGE 1033 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED E OF THE AZORES NEAR 38N20W. EXPECT THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WHILE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY WITH
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA


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