Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 251157
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL IS NEAR 24.7N 72.8W...OR
ABOUT 100 NM TO THE E-NE OF SAN SALVADOR OR ABOUT 620 NM SW OF
BERMUDA MOVING N AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NEAR
994 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 50 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
60 KNOTS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL ARE ISSUED
UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W
COVERING PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 24N TO 30N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
AND REMNANT DEBRIS CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLY WEAKENING SHOWERS IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA/THE WINDWARD PASSAGE FROM 17N ALONG THE EASTERN COAST
OF JAMAICA TO 20N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W...AND FROM 15N TO 18N AT THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN 71W AND 73W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE WIND AND SEAS THAT ARE RELATED TO TROPICAL STORM
CRISTOBAL.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD. THE
WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 13N TO
15N BETWEEN 23W AND 26W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THIS
PRECIPITATION MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IS AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WAVE NEAR 12N36W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 50 NM OF A LINE FROM 11N42W
TO 13N37W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W FROM 17N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
THAT ARE FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 47W AND 51W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 15N17W...TO 13N25W 12N36W AND 9N42W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
9N42W TO 8N46W AND 7N54W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED STRONG
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 39W AND 43W. OTHER CONVECTION IS
RELATED TO TROPICAL WAVES DISCUSSED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 13N55W 11N58W 8N59W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN
57W AND 61W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER/EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG IN THE GULF
MAINLY FROM 28N NORTHWARD FROM 91W.

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 30N76W... ACROSS
FLORIDA NEAR 29N81W...SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND NEAR THE
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE TO THE
NORTH OF 28N85W 28N88W 28N90W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST/OFF
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF LOUISIANA. THE AXIS OF THE HIGH EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KDLP...AT
400 FEET...AND AT KGHB AT 2500 FEET.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

NO LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THIS TIME.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE AREA. THIS WIND REGIME IS MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL.

BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE AREA THAT IS AROUND
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL...THROUGH THE AREA OF THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE AND JAMAICA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES
FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 25/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN
AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...WAS 1.10 IN CURACAO...1.00 BERMUDA...0.24 IN HAVANA CUBA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG...10N80W NORTH OF THE COAST OF PANAMA IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...ACROSS COSTA RICA...AND BEYOND
NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 73W AND 100NM
WEST OF THE WESTERN COAST OF COLOMBIA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM S OF 15N BETWEEN 68W AND 72W.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEATHER BUREAU CONTINUES ITS WARNING FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES...IN LOW-LYING AREAS NEAR
RIVERS AND CREEKS. PLEASE REFER TO THE WEBSITE WWW.ONAMET.GOV.DO
FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.

BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE AREA THAT IS AROUND
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL...THROUGH THE AREA OF THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE AND JAMAICA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION AROUND TROPICAL STORM
CRISTOBAL... SCATTERED STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA/THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE FROM 18N ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF JAMAICA TO 20N
BETWEEN 73W AND 76W...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 15N TO 18N AT THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN 71W AND 73W. HEAVY
RAIN IS OCCURRING IN SANTO DOMINGO THIS MORNING.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...

HEAVY RAIN WAS BEING REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN OTHER COASTAL AREAS.

XTHE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR MUCH
OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS FORECAST FOR
500 MB SHOWS THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA FOR
MUCH OF THE TIME...FOLLOWED BY AN INVERTED TROUGH AT THE END OF THE
48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH A TROUGH TO THE
WEST OF HISPANIOLA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THAT IS
AROUND TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
31N69W...JUST WEST OF BERMUDA...TO 29N75W...TO THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST NEAR 29N81W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 33N32W...TO 32N40W 28N51W TO 26N64W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 8 FEET FROM 31N74W TO 28N81W.  BETWEEN A SECOND AREA CONSISTS OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 36W/37W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD. EXPECT WINDS
20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 38W
AND 44W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT/ASL/PW


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