Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 200538

205 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological


The monsoon trough extends over western Africa and into the east
Tropical Atlantic near 10N14W to 07N20W where the ITCZ begins
and then extends to 05N30W to the coast of South America near
06N57W. Isolated moderate convection is from 04N-06N between 26w-
33w. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-10N between 44W-



A stationary front extends across southern Alabama, Mississippi
and SW Louisiana, then along Texas coastal waters from 29N92W to
26N97W.  A squall line is over the western Gulf of Mexico from
SE Louisiana at 29N90W to 26N95W.  Numerous strong convection is
associated with the squall line.  Elsewhere scattered showers
with isolated thunderstorms are over central Florida and western
Cuba.  The remainder of the Gulf has 10 kt SE surface flow with
mostly fair weather.  In the upper levels...the base of an upper
level trough is over Texas.  Upper level diffluence is east of
the trough over the western Gulf greatly enhancing convection.
Expect over the next 48 hours for a front to be over the
southern portions of the northern Gulf States with convection.
Also expect over the next 24 hours for the upper level trough
over Texas to move east to the western Atlantic.


High pressure over the Atlantic continues to extend S-SW across
the northern Caribbean, thus generating a tight pressure gradient
that support fresh to near gale force winds S of 16N between 70W
and 78W, including the Gulf of Venezuela. The EPAC monsoon
trough is supporting scattered showers within 60 NM of the
southern Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama coasts. Fresh to
strong trades are in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate trades
prevail across the reminder of the basin. No major changes to
occur the next two days.


Isolated showers are across Haiti while fair weather is across
the remainder island. During the next two days, afternoon
showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop across the
island due to moisture being carried by the trades coupled with
daytime heating.


A diffluent environment aloft along with moisture inflow from
the tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean continue to support
scattered moderate convection over the western Atlantic N of 26N
W of 71W. Further east, a surface trough extends from 31N66W to
28N71W.  Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough.  A
1030 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 32N40W.
Expect over the next 24 hours for a cold front to dip into the
central Atlantic from the north and reach 31N61W with

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