Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 152344
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
644 PM EST Wed Feb 15 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A cold front extends from the Florida panhandle southwest to the
Bay of Campeche. Near gale to gale force northwest winds are
expected across the SW Gulf of Mexico waters this afternoon and
evening mainly south of 21N W of 95W. As the pressure gradient
relaxes, gale force winds are forecast to diminish by 16/0000 UTC.
In addition, the same frontal system is approaching the west
Atlantic waters generating near gale to gale-force southwest
winds east of the boundary north of 29N and west of 76W. These
conditions will continue through Thursday afternoon. See the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 06N10W to
01N21W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 01N21W to
00N36W to 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection prevails within
200 nm on either side of the ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The Special Features cold front extends from the Florida panhandle
to the Bay of Campeche. A pre-frontal surface trough was analyzed
from 23N88W to 19N92W. The remainder of the basin west of the
front is under the influence of surface ridging building in from
northern Mexico and Texas, anchored by a 1025 mb high centered
near 23N99W. The front will progress E of the basin by Thursday
morning as gentle to moderate northerly winds prevail through
Thursday. By Thursday night...the ridge is expected to shift E
with southerly return flow re- establishing itself by Thursday
night late into Friday morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A dry and stable south-southwesterly flow aloft prevails over the
basin providing for mainly tranquil conditions at the surface.
Skies remain mostly clear with only a few isolated showers
possible over the Windward Passage and in the proximity of
Jamaica. Gentle to moderate trades prevail across the basin and
are expected to persist through Friday. The tail end of a cold
front is expected to provide minimal impact to the northwest
Caribbean on Thursday and into Friday as it continues to weaken
across Cuba and remain north of the region by Friday night.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers are possible across the island this evening due
to low-level moisture convergence across the region. Upper-level
dry air and stable conditions aloft prevail and will provide an
overall tranquil weather pattern across the island through the
next few days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A mid to upper-level trough is noted on water vapor imagery
approaching from the west currently over the southeast CONUS. The
troughing supports a cold front analyzed from the Florida
panhandle to the southwest Gulf of Mexico waters and will move
into the west Atlantic waters by Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. Strong to gale force winds are already occurring east of
the front affecting the waters north of 29N and west of 76W.
Please refer to the section above for details. To the east,
another frontal system was analyzed as a cold front from 31N92W
to 26N53W, as a stationary front from that point to 25N62W then as
a warm front from 25N62W to 27N67W. A surface trough extends south
of the fronts from 27N45W to 20N54W. Isolated showers are possible
along the fronts. High pressure prevails across the remainder of
the basin with fair weather. Expect for the cold front to enter
the west Atlantic with convection. The frontal system across the
central Atlantic will continue weakening.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA




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