Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 121738 CCA

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2018

Corrected Atlantic Ocean Section

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.


Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
between the strong surface ridge over the north Atlantic Ocean
and lower pressure over northwestern South America will continue
to support gale-force winds off the coast of Colombia. These
conditions are expected continue through late this week. Please
read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

Overnight scatterometer data showed near to gale-force northerly
winds over adjacent waters of Tampico, Mexico following a cold
front that extends from southern Alabama to Tampico. These winds
and associated building seas to 10 ft will start to decrease late
this morning. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.


The Monsoon Trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Liberia, Africa near 05N09W continuing to 01N18W. The ITCZ begins
near 01N18W and extends along 01S27W to the coast of Brazil near
05S36W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within
90 nm S of the axis between 11W-14W, and within 60 nm S of the
axis between 15W-18W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120
nm S of the axis between 20W-25W.



As of 09Z, a cold front extends from Pensacola Florida to 27N91W
to 24N94.5w to inland Mexico near Papantla. Strong high pressure
building in behind the front is funneling fresh to near gale-
force northerly winds over the western gulf waters, except for
gale- force winds near Tampico, Mexico as was indicated by
overnight scatterometer data. Moist southerly winds advecting
northward over the gulf from the Caribbean in combination with
a diffluent environment aloft continues to support scattered
moderate isolated strong convection over the northern gulf waters
N of 28N E of the front. This activity may be attended by strong
gusty winds as quickly shifts eastward. Elsewhere, scattered to
isolated showers are within 120 nm ahead of the front. Strong high
pressure over the north Atlc continue to extends SW across the
eastern half of the Gulf, thus providing with light to moderate E
to SE winds ahead of the front. Fresh easterly winds are over
the Straits of Florida. The cold front is forecast to reach from
near the Florida Big Bend area to the western Bay of Campeche this
evening where it will stall and weaken until dissipating
Wednesday evening. Gale force winds are forecast to diminish late
this afternoon or early evening, however fresh to strong northerly
winds and building seas to 10 ft will continue to follow the
front through tonight and into early on Tue. Winds and seas will
diminish Tue afternoon as a ridge develops over the southeastern
United States. This pattern will support fresh east winds by mid


Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details
about the gale-force winds expected near the coast of Colombia.

The GOES-16 low to mid-level water vapor imagery reveals generally
dry and stable conditions continue across the basin.  However,
patches of shallow moisture continue to move across western
Hispaniola, thus supporting cloudiness and possible passing
showers. A strong ridge N of the area anchored by a pair of highs
extends southward across the northern half of the Caribbean, with
the associated pressure gradient supporting the continuation of
fresh to strong trade winds across the eastern and central basin
as indicated by latest scatterometer data. Seas are in the range
of 12 to 18 ft near the Colombia coast and 8 to 12 ft elsewhere.
Fresh to near gale-force are also occurring through the Atlc
passages and will continue through mid week. Otherwise, little
change is expected through mid-week.


Broad surface high pressure over the area is associated with a
pair of strong high pressure centers anchored N of the
discussion, one of 1038 mb at 35N48W, and the other of 1036 mb
at 39W29W. The ridge is supporting fresh to strong E-NE winds
over most of the basin, except over NW forecast waters N of 24N
where E-SE winds are mainly moderate. A cold front is forecast
to move off the northeast Florida coast by Tue morning with
scattered to isolated showers. The front then will stall before
dissipating Thu morning. The next cold front is forecast to
enter the NW forecast waters by early Saturday morning.

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