Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 162349
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO AT 17/0000 UTC IS NEAR 27.4N
67.8W. THE CENTER OF GONZALO IS ABOUT 335 NM TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 943 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 125
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 150 KNOTS. A CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE EYE OF GONZALO WILL BE
NEAR BERMUDA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. GONZALO IS A
CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND
SCALE.  FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR
HURRICANES...AND ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH GONZALO THROUGH
TONIGHT. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY...BUT GONZALO IS
EXPECTED TO BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE WHEN IT MOVES NEAR BERMUDA.
STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN BY LATE FRIDAY. PUBLIC ADVISORIES
FOR HURRICANE GONZALO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3. FORECAST/ADVISORIES FOR
HURRICANE GONZALO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
24N-27N BETWEEN 67W-70W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS  ELSEWHERE FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 65W-71W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N30W TO A 1012 MB
LOW AT 8N30W MOVING WEST AT 10 KNOTS. SSMI TPW SHOWS HIGH
MOISTURE MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 24W-33W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 9N13W AND EXTENDS TO
9N20W TO A 1012 MB LOW AT 7N30W TO 6N36W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
6N36W TO 6N42W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N51W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-14N BETWEEN 16W-23W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W TIP OF CUBA NEAR 22N84W TO JUST
NORTH OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THEN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT
22N90W TO 21N92W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 21N92W
ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 19N95W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG AND
WITHIN 75 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
AND S GULF OF MEXICO. SSMI TPW INDICATES A VERY DRY AIR MASS
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. NORTH
OF THE FRONTS...A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 27N93W
WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW RANGING FROM 5 TO 15 KT AND FAIR WEATHER.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO SHIFT SOUTH OF
THE SE GULF. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY DRY WEATHER.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE S GULF INTO CUBA IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE NE CARIBBEAN
FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 80W AND 87W. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 16N74W IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL BASIN THIS AFTERNOON
FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 71W AND 78W...INCLUDING JAMAICA...E
CUBA...AND HISPANIOLA. TRADE WINDS OF MAINLY 5 TO 10 KT COVER
THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY SE WITH ONGOING CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
AS THE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA PRESENTLY NEAR
16N74W. THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING OVER THE ISLAND AND
THE NEARBY UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND
REDEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS NEAR THE
ISLAND.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N73W TO THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA AT 23N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM EAST OF THE FRONT.
HURRICANE GONZALO IS ABOUT 500 NM E OF GREAT ABACO IN THE N
BAHAMAS. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. A 1012 MB LOW
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 24N49W. A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 26N30W TO THE LOW CENTER TO 21N56W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 42W AND 47W.
ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 160 NM OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW.
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW IS NEAR 18N46W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO 12N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 14N TO 22N BETWEEN 43W AND
46W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 17N
BETWEEN 46W AND 55W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N20W TO 26N30W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1018 MB HIGH
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 22N30W

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



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