000
AXNT20 KNHC 040525
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED DEC 04 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
11N15W TO 8N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM 8N19W TO 7N33W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA
FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 10W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 24W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W
PRODUCING 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE GULF IS VOID OF PRECIPITATION.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS PRODUCING NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 23N.
A BAND OF SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE S GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO BE CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
ALSO EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED SURFACE
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WITH INCREASED LOW CLOUDS AND MOISTURE
OVER THE E GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA PRODUCING 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N
COLOMBIA AT 8N73W TO BEYOND W COSTA RICA AT 9N85W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. DIFFLUENT
WESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN ENHANCING THE
SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. EXPECT THE SURFACE SHOWERS TO MOVE
W TO 78W IN 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HAITI WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER HISPANIOLA FROM
THE E.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W. A
COLD FRONT IS FURTHER E OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N59W TO THE S
BAHAMAS NEAR 22N74W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE
FRONT N OF 22N BETWEEN 50W-60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1001 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 34N27W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SE FROM THE LOW
TO THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 29N13W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOSTLY N
OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATALNTIC SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONT.
LIKEWISE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
33N29W SUPPORTING THE E ATLANTIC LOW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA