Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 231021

805 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.


Tropical wave extends from 10N19W to 00N20W moving west at 10
kt. CIRA layer precipitable water imagery indicate the wave is
in a low to moderate moist environment from the surface to 850
mb. This moisture along with diffluent flow aloft support
isolated showers within 180 nm either side of the wave axis.

Tropical wave extends from 09N42W to 00N43W moving west at 10
kt. The wave coincides with the maximum moisture values seen in
a broad surge of moisture on SSMI total precipitable water
imagery. The wave also coincides with a mid-level 700 mb trough
and associated positive relative vorticity maximum.  Scattered
showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis.

Tropical wave extends from 14N63W to 05N64W moving west at 15
kt. This wave coincides with the maximum moisture values seen in
a surge of moisture on SSMI total precipitable water imagery. A
0114 UTC ASCT scatterometer pass also depicted this wave`s wind
shifts over the Windward Islands.  Scattered showers are within
120 nm of the wave axis.


The monsoon trough extends over western Africa to the Tropical
Atlantic near 08N13W to 07N18W.  The ITCZ begins west of a
tropical wave at 05N22W and extends to 04N41W.  The ITCZ resumes
west of another tropical wave at 04N44W and extends to the coast
of South America near 03N51W.  Scattered moderate convection is
from 02N-06N between 20W-35W, and from 05N-08N between 42W-49W.



A cold front extends from South Florida near 26N80W to the
central Gulf near 27N89W.  A stationary front continues to the W
Gulf at 28N96W.  Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the
fronts over the E Gulf east of 88W.  10 kt northerly winds are
north of the front.  Further west, scattered moderate convection
is near Tampico Mexico and the W Gulf from 21N-23N between 96W-
100W. In the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over
North Carolina near 36N78W with axis extending south to the
northern Bahamas. Upper level diffluence southeast of the low is
enhancing convection over the western Atlantic. Expect in 24
hours for the cold front to dip south to the Straits of Florida
while the stationary front over the Gulf dissipates. Also expect
in 24 hours for the upper level low to move to the coast of
Virginia near 38N73W.


The surface pressure gradient over the central and western
Caribbean Sea is relatively tight producing 15-25 kt tradewinds.
Strongest winds are along the coast of N Venezuela.  A 1008 mb
low is centered over N Colombia near 07N74W.  Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is over N Colombia, Panama,
Costa Rica, and the SW Caribbean, from 06N-11N between 75W-84W.
Scattered moderate convection is also inland over southern
Guatemala. Scattered showers remain over the Windward Islands.
In the upper levels zonal flow prevails with strong subsidence
from 12N-20N. Expect over the next 24 hours for an increase of
showers over the central Caribbean.


Presently scattered showers have ended over the island.  Expect
another day of scattered showers for Monday especially during
the afternoon and evening hours due to surface moisture inflow
from the tropical Atlantic.


A cold front is over the western Atlantic from 31N74W to South
Florida at 26N80W.  Clusters of scattered moderate convection
are north of 25N between 65W-78W.  Farther east, a cold front
extends from 31N30W to 29N44W.  A stationary front continues to
beyond 31N52W.  Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the
fronts.  Expect in 24 hours for the western Atlantic cold front
to be extend from 31N69W to the Straits of Florida.  Also expect
the central Atlantic front to dissipate.

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