Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 261037
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
AT ABOUT 80 NM EAST OF FAJARDO...PUERTO RICO. THIS AXIS EXTENDS
FROM 20N64W TO 12N65W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WHICH ALONG AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW EXTENDING SW FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN
SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 59W-
66W AFFECTING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF NE
PUERTO RICO.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 21N88W TO 11N88W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. HIGH DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WHICH ALONG WITH THE
PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
ALOFT SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WATERS W OF 83W...THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...GUATEMALA AND BELIZE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N14W TO
12N22W TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 13N43W TO 11N48W. THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 13N48W TO 15N58W. AREAS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 09N-15N E OF 20W AND FROM
10N-14N BETWEEN 41W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL US EXTENDING S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE IS
ENHANCING SCATTERED CONVECTION W OF 93W GENERATED BY THE TROUGH
INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO. THE TROUGH IS ALSO SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT
CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF FROM 24N89W TO 26N81W. THIS
BOUNDARY CONTINUES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER
THE SE GULF WHICH ALONG ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS INDUCING
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY S OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY S OF 25N E
OF 89W. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT STATIONARY FRONT TO
WEAKEN ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF IMPROVING THE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH
CENTER NEAR 21N85W. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTING A DIFFLUENT FLOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN WHICH COMBINED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND EXTENDING TO
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING CLOUDINESS AND ENHANCING
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY W OF 73W. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF PUERTO RICO. FOR MORE
INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE. OVER THE NEXT 24-
48 HOURS...THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL BE
AFFECTING HISPANIOLA BY SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND A DIFFLUENT FLOW AT UPPER LEVELS SUPPORT
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE ADJACENT WATERS S OF
HAITI. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ON THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL
BE AFFECTING HISPANIOLA SATURDAY TO SUNDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND EXTENDING
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GULF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM
27N80W TO A 1015 MB LOW NEAR 32N79W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION EXTENDS TO 60 NM S OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TO THE
SE...A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 19N65W THAT
SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 59W-
66W AFFECTING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF NE
PUERTO RICO. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DEVELOPING TO
THE NE OF THIS LOW ENHANCING ISOLATED CONVECTION FROM 31N42W TO
23N51W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN...SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS
GENERALLY N OF 28N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


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