Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 241037
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
805 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE NW
COAST OF COLOMBIA UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS ARE
GENERATED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE W ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND
WILL PULSE AGAIN THU EVENING THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON. SEE LATEST
NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 18N40W TO 8N44W
MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE A LARGE
SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 67W/68W S OF 16N
TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA MOVING W 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE
AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 18N85W TO 10N81W
MOVING W-SW AT 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF A BROAD SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT ENCOMPASSES
THE MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 83W-88W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 19N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 11N21W TO 7N28W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N32W 8N40W 5N45W TO SOUTH AMERICA
5N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 41W-45W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA BETWEEN 4N-10N.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
PENSACOLA COVERING THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF IS UNDER A LARGE UPPER LOW THAT IS CENTERED OVER THE N
YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SE GULF
NEAR 24N83W TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA NEAR TAMPA. A SECOND SURFACE
TROUGH IS IN THE SW GULF EXTENDING ALONG 91W/92W S OF 22N TO
INLAND OVER S MEXICO THE UPPER LOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO
FROM VERACRUZ TO JUST S OF THE TEXAS BORDER WITH CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING THE AREA FROM
21N-24N BETWEEN 90W-95W. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NE GULF IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 29N TO INLAND OVER THE SE CONUS E OF SE
LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT
AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE
THAT AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST COVERING THE SW GULF. A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS N FLORIDA COVERING
THE GULF WITH A WEAK 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 28N87W. SURFACE RIDGE
WILL LINGER OVER THE N GULF THROUGH THU NIGHT THEN SHIFT S INTO
THE E/CENTRAL GULF FRI AND THE SE GULF SAT. W ATLC SURFACE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND INTO THE SE
GULF THU BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE FRI IN THE S/CENTRAL GULF. THE
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN WILL CROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TONIGHT THEN MOVE THROUGH THE FAR SW GULF THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
20N89W COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 84W AND EXTENDS N INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA
EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS FROM COLOMBIA N TO OVER CENTRAL CUBA NEAR
SANTA CLARA WHILE AN UPPER LOW CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE YUCATAN
IS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN
THE W CARIBBEAN. LINGERING MOISTURE COUPLED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N TO OVER HISPANIOLA AND
THE MONA PASSAGE BETWEEN 67W-72W. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT
AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AEROSOLS
OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE CARIBBEAN. A PERSISTENT W ATLC
SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TO GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT. THE W CARIBBEAN
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS TODAY. THE
SE CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
TODAY AND THROUGH SW CARIBBEAN TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA BY FRI. A
THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN FRI AND THEN
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES OVER HAITI REMAIN CLEAR THIS MORNING. HOWEVER SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING
OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DUE TO THE LINGERING MOISTURE AND
THE TROPICAL WAVE S OF THE ISLAND. THE UPPER LOW N OF THE ISLAND
WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY THU BEFORE STARTING TO SHIFT
NORTHWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH TODAY WITH CLEARING EXPECTED EARLY
THU. ONLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESUME FRI INTO
SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEAK AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA/NE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS
THE W ATLC W OF 78W WITH A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG 79W FROM 27N-31W. THE UPPER LOW REMAINS N OF
HISPANIOLA NEAR 22N70W COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND
INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N70W
TO THE W WINDWARD PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW COVERING THE
AREA FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 69W-72W. A BROAD E/W SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE ATLC BASIN AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR
28N52W EXTENDING ACROSS N FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE
TROPICS S OF 25N AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE ATLC THROUGH SAT BEFORE SHIFTING SLIGHTLY S ON
SUN. W ATLC SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE W ACROSS THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS TODAY THEN THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



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