Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 241714
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM DANNY WAS DOWNGRADED TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AT 1500 UTC THIS MORNING. AT 1500/24 THE CENTER OF THE
REMNANTS OF DANNY WERE LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 62.0W...MOVING W AT 10
KT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1010 MB. MAXIMUM WINDS WERE
25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
15N TO 19N BETWEEN 59W AND 63W. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE
REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 FOR MORE DETAILS.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED AS A 1007 MB LOW HAS
A CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14N42W...MOVING W AT AROUND 20 KT. THIS
LOW IS AT THE WESTERN END OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF DEEP MOISTURE. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 43W AND 48W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLC TROPICAL WAVE HAS AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM
18N25W TO 11N26W...MOVING W AT AROUND 20 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES
WITH A BROAD LOW LEVEL MONSOON GYRE AND IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH
DEEP MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N TO 17N
BETWEEN 21W AND 31W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 14N17W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 14N22W TO
11N35W TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES LOW NEAR 14N42W. OTHER THAN
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SPECIAL FEATURES LOW AND TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 26W...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 12N
BETWEEN 28W AND 39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY S TO THE
CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N90W. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE MEXICO COAST
NEAR 23N98W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE S OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
AS WELL AS ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW SUPPORTS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N TO 26N BETWEEN 85W AND 98W. A
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF EXTENDS FROM 23N95W TO 19N96W
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 80 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE E CENTRAL GULF WITH
AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM N FL TO 28N83W TO 25N85W. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE NW GULF WITH A 1017 MB
CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28N94W. MAINLY ANTICYCLONIC WINDS UNDER 15
KT ARE OVER THE GULF AROUND THE NW GULF RIDGING...WITH WINDS
BECOMING MORE VARIABLE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGHS.
EXPECT UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW AND
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH TO SUPPORT CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SW GULF TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ASCENT ON THE SE SIDE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION OVER THE SE GULF
THROUGH TUESDAY AS WELL.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF AND A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS N OF 19N
BETWEEN 83W AND 88W. ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN COMBINED WITH THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE
NEARBY E PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH OVER PANAMA SUPPORTS SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 11N BETWEEN 76W AND 83W. THE REMNANTS
OF DANNY ARE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS GENERALLY DRY. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE S
OF 14N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS COVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT FOR HIGHER WINDS NEAR
THE REMNANTS OF DANNY. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DANNY WILL BRING ENHANCED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER THE ISLAND. THE REMNANTS OF DANNY WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE ISLAND ON TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY. THIS ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN OVER THE ISLAND THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 25N TO 29N W OF 78W. AN UPPER TROUGH N OF OUR
AREA OF DISCUSSION SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS OVER
THE W ATLC FROM 31N63W TO 26N71W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 100 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE
REMNANTS OF DANNY ARE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ATLC AND OVER
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. A 1007 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLC. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR
MORE DETAILS. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 30N45W
SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 28N40W TO 26N49W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM OF THE TROUGH
AXIS...AND FROM 26N TO 31N BETWEEN 40W AND 45W. A TROPICAL WAVE
IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 65W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO


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