053
AXNT20 KNHC 270559
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Jun 27 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Rainfall in Central America/Western Caribbean:
The interaction between a couple of tropical waves that are
described below, and abundant tropical moisture over the same area
will continue to enhance the chances for heavy rain and strong
thunderstorms over the western Caribbean and across portions of
Central America through at least Friday. This will increase the
potential for flash flooding and mudslides, especially in hilly
terrain. According to the latest model guidance, the heaviest
rainfall is expected to be near the northeast coast of Nicaragua
and in northern Honduras. Please refer to the local Weather
Services in the region for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 34W from 15N southward,
and moving west around 15 kt. No significant convection is seen
near this wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 50W from 17N southward,
and moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is present from 11N to 13N between 47W and 51W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 82W from 16N southward
across western Panama into the East Pacific. It is moving
west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered heavy showers and isolated
thunderstorms are evident near the coast southeastern Nicaragua
and northeastern Honduras.

Another tropical wave is near 89W from the northern Yucatan
Peninsula southward across Guatemala and El Salvador into the
East Pacific. It is moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered heavy
showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring at the Gulf of
Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters into the Atlantic along the coastal border
of Senegal and Gambia, then curves southwestward to 09N31W. An
ITCZ extends westward from 08N35W to 08N38W, and from 08N51W to
the northern coast of Guyana near Georgetown. Widely scattered
moderate convection is found near and up to 120 nm north of the
first ITCZ segment between 43W and 46W, and the entire second
ITCZ segment.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
isolated thunderstorms in the Caribbean waters near Panama and
northwestern Colombia.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Two surface troughs are generating widely scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms at the northeastern Gulf, and off Tampico,
Mexico. Otherwise, modest ridging is dominating the eastern Gulf
with light to gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas. Gentle to moderate
E to SE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the
Gulf.

For the forecast, showers and thunderstorms related to two
tropical waves over the Yucatan Peninsula and in the far
northwestern Caribbean are forecast to shift west-northwestward
into the Bay of Campeche Sat or Sat night. The northern portion of
the wave could induce a low pressure to form in the Bay of
Campeche. Otherwise, a surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters
through early next week. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds
will pulse each evening and night north of the Yucatan Peninsula
and in the eastern Bay of Campeche due to a locally tighter
pressure gradient induced by a thermal trough.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Special Features section regarding the potential
for heavy rainfall over portions of the western Caribbean and
Central America.

Convergent trade winds are creating widely scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms at the lee of western Cuba and near the
Cayman Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical
Waves sections for additional convection in the Caribbean Sea.
Tight gradient between the Bermuda High near 28N66W and lower
pressure at northern Colombia are sustaining strong to locally
near-gale easterly winds and 9 to 11 ft seas at the south-central
basin. Fresh to strong E to ESE winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are
noted at the north-central basin. Light to gentle winds and 2 to 4
ft seas in moderate NE swell are seen near Costa Rica and Panama.
Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft prevail
elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, the two tropical waves mentioned in the
Tropical Waves sections will sustain scattered deep convection
capable of producing locally heavy rainfall over the far western
basin and adjacent portions of Central America into the weekend.
Also, fresh to strong trades across the central basin will last
into early next week. In particular, winds will pulse to near-gale
force off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, with moderate to
rough seas. Fresh to locally strong winds over the Gulf of
Honduras will continue through the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level low near 27N61W is triggering widely scattered
moderate convection north of 26N between 58W and 65W. Refer to
the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at the
beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. A
subtropical ridge extends southwestward from a 1028 mb Azores High
across 31N40W to a 1022 mb Bermuda High near 28N66W. These
features are supporting light to gentle winds with 3 to 4 ft seas
north of 25N between 35W and the coast of northeastern Florida and
southern Georgia. For the Atlantic waters from 09N to 25N between
35W and the Bahamas/Lesser Antilles, moderate with locally fresh
NE to E winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft dominate. Gentle to moderate
E to SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft in moderate mixed swells
prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned Bermuda High and
associated ridge will prevail across the region into the middle
of next week. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas
will prevail south of 25N. Fresh to strong E winds will pulse
from late afternoons into the overnights north of Hispaniola
through early next week. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to
moderate seas are expected elsewhere.

$$

Chan