Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 241044
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N09W TO
THE EQUATOR NEAR 22W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 03N BETWEEN 01W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MUCH OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING
ONLY A VERY NARROW STREAM OF MOISTURE COINCIDING WITH A WEAK MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER THE SW NORTH
ATLC REGION OFFSHORE OF FLORIDA NEAR 32N72W SW TO 24N84W. THIS
TROUGHING SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA NEAR 27N81W TO 20N96W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA
STRAITS...AND ACROSS THE SW GULF WATERS S OF 21N W OF 93W.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N94W.
THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH S-SW TO THE MEXICO COAST
NEAR 21N97W WITH PRIMARILY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOW-LEVEL STRATUS ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF N OF 26N BETWEEN 86W-93W. THE FRONT WILL
BECOME DIFFUSE WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION SLIDES EASTWARD INTO
THE SW NORTH ATLC BY LATE TUESDAY. GENTLE TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE
ANTICYCLONIC BREEZE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 10N80W IS
INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN DRY AIR
AND OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY
HOWEVER SHOWS A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS OCCURRING IN THE
VICINITY OF JAMAICA...ACROSS EASTERN CUBA...AND ACROSS
HISPANIOLA. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE AS
SURFACING RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO A 1017 MB
HIGH CENTERED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N82W. TRADES ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE GENTLE TO MODERATE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AND
INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORS TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC LATE IN
THE WEEK.

...HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING...
HOWEVER SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS OFFSHORE OF THE SE U.S.
COAST THAT SUPPORTS AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING
FROM A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA W-SW TO THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N81W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
TO 31N70W AND BECOMES STATIONARY TO 27N81W. A PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT FROM 30N68W TO
25N81W. WHILE THE STATIONARY FRONT ITSELF EXHIBITS ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...A
LARGE PORTION OF THE PREVAILING PRECIPITATION IS ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH AND COVERS THE AREA WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH
ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 20N TO A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED IN
THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N82W. FARTHER EAST...THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED WEST OF THE AZORES NEAR 38N33W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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