Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 251013 CCA
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
411 AM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

ONLY SOME SUBTLE CHANGES EXPECTED TODAY VS MONDAY`S WEATHER.
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER COLORADO WITH A LIGHT WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY
AS 700MB TEMPS CLIMB FURTHER TO AROUND +17C AT DENVER. THIS WILL
PUT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

AS FOR MOISTURE...INTEGRATED PW VALUES ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER FROM
24 HOURS AGO AND FROM WATER VAPOR...BRUNT OF MOISTURE COMING IN
FROM ARIZONA WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF CWA. STILL...THERE
WILL BE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER MOUNTAINS
AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF PALMER DIVIDE. COULD SEE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
DRIFT OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS. THE NAM SEEMS
A BIT AMBITIOUS AS IT GENERATES SOME STORMS EAST OF THE URBAN
CORRIDOR THROUGH LINCOLN AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MODELS STILL SHOW A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE TOP OF
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER COLORADO ON WEDNESDAY. THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE
PACKING A FAIR AMOUNT OF MAINLY MID AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE. DO NOT
SEE MUCH MOISTURE AT LOW-LEVELS ESPLY EAST OF THE MTNS. MODELS SHOW
THIS DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER NRN COLORADO/SRN WYOMING LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
IN THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH PRECIP CHANCES IN 40 TO 60 PCT RANGE
THROUGH 06Z/THU. DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP ON THE PLAINS
TIL EVENING...AND EVEN THEN INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE
FOOTHILLS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR LITTLE MORE THAN SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS...AND NOT TOO FAR FROM THE FRONT RANGE. PLAN TO LOWER POPS
TO 10-20 PCT ON THE PLAINS AGAIN WITH THE HIGHER POPS UP AGAINST THE
FOOTHILLS.

MODELS SHOW THIS LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE WX DISTURBANCE AND ITS BATCH
OF MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR PASSING OVER NERN COLORADO ON
THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE LOWERING CLOUD
BASES AND SLIGHTLY GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE EAST OF THE MTNS
WHICH WILL ALLOW MORE RAIN TO REACH THE GROUND ON THE PLAINS. THOUGH
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. FOR NOW WILL HANG ONTO 10-20
PCT POPS ON THE PLAINS AND 30-60 PCT POPS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. WILL
ALSO HOLD ONTO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES ALSO LOWER ON THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME READINGS 4-8 DEG F
LOWER THAN THE DAY BEFORE. MEAN LAYER FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY BY
EVENING WITH TROUGH PASSAGE RESULTING IN A QUICK END TO PRECIP AND
CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING EAST OVER THE STATE
AGAIN CAUSING THE FLOW ALOFT TO TURN SWLY. THIS FLOW APPEARS TO
FUNNEL UP SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND WITH STG DAYTIME
HEATING...SHOULD SEE A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING T-STORMS MAINLY
OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
THROUGH MONDAY. DO NOT SEE MUCH CHANCE OF PRECIP EAST OF THE MTNS
DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY CREEP UP
FROM NEAR AVERAGE READINGS ON FRIDAY TO HIGH TEMPS 4-7 DEGS ABOVE
AVERAGE BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

ISOLATED STORMS OVER MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE MAY KICK OFF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS TERMINALS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...CHANCES LOOK ISOLATED SO WILL NOT INDICATE ANY
SHOWERS/GUSTY WINDS IN TERMINALS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE VFR WITH
SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING EAST TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND UNDER
12KT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN



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