Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 151745
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1045 AM MST MON DEC 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM MST MON DEC 15 2014

A BAND OF SNOW IS CONTINUING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS RIGHT
NOW. IT LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR A WHILE YET. PRETTY DECENT NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WERE BLOWING OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS RIGHT
NOW. THERE ARE SOME GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. THERE IS NOT MUCH SNOW
FALLING OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS. WILL MAKE APPROPRIATE
ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 353 AM MST MON DEC 15 2014

RADAR ECHOES CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AS
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER KANSAS CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY.
SOME HEAVIER SNOW BANDS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS
HAVE SHOWN DRAMATIC WEAKENING OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. WILL
ALLOW THE WARNING AND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 5 AM. AREAS OF LIGHTER SNOW
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING EAST OF A LINE FROM
GREELEY TO LIMON BUT WITH LITTLE MORE ACCUMULATION. NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE AREAS OF
REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW THIS MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON CONTINUING TO REDUCE VISIBILITY IN
BLOWING SNOW...EVEN THOUGH SNOW WILL NOT BE FALLING MUCH FROM THE
SKY ANY MORE. THIS SHORTWAVE AND RESULTING SURFACE FRONTAL
PUSH...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM LITTLE TODAY...WITH MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. OVER THE
MOUNTAINS....MOISTURE IS DECREASING BUT OROGRAPHICS WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE HIGH MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
MORNING...THEN LIKELY DROP OFF IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL ALLOW THE
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 5 AM WITH THE DROP IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. GUSTY
WINDS IN THE FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE AND WINDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING AS WELL. THIS
COULD PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW OVER HIGH PASSES.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER BY THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES.
THERE ARE SOME HINTS WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALLOWED TO COOL INTO THE TEENS TO SINGLE
DIGITS TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS FROM A SYSTEM OVER
THE WEST COAST IS PROGGED TO BEGIN TO MOVE OVERHEAD...LIKELY NOT
SOON ENOUGH TO STOP THE FOG FROM FORMING OR KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
DROPPING. HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUMS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MST MON DEC 15 2014

FAIRLY NORMAL DECEMBER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG
WITH A COUPLE CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS A BIT OF WARM ADVECTION MOISTURE AND CLOUD
COVER HEADED OUR WAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT
INCONSISTENT IN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH NAM LIKELY BEING TOO
WET...BUT STILL ENOUGH FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
MOST OF THESE SHOULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING HOURS WITH SOME DRYING
NOTED BY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER BUT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER THAN NORMAL
OVER THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW COVER ON THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.

A DEEPER BUT BROAD TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM
THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ALSO ANTICIPATED TO WORK ONTO THE PLAINS GIVEN WEAK Q-G SUPPORT.
MOST OF THE SUPPORT DOES STAY TO OUR SOUTH THOUGH SO WILL MAINTAIN
ONLY LOW POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD ON THE PLAINS.

BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGING POPPING UP OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS
COULD BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES...BUT COOL HIGH PRESSURE AND SOME
SNOW COVER OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY NEGATE MOST OF THE
WARMING.

THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS STILL EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
REGION BY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL AGAIN BE TO
OUR SOUTH SO ONLY LOW POPS AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES
WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1035 AM MST MON DEC 15 2014

BASED ON REAL DATA...THE STRONGER NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
MAY NOT MAKE IT INTO DIA TODAY. OPTED NOT TO PUT THEM IN THE
LATEST TAF...BUT WILL MONITOR UPSTREAM WIND FIELDS CLOSELY. THERE
SHOULD BE NO CEILING ISSUES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJK
SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...RJK



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