Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 021739
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1239 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR AND DRY WITH UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD AND MODEST SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH NEAR THE TEXAS-NEW MEXICO LINE. MODEST SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT BREEZES MAINLY LATE MORNING...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A
SEPARATE CHANGE GROUP AT THIS POINT. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SPEEDS UP IN THE UPPER TEENS. HOWEVER...SPEED/DIRECTION
CRITERIA FOR THE PERIOD OF HIGHEST WIND SHOULD BE MAINTAINED
THROUGHOUT. DIRECTION VARIANCE FROM 160-200 DEGREES IS EXPECTED
DURING PERIODS OF WINDS BELOW 10 KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA.  A WEAKNESS
IN THE HIGH IS NOTED ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST AND MONSOONAL FETCH
IS LOCATED TO OUR WEST.  IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES.  HIGH RESOLUTION DATA DEPICTS A DRY PICTURE
FOR THE SHORT TERM AND HAVE NO REASON TO DIVERGE FROM THIS THINKING.
CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN FIRE ACROSS NEW MEXICO BUT REMAIN WELL
TO THE WEST.  TEMPS WONT CHANGE MUCH BUT WE SHOULD SEE SOME
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS INTO TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...
THE RATHER STAGNATE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES...AT LEAST
LOCALLY...AS AN UA RIDGE STRETCHED FROM SW TO NE PREVAILED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SAID UA RIDGE IS STILL
PROGGED TO SHIFT JUST ENOUGH EAST OF THE CWA BY THE END OF THIS WEEK
TO PERHAPS ALLOW THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE OFF TO OUR WEST /WITH AN
ADDITIONAL PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FOURTEEN-E THOUGH THE BRUNT OF IT WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST/ TO
IMPINGE ON THE FAR WRN AND NWRN ZONES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS SLUG OF PACIFIC MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A NEARBY SFC TROUGH AND
DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION MAY RESULT IN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. THEREAFTER...THE UA
RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE BACK TO THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
MAY QUICKLY BECOME DE-AMPLIFIED WHILST SHIFTING A BIT SOUTH OF THE
FA COURTESY OF AN A NW PACIFIC DISTURBANCE TRACKING ENE ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS AND TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH
PERHAPS ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC
ROUNDING THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE UA RIDGE...BEING CONCURRENT
WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH TO ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE
MONDAY/TUESDAY...SUGGESTS THAT CHANCES FOR PRECIP IS PLAUSIBLE
/ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN ZONES/. IT IS HOWEVER TOO EARLY TO SAY
WITH DEFINITIVE CONFIDENCE THAT THE UA RIDGE WILL INDEED FLATTEN
OUT AND SHIFT SOUTH...BECAUSE IT COULD REMAIN UNCHANGED AND
PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THUS MITIGATING STORM
POTENTIAL. THE SUPER-BLENDED SOLUTION DEPICTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA MONDAY-TUESDAY APPEARS VALID
ATTM...BUT MAY NEED TO BE AMENDED IF THINGS DO NOT GO ACCORDING TO
WHAT THE RECENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING.

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS /80S AND 90S/ FOLLOWED BY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS...IS ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  91  63  89 /  10  10  10  20
TULIA         63  91  64  90 /   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     64  91  64  90 /   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     63  92  66  91 /   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       66  93  67  91 /   0   0  10   0
DENVER CITY   64  92  65  91 /   0   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    64  93  67  91 /   0   0  10  10
CHILDRESS     70  96  70  95 /   0   0  10   0
SPUR          67  94  70  93 /   0   0  10   0
ASPERMONT     70  96  72  95 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05


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