Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 212036

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
336 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2016

Dry and mild weather will remain through Thursday as an upper level
ridge axis migrates slowly to the east but with only light southwest
flow aloft. A disturbance ejecting into southern Colorado, ahead of
the next significant upper level low pressure system now bearing
down on Gold Beach Oregon, will clear north and northeast tonight
and Thursday. The upper level shear axis overhead will relax and
move northeast and the cirrus should thin.

Thursday should warm nicely to around 5 degrees above normal after a
seasonably mild night mostly in the 60s, though with the typical
pockets of upper 50s yet on the Caprock. Low level southerly flow
will remain in place with a modest lee side surface low pressure
trough along the Front Range deepening some by Thursday afternoon.

All eyes are on the upper low currently moving into the west as it
will bring the promise of a decent late September cold front along
with increased rain chances over the weekend. The center of the
upper low is progged to cross the Great Basin and then eject
northeastward over the Rockies late week and then the northern High
Plains early this weekend before solutions diverge. Although the
bulk of the lift with the initial upper low will stay north of the
area, a piece of energy is still expected to carve out a trough
across the southern Rockies that will then swing across the South
Plains region in some form or fashion this weekend, perhaps even
lingering nearby into Monday if the ECMWF is correct.

In advance of the storm system southerly flow will result in a warm
day on Friday with highs several degrees above average. There may
be an outside chance of a shower/storm across the Rolling Plains
as moisture and instability increase and inhibition weakens,
though lack of any clear forcing mean PoPs remain low in the
10-15% range. Better storm chances will spread in from the west
late Friday into early Saturday as a surface trough/Pacific front
approaches and large scale lift grazes the region. The best storm
chances may then shift into the Rolling Plains Saturday afternoon
and evening where moderate instability, improving deep layer shear
and PWAT values in excess could result in a few strong to severe
storms capable of producing locally heavy rain.

A seasonably strong cold front is then expected to follow on Sunday
with gusty northerly winds advecting in cooler air. We may see rain
chances linger into Sunday though there is some concern drier air
moving in at the lower levels (and potentially aloft) could quickly
bring them to an end. Given this we have trimmed back PoPs a bit
Sunday into Monday, though have still maintained slight chance to
chance PoPs for much of the area (favoring the southeastern zones).
Eventually drier air will win out in the wake of the storm system
with dry conditions expected for most of next week. Outside of the
rain chances, the front will drop highs down into the 60s and 70s on
Sunday and Monday before a gradual warming trend thereafter. Lows
Sunday and Monday nights will be down in the 40s and lower 50s
making for a fall-like feel.


.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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