Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 261704
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1204 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. CHECK DENSITY ALTITUDE.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH WHICH HAS PERSISTED ABOVE THE REGION
FOR SOME TIME IS PROGGED TO DRIFT EASTWARD SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS RESULTING IN A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES.  ONCE AGAIN...H7 FRONTOGENESIS WILL HAVE SOME
EFFECTS ON THE WRN PANHANDLE WHERE A FEW NOCTURNAL STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED.  THIS FEATURE APPEARS MUCH WEAKER FOR TONIGHT THOUGH
RETURNS FOR MONDAY NIGHT SO WE SHALL SEE.  DESPITE THE EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER HIGH...BULK OF MONSOONAL TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE REGION WITH LOW RISKS FOR NOCTURNAL SHOWERS
NW OF A TULIA TO MORTON LINE.  OTHERWISE...HOT AND DRY WX CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NEWD TO THE OZARK
PLATEAU AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTN. THIS DEVELOPMENT COMBINED WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTL ROCKIES WILL ALLOW
FOR MID TO UPPER LEVEL SWLY FLOW TO MOVE OVER THE REGION IN TURN
POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR LEE TROUGH DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE
INTO THE NWRN ZONES TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER RIDGE
EXPAND BACK TO THE WEST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS TO
THE GREAT LAKES AND ERN CANADA...BUT THE INTRODUCTION OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT MAY SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR THUNDER INITIATION. BEYOND
WEDNESDAY THE PRECIP FCST GETS CLOUDIER. THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
OVER THE WRN CONUS...BUT A HEALTHY EXTENSION OF IT TO THE
SOUTHEAST COULD KEEP THE FCST AREA CAPPED DESPITE SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW. PATTERN SUGGESTS NOTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ATTM. LOWER THICKNESSES WITH THE SHIFT OF THE UPPER RIDGE
POINTS TO MODEST COOLING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THE
REASSERTION OF THE RIDGE SHOULD RETURN TEMPS TO RECENT FORM BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        66  94  67  95 /   0   0   0  10
TULIA         68  94  68  95 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     68  93  69  94 /   0   0  10   0
LEVELLAND     69  95  70  95 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       71  95  71  94 /   0   0  10   0
DENVER CITY   69  95  69  95 /   0   0  10   0
BROWNFIELD    70  96  70  95 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     74  99  74  99 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          72  98  72  97 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     76  99  75  99 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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