Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 280810

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
310 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

At 3 am, the last dying remnants of a small t-storm cluster are
exiting the southern South Plains into the northern Permian Basin.
Water vapor imagery shows an upper-level ridge centered over the 4-
corners and extending across nrn New Mexico into northwest Texas.
The ridge is forecast to expand slightly eastward today - resulting
in a bit more convective inhibition across the forecast area. We may
still be able to get a few storms to fire this afternoon across the
southern Rolling Plains, farthest away from the ridge`s influence.
Otherwise, we are looking at another hot day - temperatures should
be near or slightly warmer than yesterday`s highs which ranged from
lows 90s in the far southern TX Panhandle to near 100 in the
southern Rolling Plains. Tonight, we will turn our attention to the
north to Colo and Kansas where guidance indicates that a t-storm
complex will develop and then roll southeast into the eastern TX
Panhandle and western Okla early Friday morning. While the exact
track is uncertain, we could see some development along the outflow
running on the western flank of the complex. For now we will confine
our PoPs to the southeast TX Panhandle - closest to the most likely
track. The complex will likely be decreasing in intensity as the low-
level jet veers and weakens after midnight, but it could still pose
a strong wind threat if it remains well organized.

Chances of convection may not be totally kaput early this weekend
as models had been suggesting. The upper ridge settled to our west
will reposition to the east early next week. However, before this
occurs, lingering mid level moisture will rotate around the
northeast side of the upper ridge down into West Texas on Friday
and Saturday evenings. This will primarily favor the southwestern
Texas Panhandle for convection with storms initiating off of the
higher terrain of New Mexico and southeastern Colorado. By next
week, models are not inspiring confidence in the forecast. The
position of the upper ridge is somewhat in question and may make
the difference in the area observing any thunderstorms within a
monsoonal moisture plume mainly to the west of the area.


.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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