Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 291101
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
601 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WEST TEXAS CONTINUES TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WHICH HAS MADE FORECASTING CONVECTION NOT SO FUN. WV SHOWS NO
OBVIOUS HINTS OF SHORTWAVES NEAR THE FA BUT DOES SHOW DEEP MOISTURE
IN AND AROUND THE RIDGE. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE FORMED OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS ALONG THE REMNANTS OF A SURFACE FRONT ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWESTERN ROW OF COUNTIES...HOWEVER THESE SHOWERS APPEAR TOO
SMALL TO PRODUCE MORE THAN JUST A FEW ISOLATED DROPS. THIS BOUNDARY
ALONG WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE GIVES OUR
WESTERN THIRD COUNTIES THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN WHICH 20 POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT.

HEIGHT THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TOMORROW AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS FURTHER NORTHWESTWARD WHICH WILL FURTHER LIMIT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AND HELP WARM TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO OVER WHAT WE HAVE
SEEN TODAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS HAS BEEN
THE STORY LATELY IS ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT IN PLACE.

LONG TERM...
SRN CONUS HIGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD TO NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
ON THU AND FRI AS THE MAIN JET ENERGY REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA.  NWP THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT THE HIGH WILL STAY OUT WEST
FOR THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED. THE ECM AND NAM SUGGEST THAT A
COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AS THE RESULT OF
TRAILING ENERGY FROM A LOW UP NEAR HUDSON BAY. AS IT HAS BEEN
QUITE EASY TO GET PRECIPITATION GOING THIS SUMMER AND ANALYZING
THE WAY THINGS HAVE GONE WITH LAST NIGHT/S CONVECTION...AM
INCLINED TO TREND THIS WAY RATHER THAN THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION
WHICH KEEPS THE FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. AFTER SO MANY YEARS OF
DRY WEATHER OUT THIS WAY...IT IS REFRESHING TO SEE THE RAIN COMING
A BIT EASIER. PRETTY MUCH EACH DAY OF THIS WEEK-LONG FORECAST
SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SCT TSTM DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHERE IN OUR CWFA
THOUGH A DRYING TREND CERTAINLY SEEMS TO SET IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DECREASE A FEW DEGREES LATE THIS WEEK BUT THEY
WILL BE RIGHT BACK UP NEXT WEEK AS THINGS DRY OUT...AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        86  66  87  65 /  40  40  20  10
TULIA         89  69  88  67 /  30  30  20  10
PLAINVIEW     90  69  90  67 /  20  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     92  70  92  69 /  20  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       92  72  92  70 /  20  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   93  71  92  69 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    93  72  93  70 /  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     98  75  96  73 /  10  10  10  10
SPUR          96  74  96  72 /  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     98  76  98  75 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/26/



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