Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 250003
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
703 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.AVIATION...
The surface dryline remains quasi-stationary from near KLBB to
near KPVW, currently has surged through KLBB but may retreat
shortly as well. We are not seeing any thunderstorm development
until far north into Armstrong and Donley counties, but these
cells we will need to watch as they could turn more to the east or
even to the southeast during the mid and late evening potentially
impacting KCDS. For now we have no thunder mentioned at any TAF
site. Low level southerly flow expected through the night. Short
range solutions are not indicating low cloud deck reaching any
site either Wednesday morning, and TAFs are VFR. Low level flow
should veer a bit more to the southwest early Wednesday with
dryline ending up slightly east of todays location. RMcQueen

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 324 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

SHORT TERM...
The dryline is a bit slow to move eastward early this afternoon.
Analysis at 19z indicates it just west of a Dimmitt to Brownfield
line with some localized confluence along it. Immediately to its
east enough mixing has occurred to lower dew point temperatures into
the 50s and lower 60s while not too far to the east of I-27 dew
points linger in the upper 60s to lower 70s. This setup has primed
the pump with plenty of instability waiting to be released. Question
of the day is will it? Multiple hi-resolution models, including the
HRRR, RUC, and TTU-WRF, now showing storms breaking out just east of
the dryline by 22Z but a dearth of precipitation south of about
Plainview. Progged soundings indicate a pretty uniform CAPE and CIN
pattern to the east of the dryline. The difference may be the mid
level jet streak ejecting across Sonora and southern New Mexico,
eventually to cross the South Plains. This may both support storms
to its north and quash them underneath. This still means the focus
for the forecast area will be the northeastern quadrant, and
possibly more specifically Briscoe, Hall, and Childress counties.
Will nudge PoP up a bit there, trim some for areas immediately east
and southeast of Lubbock, and pull back slight mention just a bit to
the west from Plainview northward to account for the slower dryline
progression. Everything still in place for severe potential per
earlier discussions. Any cluster of storms that forms in the
southeastern Panhandle would pose a flooding threat over areas
already hit hard the last two evenings.

The aforementioned mid level jet will exit the region to the east
late tonight. Slim chance that energy from it will interact with
robust low to mid level moisture to result in some convection late
tonight across the southeast. Will keep the slight chance mention
inherited from the midnight shift. More importantly, the egress of
this jet streak will result in veering winds areawide on Wednesday,
mainly from the southwest. This should scour most of the low level
moisture out of the forecast area. The exception could be the
southeast corner of the area where enough low level moisture could
hang on to not completely rule out precip mention. However, with the
veering winds and any low level convergence out of the area will
keep the forecast a dry one at this time. With the drier air in
place temperatures will have a chance to push well into the 90s
Wednesday afternoon.

LONG TERM...
Little change in model depiction and thinking in the long term.
Pattern continues to indicate a persistent trough to the west with
upper level impulses ejecting over an almost daily presence of
a dryline. Trough axis has shifted farther east slightly for the
end of the week resulting in a continuing shift eastward of the
dryline and pushing convection farther east into the Rolling
Plains later Thursday afternoon into early Friday.

Weak ridge passes across West Texas Friday and Saturday providing
a quick respite from convection. Moisture return builds back in
quickly under the exiting ridge late Saturday as upper low
continues to deepen across the dessert southwest. Our next best
chance at widespread rainfall looks to begin in earnest early
Sunday afternoon extending through Memorial Day on Monday. Upper
level flow appears to be similarly anemic with best flow on
northern portion of southern jet late Sunday. Bulk shear would
still support a chance of some severe storms especially given the
time of year across our eastern and southeastern zones. Overall
temperatures remained the same and will be slight warmer than
normal.

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/05



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