Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 200538 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1238 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

VFR conditions in place but expect MVFR ceilings to develop
within the next couple of hours at all three TAF sites. MVFR
ceilings will remain in place through the middle of the morning
before returning to VFR conditions by tomorrow afternoon.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 718 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017/

Plentiful low level moisture will remain overnight and into
Tuesday morning, with low level flow gradually turning a little
more southeast to southerly. Short term solutions indicate decent
opportunity for low cloud development early Tuesday morning KLBB
and KPVW especially, and we have boosted previous forecast to a
ceiling. There also is a chance for IFR conditions, which we will
dive into further as we take a look at the evening guidance.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 346 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017/

The cloudy morning has helped to keep temperatures in check with 20Z
readings only in the lower and middle 80s. We should secure our
second day in a row of below average high temperatures after the
recent stretch of 100+ degree days. The light and relatively moist
upslope flow will persist tonight and this will provide fuel for
another round of low clouds and patchy fog early Tuesday, which is
pretty impressive for our longest day of the year. A minority of
the NWP does even suggest potential for an isolated elevated
shower or storm early Tuesday. However with water vapor imagery
showing dry subsidence spreading southward across the region think
the potential for convection is pretty low and have kept PoPs AOB
10 percent.

The main story through the rest of the week will be the warming
trend supplied by a strong upper ridge that will reside across the
Desert Southwest. Highs will rebound a few degrees above average
tomorrow and then into the upper 90s to near 100 mid-week. Most
spots will then see a return of triple digits for the last couple
days of the week when a heat advisory may be need. In addition to
the heat, low storm chances may occasionally visit the area.
Scattered convection is expected to fire from northeast NM into
western KS Tuesday afternoon and evening, but will have difficulty
making it into the CWA before diminishing under northerly flow
aloft. Wednesday evening/overnight may see a better shot of storms,
at least across the north and northwest zones, as a weak shortwave
trough and northwest flow aloft graze the area. A strengthening of
the eastern periphery of the upper ridge will likely squash storm
chances Thursday. This may change though by late Friday or Saturday
as a broad trough cutting across the northern tier of the nation
sends a cold front southward. NWP remains split on whether the front
will move through late Friday, late Saturday or on Sunday. This will
have a big impact on temperatures and thunderstorm chances. Ahead of
the front highs will still threaten the triple digits while behind
the front they may not make it out of the upper 70s and lower 80s.
For now, we have played the middle ground, reflecting a cooling
trend into the 80s and 90s on Saturday before dipping below average
late weekend into early next week. Hopefully the quicker FROPA
advertised by the GFS is correct, but a slower ECMWF is just as
likely at this point. Thunderstorm chances should increase as the
front moves through, with relatively moist post-frontal upslope flow
combine with weak northwest flow aloft keeping storm chances going
through the weekend.




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