Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 151120
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
420 AM MST Wed Feb 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 420 AM MST Wed Feb 15 2017

Today and Tonight...

Dry and warmer weather returns today as the upper ridge continues to
nose over top east-west oriented trof across the southern U.S.
Temperatures today will warm around 10 degrees over yesterday for
most areas.  Exception will be the San Luis Valley and southwest and
central mountains where temperatures will be similar to a degree or
two warmer. Winds will remain fairly light.

Should be warmer tonight along the lee of the mountains were lee
troffing and some enhanced westerly drainage flow will continue.
Otherwise clear skies will allow temperatures to cool efficiently
where winds decouple.  Have cut a few degrees off model blends for
MinT tonight...particularly in these typically cool spots which puts
values closer in line with guidance.  -KT

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 420 AM MST Wed Feb 15 2017

Not many adjustments required from previous meteorological
reasoning with main longer term concerns continuing to be
temperatures, gusty winds at times and increasing pops this
weekend.

Latest longer term forecast model soundings, PV analysis and
computer simulations indicate that a basically dry and warm upper
ridging pattern will be noted over the forecast district from
Thursday into Saturday morning with upper flow becoming more
southerly from Saturday into Sunday morning as closed upper low
off the coast of southern California at 12Z Saturday shifts into
southern Arizona by 18Z Sunday and then into the 4-Corners region
by 00Z Monday before making its way into northeastern Colorado by
07Z Monday and then weakening and lifting into the Dakotas on
Monday.

At the surface, varying degrees of eastern Colorado lee-side
trough is anticipated from Thursday into Friday and then again
from Sunday into Sunday night.

For sensible weather, still project that generally dry conditions
should be experienced over the majority of the forecast district
from Thursday into Saturday night with the exception of some
light showers at times over portions of the Continental Divide.

As projected closed upper low draws closer and then moves across
Colorado, anticipate that increased precipitation coverage and
intensity should be noted over many portions of the forecast
district from Sunday into Sunday night/early Monday morning with
drier conditions then returning from later Monday into Tuesday.

Above to well above seasonal temperatures(especially over eastern
portions of the forecast district) are anticipated during the
longer term with warmest maximum temperatures expected Thursday
and Friday.

Finally, it still appears that the highest potential for gusty
winds during the longer term should be experienced from Saturday
night into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 420 AM MST Wed Feb 15 2017

VFR conditions with winds under 15 kts expected at the TAF sites
today. There is a small chance that patchy IFR fog could develop
tonight at KALS tonight...but odds look too low to include potential
in the TAF at this point. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$



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