Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 291045
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
445 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE SE MTS/PLAINS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE
SE MTS...

MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TODAY
IN AND NEAR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND LOCALIZED POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY ON AREA BURN SCARS.  UPPER TROF ACROSS
NORTHERN CO WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY SE TODAY.  MEANWHILE...FLOW
AT THE SURFACE BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY VEER NE TO
EASTERLY BY AFTERNOON.  WHILE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS SUGGEST DEW
POINTS WILL FALL OFF SOME BEHIND THE FRONT BY AFTERNOON...UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL ALSO PUSH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE SE MTS...RESULTING IN A NET INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.  DEPENDING ON THE MODEL...DEW
POINTS SHOULD STAY IN THE 40S...TO EVEN AROUND 50 ACROSS THE SE
CORNER OF THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD YIELD CAPE
VALUES UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG...WHICH IS LOWER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS
...BUT IS STILL RESPECTABLE. SHEAR IS CERTAINLY STRONGER TODAY WITH
EASTERLY FLOW BENEATH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SO ONE OR TWO STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES
OF THE SE MTS...AND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS/NRN RATON
RIDGE AREA WHERE HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO HANG IN.
SPC HAS THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ENCOMPASSING LAS
ANIMAS...BACA...PROWERS...BENT COUNTIES. GIVEN THE PROJECTED
CAPE...THIS LOOKS REASONABLE.  HOWEVER...COULD ALSO ENVISION THIS
RISK AREA BEING EXPANDED NORTHWARD A BIT TO INCLUDE THE SE MTS OF
CUSTER...HUERFANO COUNTIES AS WELL AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO TELLER AND
LOCATIONS ALONG/WEST OF I-25...BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAN LINGERS INTO THE AFTN.  INTERESTINGLY...HRRR
IS STILL AGGRESSIVELY DRYING OUT SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS TELLER COUNTY
THIS AFTERNOON...DRIVING THEM DOWN TO AROUND 30 DEGREES BY 21Z.
GIVEN THE NE UPSLOPE FLOW...SUSPECT HRRR IS OVERDOING THE AMOUNT OF
DRYING...AND LEANED FORECAST GRIDS MORE TOWARDS THE UPPER 30 DEW
POINTS TO AROUND 40 THAT THE NAM AND RAP PORTRAY.  SO EVEN FOR
TELLER/WRN EL PASO COUNTY THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
EMBEDDED STRONG TO NEAR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.  THUS
THIS RAISES CONCERNS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ON THE WALDO BURN SCAR AS
WELL AS OTHER BURN SCARS IN THE SE MTS...SUCH AS EAST PEAK.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE HIT OR MISS...AND COVERAGE DOESN`T LOOK
GREAT ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.  BUT
CERTAINLY WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND FORCING FROM
THE TROF COMING IN...THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING IN AND NEAR THE BURN SCARS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD ONE OF
THESE STRONGER STORMS IMPACT THESE AREAS.  LOCATIONS WITH  SATURATED
SOIL CONDITIONS FROM RECENT RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE AT RISK TODAY.

MEANWHILE...ATMOS IS QUITE A BIT DRIER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MTS/SAN
LUIS VALLEY...SO GENERALLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT WITH GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

MODELS DIFFER WITH HOW CONVECTION EVOLVES OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS WITH GFS MUCH WETTER FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
SE PLAINS VS THE 00Z NAM12. 06Z NAM HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE
GFS...BUT GIVEN HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT IS AT THIS TIME...IT COULD
ALSO BE CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED.  WILL HANG ON TO POPS THROUGH THE
NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...WITH HIGHEST VALUES SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50...BUT COVERAGE IN MODELS IS PROBABLY OVERDONE AS WE
PROGRESS TOWARDS 12Z SAT.  THINK BEST FOCUS FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE ALONG THE FRONT WELL TO OUR SOUTH AFTER 06Z. -KT

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

NOT MANY ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED DURING THE LONGER TERM WITH PRIMARY
METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS BEING TEMPERATURES AND POPS.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND PV ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT FORECAST DISTRICT SHOULD EXPERIENCE
WARMER CONDITIONS(ESPECIALLY FROM SUNDAY INTO THURSDAY) IN
COMBINATION WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS(POTENTIALLY SEVERE AT
TIMES...PRIMARILY NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER) AS VARYING DEGREES OF
UPPER RIDGING TO SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW INTERACTS WITH AVAILABLE
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.

INITIALLY...UPPER RIDGING LOCATED OVER EASTERN ARIZONA SATURDAY
NIGHT SHIFTS ACROSS COLORADO DURING THE SUNDAY AND MONDAY TIME-
FRAME. THE DAILY OROGRAPHIC REGIME WHEN COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL ALLOW PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CWFA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS SHOULD FAVOR FAR EASTERN SECTIONS BOTH
DAYS AS PROJECTED LOCALIZED LIS...CAPES AND 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES REACH -4C...1200 J/KG AND 40 KNOTS AT TIMES RESPECTIVELY.

THEN GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE
CWFA FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR WARM TEMPERATURES IN
COMBINATION WITH CONTINUED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS.

OUTSIDE OF SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO RUN ABOVE
LATE MAY/EARLY JUNE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER THE MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST DISTRICT WITH WARMEST CONDITIONS ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR ANTICIPATED FROM MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. IN
ADDITION...BASICALLY LOW-GRADE GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD BE NOTED OVER
THE FORECAST DISTRICT INTO NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WITH UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...KCOS AND
KPUB STAND A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING -TSRA IN THE VCNTY OF THE
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH KCOS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE. CIGS
WILL PRIMARILY BE VFR TO MVFR...THOUGH STRONGER STORMS IN AND NEAR
THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS COULD SEE LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WITH +TSRA.  BEST
WINDOW FOR -TSRA TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS WILL BE FROM 18Z-00Z.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
SE PLAINS AND BANK UP ALONG THE NORTHEAST FACING SLOPES OF THE SE
MTS AND NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE RATON RIDGE.  CIGS IN THESE AREAS
COULD DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY BY SAT MORNING WITH MTN
OBSCURATIONS.

ACROSS THE WESTERN MTS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MTS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY WHERE DRIER AIR WILL
REMAIN.  VFR CIGS WITH HIGHER BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS.  -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$


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