Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 202155

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
355 PM MDT Mon Mar 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 355 PM MDT Mon Mar 20 2017


Another warm day with record highs. 80s prevail across the plains
with 70s in the valleys and 40s and 50s in the mtns. A bit more high
cloudiness across the region today than days past as mstr from the
southwest moves over the region. winds were relatively light
although some gusty winds were noted in a few spots in El Paso

Rest of today and tonight...

Variable high cloudiness will move across the region through the
period. We will see another mild night, however a weak cool front
will back-door into the region late this evening with the front
making it towards the I-25 corridor towards sunrise. Areas of low
clouds will likely make it into CO, but believe they should not make
it too far west, mainly reaching as far west as the KLHX region.


Quite a bit cooler over the region tomorrow as compared to the last
few days, although it will still be above normal for the date across
the region. Coolest weather on the plains will remain over the far
eastern plains where E Kiowa county will likely remain in the 50s
tomorrow, while areas along the i-25 corridor will reach into the
L/M70s. RH values will be noticeably higher, especially over the far
e plains. However, even the mtns and I-25 corridor should see
humidity values above 15% in the afternoon.

Isolated showers will be possible tomorrow across the Contdvd, with
a few light showers even making it to the Pikes Peak region by late
afternoon. Most of the precip at lower elevations will fall as virga
with some gusty winds possible.

Winds will be diurnal tomorrow with east to southwest winds across
all of the plains and southerlies across El Paso county. Modest
southwesterlies will prevail in the mtns and valleys.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 355 PM MDT Mon Mar 20 2017

...Increasing winds leading to high fire danger Wednesday and

...A strong system possibly brining heavy snow and rain to the area
Thursday and Friday...

Tuesday night-Wednesday...Cooler airmass remains over the plains
Tuesday night and begins moving eastward on Wednesday. Model
soundings suggest the potential for some stratus across the plains
Tuesday night, with clouds diminishing from west to east through the
day Wednesday, as a minor short wave translates across the state.
There still is the potential for some light precipitation over the
mountains and plains with the passing wave, though amounts continue
to look very light. Lee troughing across the eastern plains to allow
for breezy south to southwest winds across the I-25 corridor and
breezy south to southeast winds across the far southeast plains
Wednesday afternoon, with the potential for critical fire weather
conditions, mainly west of the trough.

Wednesday night-Friday...Models continue to carve out a deep upper
trough across the Great Basin and into the Desert Southwest
Wednesday night and develop a closed upper low in the vicinity of
the Colorado and New Mexico border Thursday afternoon, which then
continues to lift north and east through the day Friday. There
remains some slight differences on location and movement of this
system, however, all model solutions suggest the system could bring
much needed rain and snow the south central and southeast Colorado
from Wednesday night through Friday. However, the exact track of the
system remains in question which could lead to more or less
precipitation across the area. People should pay attention to the
latest forecasts for this potentially high impact storm system for
later this week.

At any rate, should see rain and snow increasing across the the
ContDvd Wednesday night, with moist south to southwest flow
increasing ahead of the system. Snow looks to increase in coverage
and intensity through the day Thursday as the system deepens across
the CO/NM border. There could be advisory to low end warning
snowfall across the ContDvd, and will need to monitor later models
for potential winter weather highlights by later shifts.

Further east, strong southerly winds across the eastern plains on
Thursday will bring high fire danger to the area once again,
especially along and west of the I-25 Corridor. There remains the
potential for strong to severe storms along a dry line across the
far southeast plains Thursday afternoon and evening, especially if
the ECMWF solution is more correct. Once the system wraps up,
widespread rain and higher elevation snow looks to develop across
the eastern mountains and plains Thursday night and Friday, with
precipitation winding down from west to east late Friday afternoon
and evening. Way to early to talk about snow levels, amounts and
accumulations, though preliminary sounding data suggests snow levels
down to 6000-7000 feet with significant accumulations possible
across the Pikes Peak Region Thursday night and Friday. This,
combined with developing strong northerly winds, could lead to very
hazardous travel conditions, especially along and north of the
Palmer Dvd, through the day Friday. Significant accumulations remain
possible further south across the Wet and Sangre De Cristo Mountains
and Raton Mesa, as well, though again depend on the track of the
system. Widespread rain develops across the rest of the eastern
plains through the day Friday, as trowel and wraparound
precipitation shield moves across the area, with data suggesting 1/2
to 1 inch of precipitation possible when all said and done. Again,
time will tell. Stay tuned!

Saturday-Monday...Warmer and drier weather on tap for early in the
weekend, with another embedded system possibly moving across the
state later Sunday and Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 355 PM MDT Mon Mar 20 2017

VFR anticipated next 24h at KCOS, KPUB and KALS. Winds will be
diurnally driven but will be on the breezy side, especially at KALS
tomorrow afternoon.




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