Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 142243
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
343 PM MST Tue Nov 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 343 PM MST Tue Nov 14 2017

Surface cold front currently moving through northeast CO will be
dropping south of the Palmer Divide late this afternoon, and through
all of the southeast plains by 03z. Ahead of the front today,
temperatures have soared across southern CO to well above
climatological normals, though not within reach of record values for
PUB and COS (which are: PUB 82 in 1990, COS 77 in 1936). However,
Alamosa has broken their old record high of 65 degrees in 1999 with
the new value of 67. Meanwhile...spotty critical fire weather
conditions have been realized across portions of Chaffee, Fremont
and Huerfano counties this afternoon where fuels are not yet
considered critical given recent precipitation.  Critical fire
weather conditions will persist for another hour or two before
sundown when winds decrease and humidity values come up.

With the arrival of the cold front, will see a wind shift from the
northwest to north in the 15-25 mph range before winds decrease
overnight.  Cooler temperatures are in store for Wednesday along
with lighter winds, especially for the southeast plains where values
should max out near to slightly below climo. There will be a slight
cool down (3-5 degrees) for the mountains on Wednesday, but
temperatures will remain above climo across western areas.  West
winds will still be gusty across the higher elevations of the
mountains in the afternoon with speeds around 15-30 mph.  -KT

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 343 PM MST Tue Nov 14 2017

Main meteorological issues during the longer term continues to be
increased pops(primarily from Thursday evening into Saturday
morning), gusty to strong winds as well as localized/spotty
elevated fire weather concerns at times and temperatures.

Latest forecast model soundings, PV/Precipitable Water analysis
and computer simulations indicate that dry zonal upper flow will
continue over southern Colorado into Thursday with a healthy upper
disturbance then impacting the forecast district during the
Thursday night into Friday night/Saturday morning time-frame.
Generally drier and warmer temperatures should then be noted
over the forecast district from later Saturday into Monday
evening as transitory upper ridging moves across the region.
Then, next system has the potential of generating some unsettled
conditions over primarily Continental Divide locations by next
Tuesday.

For sensible weather, expect basically dry conditions over the
CWFA from Wednesday evening into Thursday with warmest
temperatures during the longer term still anticipated Thursday.

Then, incoming system will generate increasing precipitation
chances from Thursday evening into Saturday morning with the
highest potential of accumulating snow over sections of the
Continental Divide(especially the central mountains) from Thursday
night into Friday evening. If recent trends continue, Winter
Weather highlights may become necessary during this time-frame as
we near this incoming event. Another meteorological concern
during the longer term will be increasing winds(especially from
Wednesday night into Friday evening). In addition, it appears
that the highest potential for localized/spotty elevated fire
weather concerns should be experienced both Thursday and Friday
afternoon(favoring eastern sections). As always, WFO Pueblo will
monitor the track, strength and development of this projected
incoming system closely.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 343 PM MST Tue Nov 14 2017

VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours.  A cold front will
bring a northerly wind shift around 10-15 kts at KCOS and KPUB early
this evening with winds gradually decreasing overnight.  ALS could
still see a brief window of southwest winds around 10-15 kts before
winds shift around from the northwest and diminish by 02z. Winds on
Wednesday will increase out of the south to southeast around 10-15
kts by afternoon for all three terminals. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$



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