Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 121743
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1043 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

FORECAST DISTRICT SHOULD EXPERIENCE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS IN
COMBINATION WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN WAKE OF COOL SURGE WHICH IS
CURRENTLY OVER EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE DRY NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PATTERN OF EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
GIVE WAY TO A DRY ZONAL UPPER FLOW PATTERN BY LATER TONIGHT.  AT THE
SURFACE...COOLER SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER EASTERN SECTIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT ALLOWING MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON TO RUN SOME 5F TO 13F COOLER OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS WHILE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT
SHOULD EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES WITHIN A CATEGORY OR SO OF READINGS
NOTED PREVIOUS 24 HOURS.

IN ADDITION...MAJORITY OF LOWER CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE SHOULD
REMAIN FOCUSED NORTHEAST TO EAST TO SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT INTO TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR EASTERN
SECTIONS FOR POSSIBLE INTRUSION...ESPECIALLY BY LATER TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION...GRADIENT WINDS ARE PROJECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WELL
BEHAVED INTO THIS EVENING WITH SOME INCREASING WINDS EXPECTED BY
LATER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

SAT MORNING IT LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ACRS PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS...MAINLY IN LOCATIONS NEAR THE KS
BORDER AND ALONG AND NR THE ARKANSAS RIVER FROM PUEBLO AND EASTWARD.
THE CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN MID AND LATE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...GENERALLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED ACRS THE
FORECAST AREA ON SAT...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS.

SAT NIGHT A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING FROM WY INTO NE WL SEND A DRY WEAK
FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO SERN CO.  DURING THE DAY SUN...NW FLOW ALOFT WL
BE OVR THE FORECAST AREA.  IN THIS NW FLOW...MSTR IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS AHEAD OF A DISTURBANCE...BRINGING A
GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME PCPN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS ON SUN WL
AGAIN BE ABOVE AVERAGE.  THAT DISTURBANCE WL THEN MOVE THRU
MAINLY ERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW SOME PCPN ACRS PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS SUN
NIGHT...WHILE THE NAM KEEPS THE SERN PLAINS DRY. WL GO WITH SOME
ISOLD POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS AND THE
PIKES PEAK AREA. THIS IS A QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE AREA EARLY MON MORNING. IN THE
MEANTIME...SOME LIGHT PCPN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVR THE CENTRAL
MTNS.

WITH A RIDGE SITTING OFF THE WEST COAST...NW FLOW ALOFT WL CONTINUE
OVR THE FORECAST AREA ON MON ALONG THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN
OVR THE CENTRAL CO MTNS.  THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WL BE DRY ON
MON WITH CONTINUED ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS.

ON TUE THE UPR RIDGE WL MOVE OVER THE WRN U.S. AND WL THEN MOVE OVR
CO ON WED.  THIS WL KEEP THE WX DRY AND WARM.  THU AND UPR TROF IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVR CA...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREEZY
SWRLY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE FORECAST
MODELS...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME PCPN MOVING INTO THE CONTDVD ON
THU...ESPECIALLY BY LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING. PLAINS NEAR THE KS BORDER MAY
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...BEFORE STRENGTHENING SW SURFACE WINDS PUSH ANY LOWER
CLOUDS INTO KS BY MIDDAY.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...PETERSEN



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