Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 220955

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
355 AM MDT Sat Apr 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 340 AM MDT Sat Apr 22 2017

...Showers Continue for Parts of the Area...

105 knot upper jet axis running parallel to a line running through
Breckenridge and Fountain this morning.  Upper jet is resulting in a
broad area of weak QG ascent along and near the jet axis.  At the
surface, low level usplope flow is occuring across the plains.  The
combination of the two are resulting in widespread light stratiform
precipitation centered over Pueblo County this morning.  This is an
unusual location for precipitation to be centered but when you have
the dynamics in the right place, anything can happen.  Models have
this same general area of precipitation occurring for a few more
hours but then shrinking pretty quickly after sunrise as the main
upper jet and QC ascent slip by to the southeast.  After about 9 am,
most of the activity that is left will be in the form of a few light
showers confined mainly to the mountains.  In the slightly colder
air on the north side of the precip area, across southern El Paso
County, some light snow has been mixing in with the precip down to
almost 6000 feet.  The Cheyenne Mountain, Schriever and Bullseye
ASOS units have been reporting some light snow at times this morning
at temperatures around 33 to 34 degrees.  This will continue until
the precip ends but little or no accumulation is expected across the
lower elevations.  However, the mountains of Pueblo, Custer, Fremont
and southern Teller Counties above about 7000 feet could maybe see
another 1 to 3 inches before the snow ends later this morning.

By this afternoon, most of the precip will be over but temperatures
will remain well below average for this time of year.  Tonight,
upper high pressure will build in over the region.  The airmass will
warm aloft but the surface air will still be cool for another night
of chilly temperatures.  Lows will generally be in the mid to upper
30s across the plains although a few spots could drop to near
freezing.  Mountain and high valley temperatures will generally be
in the mid 20s to lower 30s.  Most locations across the plains will
probably not see a frost tonight but a few spots could.  If you have
plants that you are concerned about, it`s probably a good idea to
protect them just in case.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 340 AM MDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Models in general agreement through the extended period with
active weather remaining in place across southern Colorado.

Sunday and Monday...high pressure on Sunday will shift east into
the Central Plains while an upper shortwave trough moves out of
Utah into Wyoming on Monday. Expect a warm dry day on Sunday with
increasing southwesterly flow by the afternoon. This will likely
lead to elevated fire weather conditions across the Plains during
the afternoon hours. Fuels will be the main question due to
recent rains. Highs on Sunday will top out in the 70s to lower 80s
across the Plains. Isolated shower activity will likely move into
the Central Mountains Sunday night and persist through the day on
Monday as the shortwave trough passes to the north. Snow levels
will be high with an inch or two possible above 12 kft. Flow will
continue to be strong across the area, with gusty winds expected
for Monday afternoon. More critical fire weather concerns are
expected, especially over the San Luis Valley where not much
precipitation has fallen. Temperatures will once again be warm
with 80s across the region.

Tuesday through Friday...a series of upper troughs are forecast to
drop south out of the Northern Rockies and across Colorado through
the end of the week. The first will arrive Tuesday and quickly
move into the Southern Plains by Wednesday morning. This will
bring a cold front and a round of showers to all of southern
Colorado Tuesday afternoon and evening. Temperatures will cool
behind the front with highs in the 70s.

The second upper disturbance is forecast to arrive Wednesday
afternoon. This is a much slower moving system with several pieces
of energy dropping across Colorado through Friday. Cooler
temperatures, with highs in the 50s and 60s are expected, and
overnight lows will likely fall into the mid 30s. Periods of
moderate to heavy rain may be possible and burn scars will likely
need to be monitored. It does look like a prolonged period of
beneficial rainfall for much of southern Colorado.  Mozley


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 340 AM MDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Weak QG ascent associated with 105 knot upper jet passing over the
area will continue to produce a fairly broad area of light rain and
snow centered over Pueblo County until around 12Z.  The area of
precipitation is expected to shrink between 12 and 15Z with just
isolated activity confined mainly to the mountains by 18Z.
Widespread MVFR to LIFR flight conditions can be expected with this
activity through 12Z, becoming scattered through 15Z and then just
isolated over the mountains by 18Z.  Both KCOS and KPUB will be
subject to these conditions.  KALS will not.  By 18Z, VFR conditions
are expected at all 3 terminal sites with these conditions then
expected to continue through the remainder of the forecast period.




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