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000
FXUS65 KPUB 260520
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1020 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

...UNSEASONABLY WARM MONDAY...

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. TRANSLATES EASTWARD INTO CO BY
MONDAY.  LEE TROF ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS TONIGHT WILL KEEP
THESE AREAS WARMER THAN PAST COUPLE NIGHTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SE MTS WHERE LOWS MAY ONLY DROP INTO THE
MID-UPPER 30S. ON MONDAY...H7 TEMPS WARM TO BETWEEN +3 AND +6C
ACROSS SOUTHERN CO.  THIS COULD PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES TO AROUND THE
70 DEGREE MARK FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...WITH 40S AND
50S...AND EVEN SOME LOWER 60S ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY.  SKIES SHOULD
BE SUNNY...BUT WITH WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT...WINDS WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE...WHICH MAY LIMIT MIXING SOME.  FOR THAT REASON THINK
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW THE RECORD HIGHS WHICH ARE...PUEBLO...74
IN 1951 COLORADO SPRINGS...68 IN 1982 ALAMOSA...57 IN 1982.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE DIFFERENCES ON TIMING...LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF WEAKENING
DESERT SW UPPER LOW EJECTING ACROSS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SLOWER AND
FURTHER WEST EJECTION OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH KEEPS BEST CHANCES OF
GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHWEST MTS TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH SPREADS NORTH ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL MTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. INCREASING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM AIR
ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA WILL LEAD TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL LOWS AREA
WIDE TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS TUESDAY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH DEVELOPING
DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND ONLY SLOWLY INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER. CURRENT RECORDS FOR JAN 27 ARE 55F AT ALS IN 1970...67F AT
COS IN 1970 AND 73F AT PUB IN 2003.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE LATEST OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE ECMWF IS
STRONGER...SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WHERE AS THE NAM...GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS
REMAIN FURTHER NORTH AND FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM. THE EC SOLUTION
WITH PRODUCE BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS
AND PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HOWEVER...HAVE STAYED
CLOSER TO MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPING SILENT POPS ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO WITH A DRY COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS PLAINS WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL KEEP HIGHS AT AND
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...WARMEST ACROSS THE
FAR SE PLAINS.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY...LOWER CONFIDENCE CONTINUES IN THE EXTENDED PORTION
OF THE FORECAST WITH A DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW REGIME AND MODELS
CONTINUING TO INDICATE DIFFERENCES IN THE WESTERN EXTENT OF COLDER
AIR AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH...AS WELL
AS THE TIMING...LOCATION AND AMOUNT OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL LOW
MEANDERING ACROSS THE DESERT SW. FOR NOW...HAVE STAYED AT OR BELOW
MODEL BLENDED POPS WHICH BRINGS IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BEST ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. TIME WELL TELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1017 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
LIGHT TERRAIN-DRIVEN WINDS. STILL A LOW THREAT OF SOME GROUND FOG
MOVING UP FROM THE RIO GRANDE AND ACROSS KALS NEAR SUNRISE
MONDAY...THOUGH WITH AIR MASS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE CONTINUING TO
DRY...WON`T INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE TAF.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...PETERSEN