103
FXUS65 KPUB 030542
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
Issued by National Weather Service Denver CO
1142 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Only isolated storms mountains til early evening. Scattered
  showers and storms Thursday afternoon and evening.

- Seasonable temperatures through the weekend and into next
  week.

- Isolated precipitation development over both the higher and
  lower terrain through the start of the weekend, with an
  increase in coverage early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 258 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Currently...generally clear skies continue this afternoon
across much of southern Colorado, with a few showers bubbling up
along the Continental Divide. Temperatures have warmed through
the 80s to near 90 across the Plains, and 70s over the San Luis
Valley. Expect an additional couple degrees of warming this
afternoon.

Rest of today and tonight...upper level ridging over Colorado
will slowly shift eastward through tonight, while an upper
trough moves out of California into southern Utah. Weak energy
under the upper ridge will lead to isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms along the Continental Divide this afternoon.
The main concerns from thunderstorms will be brief heavy
rainfall, lightning and outflow wind gusts near 40 mph. Any
showers and thunderstorms look to dissipate after sunset and the
loss of daytime heating. Overnight lows will fall into the 50s
and 60s across the Plains, with 40s forecast across the San Luis
Valley.

Thursday...the upper ridge will shift east into the Central
Plains, while the trough over southern Utah begins to move into
western Colorado. Flow aloft will transition southwesterly by
the afternoon. Another round of showers and thunderstorms are
forecast to develop by late morning to early afternoon along the
Continental Divide, then spread eastward during the afternoon,
including the San Luis valley and Sangre de Cristo Mountains.
Locally heavy rainfall, lightning, small hail and outflow winds
to near 50 mph. A few of these thunderstorms will shift eastward
into the I-25 corridor by late afternoon. Temperatures look to
remain hot across the lower elevations, with upper 80s and lower
90s, while the San Luis Valley see highs in the 70s and lower
80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 314 AM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Upper trough anticipated to progress across the region at the
start of the period, lifting to the northeast on Friday with
some weak height rises aloft noted. This along with continued
drying across the region should limit precip development over
southern Colorado for the 4th. If anything develops it looks to
be rather isolated over the higher terrain and even more
isolated over the eastern plains. In this setup, should see
700mb temps rise, especially with deeper westerlies in place.
Did increase high temps slightly on Friday, though still staying
near or slightly above normal for this time of the year. By
Saturday, no real big changes anticipated as another day of
upper ridging and drying, bringing similar temps with limited
precip development.

By late in the weekend into early next week, should see ridge
flatten some and looking to usher in more energetic flow along
with some increased moisture. In this setup, will see similar
normal to slightly above normal temperatures persist. This looks
to bring some uptick in precip development to the area Sunday
and Monday. However, moving into the middle part of next week,
ridge looks to really establish itself over the western CONUS.
This setup would support additional warming along with a return
to more afternoon isolated to scattered precip development
during this time frame.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1141 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025

KCOS and KPUB: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.
Light winds overnight will increase through tomorrow afternoon as
diurnal mixing develops. Mid to high level clouds will also
increase through late morning and persist through the remainder
of the TAF period. There is potential for showers and thunderstorms
to impact both TAF sites tomorrow afternoon, however, confidence
in occurrence is low, less than 20 percent, at this time. If a
thunderstorm were to impact a TAF site, frequent lightning,
outflow winds of 40-50 mph, small hail, and periods of heavy
rain would be the primary concerns.

KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.
Light winds overnight will increase through tomorrow afternoon as
diurnal mixing develops. Mid to high level clouds will also increase
through late morning and persist through the remainder of the
TAF period. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
along the higher terrain tomorrow and push across the San Luis
Valley during the afternoon hours. These showers and thunderstorms
may directly impact the TAF site, with frequent lightning,
outflow winds of 40-50 mph, small hail, and periods of heavy
rain the primary hazards with any thunderstorms.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...RODRIGUEZ
AVIATION...WFO Pueblo