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773
FXUS65 KPUB 262330
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
530 PM MDT Wed Jul 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 348 PM MDT Wed Jul 26 2017

...Monsoonal moisture continues to support locally heavy rain and
the potential for flash flooding tonight...

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis has upper high
across the Southern High Plains with weak to moderate westerly aloft
across the region at this time, as minor embedded waves continue to
ride the northern periphery of the ridge across the Northern Great
Basin and Northern Rockies at this time. 12Z soundings at GJT (1.36
inches) and DEN (1.11 inches) had PWATS at 150 to 200 percent of
normal across the region, with current water vapor imagery
indicating minor embedded disturbances across northwestern Colorado
and northern Central New Mexico at this time. With the ample
moisture in place, SPC meso analysis is indicating CAPES of 1500-
2000 j/kg across the area at this time.

Tonight and tomorrow...Latest high rest models continue to support
minor embedded waves moving across the area this afternoon and
evening, with scattered to numerous showers and storms developing
across the higher terrain through the evening, with storms spreading
east across the immediate adjacent plains and congealing into and
MCS across the far southeast plains overnight, with THETA E ridge in
place.

With the ample moisture in place, all storms will have the potential
for locally heavy rainfall and will continue to keep the Flash Flood
watch in place across the eastern mountains and plains through the
early morning hours, despite slightly more westerly steering flow
keeping storms moving a tad faster than previous days. The slightly
faster steering flow, however, is supporting bulk shear values on in
the 20 to 25kt range, leading to the potential for a few stronger
and rotating storms through the evening, capable of producing hail
up to the size of quarters and gusty outflow winds.

With the moist upslope flow, will likely see stratus developing
across the eastern plains later tonight and persist through the mid
morning hours of Thursday. This will likely keep much of eastern
Colorado too stable to support convection tomorrow. With that said,
latest models continue to keep best chances of storms over the
higher terrain west of the I-25 corridor tomorrow afternoon and
evening, and have tailored to forecast to follow suite.
 Storms tomorrow will continue to have ample moisture to work
with, keeping locally heavy rain and the potential for Flash
Flooding in the forecast. May need another Flash Flood Watch for
area burn scars tomorrow afternoon, however, will see how
tonight`s rain plays out and let the next shift evaluate the need
for one. Temperatures to remain below seasonal averages tomorrow, with
highs generally in the 70s and 80s across the plains and mainly
50s and 60s across the higher terrain.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 348 PM MDT Wed Jul 26 2017

No big changes to current forecast as upper ridge looks to be
quasi- stationary across the southwest and south central US,
keeping the moisture rich monsoon plume over the central Rockies
through the rest of this week. This means widespread daily showers
and storms, first developing across the higher terrain and then
spreading into the adjacent high valleys and eastern plains.
Models have rain chances continuing into and through the overnight
as well. With the relatively weak flow aloft, and probable
development of MCS`s, areas of heavy rain totals and potential
flash flooding will occur, especially across urban areas and burn
scars. There may be a few marginally severe storms during this
time period, and temperatures will be below seasonal norms, with
abundant cloud cover.

Through the weekend and early next week, trough across the eastern
US will push the upper ridge farther west.  Scattered afternoon and
evening showers and storms will be the rule, and be more
concentrated across the higher terrain and adjacent locations.
Storms would be enhanced, at times, with difficult to time
shortwaves rippling through the flow. There will still be the
potential for locally heavy rain totals and flash flooding, again
primarily across urban areas and burn scars. Temperatures will
remain below seasonal norms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 523 PM MDT Wed Jul 26 2017

Thunderstorms will continue to impact much of southeast and south
central Colorado through 27/04Z. Later tonight, lingering showers
could persist through 27/06Z. Moist, upslope flow will result in
MVR and IFR ceilings at KCOS and KPUB. Stable airmass may limit
the extent of convection in the afternoon Thursday, but can`t rule
out a few thunderstorms. Thunderstorms are more likely in the San
Luis Valley Thursday afternoon impacting the KALS airport.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 3 AM MDT Thursday for COZ072>089-093>099.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...STARK