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000
FXUS65 KPUB 051800
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1100 AM MST THU DEC 5 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 AM MST THU DEC 5 2013

LOADED CURRENT OBSERVATIONS INTO FRONT END OF GRIDS. ALSO RAISED
POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS MORNING OVER THE PLAINS IN ANTICIPATION OF
APPROACHING RADAR RETURNS EXPANDING RAPIDLY NORTHWARD FROM NEW
MEXICO. LW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MST THU DEC 5 2013

...ARCTIC COLD TO CONTINUE WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW MAINLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50...

ARCTIC AIR IS ENTRENCHED.  CURRENT TEMPS ARE GENERALLY 5 ABOVE TO 5
BELOW ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  MOUNTAIN AND HIGH VALLEY TEMPS
RANGE FROM 0 TO 20 BELOW.  ONE OF THE COLDER READINGS I`VE SEE SO
FAR THIS MORNING IS 18 BELOW IN LEADVILLE.  ONE OF THE WARMER
READINGS IS 9 ABOVE IN SPRINGFIELD.  WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE REGION
CURRENTLY RANGE FROM ABOUT 5 ABOVE TO 20 BELOW...ALTHOUGH I HAVE
SEEN A BRIEF 23 BELOW ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY AND A BRIEF 39 BELOW AT
LEADVILLE.  WINDS ARE LIGHT ENOUGH ACROSS THE AREA THAT WIND CHILL
HIGHLIGHTS ARE NOT NECESSARY.  HOWEVER...THERE COULD STILL BE A
BRIEF GUST OF WIND TO ABOUT 10 MPH KICKING DOWN THE WIND CHILL TO
UNCOMFORTABLE LEVELS MOMENTARILY.

TODAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL GRAZE THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COLORADO.
THE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING UP FROM NEW MEXICO AT THE PRESENT TIME AND
IS JUST STARTING TO SPREAD A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE RATON PASS AREA ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.  AS THE DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...IT WILL SPREAD
SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO...BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...AND ESPECIALLY
ACROSS LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES.  THESE AREAS COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED PRODUCING
SPOTTY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF A HALF INCH OR LESS.  THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THESE SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS.  FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS FARTHER WEST...NOT MUCH
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY.

TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL BE WAY BELOW AVERAGE...WITH MOST
AREAS SEEING HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OR TEENS.  AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL
ACTUALLY BE ONE OF THE WARMER AREAS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S.
THE HIGH MOUNTAIN PEAKS ABOVE TIMBERLINE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WILL BE
SOME OF THE COLDER LOCATIONS WITH HIGHS REMAINING BELOW ZERO.

REMEMBER TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS AGAINST THE COLD.  BRING YOUR PETS
INDOORS.  DRESS IN MULTIPLE LAYERS OF WARM CLOTHING.  MAKE SURE YOUR
CELL PHONE IS CHARGED AND WITH YOU IN THE EVENT OF CAR PROBLEMS.  IF
YOU HAVE TO COMMUTE THIS MORNING...LEAVE EARLY AND TRAVEL SLOWLY.
YOUR VEHICLE MAY NEED A LITTLE EXTRA ATTENTION TO GET STARTED AND
THE ROADS ARE DEFINITELY SLICK IN SPOTS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MST THU DEC 5 2013

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH CONTINUED COLD
AND PERIODS OF SNOW THROUGH MONDAY...AND DRIER WARMER CONDITIONS
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AND INTRUSIONS OF
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO THROUGH MONDAY.
WEAK ENERGY AROUND THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SPITTING OUT LIGHT
SNOWFALL OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY MORNING...SO ADDED A FEW FLURRIES
WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE FOR THE PLAINS.

A MUCH STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND ACROSS COLORADO SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT SNOW TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SPREAD EAST INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHEASTERLY WHICH MAY SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SNOW FLURRIES BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WEAK NORTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE SHOULD HELP BRING A ROUND OF SNOWFALL TO THE PLAINS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS THIS
WEEKEND WILL FALL OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH AROUND A FOOT
POSSIBLE OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE...AND APPROACHING 8 INCHES FOR
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. OVER THE PLAINS...AN INCH OR TWO OF LIGHT
FLUFF WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BITTERLY COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS AT OR BELOW
ZERO DEGREES.

EXPECT SNOW TO COME TO AN END SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. NORTHERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER SYSTEM WILL KEEP COLD AIR IN PLACE
WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN TOPPING OUT IN THE TEENS.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WORK WEEK...WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDING WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CONUS WITH BROAD
NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS
INDICATING WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW ON TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE
MIXING AND A QUICK WARM UP. HIGHS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE 40S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 50S FOR THE
PLAINS. MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1059 AM MST THU DEC 5 2013

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION INTO
TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT STILL APPEARS THAT THIS UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SNOW TO MAINLY AREAS
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 INTO THIS EVENING. MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AS
WELL AS LOCAL IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS...ESPECIALLY AT KCOS AND KPUB AT TIMES.
AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE KALS TAF SITE WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$