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000
FXUS65 KPUB 152115
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
315 PM MDT SAT MAR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)

CURRENTLY...

IT IS WINDY OVER MOST OF THE REGION WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST OVER
THE PLAINS. WINDS WERE GENERALLY GUSTING IN THE 30-L40 KNOT RANGE.
LOTS OF VIRGA WAS NOTED OVER THE REGION AND THIS LIKELY ADDING TO
THE WINDS.

REST OF TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING...

IT WILL REMAIN WINDY OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN
PLAINS. EXPECT WINDS GUSTING IN THE 30S TO MID 40S RANGE UNTIL EARLY
TO MID EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PICK UP THE DUST ON THE
PLAINS...AND THE BLOWING DUST ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 8
PM.2ND AREA OF CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE PIKES PEAK/PALMER DVD REGION...WET MTNS AND SANGRE
DE CRISTO MTNS. HI RES GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INDICATE THESE AREAS MAY
SEE A QUICK 2-3" OF SNOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT...

WINDS WILL RELAX ACROSS REGION AS SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTH OUT OF THE
REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 20S OVER THE PLAINS WITH
TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS MTNS/VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...

A VERY NICE DAY IS IN STORE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION WITH A FEW NORTHERLY GUSTS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS DURING
THE DAY. MAX TEMPS ON THE PLAINS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND
60....WITH 30S AND 40S MTNS AND 50S VALLEYS.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)

TEMPERATURES...POPS AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FROM MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES AND POPS DURING THE
LONGER TERM APPEAR TO BE PRIMARY METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THE DRY NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW OF SUNDAY EVENING
GIVES WAY TO ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW FROM MONDAY INTO
NEXT SATURDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...VARYING DEGREES OF EASTERN COLORADO LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING IS ANTICIPATED FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING
AND THEN AGAIN FROM LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

IN ADDITION...AN UPPER DISTRUBANCE IS PROJECTED TO IMPACT PRIMARILY
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

SO FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...ANTICIPATE THAT NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MANY EASTERN
LOCATIONS OF OF THE CWFA FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING
DUE TO GUSTY WINDS...PROJECTED LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES AND EXISTING DRY CONDITIONS OVER MANY AREAS.

IF METEOROLOGICAL TRENDS CONTINUE...THEN FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
MAY BECOME NECESSARY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT FROM LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. WFO PUEBLO WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

ALSO...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WILL BE
CAPABLE OF GENERATING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN AND ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FROM LATER MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL BE CAPABLE OF RECEIVING BETWEEN ONE AND
FIVE INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AND WILL DEPICT THIS IN
IMPENDING GRIDS AND ZONES. OTHERWISE...MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT SHOULD EXPERIENCE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE
LONGER TERM.

STRONGEST GRADIENT WINDS OF THE LONGER TERM(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
NEXT SATURDAY) SHOULD BE EXPERIENCED FROM LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...WHILE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED
MONDAY WITH COOLEST READINGS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

GUSTY WINDS FROM THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TO MID EVENING
BEFORE DECREASING. SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD AFFECT KCOS FROM 00Z TO
ABOUT 03Z. OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS AT KCOS...KPUB AND
KALS. GUSTY WINDS OVER THE PLAINS WILL RESTRICT VISIBILITY DUE TO
BLOWING DUST.

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ089-
093>099.

&&

$$