Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 042100
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
300 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER CO HAS BROUGHT WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA
TODAY WITH READINGS APPROACHING 80 ACROSS THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY.  SOME CU IS FORMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN SATELLITE VIS
PICS...AND HIGH RES SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. GIVEN CU FIELD LOOKS A LITTLE MORE RESPECTABLE TODAY VS
YESTERDAY...WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW END ISOLATED POPS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH 02Z.

UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD ON THURSDAY AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM EVEN FURTHER WITH HIGHS INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE
PLAINS...70S VALLEYS...AND 50S/60S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.  THE UPPER LOW
OFF THE WEST COAST APPROACHES CENTRAL CA COAST LINE BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME MARGINAL MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF
THE AREA SUGGESTS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THOUGH MODELS STILL LOOK A LITTLE OVERDONE IN
COVERAGE.  WILL MAINTAIN PRIMARILY ISOLATED POPS FOR THE MOUNTAIN
AREAS. -KT

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

...MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...

THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT OF AN
UPPER LOW CARVING OUT ACROSS THE DESERT SW FRIDAY AND SLOWLY LIFTING
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH ONE EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO ON FRIDAY AND ANOTHER
LIFTING OUT ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO ON SATURDAY. ANY SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING...THOUGH WILL KEEP SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE CONTDVD
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SOME EMBEDDED MOISTURE WITHIN THE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. SHOULD SEE INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON
FRIDAY AND ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO ON
SATURDAY. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH HIGH REACHING THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S. THIS
WILL ALSO INCREASE FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH THE RECENT
ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION HAS ALLOWED FOR GREEN UP TO START AND IS
KEEPING FUELS NON CRITICAL AT THIS TIME.

ON SATURDAY...MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF A SFC LOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE SE PLAINS WITH THE MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD
OF THE SECOND SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SUPPORTS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WITHIN BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS THROUGH THE PALMER DVD
AND INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. MAIN SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO BE LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS...THOUGH THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND GENERATED INSTABILITY REMAINS IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME. WITH MORE
CLOUDS AND SOME COOLING ALOFT...HIGHS ON SATURDAY LOOK TO BE SOME 5
TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN FRIDAY.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE UPPER
LOW EJECTING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY AND INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTH PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. RELATIVELY COOL NORTHWEST FLOW
PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS KEEPING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES WITH LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN
WINDS UNDER 12 KTS. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...KT



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