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000
FXUS65 KPUB 191011
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
411 AM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013

...COOLING TREND CONTINUES...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
GENERALLY WEAK WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN
UPPER LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH HANGING BACK ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AT THIS TIME. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING AN EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS HELPING TO FUEL
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND NORTHWESTERN KANSAS AT
THIS TIME.

TODAY...BROAD UPPER TROUGH TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA AS NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT INTO THE DAKOTAS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STEEP
LAPSE RATES IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AND ALONG WITH LATE SPRING
SUNSHINE...WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
PASSING WAVE SENDS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
WHICH ALSO HELPS TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE MAINLY HIGH BASED STORMS WITH
CONTINUED INVERTED V PROFILES. MOISTURE PROFILES...HOWEVER...ARE A
LITTLE DEEPER THAN YESTERDAY...WITH LCLS BETWEEN H65 AND H6...WHICH
SUPPORTS SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MAKING IT TO THE
GROUND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH COOLING ALOFT AS
WELL AS AT THE SFC WITH PASSING COLD FRONT...HIGHS TODAY WILL FOLLOW
THE TREND WITH MAINLY 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS...50S AND 60S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ONLY 30S AT MT TOPS. WITH THAT
SAID...COULD SEE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A COUPLE OF INCHES ON THE
HIGHER PEAKS.

TONIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE GENERALLY WEAK WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
ROTATING AROUND UPPER MIDWEST LOW ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING AND INTO
NORTHWESTERN COLORADO BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
ACROSS THE AREA THE EARLY EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING WITH POPS
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
INCREASING UVV AHEAD WESTERN WYOMING WAVE. WITH A COOL AIR MASS IN
PLACE AND PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE LATE EVENING...COULD
SEE SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE HIGH MT VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013

ON MONDAY AN UPR LOW WL BE CENTERED OVR SD WITH AN UPR TROF
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO ERN CO. NW FLOW AND GOOD MSTR INTO THE
CENTRAL MTS AND OVR THE PIKES PEAK AND TELLER COUNTY AREA...SHOULD LEAD
TO GOOD CHANCES FOR PCPN IN THOSE LOCATIONS THRU THE DAY. IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS A SHRTWV TROF IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY
SOUTHWARD OVR THE AREA IN THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE TROF AXIS...AND
IS EXPECTED TO AID IN KICKING OFF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPS ON MON ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BELOW NORMAL. BY LATE MON NIGHT MOST OF THE PCPN SHOULD END BUT
MOIST NW FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL
MTS...AND POSSIBLY TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50. TEMPS WL BE COLD ENOUGH AT THE HIGH ELEVATIONS FOR
SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH SEVERAL INCHES LIKELY OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND OVER PIKES PEAK.

THE UPR LOW WL BE VERY SLOW MOVING AND ON TUE IS EXPECTED TO BE
CENTERED OVR ERN SD...WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVR UT AND
PUSHES INTO WRN CO. SOME LINGERING MSTR AND INSTABILITY...ALONG
WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO WRN CO...SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO MAYBE SCT PCPN MAINLY OVR THE MTN
AREAS. TEMPS TUE SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER AND SHOULD BE AROUND
AVERAGE. THE UPR DISTURBANCE IS THEN EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY
EASTWARD ACRS CO THU NIGHT...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME ISOLD PCPN TO
THE EASTERN PLAINS AS WELL.

ON WED THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES ACRS CO...BUT IN THE AFTERNOON A
WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE OVR THE AREA AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
MSTR FOR A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY OVR THE HYR TRRN.

THU AND FRI AN UPR LOW IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED OVR THE PAC
NW...CAUSING INCREASED SW FLOW ALOFT OVR THE FORECAST AREA. OVR
THE SERN PLAINS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WL BRING LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL MSTR. THE GFS IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL
FOR RELATIVELY HIGH CAPE VALUES AND A SFC BOUNDARY ACRS THE SERN
PLAINS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH POSSIBLY SOME STRONG TSTMS.
ON SAT AN UPR TROF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVR THE WRN STATES AND
THE MODELS ARE INDICATING AN EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE LOW LEVEL MSTR
AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVR THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEAK
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS 10-20KTS TO
KCOS AND KPUB LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SCATTERED HIGH BASED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE
THIS MORNING WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. DRY SUB CLOUD LAYERS WILL AGAIN SUPPORT MAINLY
VIRGA ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...MW