Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 210519

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1119 PM MDT WED JUL 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 236 PM MDT Wed Jul 20 2016

Tonight the upper level ridge wl be centered over the south central
KS border, and wl shift a little westward on Thu. This wl keep the
stream of monsoon mstr ovr western CO tonight and Thu. This evening,
scattered showers/tstms are expected mainly from around the I-25
corridor area and westward, with the possibility of some isold
storms over the southeast plains. Thursday should be similar to
today, with showers/tstms developing ovr some of the hyr trrn areas
by late morning, and then increasing in coverage and spreading to
the nearby lower elevations thru the afternoon. High temps on Thu
should generally be around average in the high valleys with reading
in the 80s, and above average temps acrs the sern plains, with
readings in the 90`s to lower 100`s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 236 PM MDT Wed Jul 20 2016

An active weather pattern will continue through the weekend into
early next week along with hot afternoon high temperatures.

Thursday night and Friday...high pressure over the central plains
will force monsoonal moisture northward out of the desert
southwest. Expect ongoing showers and thunderstorms over the
mountains, east into the I-25 corridor Thursday evening. This
activity is forecast to shift eastward across the plains during
the overnight hours and dissipate as it moves into Kansas by
Friday morning.

The upper level pattern will continue on Friday with high pressure
over the central plains and monsoonal moisture lifting northward
out of the desert southwest. An upper level shortwave trough is
forecast to move out of the Pacific Northwest and into the
Northern Rockies by Friday afternoon forcing flow aloft across
Colorado southwesterly. Expect showers and thunderstorms to fire
over the mountains by early afternoon, and with increased
southwesterly steering flows aloft, should help transition showers
and thunderstorms east across the plains Friday night. Locally
heavy rainfall along with small hail will be possible. Shower and
thunderstorm activity will shift east during the overnight hours
and clear into Kansas by Saturday morning.

Saturday into Monday...the upper shortwave passing to the north
will flatten the upper level ridge over the desert southwest. This
will transition the region to zonal westerly upper level flow with
embedded energy into Monday. At the surface, a cold front will
back across the plains on Saturday morning with moist easterly
upslope flow by Saturday afternoon. Initial showers and
thunderstorms will develop over the mountains during the
afternoon, and spread east in the evening. Widespread locally
heavy rainfall is likely, especially for the eastern mountains
into the I-25 corridor given the moist upslope flow.

Not much change is expected as we move into Sunday. Low level
upslope flow with abundant moisture will combine with the embedded
energy in westerly flow aloft to bring another round of showers
and thunderstorms to the area, initially over the mountains, and
spreading east during the evening. The eastern mountains and
adjacent plains will be the favored areas to see locally heavy

By Monday, the upper level high over the desert southwest is
forecast to begin building northward forcing the moisture plume
from the southwest to the west. Southern Colorado will likely see
one last day of decent shower and thunderstorm activity on Monday.

There will be the possibility of strong to severe thunderstorms
Saturday and Sunday given the expected shear and instability
across the region. Hail, locally heavy rainfall and gusty outflow
winds will all be possible. Flash flooding concerns will also be
elevated on burn scars over the weekend. Temperatures will be a
bit cooler with lower to mid 90s.

Tuesday into Wednesday...high pressure will build across the Great
Basin into the intermountain west. The monsoonal moisture tap will
be forced west of Colorado with drier northerly flow setting up by
Tuesday. We will likely see at least diurnally driven convection
over the mountains with drier conditions expected across the
plains. Warm conditions will continue with 90s over the lower
elevations.  Mozley


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1119 PM MDT Wed Jul 20 2016

Mainly VFR conditions expected at COS, PUB and ALS over the next
24 hours. Very similiar weather as the past few day can be expected
across the area, as monsoonal moisture continues to move across
the state within generally weak southwest flow aloft. Storms to
develop across the higher terrain by the early afternoon and
spread east across the adjacent plains through the late afternoon
and evening. If storms move across the terminals, brief MVFR to
local IFR conditions will be possible, with lightning, heavy rain
and gusty winds the main threats.


.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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