Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 212303

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
403 PM MST Wed Feb 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 358 PM MST Wed Feb 21 2018

An upper level trof will move into UT and AZ tonight, and ahead of
this system snow will increase along the Continental Divide. Several
inches of snow will fall over the San Juan mtns where favorable
orographics are expected.  There currently is a Winter Wx Advisory
in effect for this area, and will leave that as is.  Some snow will
also spread into the eastern mtns tonight, but accumulations are
expected to be light.  Areas of the San Luis Valley will probably
see some light snow as well along with areas of fog.  This afternoon
warm overrunning over the far southeast areas has kept a lot of
cloud cover over that area, along with some light flurries, and it
looks like this will continue.  The HRRR and NAM show the potential
for low stratus developing later tonight along the I-25 corridor,
mainly from around Walsenburg and northward, and then these clouds
hang around thru at least midmorning Thu,.  Theses areas could see
some light snow tonight thru Thu morning.

On Thu, the disturbance moves northeastward over the state.  It
looks like by afternoon, snow will still be found over some of the
mtn areas, but it should be lighter than during the morning hours,
with only light additional accumulations possible.  Also, by
afternoon it looks like low clouds over portions of the plains
should dissipate and dry conditions are expected in the afternoon.
Temps on Thu will still be below average, with mostly in the 30s
over El Paso county and in the 40s over the rest of the plains, and
the high valleys should see mainly 30s for highs.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 358 PM MST Wed Feb 21 2018

The weather pattern remains active through much of the long-term
forecast period.

As the previously mentioned upper disturbance lifts north and east
out of Colorado Thursday evening, snow will become light and
scattered/isolated across the continental divide into Friday
morning. By Friday afternoon, the next upper-level trough digging
into the four corners region will cause an uptick in snow coverage
and intensity across the continental divide through late Friday
night. Expect another 3-5 inches with locally higher amounts. Strong
southwest flow over the state and deep mixing will allow for gusty
surface winds and low RH values, leading to heightened fire danger
across the plains Friday afternoon. However, RH values are not
expected to reach Red Flag criteria. High temperatures on Friday
will range from the mid 40s to mid 50s across the plains.

As the upper trough advances east across the state late Friday,
surface low pressure will deepen in western Kansas, sending a cold
front down the eastern Colorado plains early Saturday. Gusty
north/northwest winds are forecast along and behind the cold front,
lasting most of Saturday. Expect only isolated snow showers in the
northern portions of the southeast Colorado plains late Friday into
early Saturday. Precip chances will become isolated across the
mountains Saturday. High temps on Saturday will only be slightly
cooler, reaching the mid 40s across the plains.

The next upper disturbance will move across the state quickly on
Sunday, bringing brief snow chances to the continental divide during
the first half of the day. The plains will remain dry with highs
again in the mid 40s. Dry weather will dominate southern Colorado
Monday and Tuesday under relatively undisturbed
westerly/southwesterly flow. However, gusty winds and low RH values
will bring the potential for heightened fire danger both days.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 358 PM MST Wed Feb 21 2018

Low stratus is expected to increase at KCOS this evening, with
conditions becoming MVFR or IFR, along with the potential for some
light snow thru much of Thu morning.  Conditions are expected to
become VFR for Thu afternoon.

VFR conditions are expected at KPUB thru this evening at KPUB, but
clouds will increase tonight and there is the potential for low
stratus to develop with MVFR and maybe brief IFR conditions into Thu
morning.  VFR conditions are expected by late Thu morning.

VFR conditions are expected at KALS until early Thu morning, when
some snow showers and lower clouds are expected to be in the area.
MVFR or even IFR conditions will then be possible at KALS in the
morning hours, especially if snow does develop. By late morning
conditions are expected to improve.  KALS has had some gusty winds
this afternoon which should decrease early this evening.  Thu
afternoon KALS is expected to see gusty southwest winds develop


Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM MST
Thursday for COZ068.



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