Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 112110
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
310 PM MDT Wed Oct 11 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 256 PM MDT Wed Oct 11 2017

Currently...Warm fall day in progress across the region, with
enough downslope wind to bump temps up to near 80f across the
Arkansas Valley from Pueblo east to La Junta. Air mass has dried
considerably under wly flow, with model dewpoints and surface temps
running too low at many spots, especially along and east of the
mountains.

Tonight and Thursday...Broad swly flow aloft will continue across
the area, with deepening lee trough over the plains. Should be
enough mixing to keep min temps on the mild side overnight, and wly
downslope flow on Wed will boost max temps to well above seasonal
averages at most locations. Cold front will drop into nrn CO Wed
afternoon, though boundary will remain north of the Palmer Divide
until evening and thus no impact on srn CO wx during the day.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 256 PM MDT Wed Oct 11 2017

An upper-level trough over the western US will continue to bring
dry, southwest flow to southern Colorado Thursday night through
Friday night. An east-moving lee surface low will drive a dry cold
front down the plains early Friday morning, leading to lower, closer
to normal temperatures Friday and Saturday. With the western trough
amplifying and beginning to swing towards Colorado Friday afternoon,
winds will increase in the San Luis Valley and combine with low RH
to create a period of near critical fire weather conditions.  The
approaching upper energy and sharpening near-stationary surface
boundary extending from northeast New Mexico into the Great Lakes
region will bring a very low chance of rain showers to the far
southeast corner of the state early Saturday morning. Temperatures
will remain near normal on Saturday, with near critical fire weather
conditions again developing in the San Luis Valley during the
afternoon hours.

As the upper trough swings over Colorado Saturday evening, a cold
front will drive south through the plains. Model guidance is not
quite yet in agreement on the timing of the front or on whether it
will bring with it any precip. Will use a model blend for timing,
and given strong forcing and marginal moisture, will keep
isolated rain shower chances over the plains and southeast
mountains Saturday night with patchy snow showers over the highest
elevations. Behind the cold front, temperatures on Sunday will
run 10-15 degrees cooler than on Saturday.

High pressure will build over the southwest US Sunday night
through Wednesday leading to dry conditions and a gradual return
to normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 256 PM MDT Wed Oct 11 2017

VFR at all taf sites the next 24 hrs, with diurnal wind cycle
expected.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...LINE
AVIATION...PETERSEN



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