Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 291729

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1029 AM MST Tue Nov 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 347 AM MST Tue Nov 29 2016


Large broad trough was covering most of the western 2/3rds of the
country this morning. Main closed circulation was located over the
upper northern plains while a trailing shortwave was over western
Colorado. This trailing short wave was bringing some light snow to
the region along the contdvd.

Temps at 3 am were quite cold...with temps in the positive and
negative single digits at mtn top and single digits and teens in the
valleys. temps on the plains were mainly in the 20s.


Shortwave will move across the remainder of the region. This will
bring generally light snow showers to mainly the contdvd region,
although the southern San Luis valley and the southern Sangre de
Cristos may see some snow showers. The remainder of the region
should remain dry, although quite a bit of cloudiness and a stray
rain/snow shower will be possible. Northwest  surface winds will
gradually ramp up, mainly over the plains, as the day progresses.
Winds could get quite breezy over the far eastern plains (especially
Kiowa county), where 20 to 30 mph with some gusts to 40 mph will be
possible. Max temps today will be cool, with 30s in N El Paso county
and 40s over the rest of the plains. Temps will reach to about 30F
in the valleys and single digits and teens will prevail in the mtns.


Any snow showers that occur will mainly occur along the nw slopes of
the central mtns, mainly early this evening. Skies will generally
clear out, and winds will slowly decrease. It will be cold tonight
with lows in the teens across most of the plains with a few L20s
over the far eastern plains. temps will be in the negative and
positive single digits in the valleys and mtns.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 347 AM MST Tue Nov 29 2016

Good forecast agreement through the extended period with low
ensemble spreads and high forecast confidence.

Wednesday...a large upper level low over the Great Lakes is
forecast to lift northeast with broad northerly flow aloft
transitioning northwesterly. This will allow for dry conditions to
prevail across southern Colorado Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Temperatures will be cool with 40s for highs.

Thursday through Friday...the next upper level storm system is
forecast to drop south out of the Northern Rockies, across Utah
and into northern Mexico by the weekend. Generally, moisture is
forecast to remain west of Colorado, with isolated to scattered
showers along and west of the Continental Divide. A cold front on
Friday may bring a few showers to the Palmer Divide, but the
Plains look to remain dry at this time. A few inches of snow are
possible along the Continental Divide, especially the Central
Mountains. Expect 40s for highs on Thursday, while most of the
area sees 30s on Friday.

Saturday into Sunday...the upper level low will continue south
into Mexico with broad northwesterly flow expected over Colorado.
Generally dry conditions will prevail through the weekend, with
just a few orographically induced snow showers forecast over the
Central Mountains. Temperatures will warm into the upper 40s by

Monday...the next upper level storm will strengthen over the Great
Basin early next. This will bring moist southwesterly flow to the
region with much better chances for accumulating snowfall for the
Continental Divide.  Mozley


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1024 AM MST Tue Nov 29 2016

Gusty northwest winds will continue across the southeast plains
with winds expected to pick up at KCOS and KPUB by 19-20Z. Gusts
to 20-25 kts will be possible at both KCOS and KPUB through the
afternoon before winds decrease. Mid level clouds will increase
over KCOS and KPUB this afternoon...though any chance of flurries
appears to stay over the mountains and across NE CO. Winds will
become light overnight before switching out of the west towards
Wed AM. ALS will see light winds and dry conditions today. Mtn
areas will see scattered MVFR to IFR conditions in
-SHSN...particularly along the Continental Divide. -KT




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