Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 232204
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
404 PM MDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 247 PM MDT Thu Mar 23 2017

...Intense Storm to Move through Southern Colorado Tonight and
Friday...

Still a slight chance for strong to sever storms over the far
southeast corner early this evening.  Watching that.  Also, Red Flag
Warning continues plains through the afternoon.

Blizzard expected for northern El Paso County late tonight into
Friday morning with a period of heavy, blowing snow and near zero
visibilities.  Winter Storm conditions for Teller County for the
same period with a little bit less wind due to terrain blockage but
still good amounts of snow.  Snow and Blowing Snow Advisories
elsewhere in the mountains and also along the southern I-25 corridor
across Huerfano and Las Animas Counties for fairly light snow
accumulations but some periods of blowing snow and poor visibilities
for a spell late tonight and early Friday.  High Valleys, including
the San Luis Valley, could also see a little bet of wet snow
overnight but accumulations should be pretty light. Elsewhere across
the plains, below about 6000 feet, mostly just a good rain but also
some brief wet snow possible late tonight and early Friday.
Everything shifts east pretty quickly during the afternoon, with
rain possibly mixed with wet snow at times, lingering into the mid
afternoon hours over the far eastern plains.

Other major weather happening late tonight and tomorrow will be the
wind across the plains.  Very strong sustained winds and gusts
expected to develop in the wake of a strong cold front moving south
late tonight and Friday.  Widespread 40 mph winds gusting over 65
mph possible just about everywhere over the east.  Be prepared.

All weather hazards should be winding down by the time Friday
evening rolls around. That`s it for the discussion today. Too many
other products to worry about.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 247 PM MDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Models in decent agreement with an active weather pattern through
the extended period. There is some disagreement in the finer
details of storm tracks, but wet weather will be expected across
Southern Colorado.

Friday night through Saturday...the large upper level system over
the region will continue to move east into the Missouri Valley
with high pressure over Utah spreading into Colorado. Gusty winds
will subside Friday evening as the gradient eases across the
Plains. Overnight lows will fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s
across the Plains, so protective measures may be needed for
plants. High pressure aloft will transit the region on Saturday
and move into the Central Plains by the afternoon. Highs will warm
into the 60s over the lower elevation. The next upper level storm
system will begin to move into the Continental Divide by late
afternoon and persist through Saturday night. Snow will be
confined to elevations above 9 kft through Sunday morning.

Sunday...a quick moving shortwave trough is forecast to move
across Colorado on Sunday. A cold front will arrive early in the
day with northerly winds developing across the Plains. Models in
good agreement with an band of precipitation dropping south off
the Palmer Divide and down the I-25 corridor during the morning
and early afternoon. At this time, snow looks to remain confined
to elevations above 7 kft, with rain expected in the lower
elevations. This quick moving system will transition east into the
Central Plains by Sunday night with dry conditions by Monday
morning as the next upper ridge moves out of Utah.

Monday...the next upper ridge will move across Colorado on Monday
with dry conditions expected to prevail. Afternoon highs will rise
into the lower 60s across the Plains.

Tuesday through Thursday...the next upper level storm system is
forecast to dig down the west coast into the Desert Southwest mid
week. Prolonged moist southerly flow along with several embedded
disturbances will lead to periods of higher elevation snowfall and
lower elevation rain through this time frame. The GFS and
ensembles are taking this upper system along the U.S.-Mexican
border while the ECMWF is quite a bit further north. Precipitation
chances will highly depend on how this upper system tracks across
the region.  Mozley

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 247 PM MDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Gusty S-SW winds through the afternoon. Cold front then drops south
through KCOS and KPUB this evening, with strong N winds developing,
and both sites could see some gusts to near 50 kts from 12z into
midday Fri. Should see -SHRA develop at KALS after early this
evening, with a switch to snow this later in the evening and
overnight before precip ends by 12z Fri. -SHRA will fill in behind
the cold front at KPUB and KCOS 03z-06z and rain will likely mix
with or change to snow at KCOS 06z-09z and possibly KPUB for short
spell 09z-15z, though with surface air temps at or slightly above
freezing, accumulations will be slushy and mainly on grassy, non
paved surfaces. Over the mountains, SCT TSRA possible this
afternoon, with numerous -SHRA/-SHSN late afternoon and overnight,
leading to widespread IFR or LIFR conditions after 00z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning from 3 AM to 5 PM MDT Friday for COZ085>089-
093>099.

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ226>237.

Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon MDT Friday
for COZ079-080-085-087-088-094.

Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM MDT Friday for COZ058-060-066-
068.

Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to noon MDT
Friday for COZ072>075.

Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to noon MDT Friday
for COZ081-082.

Blizzard Warning from midnight tonight to noon MDT Friday for
COZ084.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...LW


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