Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 091720
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1120 AM MDT WED APR 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM MDT WED APR 9 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WL BE OVR THE STATE TODAY. INCREASED FLOW
OVR THE AREA TODAY WL RESULT IN BREEZY W TO SW WINDS. THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS SHOULD SEE RH VALUES DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON. THE AREAS THAT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL MEET BOTH THE
HUMIDITY AND WIND CRITERIA FOR A RED FLAG WARNING INCLUDE THE I-25
CORRIDOR...AND FREMONT COUNTY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AREAS AROUND
TRINIDAD MAY NOT MEET THE WIND CRITERIA TODAY...BUT WL STILL LEAVE
THEM IN THE WARNING. PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WL PROBABLY
MEET BOTH THE WINDS AND RH CRITERIA...SO WL ADD THEM TO THE
WARNING. WL ALSO ADD NRN EL PASO COUNTY TO THE RED FLAG
WARNING...AS IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THAT AREA WL MEET THE CRITERIA.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

TONIGHT...AN UPR TROF WL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND WL SEND A
FRONT INTO SERN CO TOWARD MORNING. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE ANY
PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM MDT WED APR 9 2014

...WARM THROUGH SATURDAY...
...SOME RAIN OR SNOW POSSIBLE SUNDAY...

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN A BIT ON THURSDAY...AS A TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE TRAILING END OF THIS
CANADIAN FRONT WILL BRUSH THROUGH NRN CO. THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE
TO SHOW SOME SPOTTY QPF OVER THE ERN MTS AND PLAINS LATE THU
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE...BUT SUSPECT THIS IS OVERDONE. WILL
MAINTAIN SOME LOW OR ISOLD POPS OVER THE HYR TRRN DURING THIS
TIME. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE AS FLOW ALOFT STAYS
MODERATE AND ZONAL. LOOKING AT MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
PLAINS THU THROUGH SATURDAY...AND 50S-60S FOR THE MTS AND HIGH
VALLEYS. IT WILL DEFINITELY BE A STRETCH OF GOOD SPRING WX.
BEST DAY LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS TO ACCOMPANY THE
WARM AIR AS THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY REBUILDS.

SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND LOOKS ON TRACK. PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE EC AND GFS IN BRINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH ON SUNDAY...DRIVEN BY ANOTHER CANADIAN TROUGH AND 1030
HIGH BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL ALSO SEE A SOUTHERN
TRACK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE IN FROM THE DESERT SW...PARTIALLY
PHASING WITH THE NRN SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. THIS COULD ENHANCE PRECIP A
BIT ON SUNDAY...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE NRN COLD FRONT WILL BE THE
MAIN PLAYER. WILL SEE PRECIP START AS RAIN SUNDAY MORNING WITH
SNOW LEVELS STARTING OFF AROUND 7-8K FEET...BUT MODELS ARE
INDICATING PRETTY COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...MINUS 10 AT H7...SO
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOW FOR THE PLAINS BY SUN
AFTERNOON OR EVE. SHOULD NOT SEE TOO MUCH ACCUMULATION THOUGH WITH
A WARM SURFACE AND THE SYSTEM MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE EAST.
BUT AFTER A FEW DAYS OF 70S IT WILL BE A REMINDER THAT WINTER
WEATHER IS NOT DONE YET.

THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS QUICKLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH TO THE
NORTH...AFFECTING MAINLY THE MOUNTAIN AREAS AS WE GET INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF APRIL. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT WED APR 9 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25KT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO EARLY EVENING. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OF
10-20KTS POSSIBLE AT COS AND PUB AFT 12Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ222-224-
226>230.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...MW



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