Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 181008
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
408 AM MDT SUN SEP 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 406 AM MDT Sun Sep 18 2016

...Hot weather Returns...

A broad ridge will expand northward through N TX and NM
today...leading to clear skies and zero POPs through Mon morning and
beyond. Only Forecast challenge will be temps, which should be
a couple degrees higher this afternoon as H7 temps climb to around
13-14 deg C over the Plains. Could see a few spots top 90 degrees
this afternoon. High Valleys will be in the 70s. With clear skies,
dry air, and generally light winds, valleys and lower elevations
will cool down quickly tonight. A few of the higher valleys could
get close to freezing. Rose

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 406 AM MDT Sun Sep 18 2016

Dry weather will likely prevail from the beginning of the long term
period until mid day Tuesday. From late Tuesday into
Wednesday...remnant moisture from TC PAINE may affect the mountain
regions and possibly the plains. Thursday and Friday flow aloft
increases significantly as a strong upper low moves towards the
region. A strong pacific cold front will likely move across the
region sometime late Friday...with drier and cooler wx moving
into the region for the weekend.

Monday...

Dry and hot for this time of the year. Max temps will be in the 90s
across most of the plains with temps near 80 in the valleys. These
temps are about 10F above normal.

Tuesday...

Some moisture from the remnants of TC PAINE will start to move into
the mtns late in the day. Overall however wx across the region will
be similar to Monday with temps still running about 10F above
normal. Showers and isold storms will likely linger throughout the
nighttime hours...especially along the contdvd. Some heavy rain may
occur Tue eve across the contdvd.

Wednesday...

Lingering moisture will continue across the region...especially the
mtns and expect isold/sct activity over the higher trrn. Isold
storms will be possible over the plains...mainly along the Kim-Lamar
corridor. Temps will still be running above normal this day but not
as warm as Mon and Tue.

Thursday and Friday

Flow dramatically increases aloft and expect most if not all of
Thursday will be hot and dry across the fcst area. Although all long
range guidance shows a relatively strong trough affecting the area
late in the week...the GFS is much more aggressive with this system
then the EC guidance. (GFS is deeper and negatively tilted while the
EC is more north with the system and not as deep). both operational
runs of the guidance show the system moving north of the region so I
do not expect widespread upslope precip affecting the region.
However...a strong pacific front will likely move across the fcst
area late Friday or Friday evening.

Depending on the track and intensity of the trough...we may see a
line of stronger convection over the plains late Friday...especially
over the far east plains. The mountains will see convective showers
Friday...especially along the contdvd.

Although a strong frontal passage is certain at the end of the
week...there is still uncertainty on how strong and how fast this
trough will move through. The GFS ensemble mean is slow and farther
south then the operational run. Some ensemble members are also
further south which...if it verifies...could bring a better chance
of needed precip to the region (my confidence on the more southern
track is low).

Weekend...

Cooler and mainly dry. Best chance of precip will be over the
central mtns. Max temps will fall back to climo values. /Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 406 AM MDT Sun Sep 18 2016

Clear skies and VFR conditions expected for the TAF sites next
24-30 hours. Winds will generally be light. Rose

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE



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