Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 271101
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
501 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 459 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

UPDATING TO KEEP POPS OVER THE FAR SERN PLAINS THROUGH MID
MORNING. WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING NWD THROUGH EXTREME SERN
CO IS SPARKING SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/STORMS OVER BACA AND PROWERS
COUNTIES. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY 14-16Z. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

...ANOTHER HOT DAY FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO...

LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS OUR NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO
AZ...ON THE SRN EN OF A STRONG SUMMER TROUGH THAT IS OVER THE INTER-
MTN REGION. THIS WILL MOVE THROUGH CO THIS AFTERNOON. MONSOONAL
PLUME WILL STILL BE OVER THE AREA...BUT SHUNTED SOMEWHAT BY THE
TROUGH TO OUR NW AND THE WEAKENING UPPER HIGH NOW OVER NRN TX AND OK.

EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLD TO SCT STORMS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING
OVER THE CENTRAL MTS...THEN MOVING EWD OVER THE SRN FRONT RANGE AND
ERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. BEST FORCING FROM THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE
E OF OUR AREA BY THIS EVENING...SO MOST OF THE STORM ACTIVITY WILL
DEVELOP RELATIVELY EARLY...THEN DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING. WRLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MIX OUT THE LLVL MOISTURE A BIT...SO
STORMS SHOULD STAY BELOW SVR LIMITS...EXCEPT POSSIBLY CLOSE TO THE
KS BORDER. MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS WILL BE SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW
POTENTIAL.

TEMPS OVER THE PLAINS WILL AGAIN BE QUITE WARM...NR 100 DEGREES FOR
THE HOTTER LOCATIONS E OF I-25. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BE THE FIFTH
CONSECUTIVE DAY OF 100 DEGREE OR GREATER DAY AT KPUB. THE EARLIER
TIMING OF CONVECTION WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

A COLD FRONT WL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA EARLY TUE MORNING ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROUGH MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN TIER. MODEL SOUNDING INDICATE
STABLE CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING IN
THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR AVERAGE BEFORE COOLING DOWN WELL BELOW AVERAGE
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID 70S
ACROSS HIGH VALLEYS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A PLUME OF MONSOON
MOISTURE WL MOVE INTO SRN CO BY TUESDAY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE MONSOON MOISTURE SURGE AIDED BY UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL FIRE OFF A ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF SRN AND SE COLORADO LATE TUESDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS SRN AND SE COLORADO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING AS WEAK DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO MOVE WITHIN THE
MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FAIRLY STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT FOR A RELATIVELY DRY AND WARMER PERIOD
OF WEATHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
RETROGRADES OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS THE RIDGE RETROGRADES
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION FROM WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY. DAILY ROUNDS OF DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN CONFINED TO MAINLY MOUNTAIN AREAS AS SUBSIDENCE ALOFT LIMITS
CONVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN BACK TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS HIGH VALLEY AREAS. -LUKINBEAL

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SOME ISOLD TS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE 20Z TO 02Z TIME FRAME.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT BUT COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES INVOF TS
THIS AFTERNOON. ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...LUKINBEAL/HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE



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