Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 121708
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1008 AM MST Fri Jan 12 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 433 AM MST Fri Jan 12 2018

Currently...an upper level disturbance embedded in northwest aloft
is dropping southeast across Wyoming early this morning.
Observations indicate snow moving into the Central Mountains along
with breezy northwest winds.  Dry conditions have prevailed across
the Plains with temperatures falling into the teens and 20s.  Winds
have increased along the southern lee slopes and temperatures have
risen into the 30s along and west of the southern I-25 corridor.
Observations also indicate occasional gusts to near 40 mph along
the lee slopes of the Rampart Range early this morning.

Today...the upper level disturbance will continue southeast across
the region through late afternoon to early evening.  Snow will
increase over the Central Mountains, down into the La Garita Range
this afternoon.  Snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches are expected,
mainly over the Central Mountains, while an inch or two are possible
over the La Garita Range.  Winds will also be be gusty over the
mountains through this afternoon.  Across the Plains, mixing of
northwesterly flow this morning will allow for temperatures to warm
quickly into the lower to mid 50s over much of the Plains.  Areas
over the far Eastern Plains will stay cooler due to less mixing with
40s for highs.  A cold front is forecast to drop south into the
Eastern Plains by late afternoon with a northerly wind shift.

Tonight...the cold front will shift south of the area by this
evening with gusty north winds decreasing and turning southerly by
Saturday morning.  Precipitation looks to stay north of the area in
northeast Colorado behind the front.  Cold air will filter in
behind the front with temperatures dropping into the 20s and teens
by morning.  Across the mountains, snow will begin to dissipate this
evening, coming to an end around midnight.  Expect dry conditions
into Saturday morning. Mozley

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 433 AM MST Fri Jan 12 2018

Dry northwest flow aloft will be found over the area on Sat and high
temps acrs the southeast plains should be around average, with temps
in the high valleys being several degrees above average.  Sun will
be another dry day acrs southeast and south central CO, and high
temps will be above average acrs all of the area.

On Mon an upper level low will move into the plains states and the
midwest.  This system will send a front into eastern CO late Sun
night and Mon morning, and will push much colder air into the area.
Forecast models are also showing the potential for light pcpn acrs
the sern plains in the morning hours and possibly into the
afternoon.  Model guidance temps are not in good agreement with
highs acrs the sern plains for Mon, but will likely be below average
by several degrees, and may need to be even lower that is currently
in the forecast.  The western portions of the forecast area should
be dry on Mon and temps are still expected to be above average.

Tue an upper level ridge moves over the area and dry weather can be
expected.  Temps acrs eastern areas will be warmer than on Mon, and
the mtns and high valleys will continue to see highs that are above
average.

Wed an upper level trof moves acrs the state but the GFS and ECMWF
do not agree on where this system will track.  The GFS has this
system tracking acrs the northern half of CO on Wed and Wed evening,
with pcpn chances mainly being over the central mtns and in eastern
CO, north of highway 50.  The ECMWF shows an upper low over eastern
UT by Wed evening and then tracking southeastward into north central
NM by Thu morning, which brings pcpn chances to southwest and south
central CO.  So at this time, there is a lot of uncertainty as to
what areas may see pcpn as this system affects portions of the state
on Wed and into early Thu.  Dry weather then returns to the area Thu
afternoon and Thu night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 957 AM MST Fri Jan 12 2018

A cold front is set to makes its way over southern Colorado in the
early afternoon hours. When the cold front passes, expect gusty
north winds for all forecast points. The wind at KALS wind will
become diurnally driven in the afternoon hours. During the
overnight hours, saturation at the low levels may cause lower CIGS
at KCOS and KPUB, with KPUB being the shallowest cloud deck. VFR
conditions should prevail throughout the forecast period for all
forecast points.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ058-
060.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...SKELLY



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