Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 151716
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1116 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1017 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

UPDATED TO MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON THE
LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS. STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOW TO
CREEP WESTWARD THIS MORNING...BUT IT IS SLOWLY MOVING WEST AT THIS
TIME. HAVE A FEELING STRATUS WILL MOVE INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY
NOON AND BANK UP ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. PLAYED WITH TEMPERATURES AS WELL...LOCATIONS OUT
NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER ARE PRETTY SOCKED IN...AND DO NOT THINK WE
WILL SEE MUCH MORE THAN A COUPLE MORE DEGREES TEMPERATURE RISE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOWERED EXPECTED HIGHS THERE WITH LOWER
60S. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED QUICKLY THIS MORNING ALONG AND WEST
OF STRATUS DECK WITH UPPER 60S. EXPECT A FEW MORE DEGREES OF
WARMING BEFORE THE STRATUS FILLS IN WESTWARD...SO WARMED THE
AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. THERE HAS BEEN A
LACK OF ECHOES ON RADAR AND NO OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING
RAINFALL OVER THE PLAINS AT THIS TIME. DO THINK UPGLIDE AND
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTENING MAY LEAD TO A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 521 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH EL PASO COUNTY AS OF 09Z...AND SHOULD
CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THROUGH ALL OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS BY 15Z.  LOW
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS LIKELY TO SEE CLOUDY SKIES DEVELOP BY 15Z-17Z.  THERE COULD
BE A FEW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN EL
PASO COUNTY...AIDED BY UPSLOPE ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE
PALMER...AND THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WHERE MOISTURE IS A LITTLE
DEEPER.  FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR...PRECIP CHANCES DO NOT LOOK ALL THAT
GREAT.  WILL CARRY SOME LOW END ISOLATED POPS FOR MOST OF THE PLAINS
THROUGH THIS MORNING.

MEANWHILE...BUILDING WESTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF CO TODAY.  MODELS HINT AT A WEAK
DISTURBANCE BACK OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE RIDGE INTO SOUTHWEST CO DURING THE AFTERNOON.  ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH WY/NRN CO THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING WITH
BOTH OF THESE LOOKS WEAK...AND MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERSELLING
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THE PAST FEW DAYS.  WILL CARRY MAINLY ISOLATED
POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORMS ONCE
AGAIN LOOKING RATHER HIGH BASED.  FOR THE PLAINS...ANY SHOWERS
SHOULD QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY AFTERNOON...WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS LOOKING VERY CAPPED.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY QUICKLY AS THEY DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE COOLER
MORE STABLE AIRMASS.  KEPT TEMPERATURES TODAY COOLER THAN GUIDANCE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...AND SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY`S READINGS
OUT WEST.

FOR TONIGHT...WHATEVER BREAKS IN THE STRATUS OCCUR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PLAINS SHOULD FILL BACK IN WITH UPSLOPE FLOW
CONTINUING DURING THE EVENING. LEE TROF DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT AND
STRATUS SHOULD START TO ERODE EASTWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT.  KEPT LOW
TEMPERATURES WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS GRIDS.
-KT

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 521 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

A MORE ACTIVE METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

INITIALLY...FORECAST DISTRICT SHOULD EXPERIENCE ABOVE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH GENERALLY ISOLATED PRIMARILY
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY THANKS TO AN UPPER RIDGING PATTERN.

UNSETTLED METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE THEN PROJECTED BEGINNING
LATER THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND AS INCREASED
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE
INTERACTS WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES IMPACTING THE FORECAST
DISTRICT.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES IS ANTICIPATED OVER PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. AREA
BURN SCARS AS WELL AS FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY FROM LATER THIS WEEK INTO THIS
WEEKEND.

IN ADDITION...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE OVER PRIMARILY FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA FROM
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

FINALLY...TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO DECREASE TO NEAR MID
TO LATE SEPTEMBER CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1017 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

KALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AROUND THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WEAK STEERING
FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THEM AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL.

KCOS AND KPUB...STRATUS OVER EASTERN COLORADO IS SLOWLY BACKING
WEST INTO THE AREA. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES IT
SHOULD REACH KPUB BY 18Z AND THICKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
CIGS AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. STRATUS IS
HAVING A HARD TIME ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY GIVEN THE MORE SOUTHERLY
WIND COMPONENT. HAVE STRATUS BACKING INTO KCOS BY 21Z WITH CIGS
AROUND 1500 TO 2000 FEET THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MOZLEY


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