Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 262124

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
324 PM MDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 324 PM MDT Fri Aug 26 2016

...Afternoon and Evening Thunderstorms to Continue...

Airmass appears to be drying out some.  Water vapor imagery shows
drier air encroaching from the west, reaching to the I-25 corridor
now.  Surface dewpoints are coming down under the drying, now
mostly in the 30s to lower 40s across the higher elevations with
even some middle 20s up at Leadville.  Along the I-25 corridor,
dewpoints are still holding in the mid 40s to lower 50s.  Farther
east across the plains, dews are still in the lower to middle 50s.
Based on the high resolution models and available moisture, the far
southeast plains are the most likely area to see some action this
evening.  Elsewhere, activity should be fairly isolated and less
intense.  The primary storm threats this evening will be lightning,
wind gusts to around 40 mph, local heavy rain and possibly some
small hail.  1 or 2 storms over the far eastern plains could produce
gusts up to 60 mph and hail to 1 inch in diameter.  Looks like most
of the activity this evening will diminish pretty early.  It should
be over in most areas by 9 pm if not sooner.

Saturday, another monsoon disturbance will track across the area in
the afternoon.  So, another round of afternoon and evening storms
can be expected.  Airmass looks pretty similar to today so storm
coverage, intensities and threats should be pretty similar.  It`ll
be a little warmer, though, with highs warming around 5 degrees or
so in most areas, getting temperatures back pretty close to average
for this time of year.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 324 PM MDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Saturday night-Monday...Broad upper trough across the region slowly
weakens and is pushed south into early next week, as upper level
ridging across the West Coast builds into Great Basin and Northern
Rockies ahead of an upper trough digging across the Pac NW Coast.
Models continue to differ in the amount of available moisture, with
the GFS keeping monsoonal plume in place across the Southern and
Central Rockies, where as the latest ECMWF continues to keep the
bulk of the plume south and east of Colorado. At any rate, there
should be enough moisture to work with the weakening system and
diurnal heating for isolated to scattered afternoon and evening
showers and storms through the period, with the best coverage
remaining over and near the higher terrain. The main threat from
storms will be gusty outflow winds with the stronger storms having
the potential for locally heavy rain and localized flash flooding,
with weak steering flow aloft. Warming aloft to allow for
temperatures to warm back to around seasonal averages through the
period, with highs in the upper 70s to around 90 across the lower
elevations and mainly 60s to lower 70s across the higher terrain.

Tuesday-Friday...Upper ridging builds across the state through mid
week, as a deep upper trough continues to dig across the West Coast.
More west to southwest flow aloft develops across the area for
Thursday and Friday, though models continue differ on the amount of
available moisture, as well as the strength and location of upper
trough. GFS remains the wettest and keeps a deep trough across the
Great Basin on Friday, with the EC much drier as the system lifts
north and east across the Northern Tier. For now, have kept current
model consensus isolated to scattered diurnal pops across mainly the
higher terrain with temperatures at or above seasonal averages
through the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 324 PM MDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Monsoon moisture remains over the flight area. Isolated to scattered
showers and storms will continue through the afternoon into the
early evening.  The most widespread and intense storms are expected
over the far southeast plains. Elsewhere, storms will be more
isolated and not quite as strong. Primary storm threats from most
storms this evening will be lightning, wind gusts to around 40 mph,
brief heavy rain and possibly some small hail. However, 1 or 2 of
the stronger storms, especially over the far southeast plains, could
produce gusts up to 60 mph and hail to 1 inch in diameter. The KCOS,
KPUB and KALS TAF sites will all see a chance for storms this
evening, primarily before 02z. Flight conditions will generally be
VFR but areas of MVFR, IFR and LIFR conditions will be encountered
in areas clouds and precipitation.  Much the same scenario, with
similar weather conditions is expected for Saturday.


.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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