Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 261336
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
636 AM MST FRI DEC 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM MST FRI DEC 26 2014

WHILE THE SNOW HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF OUR
CWA...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS JUST NOW MOVING INTO NW NM...JUST
SE OF THE 4 CORNERS REGION. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWS A BAND OF
MODERATE SNOW MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH BETWEEN 16Z AND 21Z THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...COVERING MUCH OF THE SE PLAINS. SO...WILL
STAY THE COURSE DESPITE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS AT THIS
POINT. ONE TO FOUR INCH ACCUMS STILL LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS
POINT. SOME 4 TO 6 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SANGRES AND SRN I-25 NR KTAD. KCOS MAY MISS OUT ON MUCH OF THE
SNOWFALL. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MST FRI DEC 26 2014

...COLD WITH SNOW SHOWERS TODAY...

UPPER LOW NOW OVER SRN UT IS SLOWLY TRANSLATING EWD THIS MORNING. AS
A REMINDER THAT DPROG DT IS NOT ALWAYS ON TARGET...THE TRACK AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW SEEMS TO BE REVERTING BACK TO MODEL RUNS FROM
SEVERAL DAYS AGO...BEFORE THE RECENT STRENGTHENING TREND IN THE
PROGS. SO...NOT EXPECTING ANY MAJOR SNOWFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...ALL HI RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A FAIRLY ROBUST BAND
OF SNOW DEVELOPING THROUGH THIS MORNING OVER THE SE PLAINS. IT LOOKS
LIKE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A CONVERGENCE ZONE
ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE H7 LOW TRACK...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE
FROM AROUND KTAD MOVING NEWD TO S OF KITR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SO...BEST CHANCE OF DECENT SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE OUT OVER THE SE
PLAINS FROM AROUND 12Z TO 18Z...POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON IF THE LOW CONTINUES TO STALL. NOT SEEING A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF UPSLOPE ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR...BUT COULD SEE A BRIEF
ROUND OF SOME MODT SNOW AS THE LOW TRACKS THROUGH ERN CO AND HT
WINDS BACK FOR A WHILE. AS MENTIONED IN AN EARLIER DISCUSSION...THE
INFAMOUS BROWN HOLE IN NRN PUEBLO AND SRN EL PASO COUNTIES MAY NOT
SEE MUCH SNOW...MAYBE ONLY AN INCH OR TWO IF THE BANDING DOESN`T
DEVELOP...BUT A FEW SPOTS FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH COULD STILL SEE
SOME DECENT ACCUMS IN THE 3-6 INCH RANGE. WILL JUST HAVE TO TAKE A
WAIT AND SEE APPROACH...BUT AT THIS TIME SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE ONGOING HIGHLIGHTS ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE POTENTIAL
HOLIDAY TRAVEL IMPACT ALONG ROUTES SUCH AS 50...160...AND 96.

OTHER STORY WILL BE THE MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NORTH.
LEADING EDGE OF THE MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR IS ARRIVING EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND H7 TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL FROM AROUND MINUS 10
THIS MORN TO MINUS 15 OR LOWER BY LATE AFTERNOON. SO...NOT EXPECTING
ANY REAL INCREASE IN TEMPS TODAY...IN FACT DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT
OF PRECIP WE COULD SEE FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE CUT BACK
HIGH TEMPS OVER THE PLAINS BY A COUPLE DEGREES...AS WE WILL START
OUT CHILLY AND STAY THAT WAY TODAY. HIGH VALLEYS WILL SEE SIMILAR
HIGHS...IN THE 20S...ALONG WITH AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODT SNOW
THROUGHOUT THE CWA.

WILL START TO SEE PRECIP TAPER OFF AFTER 00Z THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME LINGERING SN SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TRRN AND
PORTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS. MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE DONE BY 06Z
TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...AND IT WILL BE COLD...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE PLAINS AND NEGATIVES FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS AND MT
AREAS. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MST FRI DEC 26 2014

PRIMARY LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS INCLUDE TEMPERATURES
AND POPS. LATEST REAL-TIME DATA...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT SYSTEM IMPACTING FORECAST
DISTRICT TODAY(FRIDAY) WILL BE DEPARTING THE CWFA SATURDAY
ALLOWING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS(BUT STILL BELOW SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES) TO BE NOTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF SOUTHERN COLORADO
FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

NEXT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY COLD SURFACE SURGE(DRIVEN BY
1050+ MB SURFACE HIGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN MONTANA BY 00Z
TUESDAY) IS PROJECTED TO PRODUCE UNSEASONABLY COOL TO COLD
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY EASTERN SECTIONS...FROM MONDAY INTO AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED
BY LATE WEEK.

IN ADDITION...UPPER DISTURBANCES IN COMBINATION WITH THE SURFACE
SURGE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS(INCLUDING
THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW) OVER MANY SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

AS TOUCHED UPON BRIEFLY EARLIER...UNSEASONABLE COLD CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED FROM MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHERE MANY
LOCATIONS MAY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURE READINGS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MST FRI DEC 26 2014

IMPACT FOR THE TAF SITES IS NOT LOOKING QUITE AS GREAT
AS IT HAD EARLIER...BUT COULD STILL SEE SOME PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR
ESPECIALLY AT KCOS...AND POTENTIALLY AT KPUB IF AREAS OF BANDED SNOW
TO THE E OF I-25 AND S OF HGWY 50 DRIFT A BIT FARTHER TO THE NW.
HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE IN THE 12Z-18Z TIME FRAME...THEN
PERIODS OF SHSN POSSIBLE THROUGH 03Z BEFORE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
COZ058>067-069>080-083-085>089-093>099.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ081-082-084.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE



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