Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 121041
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
441 AM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROF PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY WL SEND A
FRONT INTO NE CO...WHICH IS THEN EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO SERN
CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  CURRENTLY THIS EARLY MORNING
THERE ARE SOME LIGHT ECHOES OVER THE CONTDVD...SO WL HAVE SOME ISOLD
POPS IN THAT AREA FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  HI RES FORECAST
MODELS THEN SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVR THE MTNS IN THE LATE
MORNING HRS.  THE PCPN THEN SPREADS OVR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND I-25
CORRIDOR IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THEN OVR THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND IN THE EVENING HOURS.  THE WRF AND RAP
SHOW EL PASO COUNTY...ESPECIALLY NRN AND WRN PORTIONS POTENTIALLY
GETTING HIT WITH HEAVY RAIN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL NORTHEAST WINDS.  WITH THE FLOW ALOFT
EXPECTED TO ONLY BE AROUND 5 KTS...THAT WOULD LEAD TO SLOW MOVING
STORMS AND THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN. AREA BURN SCARS WL BE A CONCERN
IF HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF ERN EL PASO COUNTY
THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN LAST EVENING.

IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH TO THE RATON
MESA AREA...THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL MAY SHIFT TO THAT AREA FOR THE
REST OF THE EVENING.  THE WRF THEN DECREASES OR END MOST OF THE PCPN
AFTER 06Z.  HOWEVER...THE 06Z RUN OF THE NAM12 HAS COME IN WITH
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL THRU THE NIGHT OVR THE WET AND SANGRE DE CRISTO
MTNS AND THE ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS.  THE NAM IS SHOWING AROUND
2.5 INCHES OF PCPN OVR THE WET MTNS IN THE PERIOD FROM 00Z-12Z
SUN...WITH ABOUT 1-1.5 INCHES OVR SW PUEBLO...HUERFANO AND WRN LAS
ANIMAS COUNTIES...WITH MID LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AROUND 15 KTS.  THE
GFS ALSO PEGS THE SANGRES AND WET AS AN AREA THAT COULD SEE SOME
HEAVIER RAIN OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER ITS AMOUNTS ARE MUCH LESS WHEN
COMPARED TO THE NAM.  SINCE THE HRRR AND RAP DO NOT GO OUT THROUGH
THE NIGHT PERIOD YET...WILL JUST GO WITH SOME SCT POPS OVERNIGHT
OVER THE SANGRES AND WETS AND NEARBY LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LET THE
NEXT SHIFT EVALUATE THE HI RES MODEL DATA AS IT COMES IN FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALONG WITH THE NEXT RUN OF THE NAM.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 AM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014

...COOL AND WET WEATHER EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF WORK WEEK...

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK TO MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PROGGED ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING BUILDING BACK
ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND GREAT BASIN AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LATEST MODELS ARE
INDICATING SHORT WAVE ENERGY TRANSLATING DOWN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WITH SECONDARY SURGE OF COOL AIR BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS AND INTO EASTERN COLORADO. MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING THE
MAIN MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME BEING SHUNTED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
AREA WITH SOME DRIER AIR EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEVELOPING NORTHERLY
FLOW SLOWLY WORKING INTO NORTHWESTERN COLORADO. HOWEVER....PRECIP
WATER...IS PROGGED TO REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE AREA WITH READINGS
BETWEEN 0.75 INCHES AND 1.5 INCHES...GREATEST ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. THERE COULD BE SOME ONGOING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AS SECONDARY SURGE OF COOL AIR AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BACKS INTO EASTERN COLORADO. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...ALONG
WITH STRONG SOLAR HEATING AND SOME INCREASED UVV ASSOCIATED WITH
PASSING SHORT WAVE...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE SUNDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED STORMS SPREADING ACROSS THE
ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STORMS WILL BE GENERALLY SLOW MOVING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL LEADING TO POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS AREA BURN SCARS. THERE MAY ALSO BE ENOUGH SHEAR ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF WORK WEEK WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGE PERSISTING ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND GREAT BASIN AS THE
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION DIGS
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. DRIER AIR EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK INTO WESTERN COLORADO...THOUGH PRECIP WATER
LOOKS TO REMAIN HIGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS
WITH CONTINUED MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE AS COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS STATES. AGAIN WITH THE
AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...GENERALLY DIURNAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA...WITH BEST COVERAGE
OVER AND NEAR THE MTS. WITH THE MODERATE FLOW ALOFT...STORMS WILL BE
MOVING...HOWEVER LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO REMAIN POSSIBLE. WITH
FAIRLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND THE MOIST AND COOL UPSLOPE FLOW...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW TO WELL BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...A SLOW WARMING AND DRYING TREND IN THE OFFING INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING AS
UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS
TO KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST...WITH BEST
COVERAGE REMAINING ACROSS THE MTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 441 AM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014

COULD SEE SOME STRATUS THIS MORNING AT KCOS AND KPUB...OTHERWISE
EXPECTED MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THESE SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RAIN.  KALS SHOULD GENERALLY SEE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BUT IT THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THE AREA...THERE COULD BE
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AS A RESULT OF HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28


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