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000
FXUS65 KPUB 101726
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1026 AM MST TUE DEC 10 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM MST TUE DEC 10 2013

CURRENTLY...CLEAR SKIES IN NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS COLORADO WILL KEEP
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN DEPENDENT ON WINDS...WITH AREAS ALONG THE LEE
SLOPES REMAINING IN THE MID TEENS...WHILE AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF
I-25 HAVE FALLEN TO NEAR ZERO.  HOW FAR TEMPERATURES DROP WILL
DEPEND ON WINDS THIS MORNING.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH TONIGHT.  EXPECT QUIET WEATHER THROUGH
THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO.  MIXING IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MODEST WARM UP
ACROSS THE REGION.  MOST AREAS WILL SEE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW WILL PASS OVER NORTHERN COLORADO
TONIGHT.  HIGH-RES MODELS ARE GENERATING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN SAWATCH AND MOSQUITO RANGES AFTER SUNSET AND DISSIPATING BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.  LESS THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.  A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY MIDNIGHT...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM MST TUE DEC 10 2013

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF WL MOVE OVR THE AREA ON WED BUT THE WEATHER WL
REMAIN DRY.  COOLER LOW LEVEL TEMPS OVR THE SERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED
TO RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. THE WEATHER WL
REMAIN DRY WED NIGHT AND THU...WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING OVR THE AREA
BRINGING WARMER AIR.  WINDS OVR MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS LOOK
FAIRLY LIGHT ON THU...BUT COULD BE A LITTLE BREEZY NR THE EASTERN
MTS HELPING TO WARM TEMPS IN THESE AREAS.  MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE
QUITE WARM THIS DAY...BUT AM RELUCTANT TO GO AS WARM AS GUIDANCE AS
MIXING DOES NOT LOOK THAT GOOD. HOWEVER THE GFS IS SHOWING A LEE TROF
MOVING OUT OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS...WITH WESTERLY WINDS PICKING UP
OUT ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR HELPING TO WARM TEMPS.  FOR NOW WL
STICK WITH HIGHS THAT ARE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE AND IN AGREEMENT WITH
SURROUNDING FORECAST OFFICES...AND WL HAVE THE WARMEST READINGS NR
THE ERN MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR AREAS.

THU NIGHT AND FRI...AND UPR TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACRS SRN CO AND
NM...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME LIGHT PCPN TO THE SRN MTS...MAINLY ON
FRI.  THAT SYSTEM PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
FRI...AND ANOTHER UPR TROF MOVES OVR CO FROM THE NW POSSIBLY
BRINGING SOME SNOW TO THE CENTRAL MTS MAINLY LATE FRI AND FRI
NIGHT...AND SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE ERN MTS FRI NIGHT.

NW FLOW ALOFT WL BE OVR THE AREA SAT THROUGH MON.  THE WEATHER
SHOULD BE DRY BUT COOLER ON SAT. SUN A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVE SOUTH
INTO THE STATE AND POSSIBLY BRINGS SOME SNOW TO THE CENTRAL MTS. MON
LOOKS DRY AND WARMER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1023 AM MST TUE DEC 10 2013

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVER THROUGH THE PLAINS THIS EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS
TO THE NORTH AT KPUB AND KCOS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...PETERSEN