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000
FXUS65 KPUB 141530
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
930 AM MDT FRI MAR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 AM MDT FRI MAR 14 2014

UPPER LOW OVER AZ CONTINUES TO LOOK FAIRLY WEAK...AND 12Z MODELS
CONTINUE TO DECREASE PRECIP OVER THE AREA. BEGAN TO TRIM BACK
NORTHERN EDGE OF POPS...AS SHOWERS MAY STAY MAINLY OVER THE SAN
JUANS AND SOUTHERN SANGRES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT FRI MAR 14 2014

THE UPR TROF THAT BROUGHT A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LAST EVENING WILL
BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING.  PICKING UP SOME ECHOES ON
RADAR THIS MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO
MTNS...EASTWARD TO THE KS BORDER.  WL MAINLY KEEP POPS OVR THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SERN MTS...THE SRN FOOTHILLS  AND OVR THE
SW MTS THIS MORNING WITH THE REST OF THE AREA BEING DRY. THIS
AFTERNOON AN UPR LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACRS SRN AZ...AND
PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE SRN CO
MTNS.  THUS WL KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS OVR THE SW MTNS AND THE SW MTS
WITH A COUPLE TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION OVR THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT THAT UPR LOW TO THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
EASTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NM BY 12Z SAT.  THE FORECAST MODELS SHOW
SOME LIGHT PCPN BEING POSSIBLE OVR THE SW MTNS THRU THE NIGHT SO WL
KEEP SOME ISOLD TO SCT POPS IN THIS AREA.  THE NAM SHOWS DRY
CONDITIONS OVR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...AN UPR TROF WL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THRU WY OVERNIGHT AND
PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON THE NAM...BUT THE GFS BRING SOME PCPN INTO THE
CENTRAL CO MTNS BY MORNING.  WL GO AHEAD WITH SOME ISOLD TO SCT POPS
IN THE CENTRAL MTNS LATE TONIGHT IN CASE THE FASTER TIMING OF THE
GFS ENDS UP BEING CORRECT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT FRI MAR 14 2014

SATURDAY...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS MT AND WY LATE
FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING...PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS THE PALMER DVD WILL OCCUR CLOSE TO MIDDAY...SO EXPECT
A WARM AND BREEZY START TO THE DAY WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 50S
JUST PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS THAT DO
DEVELOP WITH THE FEATURE WILL START OUT AS RAIN THROUGH THE
AFTN...THEN THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE NM STATE
LINE AS THE SHOWERS SWITCH OVER TO SNOW. THE HIGHEST PEAKS SHOULD
SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF NEW SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT OTHERWISE NOT
MUCH PCPN IS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS THE ONE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION...AND ANOTHER APPROACHES.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...AS WELL AS TEMPS AROUND 60 F FOR THE
PLAINS ON SUN...AND THEN INCREASING AGAIN TO AROUND 70 F ON MON.
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SW MON AFTN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPS OUT OF THE PAC
NW BRINGING PCPN TO THE CENT MTS MON NIGHT...THEN QUICKLY DROPS
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA TUE. LOOKS FOR A 15 TO 20 DEG DROP IN
TEMPS ON TUE ALONG WITH A QUICK BLAST OF PCPN TAPERING OFF BY
MIDNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION WILL MEAN DRY AND
MILD WITH MAX TEMPS RIGHT AROUND 60 F FOR THE PLAINS...AND AROUND 50
F FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS...BOTH DAYS. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT FRI MAR 14 2014

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY OF KALS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT IF ANY PCPN FALLS IT SHOULD BE LIGHT AND NOT
RESTRICT VSBY OR CAUSE LOW CIGS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...28