724
FXUS65 KPUB 282031
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
231 PM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- One more hot day for Sunday, but an incoming cold front by
  the afternoon will mean increased chances for showers and
  thunderstorms through the evening and again on Monday.

- Cooler Monday, then warming up through mid week.

- Monsoon moisture tap for the higher terrain setting up for
  next week, with some overlap across the I-25 Corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Currently...High pressure holding on across the Desert Southwest has
produced another very hot and dry day for the region, though a few
showers and thunderstorms have developed across the eastern mts and
I-25 Corridor this afternoon producing some CG strikes and gusty
outflow winds. Temps as of 2 PM have climbed into the 80s for the
high valleys, and mid 80s to mid 90s for the plains with near 100F
along the lower Arkansas River Valley.

Tonight...Broad high pressure across the Desert SW and the Four
Corners region persists, though an upper disturbance will cross the
Northern Rockies overnight, pushing a cold front southward across
WY. Isolated convection currently across portions of the plains will
linger into the evening before diminishing near midnight, favoring
the Palmer Divide and far eastern plains. The main threats will
continue to be cloud to ground lightning and gusty outflow winds.
Overnight min temps are expected to drop into the 40s to near 50F
for the high valleys, and 50s to around 60F for the plains.

Tomorrow...Overall, a more active day is on tap for Sunday, though
cooler temperatures will be held off for just a bit longer. A rather
warm start to the day coupled with westerly surface flow should help
boost temperatures quickly through the morning hours, making for
another very hot and dry day by around noon, ahead of the incoming
cold front. Hi-res models indicate that showers and thunderstorms
will again initiate over the mts and I-25 Corridor by midday, and
then as the cold front pushes through showers and storms will spread
in coverage across the area. CAPE sits at 800-1000 j/kg through late
afternoon into the eve across the plains, with bulk shear increasing
into the evening with frontal passage, and SPC has painted a good
swath for Marginal severe threat for the far eastern plains.
Scattered showers appear to be a good call through the evening, with
a higher probability for periods of moderate rain, gusty winds and
small hail. Plan on high temps in the 80s once again for the high
valleys, and mid 80s to mid 90s for the plains. Moore

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 303 AM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Sunday night...With upslope flow developing after the front
moves across, expect a band of showers and thunderstorms to move
across the eastern plains Sunday evening. With light flow aloft
and some instability, storms should not be all that organized,
but some locally heavy rain, gusty winds and some small hail
cannot be ruled out. Storms may linger into the late evening
hours over the far eastern plains.

Monday...it will be noticeably cooler across the plains with showers
increasing all areas. Overall best chance will be along the I-25
corridor late Monday afternoon and early evening. Some locally
heavy rain is likely and there will be some modest shear, so a
few stronger storms will be possible.

Tuesday...Mtns will see the best chance of precip this day although
overall amounts will be light. Temps will start to warm up once
again with seasonable values over the region. Precip for the eastern
plains will be minimal.

Wednesday...Temps continue to warm over the plains, however qpf for
the mountains along with pops will be on the increase over the mtns,
especially interior mtns as monsoon pattern becomes a bit more
developed as a trough off the west coast moves onshore and southerly
moist lower level flow develops over the southwest. Some locally
heavy rain will be likely over the interior mtns on this day with
mainly dry conditions over the plains.

Thursday into next weekend...Trend in the guidance is temps
will be cooling slightly with time and a better chance of some
precip over the plains. With flow becoming more westerly and
temps aloft cooling, the mtns should dry out with a chance of
storms over the plains. Shear is fcst to increase so a few
stronger storms can`t be ruled out. /Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1134 AM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025

VFR conditions anticipated across much of the forecast area over the
next 24 hours, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and
KALS. Surface winds will generally be diurnal in direction and under
12 kts.

Isolated convection across the eastern mts, Palmer Divide and Raton
Mesa this afternoon and evening will produce virga and potentially
brief gusty winds, with the highest probability affecting KCOS.
However, confidence is too low to include in the TAF.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE