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000
FXUS65 KPUB 232114
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
314 PM MDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 314 PM MDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Currently, quite a bit of cloud cover in cool air across the
eastern mountains, I -25 corridor, and plains. With some sun this
afternoon temperatures have reached the mid to upper 60s across
the plains, but the temperatures range from the mid 50s to mid 60s
across the I- 25 corridor and adjacent high valleys. With mostly
sunny conditions in the western part of the area, temperatures are
well into the 70s in the San Luis Valley and mainly 50s and 60s
across the mountains.

Tonight, short term models still hinting at some isolated showers
and weak storms across the eastern higher terrain, so kept isolated
to low grade scattered pops in that area and immediate adjacent
terrain.  Issue will be with the extent of the cloud cover and
ceiling heights for aviation.  Model guidance is not suggesting any
widespread fog at this time, but cannot rule out some patchy fog,
especially in those areas where it rained a little more this morning.

Saturday, expecting it to be warmer, with some more sunshine across
eastern part of the CWA. Highs should reach the 70s across the
plains and I-25 corridor, and around 80 across the San Luis Valley.
Mountain highs will be in the 50s to lower 70s. GFS is much more
aggressive with the showers and storms in the afternoon, while
NAM more conservative. Given the instability values on both
models, would tend toward the NAM, with most instability across
the eastern mountains and adjacent terrain. Greatest instability
and shear across the southern Sangres/I-25 corridor which is in a
sliver of marginal risk for severe storms, which seems reasonable.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 314 PM MDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Saturday night through Monday...The ridge of high pressure over the
desert SW will keep northwest flow aloft across Colorado over the
weekend. Continued below normal temps and isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms across the higher terrain and eastern
plains are expected, as NE-E llvl flow feeds cooler air and moisture
back towards the southern Front Range. On Mon the ridge starts to
break down, with westerly downslope flow off the mts interrupting
the easterly upslope flow, resulting in slimmer pcpn chances and
warmer temps. Expect max temps in the mid 70s to lower 80s for Sun,
then in the 80s for most areas on Mon.

Tuesday through Friday...Westerly zonal flow settles in across the
region starting Tue, with the models now coming to some sort of
agreement on an upper low crossing Canada and the northern Rockies
Wed through Fri. At this point, it looks like this feature will be
too far north to affect Colorado save for an increase in the
westerly flow aloft. This will serve to heat temps up, and drop pcpn
chances to isolated at best, through the remainder of the work week.
Look for highs in the 80s for the high valleys, and in the 90s for
the eastern plains. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 314 PM MDT Fri Jun 23 2017

KALS...VFR conditions expected through 18Z Saturday. Winds forecast
to be from the east into the early afternoon, then switch to
westerly by midafternoon.

KCOS and KPUB MVFR to occasional low VFR conditions expected at both
KCOS and KPUB due to areas of light rain and/or low ceilings.
Similar ceiling expected tonight minus any chances for light rain.
Some improvement in ceilings expected Saturday morning.

Across the eastern mountains...possibility of obscurations and
isolated to scattered showers and storms through early evening, then
some mountain obscuration tonight and Saturday morning.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...TM