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000
FXUS65 KPUB 280650
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1150 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1149 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

LOADED FRESH OBSERVATIONS INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS. NO
OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 948 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

LOADED FRESH OBSERVATIONS INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS. NO
OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO EASTERN MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

CURRENTLY...BROAD SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW HAS KEPT
LIGHT SNOW GOING ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
UP TO AN INCH OF LIGHT FLUFF IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
EASTERN LEE SLOPES.  TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COLD WITH TEENS AND LOW
20S ACROSS THE REGION.

TONIGHT...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IS
FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT
INCREASING SNOW INTENSITIES ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY THE SAN JUAN RANGE WHERE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
FAVORED.  HIGH-RES MODELS AND THE NAM ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BAND
LIFTING NORTH OUT OF NEW MEXICO LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL IMPACT THE COUNTIES ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.  GIVEN
THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE LOW LEVELS...LIGHT
SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

SATURDAY...THE DISTURBANCE LIFTING OUT OF NEW MEXICO WILL SHIFT EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE MORNING WITH BROAD WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUING ACROSS COLORADO.  EXPECT THE BAND OF SNOW ALONG THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER TO SHIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS WITH THE
UPPER WAVE.  LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.  OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WESTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BRING HEAVY SNOWFALL TO
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  AREAS OVER THE SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA
RANGES WILL SEE VERY HEAVY SNOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

AS FAR AS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE
EASTERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY SEE UP TO TWO INCHES...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF BACA COUNTY WHICH WILL LIKELY SEE AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES AS THE
BAND LIFTS NORTH OUT OF NEW MEXICO.  LOCATIONS OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 INCHES ALONG WITH
MOST AREAS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  THE HEAVY SNOW OVER THE
SAN JUAN RANGE WILL SEE IN EXCESS OF 1 FOOT OF SNOW.  SEE THE WINTER
WEATHER WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR THE LONG DURATION SNOW
FORECASTS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

UPPER JET REMAINS ACROSS COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN US. CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WILL BE MEASURING SNOW IN FEET BY MONDAY MORNING AS PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE...WITH PERHAPS JUST A BRIEF LET-UP IN
SNOWFALL RATES EARLY SUN...BEFORE MAIN SLUG OF MOISTURE SLAMS BACK
INTO THE SAN JUANS SUN EVENING. STILL APPEARS SAN JUANS WILL SEE
4 PLUS FEET BY MON AFTERNOON...WITH OVER 2 FEET POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SAWATCH RANGE. LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS WON`T SEE QUITE AS MUCH SNOW...THOUGH
AMOUNTS OVER A FOOT STILL LIKELY BY LATE MON. FARTHER
EAST OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE...SNOWFALL WILL BE MORE
INTERMITTENT...WITH A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW SAT NIGHT...THEN A
LULL SUN BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND SUN NIGHT INTO MON. HIGHER WEST
FACING SLOPES WILL DO BEST AS MID-LEVEL FLOW STAYS SW...AND WILL
KEEP WINTER STORM WARNINGS GOING SUN INTO MON FOR THE HIGHER
PEAKS. MAY NEED TO EXPAND ADVISORIES LOWER ELEVATION ZONES OF
NORTHERN SANGRES LATE SUN...BUT WILL HOLD OFF AS EASTERN SLOPES
COULD BE SOMEWHAT SHADOWED. MOST VALLEYS WILL SEE PERIODS OF SNOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MANY
LOCATIONS BY MON MORNING. EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WILL SEE
ON/OFF LIGHT SNOW LATE SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A
STEADIER SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS SAT EVENING AND AGAIN SUN EVENING AS
LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PRODUCE SOME WEAK
LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY SNOW
ACROSS THE PLAINS...THOUGH WARM NOSE JUST BELOW 700 MB MAY PRODUCE
SOME BRIEF FZRA OR SLEET ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN BACA COUNTY
BEFORE PRECIP ENDS EARLY MON MORNING.

ON MON...SNOW PERSISTS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS ENERGY
CONTINUES TO LIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH. WILL
LIKELY NEED TO EXTEND WARNINGS FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAIN ZONES FROM LATE MON INTO TUE...AS ANY LET-UP IN THE SNOW
WILL BE BRIEF. FARTHER EAST...STRONG SW DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL TEND
TO KILL ANY SNOW EAST OF I-25 MON...WITH JUST A FEW SPILL-OVER
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WETS/SANGRES THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPS ON
THE PLAINS TRICKY MON WITH HOWLING SW WIND JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE...WHILE SNOW-COVERED GROUND AND COLD BOUNDARY LAYER
WORK AGAINST DEEP MIXING. EXPECT MOST EAST MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND
LOWER ELEVATIONS TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING MON AFTERNOON...THOUGH
WOULDN`T BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE COLD AIR HOLD ON UNTIL LATE IN
THE DAY ACROSS THE ARKANSAS VALLEY AROUND KPUB WHERE SNOW IS
FAIRLY DEEP.

MON NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING...WESTERN U.S. TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS
TO EJECT EASTWARD...WITH LAST BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DROPPING QUICKLY
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY MIDDAY TUE. STILL EXPECT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY
TUE...SPREADING TO THE PLAINS TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...THOUGH
LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON SNOW
AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS. SYSTEM STILL
APPEARS TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY WED AFTERNOON WITH ANY LINGERING
FLURRIES ENDING BY EVENING. MAX TEMPS TUE WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY
IN THE DAY...WITH FALLING READINGS MANY AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WED WILL REMAIN COLD WITH ALL LOCATIONS REMAINING WELL
BELOW FREEZING.

WESTERN RIDGE RETURNS THU/FRI WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING
TEMPS...THOUGH WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER WILL SLOW THE WARM-
UP...ESPECIALLY THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1023 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE CORE OF A STRONG UPPER JET STREAM WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER
COLORADO LATER TODAY. THIS IS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
CALIFORNIA THAT WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE HEAVY SNOW OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SAN JUANS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
DISTURBANCES IN THE JET STREAM...ALONG WITH UPSLOPE WINDS AND COLD
AIR OVER THE PLAINS...WILL ALSO KEEP THE THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS GOING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. KCOS AND KPUB SHOULD SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...PERHAPS
EVEN SEEING VFR IN THE 12Z-18Z PERIOD...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY AT KCOS LATER IN THE
DAY DUE TO CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW. HOWEVER...ANY ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE. AT KALS...PERIODS OF
SNOW AND MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PERSIST...PARTICULARLY
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
00Z SAT. ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ060-066>068-
073-075.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ064-065-074.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY
FOR COZ059.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR
COZ058-061.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...ROSE