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000
FXUS65 KPUB 190525
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1125 PM MDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1125 PM MDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Tweaked low temperatures across the area, as some valley locales
are seeing good radiational cooling with the dry airmass in
place.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 406 PM MDT Wed Oct 18 2017

...Generally Warm & Dry Next 24 Hours...

Upper ridge and dry westerly flow will continue over the forecast
area tonight.  On Thursday, the weather pattern will start to modify
a little as a weak disturbance over southern Nevada this afternoon
shifts northeastward into the area.  The disturbance will bring a
gradual increase in mid and upper level moisture to the region
overnight. On Thursday, moisture may thicken enough to bring a few
spotty showers to the mountains by late in the day.  However,
nothing too widespread or intense is expected.  Temperatures will
continue above average with afternoon highs on Thursday generally 5
or more degrees above normals.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 406 PM MDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Overall, low-grade to nil pops in combination with basically near
to above mid to latter October climatological average temperatures
are anticipated over the forecast district during the longer term.
In addition, localized elevated fire weather concerns and gusty
winds are also meteorological concerns at times.

Initially, a weak upper disturbance(capable of generating light
precipitation(under .05")...over primarily higher terrain western
locations) should impact the forecast district Thursday night.

Then, basically dry and gusty southwesterly upper flow should be
noted from Friday into Friday evening in advance of next
potentially stronger upper system from later Friday evening into
Saturday. In addition, a north-northeasterly surface surge moves
across eastern sections of the CWA by Saturday morning.

At this time, total precipitation amounts under .35" may be noted
over a few locations with snow amounts under 3 inches possible
over select central mountain locations from later Friday evening
into later Saturday. Please note that many lower elevations may
not receive any measurable precipitation with this event. Also,
localized elevated fire weather concerns will be a possibility
Saturday afternoon over portions of the San Luis Valley. As
always, WFO Pueblo will monitor closely and issue meteorological
highlights as needed/warranted.

Then, a return to a basically dry northwesterly upper flow
meteorological pattern is anticipated over the forecast district
from Saturday night into next Wednesday in combination with
another north-northeasterly surface surge by Monday evening.
Overall, gusty winds at times as well as near to above seasonal
temperatures should be experienced over the forecast district
during this time-frame.

At this time, it appears that the warmest temperatures during
the longer term over the forecast district should be realized
Friday, Monday and Wednesday with Friday expected to be the
warmest day, while coolest temperature readings should be
experienced Saturday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1117 PM MDT Wed Oct 18 2017

VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hrs at KCOS, KPUB and
KALS, with mainly high level clouds covering the area. Diurnally
driven winds are expected at the forecast sites.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
AVIATION...28