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000
FXUS65 KPUB 212128
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
328 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

REMNANT MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
COLORADO WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO EXPECTED TO LIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE UPPER HIGH.  SO FAR...CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN HOLDING DOWN THE HEATING...WHICH HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES
FROM HITTING 100 ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS.
FARTHER EAST A BIT MORE SUN WILL LIKELY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO HIT
LOWER 100S OUT TOWARDS LAA.  INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS BEST THIS
AFTERNOON TO THE EAST OF A LINE FROM EADS TO LAS ANIMAS TO KIM.  IF
DEW POINTS CAN STAY IN THE LOWER 50S...THEN 1500 J/KG (OR A LITTLE
BETTER) OF CAPE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PLAINS.  WEAK FLOW WITHIN THE UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP DEEP LAYER
SHEARS ON THE WEAK SIDE FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
STORM ORGANIZATION.  BUT WITH DOWNDRAFT CAPES OF 1500+ J/KG...GUSTY
OUT FLOW WINDS TO AROUND 60 MPH...AND HAIL NEAR 1 INCH IN DIAMETER
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS IN THIS AREA.  ELSEWHERE...GUSTY WINDS
AND LIGHTNING LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.  ATMOSPHERE DOES NOT LOOK
VERY CONDUCIVE FOR FLASH FLOODING ON AREA BURN SCARS TODAY...BUT FOR
THE WALDO IT DOESN`T TAKE MUCH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS...SO THIS AREA WILL
BE MONITORED CLOSELY.  LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS WALDO WILL BE MISSED
TODAY.

FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND MONSOON
PLUME APPEARS TO GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE SOUTH...THOUGH AT LEAST SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.  MOISTURE RETURN BEHIND THE
FRONT LOOKS MEAGER...SO OVERALL...IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DAY OF
MAINLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  IF DEW POINTS CAN INCREASE INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 50S AS NAM12 SUGGESTS...WE COULD SEE ANOTHER STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DAY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS
AGAIN.  HAVING A HARD TIME BUYING THE 100+ TEMPERATURES ADVERTISED
BY GUIDANCE FOR PUB.  SOME LOWER 100S OUT ON THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PLAINS LOOK REASONABLE...BUT KEPT TEMPERATURES A TAD LOWER FOR PUB
AS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING TOO HOT LATELY AND EASTERLY WINDS DON`T
USUALLY BODE FOR SUCH WARM TEMPERATURES.  AS FOR FLASH FLOOD THREAT
ON THE BURN SCARS...THIS STILL LOOKS RATHER LOW AT THIS POINT. -KT

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A BROAD...HOT (600DM) UPPER HIGH
CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE STATE WITH THE MAIN MONSOONAL MOISTURE
PLUME BEING SHUNTED INTO THE DESERT SW THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND
WESTERN COLORADO...AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. CONVECTION TO BE ON THE WANE TUESDAY EVENING WITH
GFS LIKELY OVERDONE IN ITS QPF FIELD...THOUGH HAVE KEPT SOME
ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE SW AND CENTRAL MTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH BREEZY EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH
ENOUGH MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THE HIGH...ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
STORMS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
ACROSS THE SW AND CENTRAL MTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATING CAP TO HOLD ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
THOUGH HAVE KEPT SLIGHT POPS IN PLACE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WITH
MORE CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER AND DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLOW...HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO BE A TAD COOLER ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE AREA DESPITE
THE UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...UPPER HIGH PROGGED TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE SOUTH AND
WEST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE
REMAINING WITHIN THE DEVELOPING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
STATE. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS
THE HIGH TERRAIN ON THURSDAY WITH A FEW STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH ANOTHER WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. MUCH OF THE SAME EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES TO BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTH AND WEST
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WITH BROAD NORTHWEST DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
STATE AS AN UPPER TROUGH CARVES OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.
THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO DRY OUT THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPEHRE
WITH OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS KEEPING AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. WITH THAT SAID...SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
INCREASING CONCERNS FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  AN ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KALS
AND KCOS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 KTS.  A STRONG STORM OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS TO THE EAST OF KLHX WHERE
ERRATIC GUSTS TO 50 KTS AND HAIL NEARING 1 INCH IN DIAMETER WILL BE
POSSIBLE.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  A
FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS ON TUESDAY BRINGING A
NORTH WIND SHIFT AROUND 15 KTS AT KCOS AND KPUB BETWEEN 15Z AND 16Z.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH MAIN THREATS CONTINUING TO BE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS.
HOWEVER A STRONG STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF KLHX
WHERE SOME HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OVER 50 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...KT