Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 010522
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1122 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

CURRENTLY...JUST ISOLD STORMS OVER SE CO...AS EXPECTED MAINLY OVER
THE MTS. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE OR NO ACTIVITY OVER MOST OF
THE SE PLAINS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WILL LEAVE LOW POPS OVER
THE PLAINS FOR NOW...AROUND 10 PERCENT...WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH NW FLOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STEERING
FLOW FOR STORMS LOOKS PRETTY WEAK...AND CURRENTLY STORMS ARE NOT
MOVING MUCH AND ARE SHORT-LIVED. SLIGHTLY STRONGER CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE RATON MESA AREA AND LAS ANIMAS COUNTY. SOME
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE HRRR...PROGS ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT OVER THE OK PANHANDLE AREA...BUT IMPACT ON SE CO WOULD
LIKELY BE MINIMAL UNLESS THIS COMPLEX SHIFTS A BIT FARTHER TO THE
NORTH.

THE TREND FOR WEAK AND ISOLD CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW AS MOST OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS TRAPPED TO OUR SOUTH
BENEATH A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE.

AFTER THE UPPER DISTURBANCE TO OUR NE MOVES ON TO THE MISS VALLEY
THIS EVENING...FORCING FOR STORMS WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH TOMORROW.
BEST CHANCES FOR STRONGER CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160 IN
THE AFTERNOON. STORM COVERAGE OVER THE ERN PLAINS LOOKS ISOLD AT
BEST. ONE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE OVER THE RATON AND SRN ZONES SUCH AS
BACA COUNTY...COULD ALSO SEE A FEW STORMS DRIFT OFF THE SRN FRONT
RANGE BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BOTH STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF
STORMS LOOKS FAIRLY LIMITED. WILL SEE A MODEST RISE IN TEMPS ALOFT
WITH THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH...SO TEMPS TOMORROW SHOULD BE
RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMS...OR UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S FOR THE PLAINS
AND 70S HIGH VALLEYS. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

UPPER RIDGE AND MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH THE MOST ACTIVE DAY EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS COLORADO. BOTH NAM AND GFS TREND THE DEW POINTS DOWN ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...MIXING THEM OUT INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
I-25 CORRIDOR/ADJACENT PLAINS...WITH 50S+ LINGERING NEAR THE CO KS
BORDER. SO GREATEST MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL KEEP FLASH FLOODING
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IF THEY IMPACT
BURN SCARS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY SPREAD INTO THE ADJACENT
PLAINS...BUT LOOK MORE ISOLATED AT THIS POINT. WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AS SHORTWAVE WILL STILL BE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE
RIDGE ACROSS CO.

MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE BY MONDAY WITH GFS SUGGESTING DRIER
CONDITIONS SPREADING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BEHIND THE TROF. ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER WITH THE WAVE
MOVING THROUGH CO...SO KEEPS HIGHER DEW POINTS ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND SHIFTS FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SE MTS AND PLAINS.
NAM12 SEEMS TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE GFS. LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES
MONDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN AN MCS DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE
ACROSS EASTERN CO...SHIFTING INTO KS DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
HOURS. EXACTLY WHERE THIS MCS DEVELOPS/TRACKS IS STILL UNCERTAIN
AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL PUT SOME SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE SE
PLAINS MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER AT THIS POINT...THOUGH SE FLOW WILL
KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SE PLAINS WITH A DIFFUSE DRY
LINE WHICH MAY PROVIDE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WITHIN THE
RIDGE FOR ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD BE ON A DOWNTURN.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STILL LOOKS FAIRLY DRY AT THIS
POINT...EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. MONSOON PLUME RETURNS BEGINNING EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY
OF NEXT WEEK...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL...WITH ECMWF A LITTLE
QUICKER THAN GFS. THIS SHOULD INCREASE POPS AGAIN...AND TAKE THE
EDGE OFF TEMPERATURES TOWARDS LATE WEEK. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND
KPUB TAF SITES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$



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