Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 231732
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1132 AM MDT Tue May 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 338 AM MDT Tue May 23 2017

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis is indicating
strong northerly flow aloft across the region, with an embedded
speed max translating south, across south central Colorado early
this morning. GOES-16 satellite imagery and KPUX radar is indicating
cloud enhancement and rain and snow (generally aoa 8000 feet)
showers associated with this disturbance across the Upper Arkansas
River Valley and San Luis Valley, spreading south and east over the
Southeast Mountains and far Southeast Plains at this time.

Through daybreak, the embedded speed max will continue to dig south
and east into north central New Mexico, with showers over the San
Luis Valley and Southeast Mountains diminishing and ending from
north to south through 12z. Will see some light snow accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches across eastern portions of the San Luis Valley, the
Wet Mountain Valley and the Sangre de Cristo Mountains through
daybreak.

For the rest of today and tonight, strong northerly flow aloft will
continue across the region today and slowly moderate into tonight,
as an embedded jet core, digging down the backside of building upper
ridge across the Great Basin, continues to translate across the
Northern Rockies and into the Northern High Plains. Drier air
embedded within the flow will continue to work into the region
through the day, however, could still see a few isolated showers
developing through the late morning and afternoon across the central
and eastern mts, and along the PalmerDvd and northern portions of
the far Southeast Plains, though the best chances will remain north
of the area where more favorable jet dynamics will be located.
Breezy northerly winds of 15 to 30 mph can be expected over the
higher terrain through the day, with winds mixing down across the
lower elevations through the late morning and afternoon. Today still
looks to be the coolest day of the week, with highs in the 50s and
60s across the lower elevations and mainly in the 40s across the
higher terrain. Some warming is noted aloft through tonight, with
overnight lows generally in the 30s and 40s areawide.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 338 AM MDT Tue May 23 2017

An upper level ridge over the area on Wed will result in dry weather
and above average temps.  Late Wed night, an upper trof moving
through MT and WY will bring westerly flow aloft over CO and is
expected to bring a slight chance for some showers to the central
mtns.  On Thu a front will move southward through eastern CO
bringing some gusty north to northeast winds.  There will also be a
better chance for pcpn acrs the area on Thu, but temps are expected
to still be above average.  Some showers, especially over the mtns,
will still be possible during the overnight hours and into Fri
morning.

A new upper level trof is expected to drop south into the Great
Basin by late Fri.  Unsettled conditions will continue on Fri with
isolated to scattered showers and tstms , especially over the mtns
and mostly north of highway 50 over the southeast plains.  Temps are
expected to be a little cooler on Fri.  The upper level trof is then
expected to be over the area on Sat, with the potential for more
widespread pcpn.  The forecast models are showing the possibility of
relatively significant pcpn along the eastern mtns and I-25
corridor, where the GFS shows QPF around 1 inch Sat afternoon,
however the ECMWF has around a quarter inch.

By Sun morning, most of the pcpn is forecast to move out of the
area. Sun a large upper level low is expected to be centered over
northern MN and then moves over the upper peninsula of MI on Mon. On
the back side of this upper low a couple disturbances are expected
to move south over eastern CO bringing periods of pcpn, especially
over and near the higher terrain in the afternoon and evening hours.
High temps Sun and Mon are expected to be below average.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Tue May 23 2017

VFR conditions at all taf sites today and tonight, with N-NW
winds gusting to 25 kts at times until early evening. Ern plains
may see some brief -shra or sprinkles this afternoon as weak wave
moves by, but conditions should remain VFR.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...PETERSEN



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