Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 160530
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1030 PM MST Sun Jan 15 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 920 PM MST Sun Jan 15 2017

Updated to replace winter storm warning over the far southeast
plains with a winter weather advisory. Also, canceled advisories
in Chaffee county and western Lake county. Modified snow
accumulations for tonight in some locations. Seeing more echoes
developing on radar over western portions of the southeast plains
including the I-25 corridor. Models are not in good agreement with
regards to forecast snow amounts for tonight, with the NAM being
the most heavy handed. The NAM has a couple inches falling later
tonight over El Paso and Pueblo counties and 2-3 inches over the
San Luis Valley. The GFS does not have as much in these areas,
but the GFS does show a little more snow falling over the far
eastern plains than the NAM, although it is only 1-2 inches. There
is the potential for even light snow accumulations to create an
impact on driving conditions across much of the area tonight and
Monday morning, so will keep highlights in place.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 250 PM MST Sun Jan 15 2017

...Winter weather will continue to impact southern CO with freezing
rain changing over to snow across far easter plains this evening...

Upper low is starting to pivot northeastward into southeast NM with
an extensive area of precipitation spreading northward across NM and
eventually  into southern CO.  With the upper low still so far south
of the CWA this afternoon...precipitation has been coming in waves
as expected...and tend to weaken as it lifts northward. However...as
the upper low lifts into the TX panhandle and into NW OK/SW KS by
12z...this will bring a period of increased lift as the deformation
band lifts northward. Main question will be how far west this
deformation band will impact. NAM is a bit stronger/farther west
with the upglide which puts more impact into the upper Arkansas
river valley of Fremont...Chaffee counties tonight.  GFS is a bit
more stingy with snowfall up that way. Conceptually...as upper low
lifts northward...we could see H7 winds shift a bit more east to
northeasterly...which would provide a window for upslope into this
region...so will hold on to advisories for Chaffee county...though
amounts may come up on the low side of advisory criteria. Will take
down advisories for Lake county as most of this area should see sub
advisory numbers. Will also be downgrading the La Garitas to a
Winter Wx Advisory as don`t think snowfall rates will be great
enough to warrant keeping the warning going.  The Eastern San Juans
will maintain as a Winter Storm Warning as a heavier round of snow
moves in this evening.

Across the plains...should see the freezing rain switch over to snow
through early evening.  Fortunately the warm ground has prevented
much from sticking to pavement surfaces...though as evening
approaches and temperatures cool a bit...there is still some time
for roads to ice up.  Should see the switch over to all snow by 6-8
PM along the CO/KS border.  Should see an additional 2 to 4 inches
of snow on top of what has already fallen across the plains
overnight...with 3 to 6 inches across the southern I-25
corridor/northern Raton Ridge. Southeast mountains (Wets/Sangres)
should see additional amounts in the 4-8 inch range...though heavier
amounts of up to a foot will be possible across the higher peaks.
Continental Divide should an additional 4-8 inches...though locally
up to 10 for the southern sections of the eastern San Juans.  Pikes
Peak will see a wide range...with an additional 2 to 7 inches...with
most of this falling during the overnight/early morning hours when
winds shift around to the NE. And the I-25 corridor from Pueblo to
Colorado Springs will see anywhere from 1 to 4 inches. Again...this
will be on the low side of advisory criteria for El Paso and Pueblo
counties...but with the likelihood that roads will become slick
again overnight...will keep advisories going based on travel
impacts.

All highlights still progged to come down at 18z.  Snow will
continue through the day as wrap around precipitation continues on
the back side of the departing system.  However...temperatures look
too warm at this point to extend them through the afternoon...and
suspect that roads will melt off during the day. Otherwise...kept
temperatures on the cool side of guidance for tomorrow.  -KT

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 250 PM MST Sun Jan 15 2017

Monday night-Tuesday...Broad weak upper trough continues to slowly
translate south and east across the central Rockies Monday night
with generally weak northerly flow aloft developing across the
region through the day Tuesday. Slower ejection of said trough will
keep generally light snow in the forecast through the evening, with
best coverage over and near the southern mountains, where and
additional 1 to 2 inches will be possible. With ample moisture in
place and weak flow aloft, cant rule some areas of fog across the
area Monday night, especially across the high mountain valleys.
Subsident northerly flow to allow for clearing skies through the day
Tuesday with temperatures warming to at or slightly above seasonal
averages.

Wednesday-Thursday...Flow aloft becomes more west to northwest
through the day on Wednesday and more southwest through the day on
Thursday, as another eastern pacific system start to dig into the
Great Basin. This pattern will keep the area generally dry and warm,
with at to above seasonal temperatures expected through Thursday.

Thursday night-Sunday...Southwest flow aloft increasing through
Friday as one upper wave lifts out across the Rockies bringing
good chances of precipitation to the ContDvd Friday into Saturday,
and a few possible showers and cooler temperatures to the rest of the
area on Saturday. Another system eastern Pacific system looks to take
aim to the area later Sunday into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1022 PM MST Sun Jan 15 2017

Upper low over the Texas Panhandle tonight will slowly eject to
the northeast over the next 24 hrs, and is expected to continue
wrapping moisture back into the forecast area tonight through
about midday Monday before things start to shut down.

KCOS and KPUB: Expect IFR to LIFR conditions to persist due to low
clouds, fog and bands of snow through approx 18z. Improving
conditions afterward, with VFR expected by 00z.

KALS: Current VFR conditions are expected to degrade to IFR to
LIFR by 09z, then persisting through 18z. VFR conditions expected
after 18z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST Monday for COZ065>067-
069>071-076>078-081>086-089-093-095>099.

Winter Storm Warning until 11 AM MST Monday for COZ068-072>075-
079-080-087-088-094.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE



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