Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 221753

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1153 AM MDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Issued at 1127 AM MDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Timing of upper trof axis and drying coming in behind its
associated secondary surface surge will be key in determining
where heaviest rain will fall today. Still looks like southern
mountains south and west of a line from Creede to Colorado City
to Branson will have the best chance for heavy rainfall today.
Have issued a flash flood watch for the mountain areas within this
boundary. Opted to include the Wet mountains as well, as this
area will be very close to the threat area and the Junkins burn
scar doesn`t take much to flood. Hayden Pass burn scar is also
included...but this zone was included mainly for southern portions
of the northern Sangre De Cristos. Thunderstorms farther north
should be less widespread today...but even for these will have the
potential to produce heavy rainfall. So really all burn scars will
be somewhat susceptible today. Watch runs from noon until 9
PM...but may be able to be cancelled sooner for northern sections
of the area as activity shifts southward with time. -KT


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 347 AM MDT Sat Jul 22 2017

...Looking Much Drier For Today Than Earlier Thought...


Regional radars not showing much in the way of precip at 3 am. In
CO, a few showers were still noted in far NE CO otherwise it was dry
from a radar perspective. The cold front has moved well into NM. Sfc
obs show its still moist over the region with L60 dwpts in ne CO and
50s in se CO. 40 and 50F dwpts were noted in the mtns. Water vapor,
especially the low level water vapor imagery from GOES 16, was
showing drying across se WY and far ne CO. This drying was
increasing in area and moving south.


Latest high res guidance and latest 06Z NAM have significantly
decreased the chances of rain over a good part of the region today.
At this time the best chance of rain will be down along the CO/NM
border, especially the San Juans and the east slopes of the southern
Sangre de Cristo mtns/Raton Mesa region. Farther north, the HRRR has
dramatically cut back on precip chances, in matter of fact, it keeps
the I-25 corridor completely dry from about Walsenburg northward to
the Palmer Divide. This is likely a bit too dry as I do think we
will see some precip today, but not nearly as much as earlier
thought. Given the drier solutions, the chance of heavy rain and
associated flash flooding on the burn scars has significantly
decreased today, especially for areas N of a line from Creede to
Colorado City. Farther south, locally heavy convective rainfall is
likely. (Although the threat of heavy rain has decreased over the
Junkins, Hayden Pass and Waldo burn scars, the threat is not zero.
Any isolated convective storm over a burn scar can cause serious

Temps today will be about 8-10F cooler on the the plains then the
last several days. Expect highs in the 80s for most of El Paso
county and the plains adjacent to the mtns, and 90s farther east.
60s and 70s are expected in the mtns.


Best chance of precip will be down along the CO/NM border and it
may last into the early morning hours before ending. best chance
for clouds to linger will be south of US-50. Min temps should cool
into the 50s and 60s plains with 30s to L50s over the higher
terrain. /Hodanish

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 347 AM MDT Sat Jul 22 2017

The plume of monsoon moisture stays south and west of the area
Sunday with a few thunderstorms forming in and near the
mountains, but considerably less thunderstorms at the lower
elevations. High temperatures remain in the 80s on the plains on

The generally drier conditions persists through Monday. On
Tuesday, the upper high becomes reestablished over the southern
plains. This allows for increasing southwesterly flow
aloft, bringing mid and upper level moisture back into the area.
High temperatures gradually warm back into the 90s for highs on
the plains.

Thunderstorm chances increase again for the lower elevations by
the middle of the week although there is some uncertainty in the
position of the upper ridge and therefore uncertainty in where the
monsoon plume sets up. Overall, not a lot of change in the
forecast for the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1127 AM MDT Sat Jul 22 2017

System coming through the area today will generate scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms across the mountains today with
the greatest coverage south of highway 50. KALS will see the best
chance for TSRA impacting the terminal after 21-22z with threat
continuing into the evening hours. Brief MVFR cigs/vis with TSRA and
localized gusts up to 40 kts will be possible. KPUB will see a
brief window between 21 and 23Z though certainty is a little less
here. KCOS will see less of a chance so will restrict mention to a
VCTS during the early-mid afternoon. Should see activity shift
southward during the evening with improving conditions expected
through the evening for the taf sites. -KT


Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ067-068-



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