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000
FXUS65 KPUB 301750
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1150 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1116 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY. A
DISTURBANCE IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CWA. AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION...ANTICIPATE AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STRONGER
CONVECTION WILL BE OVER AND NEAR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. LATEST
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER SUMMIT
COUNTY...MOVING INTO PARK COUNTY. ANY SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. BELIEVE
CONVECTION WILL START DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. ENOUGH CLEARING WILL MOVE INTO PIKES PEAK REGION
TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS BY MID
AFTERNOON. GIVEN AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES...FLASH FLOODING IS STILL A THREAT.
AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST...THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVIER RAINS MOVES SOUTHWARD OVER AND NEAR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
FURTHER EAST...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN STABLE AND HAVE
CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR KIOWA...BENT...PROWERS AND
BACA COUNTIES. SOME SHOWERS TO STORMS MAY OCCUR IN THESE
COUNTIES...BUT DOUBT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS.
DECIDED TO KEEP WATCH FOR I25 CORRIDOR AND NEARBY COUNTIES TO THE
EAST AS SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO PROPAGATE OFF
OF THE MOUNTAINS.

ON THURSDAY...THE AMOUNT OF ATMOSPHERIC WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY.
STORMS MAY STILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT DO NOT
BELIEVE THREAT IS WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WATCH. WILL STILL
HAVE TO MONITOR BURN SCARS AND OTHER AREAS VERY SUSCEPTIBLE TO
FLASH FLOODING WITH ONLY LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. --PGW--

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 525 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT TERM METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS INCLUDE HYDRO
ISSUES...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL AS POCKETS OF PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NEAR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AND
TEMPERATURES. IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN LOCATIONS OF THE CWFA FROM THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

CWFA CURRENTLY NOTING GENERALLY DECREASING PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY
OVER EASTERN PORTIONS WITH EARLY MORNING EASTERN COLORADO SURFACE
DEW POINTS GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S RANGE.

HAVE EXTENDED EXISTING FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST DISTRICT UNTIL 03Z THURSDAY...WITH PRIMARY
PRECIPITATION FOCUS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES/FOOTHILLS AND
PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR INTO THIS EVENING.

ALSO CONTINUED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO PLAINS INTO THIS EVENING AS EVEN MODEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ON TOP OF THE IMPRESSIVE RAIN AMOUNTS THAT OCCURRED DURING THE
PREVIOUS FEW DAYS COULD CAUSE HYDRO ISSUES OVER THE EXISTING
SATURATED SOILS. PLEASE NOTE THAT IF THE AIRMASS IS TOO STABLE TO
SUPPORT HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY...THE FLASH FLOOD
HIGHLIGHT MAY BE TAKEN DOWN LATER TODAY.

FINALLY...WELL BELOW LATE JULY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER EASTERN SECTIONS TODAY(WITH FORECAST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES PRIMARILY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO THE MID
70S)...WHILE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA SHOULD EXPERIENCE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW
LATE JULY CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 525 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

HYDRO ISSUES...LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND TEMPERATURES
REMAIN MAIN METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES DURING THE LONGER TERM.

RECENT LONGER TERM FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND COMPUTER
SIMULATIONS KEEP MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE MAJORITY
OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT INTO FRIDAY WITH SOME DRYING
INDICATED FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA AT 12Z THURSDAY
SLOWLY SHIFTS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS/COLORADO REGION FROM THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ENOUGH DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE(AS EVIDENCED BY FORECAST
PRECIPITABLE WATERS RUNNING FROM 1.00 TO 1.40 INCHES) REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA INTO FRIDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW
LOCALIZED STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED HYDRO/FLASH
FLOODING ISSUES TO CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THEN DROP TO UNDER ONE INCH AT
TIMES FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK(BEFORE INCREASING
AGAIN BY NEXT TUESDAY)...ALLOWING FOR DECREASED PRECIPITATION
ACTIVITY DURING THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME-FRAME.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE BASICALLY PROJECTED TO RUN BELOW LATE
JULY/EARLY AUGUST CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FROM THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THEN RETURNING TO NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOIGCAL AVERAGES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

FOR KCOS AND KPUB...MOIST LOWER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEARBY
MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
STORMS TO MOVE ONTO THE NEARBY PLAINS. IN TAFS HAVE VCTS AND VCSH
TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL. OVERNIGHT...ANTICIPATE LOWER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WITH THE ABUNDANT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING ION
THE REGION DUE TO WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW.

FOR KALS...MORE TYPICAL MONSOON TYPE PERIOD WITH THE THREAT FOR
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORMS. TAF CONTAINS VCTS TO COVER
THIS POTENTIAL. THREAT FOR LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LOW
TONIGHT...AND DID NOT INCLUDE SUB VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT IN THE
TAF.  --PGW--

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 520 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

IN ADDITION TO THE HYDRO ISSUES ADDRESSED IN THE SHORT-TERM
DISCUSSION ABOVE...LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF ONE
INCH AN HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION TO FLASH
FLOODING CONCERNS INTO THIS EVENING OVER AREA BURN SCARS...WILL
ALSO NEED TO MONITOR LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ON TOP OF RECENTLY SATURATED SOILS. AS TOUCHED UPON EARLIER...ONE
POTENTIAL LIMITATION TO STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD BE THE LACK OF INSTABILITY OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT. AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CLOSELY.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ072>089-093-
094.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PGW
AVIATION...PGW