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000
FXUS65 KPUB 151024
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
424 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

MAJORITY OF FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY GRACED BY GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES IN COMBINATION WITH BELOW SEASONAL EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES
AND LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS NEARING 20 KNOTS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY OVER
SECTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS.

TRANQUIL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
REGION.  LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT.

IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL METEOROLOGICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER BACA COUNTY...HOWEVER RECENT SNOW UP 4
INCHES DURING THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS OVER PORTIONS OF BACA COUNTY AS
WELL AS RECENT/LATEST LAND AGENCY INFORMATION THAT FUELS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR LARGE FIRE GROWTH OVER FIRE WEATHER ZONES 232...233
AND 237(OTERO...EASTERN LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES RESPECTIVELY)
WILL PRECLUDE ANY NIGHT FOR FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

FINALLY...WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER
THE FORECAST DISTRICT WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT RETURNING TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL MID-APRIL AVERAGES OVER
MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

...MORE BENEFICIAL PRECIP FOR MOST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY...

A RATHER INNOCUOUS WEATHER SYSTEM PROMISES TO BRING MORE BENEFICIAL
PRECIP TO THE REGION WED AND WED NITE. MOST AREAS WILL SEE PRECIP.
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON THE E FACING SLOPES OF THE MTNS
AND ADJ I-25 CORRIDOR REGION. A BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIP WILL LIKELY
OCCUR OVER THE PLAINS WED NITE. THE C MTN REGION WILL ALSO SEE
PRECIP. AREAS WHICH MAY NOT SEE MUCH PRECIP INCLUDE THE SW MTNS AND
SAN LUIS VALLEY. SIGNIFICANT HEAVY WET SNOW WILL OCCUR AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE S MTNS/PIKES PEAK REGION.

BY THE BEGINNING OF THIS TIME PD...12Z WED...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
CROSSING THE PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL REACH THE CO/NM BORDER BY LATE
MORNING...WITH FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMING UPSLOPE OVER THE PLAINS AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. IN THE MEANTIME...A DISTURBANCE WILL BE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE PACIFIC NW...AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIP TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE C MTN REGION DURING THE MORNING.

BY LATER WED AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD EAST AND
DEVELOP OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION. BY EVENING...THE PRECIP OVER
THE I-25 CORRIDOR/S MTN REGION WILL BE AT ITS HEAVIEST AS ISENTROPIC
LIFT ALONG WITH WELL DEFINED 700 MB CONVERGENCE AFFECTS THE REGION.
ALL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING WELL DEFINED "QPF MAXIMUMS" ALONG THE I-25/S
MTN AREAS AND HAVE NO REASON TO BELIEVE WHY THIS WILL NOT VERIFY.
MODELS SHOW OVER 1/2" OF LIQUID AND THESE VALUES ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS NOT AS COLD AS THE ONE THAT JUST
WENT BY...SO WE WILL NOT SEE AS MUCH SNOW BELOW ~6500 FEET AS WE DID
THE OTHER DAY. HOWEVER...WE WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOW GENERALLY
ABOVE 7500 FEET...WITH ANOTHER FOOT OR MORE POSSIBLE IN THE PIKE
PEAK/WET MTN/SANGRE DE CRISTO MTN REGIONS. ITS A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO
GO WITH HILITES...BUT WINTER STORM WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED
LATER TODAY FOR THE S MTN AREAS. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT NOT
MUCH WIND IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY MOVE QUICKLY OUT OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT SYSTEM...A BROAD PACIFIC TROUGH COMING IN FROM SOUTHERN
CALIF...WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CONTDVD BY MIDDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERY WEATHER TO THE
REGION FOR THE WEEKEND..ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE
SEASONABLE.

EARLY NEXT WEEK WX IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND SEASONABLE. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

DRY NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL UPPER FLOW WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO
BE EXPERIENCED OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...77