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000
FXUS65 KPUB 221739
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1139 AM MDT THU SEP 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 346 AM MDT Thu Sep 22 2016

Currently...a few light rain showers will continue over the southern
Sangre de Cristo mountains, east into Las Animas County, before
dissipating around sunrise.  Elsewhere, dry conditions prevail with
temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Today...a large upper level low is forecast to strengthen and move
into the Great Basin by this afternoon.  This will continue to put
southern Colorado in broad southwesterly flow aloft.  Water vapor
imagery indicates moisture will be more limited today, with less
cloud cover expected.  This should allow for temperatures to warm
into the mid 80s to mid 90s across the region.  Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop by early afternoon over the
mountains, and should spread east into the I-25 corridor by late
afternoon.  The primary threats from thunderstorms will be gusty
outflow winds to 45 mph, small hail and lightning.  Fire weather
conditions will also need to be monitored for this afternoon across
the plains.  Winds will be gusty out of the southwest, but humidity
values are expected to remain above 20 percent.

Tonight...the upper low will shift east into Utah with continued
southerly flow across Colorado.  Showers and thunderstorms, ongoing
during the evening, will lift northeast out of the eastern plains
and dissipate through midnight.  Dry conditions are expected to
prevail over the plains once storms dissipate and move off as we
head into Friday morning.  Across the continental divide, moisture
and favorable upslope flow will keep showers and thunderstorms going
all night, with an increase in coverage late as upper level energy
works into western Colorado.  An inch or two of snow will be
possible over the continental divide peaks by Friday morning.
Elevated winds and clouds across the region should keep overnight
lows in the 60s over the lower elevations. Mozley

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 346 AM MDT Thu Sep 22 2016

A strong trough will move across the region on Friday. This will
bring windy conditions to the area along with a chance of a few
strong storms along the CO/KS border. It will be cooler this weekend
with a chance of showers over parts of the region. A hard freeze
is likely for the San Luis Valley Saturday morning. Drier and more
tranquil weather will prevail next week.

Friday...

This will be the most active day of the period. Gusty winds will
prevail across the region...and critical fire weather conditions
will be in place as lower RH values combine with the wind to permit
for extreme fire behavior to occur. The best chance for the lowest
RH values will be over the greater I-25 corridor region as critical
RH values (<15%) will likely occur. One or two strong to severe
storms will be possible along the border late Friday and Friday
evening. Given the T/Td spreads out east...storms will be high based
and will be racing north-northeast...so expect strong winds to be
the primary severe weather threat.

Some snow will be possible...especially early Friday...mainly above
treeline in the mtns. The best chance will be along the contdvd.
Snow amounts will be light.

Saturday...

Quite a bit of dry air will be advected over the plains most of
saturday...so expect mostly sunny skies and cool weather across the
lower elevations. moisture will increase on the back side of the
low...and expect clouds and showers to increase by afternoon across
the central mtns.

Temps on Sat will be roughly 15F cooler than Friday.

Clouds will increase as usplope develops over the east slope of the
s mtns late in the day Sat into Sat nite. We may see some showers
develop along the mtns Sat nite.

We will likely see a hard freeze across the San Luis Valley
Saturday morning. Min temps will be in the 20s throughout the
valley.

Sunday...

This should be the coolest day of the extended period. Weak
troughieness over the region aloft and some upslope may keep clouds
along the mtns/plains interface a good part of the day. Depending on
how much instability can be realized...we may see some showers
across this region during the day. Expect highs to only reach into
the 60s across most of the plains and valleys. Some snow showers
will be likely across the s mtns.

Next Week...

Simulations show some differences. GFS is rather dry throughout next
week while the EC guidance indicates somewhat of a more troughieness
pattern over the region through the week. For now decided to keep
the area dry. Even if the EC verifies...the forcing appears to be
rather weak. Temps will slowly warm up through the week.
/Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM MDT Thu Sep 22 2016

VFR conditions expected at COS, PUB and ALS over the next 24
hours. Breezy south to southwest winds of 15-25kts can be expected
at terminals this afternoon. Scattered showers and storms remain
possible across the area through the evening, with the probability
too low to include storms moving across the terminals. South to
southwest flow aloft will increase across the area overnight as a
strong jet core moves overhead. This will keep the potential for
turbulence across the area through the period, along with the
possiblity of breezy southerly winds staying up at ALS through
the overnight hours. Should see COS and PUB mixing out relatively
early tomorrow morning.

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
for COZ227>232.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MW