Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 211734
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1134 AM MDT THU JUL 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 349 AM MDT Thu Jul 21 2016

Currently...The upper ridge axis was located over western Kansas and
the Tx and OK panhandles, continuing to draw monsoon moisture up
across AZ and UT and into CO. Temps across the eastern plains were
in the 60 to lower 70s as of 330 am, while the high valleys have
dipped into the 50s.

Today and Tonight...The upper ridge of high pressure will continue
over the central US through the short term, while ever so gradually
spreading to the west. Meanwhile, an upper trough will move into the
Pacific NW this evening. This upper pattern will continue to keep
Colorado on the western side of the ridge, with the stream of
monsoon moisture pouring into the western half of the state.
Convection is expected to develop over the higher terrain by late
morning, then spread across the lower elevations between 19-20z.
Thunderstorms will be scattered to likely over the mts, and isolated
elsewhere. The main threats from any storms that develop will be
gusty winds to 50 mph, small hail up to 1/2 inch in diameter and
lightning. Once again a hot day is forecast, with max temps in the
90s to around 100 F for the plains, and 80s to around 90 F for the
high valleys. Moore

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 349 AM MDT Thu Jul 21 2016

Monsoon tap will continue into early next week bringing daily
thunderstorm chances to the mountains, and more isolated activity
across the plains.  Main thunderstorm threats will remain locally
heavy rainfall, gusty outflow winds up to 50 mph, lightning and some
small hail.  Greater CAPE appears to stay to the north of the
forecast area on Friday, but we may have to watch northern
fringes of the CWA Friday afternoon/evening for a strong storm or
two.

The southern U.S. upper high gets cut down as a series of
upper troughs move across the northern Rockies Friday night
through the weekend. The first trof sends a cold front through the
southeast plains on Saturday which stalls across southern portions
of the area during the afternoon. This will provide a focus for
more widespread convection across the plains through Saturday
evening. Still some uncertainties regarding extent of low level
moisture return, but conceptually deep layer shears should be on
the increase with easterly sfc flow beneath modest westerly flow
aloft. Thus a marginal risk for severe weather may be in place
across the plains. This will continue into Sunday with better low
level moisture return and a potential day 2 set up. Temperatures
should drop back to near normal for most areas by Sunday.

A gradual warming and drying trend returns through the first half of
next week...as the upper high rebuilds across the western US.  Still
some remnant monsoon moisture over the area to warrant isolated to
scattered pops through Tuesday. However, atmosphere really starts
to dry out and heat up into Wednesday as position of the upper
high to our west serves to shunt the monsoon plume south of the
area. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Thu Jul 21 2016

Little change in the weather pattern today and tonight, with VFR
conditions at all taf sites the next 24 hrs. Isolated tsra will
again develop over the higher terrain this afternoon, then move
toward the TAF sites beginning 20-21z producing intermittent MVFR
conditions through 03z. Will carry a VCTS mention all tafs, though
at KPUB impact of any convection may be limited to gusty outflow
winds.

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...PETERSEN



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