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000
FXUS65 KPUB 281731
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1031 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

...SNOW SHOWERS CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...DRY AND MILD DOWN BELOW...

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
COLORADO ROCKIES THIS MORNING...PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...MAINLY NORTH OF MONARCH PASS.  THE PEAK WINDOW
FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE THIS MORNING...WITH ACTIVITY TAPERING
OFF IN THE AFTERNOON.  FOR EVERYBODY ELSE...ANOTHER DRY AND MILD
DAY. NOT THE RECORD WARMTH OF YESTERDAY...BUT STILL 15 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE.  HIGHS TODAY WILL INCLUDE 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS...40S
AND 50S IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...AND 30S AND 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
VERY MILD BY LATE JANUARY STANDARDS.

TONIGHT...THE FIRST SIGNS OF A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
START TO APPEAR.  A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE
COLORADO PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF
NORTHERLY WINDS...COOLER AIR...AND POSSIBLY SOME LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
THE PLAINS BY THURSDAY MORNING.  THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER AND RIGHT NEAR THE MOUNTAINS BUT MOST
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. LW

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...INTERESTING HOW THINGS HAVE CHANGED IN
THE PAST 24 HRS.  GFS AND EC MODELS HAVE VERY SIMILAR SOLUTIONS FOR
THE INCOMING SYSTEM WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND LOCATION. LATEST
MODEL RUNS HAVE SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN A BIT...AND SWING THE UPPER
TROUGH A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN FIRST THOUGHT. SO...A SLOWER START
FOR PCPN ON THU SINCE THE TROUGH WILL BE JUST MOVING ONSHORE...WITH
JUST ISOLATED POPS OVER THE MTS THROUGH THE DAY BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED IN THE EVE. MODELS MOVE THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
CLOSED LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CA AND AZ ON FRI...AND THIS IS WHEN PCPN
STARTS TO BLOOM OVER THE CWA AND ESPECIALLY THE SW MTS/CONTDVD. THE
LOW STARTS TO SAG TO THE SOUTH ON SAT...BUT THE UPPER TROUGH MERGES
WITH ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPPING DOWN OUT OF CANADA AND
ACROSS MT AND WY...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE PCPN FOR THE CWA ALONG WITH
A REINFORCING BLAST OF COLDER AIR. TEMPS DO NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY
COLD THESE THREE DAYS...WITH MAX TEMPS EACH DAY IN THE 40S FOR THE
PLAINS...30S AND 40S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS...THE
MTS MAY SEE ANYWHERE FROM A FOOT TO A FOOT AND A HALF OF TOTAL NEW
SNOW FROM LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT. FOR NOW WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
SORT OF HIGHLIGHT...AND WILL LET THE DAY CREW HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AT
POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PCPN IS FORECAST TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF SUN AS NW FLOW ALOFT SETTLES IN. SUNDAY WILL BE THE
COLDEST DAY WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 30S.
OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED SNOW FOR THE CENTRAL MTS...CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY DRY WITH GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH MON AND
TUE. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1027 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KPUB THRU THE NEXT 24
HOURS...HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS
LOWERING. KCOS CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...WHEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND CIGS WL LOWER AND POSSIBLY
FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. BOTH KCOS AND KPUB WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE STRONG NW WINDS UNTIL EARLY EVENING.  KALS WILL HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AND CIGS WL LOWER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING
LATE.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...28