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000
FXUS65 KPUB 160532
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1132 PM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013

UPDATED FOR EXPIRATION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AND TO REFLECT
CURRENT POP AND TEMP TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013

CURRENTLY...

AT 2 PM...SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSRA WERE NOTED OVER THE MTNS AND
VALLEYS. A FEW SMALL ECHOES WERE ALSO BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY. MIXING HAS OCCURRED OVER MOST OF
THE HIGHER TRRN AND VALLEYS...ALTHOUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF TELLER COUNTY
STILL HAD 30+ DWPTS. THE PLAINS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR WERE IN THE
U30S...WITH 40S AND 50S OVER THE FAR E PLAINS.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT...

A FEW SVR STORMS ARE LIKELY OVER THE PLAINS TODAY. HI RES GUIDANCE
STILL CONTINUES TO DEVELOP STORMS OVER THE PALMER...INCLUDING EL
PASO COUNTY AND PUSHES THEM EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS.
WITH PRETTY GOOD MOISTURE OUT EAST WE SHOULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN OVER THE FAR E PLAINS. LATEST GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE BRUNT
OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION BY THE 20-21Z TIME
FRAME. IF WE CAN GET ENOUGH ACTIVITY OVER THE CO E PLAINS WE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO GET A GOOD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO PUSH DOWN THE PLAINS
ADVECTING BENEFICIAL LOW LEVEL (50S DWPTS) MOISTURE DOWN THE PLAINS.

MTNS WILL SEE DRY ISOLD TSRA THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

SUNDAY...

THINGS SHOULD BE A BIT LESS BUSIER TOMORROW AS BEST INSTABILITY WILL
BE OVER THE FAR SE PLAINS. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF
HIGH BASED ACTIVITY OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION BY MID AFTERNOON
WITH STRONGER STORMS FORMING OVER THE FAR E PLAINS BY LATE IN THE
DAY. DONT EXPECT TOO MUCH DIFFERENCE IN MAX TEMPS FROM TODAY..WITH
MAINLY TEMPS IN THE 90-95F RANGE. 80S VALLEYS AND EL PASO COUNTY.

OVER THE MTNS...EXPECT ISOLD LTG STRIKES WITH WITH GUSTY WINDS. NO
WETTING RAINS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TRRN. AM AFRAID WE MAY SEE
MORE FIRE STARTS WITH THE ISOLD CG STRIKES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.WETTER PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY THEN WARM AND DRY...

.SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPS TO THE
WEST OF COLORADO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS...WITH UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN COLORADO. AS A
RESULT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE ONTO THE EASTERN PLAINS AND
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. GRIDS FOLLOW THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FAIRLY
CLOSELY AS SUBTLE FEATURES WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE CHANCES OVER
THE PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. MCS IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY EVENING...AND OUTFLOW FROM THIS
MCS CAN FURTHER ENHANCE THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL MOVE EASTWARD
TO THE PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GFS HAS A MCS
MOVING OVER THE PLAINS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING AFTER
SUNRISE TUESDAY. MCS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT. GRIDS HAVE POPS LINGERING AFTER
SUNRISE TUESDAY NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE
COULD CHANGE AND STORMS COULD END EARLIER. CONTINUED DIURNAL POPS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WELL INTO THE EVENING AS GFS SUGGESTS ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER THE STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
HOPEFULLY...THE POSSIBLE MCS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE TO THE REGION. GFS HAS OVER AN INCH OF
MOISTURE COVERING MUCH OF THE PLAINS...WHILE MUCH OF THE SANGRES...WET
MOUNTAINS..AND SOUTHERN I25 CORRIDOR ARE MUCH DRIER. FURTHER
WEST...THE SHORTWAVES WILL NOT HAVE AN ABUNDANCE OF MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE. GREATEST PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL BE OVER AND
NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS
OVER THE REGION...WITH THE LEE TROUGH ALONG OR EAST OF THE KANSAS
BORDER. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS RETURN TO THE REGION WITH LOW
HUMIDITIES...WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS. A WEAK MONSOON LIKE PLUME DEVELOPS WHICH COULD BRING SOME
MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. MAIN EFFECT WOULD BE SOME HIGH
BASED STORMS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LEE TROUGH
MAY MOVE FAR ENOUGH WESTWARD FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER. CURRENTLY...BEST CHANCES FOR ANY STORMS NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER IS ON SATURDAY. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013

THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE
VCNTY OF KCOS AND KPUB AFTER 11Z. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE A
CEILING OF LOW CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE TWO
TERMINALS SO WL ONLY MENTION FEW OR SCT COVERAGE OF A LOW CLOUDS.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KPUB AND COS...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PROBABLY BEING IN THE VCNTY OF THE SITES
AFTER 20Z. KALS SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME ISOLD TSTMS IN THE VCNTY SUN AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...28