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621
FXUS65 KPUB 210527
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1127 PM MDT Sun Aug 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 236 PM MDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Showers and thunderstorms will be found mostly from around the I-25
corridor and westward this evening.  However, the HRRR does show
some isold pcpn being possible over some of the southeast plains.
Most of the pcpn is expected to end by midnight, but as a weather
disturbance moves northeastward through NM tonight and into southern
CO Mon morning, there could be some additional showers moving into
southern CO late tonight and into Mon morning.  Much of the pcpn
associated with the disturbance is expected to be near the southern
CO border, with the best chances probably acrs eastern Las Animas
and Baca counties.

Mon afternoon, showers and tstms are expected to develop over and
near the higher terrain, and along the I-25 corridor, while much of
the southeast plains is expected to be dry.  Temps on Mon are
expected to be a little cooler than today.

There is a lot of cloud cover that is expected to continue working
its way northward over CO tonight and into early Mon.  However, at
this time it appears that some drier air may work its way into
southern CO later in the morning to bring a decrease in the cloud
cover.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 236 PM MDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Not much change to the forecast thinking through the extended
period. Active weather looks likely through the middle part of the
work week before drying out towards the weekend.

Monday night...expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to be
ongoing across much of southern Colorado Monday evening, spreading
east across the Plains and dissipating late overnight. Models in
good agreement with a cold front dropping south behind an upper
disturbance late Monday night into Tuesday morning turning flow
northeasterly in the low levels.

Tuesday through Thursday...a weak upper level disturbance over
southern California will combine with high pressure over New
Mexico to force moisture and energy northward over Utah into
Colorado through the middle of the week. At the low levels, flow
looks northeasterly upslope on Tuesday, transitioning to
southeasterly upslope Wednesday and Thursday. The increased
moisture, disturbances aloft and upslope flow at the surface will
set the stage for potentially widespread showers and thunderstorms
across the region. Initial development is forecast over the
mountains, spreading east across the Plains through the late
afternoon and overnight hours. Main threats will be locally heavy
rainfall and lightning, but small hail and gusty outflow winds may
also be possible with stronger cores. Flash flooding may be
possible on area burn scars and over urban areas prone to
flooding. These will need to be monitored closely. Temperatures
will be cooler with highs generally in the lower to mid 80s
through this period.

Friday through Sunday...high pressure is forecast build northward
over the Great Basin while an upper trough takes shape over the
Ohio Valley. This will force flow aloft across Colorado out of the
northwest. Drier air will move into the area on Friday which will
limit thunderstorm development with more isolated activity
generally over the mountains. By Saturday and Sunday, much will
depend on how much moisture and energy move over the upper ridge
to the west and drops south across Colorado. Models hinting that
Saturday could see more widespread thunderstorm activity,
including possibly strong to severe, but this is a long ways out.
Mozley

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1124 PM MDT Sun Aug 20 2017

VFR conditions are expected to be predominant over the 3 taf sites
during the next 24 hours. Lots of mid level clouds will be around
until later in the morning tomorrow then clearing somewhat early
tomorrow afternoon. Thunderstorms will once again be possible by
later tomorrow afternoon and last into the evening hours. Brief
periods of mvfr could occur with the tsra. Winds will be light for
the most part but will be from a generally northerly component
for the next 24 hours.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH