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000
FXUS65 KPUB 031723
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1023 AM MST TUE DEC 3 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 AM MST TUE DEC 3 2013

ANOTHER UPDATE TO DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
NORTHERN EL PASO AND TELLER COUNTIES. ALSO REDUCED AND MODIFIED
THE TIMING OF POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN SANGRES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. -PJC

UPDATE ISSUED AT 844 AM MST TUE DEC 3 2013

QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE FOG FROM THE GRIDS FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
AND LOAD IN CURRENT OBS DATA. -PJC

UPDATE ISSUED AT 733 AM MST TUE DEC 3 2013

LOADED FRESH OBSERVATION AND SATELLITE DATA INTO SHORT TERM GRIDS.
NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. LW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM MST TUE DEC 3 2013

...HIGH WIND THREAT HAS DIMINISHED...SNOW AND ARCTIC COLD A LITTLE
DELAYED BUT STILL ON THE WAY...

ALL WIND REPORTS COMING IN THROUGH THE NIGHT HAVE BEEN BELOW WARNING
LEVELS.  BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...THEY SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW WARNING LEVELS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.  CONSEQUENTLY...THE
HIGH WIND WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS IN AND NEAR THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS HAS BEEN CANCELLED EARLY.  DESPITE CANCELLATION OF
THE WARNING...IT WILL STILL BE WINDY THIS MORNING...WITH GUSTS TO 60
MPH POSSIBLE IN A NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...AND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

THE APPROACH OF THE INCOMING PACIFIC SYSTEM AND ARCTIC COLD FRONT
HAS SLOWED A LITTLE.  WHILE SNOW WILL GET GOING IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING...IT NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD OFF OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS UNTIL THIS EVENING.  CONSEQUENTLY...THE
WINTER STORM WARNING STARTING THIS MORNING STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK UNTIL THIS EVENING.  THEN...IT LOOKS
LIKE ALL AREAS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL BE IN THE MIDST OF
A GOOD SNOWSTORM TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN SAWATCH AND
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH 10 TO 20
INCHES OVER THE WESTERN MOSQUITO AND LA GARITA RANGES.  THE HIGH
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS ADJACENT TO THESE AREAS COULD ALSO SEE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW...INCLUDING THE UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEY...THE WET
MOUNTAIN VALLEY AND WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY.

FOR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS...IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL NOT BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA UNTIL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OR MORE LIKELY THIS EVENING.  AT THAT TIME...VERY
COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO SPILL SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS...BANKING UP
AGAINST THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS.  UPSLOPE PROCESSES WILL
GET UNDERWAY BEHIND THE FRONT GRADUALLY COOLING THE AIRMASS AND
BRINGING IT TO SATURATION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN
OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF EL PASO AND TELLER COUNTIES FIRST...
PROBABLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS...AND THEN SPREAD SOUTH TO THE
REST OF EL PASO AND TELLER COUNTIES AND ALSO NORTHWESTERN FREMONT
COUNTY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  WHILE THE LATEST NAM HAS BACKED OFF ON
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THESE AREAS...THE LATEST GFS STILL LOOKS
PROMISING FOR POSSIBLE WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL.  CONSEQUENTLY...
THE WINTER STORM WATCH THAT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PIKES PEAK REGION
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE TIME BEING.

ELSEWHERE THROUGH TONIGHT...LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL THROUGH THE
NIGHT...BUT COLD AIR FILTERING SOUTH...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A COLD
AND POSSIBLY SNOWY WEDNESDAY. LW

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM MST TUE DEC 3 2013

A LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S. THROUGH
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER
THE MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT PERIODIC
WAVES OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL STREAM ACROSS COLORADO IN THE FLOW
ALOFT...WHILE AT THE SURFACE A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL ENSURE THAT
COLDER AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE
TUE NIGHT AND TEMPS RAPIDLY DROP...TEMPERATURE MOVEMENT ON WED WILL
BE SOMEWHAT STAGNANT AS WED WILL BE THE FIRST OF TRULY COLD DAYS FOR
THE CWA. WED AND WED EVE WILL ALSO SEE THE BEST SNOW CHANCES FOR THE
PALMER DVD...RAMPART RANGE AND ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. ACTIVITY
WILL TAPER OFF BY LATE THU MORN AND AFTN...BUT THU WILL BE EVEN
COLDER WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO PERHAPS THE MID TEENS NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER. THE WARMEST
SPOT WILL ACTUALLY BE IN THE SLV WITH A FORECAST HIGH IN THE 20S.
AS FOR SNOW CHANCES AND ONGOING HIGHLIGHTS...WARNING IN THE CENTRAL
MTS AND WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE SW MTS LOOKS GOOD THROUGH THE
DAY WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF 10-14 INCHES POSSIBLE. AS FOR
THE WATCH FOR EL PASO COUNTY AND THE RAMPART RANGE...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR 4 TO 8 INCHES THROUGH WED NIGHT BUT THE LENGTH OF
THE HIGHLIGHT IS A LITTLE SUSPECT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHAT TO
CONVERT THE WATCH TO...SO WILL LET THE DAY CREW HAVE ANOTHER MODEL
RUN TO LOOK AT BEFORE DECIDING.

FRIDAY...ONE LOBE OF ENERGY DEPARTS TO THE EAST LATE THU...AND FRI
LOOKS TO BE A DAY BETWEEN WITH JUST ISOLATED SNOW POPS FOR THE
CONTDVD...AND MAX TEMPS A BIT WARMER IN THE TEENS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE NEXT WAVE OF ENERGY STREAMS ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND ROCKY MT REGION ON SAT THROUGH SUN
MORNING...BRINGING ANOTHER HEALTHY SHOT OF SNOW FOR THE MTS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS IN THE 20S. BOTH THE
GFS AND EC MODELS INDICATE THAT MON WILL BE A MUCH DRIER DAY...WITH
TEMPS POTENTIALLY WARMING INTO THE UPPER 20S.

ONE LAST REMINDER...THIS WILL BE AN EXCEPTIONAL PERIOD OF COLD FOR
SOUTHERN COLORADO.  PREPARE YOUR HOME...AUTO OR BUSINESS. CHECK YOUR
FURNACE. INSULATE EXPOSED WATER PIPES. MAKE SURE YOUR CAR HAS A
STRONG BATTERY... PROPER ANTIFREEZE PROTECTION AND A GOOD SET OF ALL
SEASON OR SNOW TIRES. MAKE SURE YOUR KIDS DRESS WARMLY BEFORE
HEADING TO SCHOOL AND GIVE YOUR PETS ADEQUATE SHELTER FROM THE COLD.
THIS WILL BE AN UNUSUALLY LONG PERIOD FOR SOUTHERN COLORADO TO BE IN
THE DEEP FREEZE. GET READY FOR IT NOW WHILE THE TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL MILD. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 733 AM MST TUE DEC 3 2013

WANTED TO MENTION LLWS POTENTIAL AT BOTH KCOS AND KPUB THROUGH
16Z TO 17Z RESPECTIVELY. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE LIGHT WHILE WINDS JUST
OFF THE SURFACE ARE LIKELY BLOWING FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 30 KNOTS
OR SO BASED ON DOPPLER WIND DATA. POSSIBILITY FOR WIND SHEAR IN
THE LOWEST 2000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE FOR A FEW HOURS YET THIS
MORNING UNTIL WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN.

WINTER STORM SYSTEM BEARING DOWN ON THE REGION NEXT 24 HOURS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE RANGES TODAY AND THEN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
THE EASTERN RANGES AND PLAINS TONIGHT.  VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS MORNING WILL BE GOING DOWNHILL TO
IFR/LIFR ALL AREAS BY THIS EVENING.  VFR CONDITIONS EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS TODAY WILL BE TANKING TOWARD IFR/LIFR BY THIS
EVENING AS ARCTIC FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHWARD.  THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
CONTINUES TO DEAL WITH A PERSISTENT SURFACE INVERSION THIS MORNING
WITH PERIODS OF LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG.  HOWEVER...SHOULD BE SOME
MIXING IN THE VALLEY TODAY AS STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.  THIS MIGHT
FINALLY BREAK THE SURFACE INVERSION AND ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT
WARMING IN THE VALLEY TODAY AND...HOPEFULLY...IMPROVE CONDITIONS
FOR THE VALLEY TONIGHT.  LW


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 8 PM MST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR COZ076-081-082-084-085.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ058>061-063.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 6 PM MST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ066-068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PJC
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW