Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 151114
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
414 AM MST Mon Jan 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 335 AM MST Mon Jan 15 2018

The cold front has been moving thru the southeast plains tonight,
with low stratus moving in behind the front.  Later this morning all
of the southeast plains should be covered with low stratus.  The NAM
shows very little in the way of pcpn ovr the sern plains thru the
morning hours, with main just some isold areas north of Highway 50
by 18Z.  The HRRR has a little more pcpn, mainly along the Highway
50 corridor by late morning and along wrn portions of El Paso
county.  The GFS has the most widespread pcpn coverage over the sern
plains.  Think that with all the low level mstr, low level easterly
winds and cold temps, that at least some light snow will be possible
in most locations of the southeast plains and along the eastern mtns
by late morning.  Temps today are going to be cold acrs the eastern
areas, with mostly 20s in the afternoon and maybe in the teen over
the Palmer Divide.  In the afternoon, the models show pcpn chances
becoming more focused along the I-25 corridor, the srn border and
the areas along and near the eastern mtns, and decreasing over
eastern portions of the plains.  With temps aloft in the saturated
layer are expected to be in the favorable zone for dendritic growth
and so light fluffy snow is expected and could lead to a few inches
of snow accumulation in some areas.  Have gone with higher snow
amounts over eastern portions of Teller county, the southwest
portions of El Paso and northeast Fremont counties, and also along
and adjacent to the eastern slopes of the Wet mtns.  Dry weather is
expected in the high valleys and mtns of the Continental Divide
today and tonight, and high temps will generally be above average.

In the evening it is expected that pcpn chances will generally be
decreasing, but will still be focused along and near the eastern
mtns and I-25 corridor and decreasing or ending from north to south.
By midnight it looks like only some light snow will still be
possible along the srn I-25 corridor and the southern border areas.
With decreasing cloud cover in most areas tonight, temps are
expected to be fairly cold with lows in the single digits above and
below zero in many locations.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 335 AM MST Mon Jan 15 2018

Cold air will remain in place along and east of the mountains on
Tuesday, as sprawling arctic high pressure drops slowly south
through the central U.S. Interior valleys and east mountain slopes
may briefly warm above freezing late Tue as cold air becomes
fairly shallow, while eastern plains stay locked in the 20s.
Surface high then shifts eastward Wed, with lee trough deepening
and warmer wly flow developing. Could still see temps over portions
of the lower Ark Valley from Pueblo eastward lag slightly as
colder air may be slow to dislodge, while better mixing at locations
along and west of I-25 will mean a reappearance of maxes in the
50s by late afternoon. Heights build across the area Thu as upper
ridge migrates through the Rockies, leading to even warmer temps
area-wide. May even see few locations along I-25 reach 60f with
modest downslope winds. Flow aloft turns swly on Fri ahead of
western U.S. upper trough, with increasing winds and very warm
temperatures spreading across the region. Blended temps likely
underplay the amount of warming, as progged 700 mb temps on both
the euro and gfs suggest upper 60s/nr 70 possible along/east of
the mountains, and suspect we`ll need to continue to push temps
for Fri afternoon toward the warmer end of the guidance envelope
the next few days.

00z ECMWF and GFS in fairly good agreement swinging the western
upper trough through the state over the weekend, bringing another
quick shot of snow to at least the mountains along the Continental
Divide beginning early Sat morning. Forecast track on both models
looks a little too far north for substantial snow over the eastern
mountains and plains, though it wouldn`t take much of a southward
wobble to bring a heavier round of snow to much of the area Sat
night (which quick peek at the 06z suggests) into early Sun.
Current forecast, with high pops along the divide and lower pops
for snow showers farther east looking ok for now.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 335 AM MST Mon Jan 15 2018

Low stratus is expected to cover the southeast plains later this
morning and KCOS and KPUB should have MVFR or IFR conditions today,
with period of light snow.  Tonight there will still probably be a
lot of low clouds in the evening, but late tonight there could be
breaks in the clouds.

KALS is expected to have VFR conditions thru the next 24 hrs with
generally light winds.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...28



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