Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 281731
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1031 AM MST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST SUN DEC 28 2014

...A BIT WARMER TODAY...
...SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...

LIGHT SNOW CURRENTLY FALLING OVER SRN ID WILL SHIFT S AND EWD THIS
MORNING...AS COLD AIR BEGINS SURGING SWD FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO
THE NR ROCKIES. EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
SAWATCH RANGE THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WILL FALL FROM KMYP NWD...AND THE BETTER ACCUMS WILL
BE N OF COTTONWOOD PASS. HAVE STARTED A SNOW ADVISORY AT 19Z FOR
THIS AREA. SNOW WILL INITIALLY BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT IT WILL BE
PERSISTENT AND THERE SHOULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION BY
MONDAY MORNING.

OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...WILL SEE A BIT WARMER CONDITIONS TODAY
AS TEMPS ALOFT CLIMB ANOTHER 5-7 DEGREES C THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD
HELP MELT OFF SOME OF THE SNOW COVERAGE OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPS
SHOULD END UP IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES FOR THE
PLAINS...WHILE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE 20S FOR
THE HIGH VALLEYS. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH TEMPS IN
THE NEGATIVE AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE CWA. THE ARCTIC FRONT
SHOULD HOLD OFF ARRIVING OVER THE PALMER DVD UNTIL AFTER 12Z
MONDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR SNOW AND BITTER COLD FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE NEW WEEK. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST SUN DEC 28 2014

...VERY COLD AIR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...

NOT MUCH OVERALL CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. VERY COLD AIR IS
STILL SCHEDULED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY MORNING AND LAST INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. REGION WILL LIKELY NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING FOR A FEW
DAYS STRAIGHT AND WE WILL NOT SEE THE SUN UNTIL PROBABLY WEDNESDAY.

MONDAY...

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND
12:01 AM MONDAY MORNING AT COS AND PUB AS THE TEMPERATURE IS ONLY
GOING TO DECREASE ONCE THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES ACROSS REGION. FRONT
SHOULD CROSS KCOS AOA 7 AM AND KPUB AOA 8 AM...REACHING DOWN TO THE
NM BORDER BY LATE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AFTER THE FRONT GOES BY.

SNOW IS NEAR CERTAIN FOR MOST OF THE PLAINS...THE QUESTION IS HOW
MUCH? OVERALL NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIF ACCUMS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
BUT CONTINUOUS LIGHT SNOW IS LIKELY. SOUNDINGS FAVOR DENDRITIC
GROWTH DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND THIS MAY BE OUR MOST FAVORABLE TIME
TO ACCUMULATE SOME FLUFF.

WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OR NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS THROUGH MONDAY. PLEASE DRESS FOR THE WEATHER (LAYERS ARE BEST)
...IT IS GOING TO BE BRUTAL DUE TO THE COLD AMBIENT AIR AND NORTH
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH. PLEASE MAKE SURE YOU HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL
KIT IN YOUR CAR. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ISSUE NPW WINTER WEATHER
HILITES ON THIS DAY AND ON TUESDAY.

IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS STEADY LIGHT SNOW IS LIKELY. TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN TODAY (SUNDAY) AND 00Z TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE
ABOUT A FOOT. OTHER MTN REGIONS WILL ALSO SEE SNOW WITH THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS.

TUESDAY...

THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION. MORNING LOWS WILL BE
IN THE ZERO TO NEGATIVE 10 RANGE ACROSS THE AREA. IT WOULD BE COLDER
IF IT WERE NOT FOR THE OVERCAST CONDITIONS WHICH WILL LIKELY BE OVER
THE AREA.

A WEAK SECONDARY PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY MORNING AND THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW
TO OCCUR OVER THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. I HAVE TRENDED
THE POPS UPWARD...BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO INCREASE THEM MORE IF
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP TUE MORNING.

MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT GET ABOVE 10F ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS ON
THIS DAY. SOME GUIDANCE DOES NOT HAVE THE TEMPS GETTING ABOVE ZERO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST
AREA ON THIS DAY WITH HIGHS AOA 20F.

CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY OR TUESDAY EVENING
OVER THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...KCOS AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVC TUE NITE
INTO WED MORNING AS S-SE SFC UPSLOPE DEVELOPS

TOTAL SNOWFALL FOR THE PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD WIND-UP BEING
IN THE 2-4" RANGE. AREA CLOSER TO THE MTNS AND EAST SLOPES OF THE S
MTNS COULD SEE 4-10" AMOUNTS. SNOW HI-LITES MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME
FOR AREAS ALONG THE WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION DURING THIS
PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...

A SHARP RIDGE AXIS BUILDS AT MID LEVELS AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO RETURN TO THE REGION WITH MODIFYING TEMPS.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON THE PLAINS ON THIS
DAY. A 30 OR TWO MAY OCCUR IN THE BANANA BELT REGIONS.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND....

A TIGHTLY WOUND-UP 500 MB CLOSED LOW OVER CALIF WED AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO LATE IN THE WEEK. NEARLY ALL OF THE WEATHER
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BORDER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT MOST AREAS
SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. 30S AND 40S SHOULD RETURN TO THE PLAINS
BY THURSDAY. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1018 AM MST SUN DEC 28 2014

KPUB AND KCOS...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL REACH KCOS AND KPUB
MONDAY MORNING...WITH ANTICIPATED TIME OF FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND
14-15Z. EXPECT LOWER CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
HAVE MARGINAL MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD OF 18Z. LOWER CEILINGS AND SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP
AFTER 18Z. AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE VERY COLD...WITH SUB
ZERO READINGS VERY LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT. UNTIL THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...EXPECT VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

KALS...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR FOG AND LOWER CEILING FROM
AROUND 08Z TO 14Z. CURRENTLY...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PERSISTENT FOG OR IFR CEILINGS TO PUT IN TAF. TO
HINT AT THE POTENTIAL...PUT IN 6SM AND SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 200 FT.
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS COULD HAMPER RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT.
WILL ALSO HAVE TO SEE HOW MUCH SAN LUIS VALLEY WARMS TODAY WHICH
AFFECTS THE AMOUNT OF SUBLIMATION TO MOISTEN THE LOWER LAYERS.
--PGW--

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...PGW


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