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000
FXUS65 KPUB 210930
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
330 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

CURRENTLY...

WAT VAP IMGY SHOWS A MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE REGION. THIS PLUME IS
ORIGINATING FORM CONVECTION IN MEXICO/E AZ AND NM. OVER THE CWA...A
FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING...ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
PLUME. SFC OBS AT 2 AM WERE INDICATING 60 DWPTS OVER THE FAR E
PLAINS....WITH 50S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE PLAINS. IN THE MTNS...THE
MOISTURE DECREASES FROM EAST TO WEST...WITH 40S AND 50S OVER THE E
MTNS/SAN LUIS VALLEY AND 30S IN FAR SW CO.

TODAY...

IT MAY BE A BIT BUSIER THAN SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES. THE NAM HAS THE
MOST QPF AND IT MAY BE RIGHT GIVEN THE CURRENT WAT VAP IMGY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR HIGHER PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE FAR E PLAINS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS BACA COUNTY. FOR THIS REASON HAVE HIGHEST SCTD POPS OVER THIS
REGION. SCTD POPS ARE ALSO LIKELY ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON. FARTHER NORTH...GENERALLY N OF US-50...POPS WILL BE MORE
ISOLD.

IT WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH/MID CLOUDS EXPECTED
OVER THE REGION I DONT KNOW IF IT WILL BE AS WARM AS GUIDANCE.
HOTTEST TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE IN LAMAR WHERE L100S ARE LIKELY.

GIVEN THE LLVL MSTR (CAPES ~1000)...AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED V
SOUNDINGS...COULD SEE A MARGINALLY SVR STORM OVER THE FAR E
PLAINS...MAINLY EAST OF EADS-LAS ANIMAS-KIM LINE.

TONIGHT...

BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE OVER FAR SE
CO...BUT SHOULD END BY MID EVENING. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER FAR SE CO LATER TONIGHT...BUT MOST OTHER REGIONS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO
BRING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS TUESDAY
WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON. NOT A LOT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...BUT STILL EXPECT TO SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. GFS MAY BE A BIT FASTER
THAN THE ECMWF WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD AS UPPER
TROF MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY. MODELS DO SHOW
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND
COULD SEE A BETTER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
AND WESTWARD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY
WARM THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

RIDGE AXIS IS FLATTEND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH TROF MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH BETTER CLOUD COVER.

RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN FOR THE WEEKEND. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING.
BOUNDARY MAY LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS ON THE PLAINS
THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY FOR THE WEEKEND.
STARK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24H AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES...KPUB...KALS AND KCOS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. ISOLD TSRA MAY
OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW
TO EXPLICITLY MENTION IN TAF FCST. ANY TSRA COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS. BEST CHANCE OF ANY TSRA WILL BE KALS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...STARK
AVIATION...HODANISH