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000
FXUS65 KPUB 100257
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
757 PM MST MON DEC 9 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 757 PM MST MON DEC 9 2013

UPDATED TO INCREASE WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG AND
WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AS PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN
ACROSS THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES. SET UP DOES NOT SUPPORT DOWNSLOPE
WINDSTORM...HOWEVER WITH THE STRONG GRADIENT...CANT RULE OUT SOME
GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM MST MON DEC 9 2013

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW EXITING THE STATE AND PUSHING
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HAVE ALREADY SEEN GUSTY W-NW WINDS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEY AND OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...WHERE SOME LOCAL BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW HAS BEEN
OBSERVED. EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ADJACENT PLAINS WEST OF I-25
HAVE SEEN SOME SPORADIC WINDS AS WELL...WHICH HAS BOOSTED MAX TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 20S MANY AREAS. TONIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW GRADUALLY
FLATTENS AND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY TOWARD MORNING...WHILE WEAK LEE
TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS LATE. SHOULD SEE CONTINUED
GUSTY WINDS OVER/NEAR THE SAWATCH RANGE AND IN THE LEE OF THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS...AND SUPPOSE A FEW NORMALLY WINDY SPOTS WEST OF
I-25 WILL SEE SOME GUSTS TO 40 MPH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL
WELL BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN OVER MOST WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND SHELTERED
VALLEYS...WHILE EASTERN SLOPES AND PLAINS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...ESPECIALLY WINDY AREAS WEST OF THE
INTERSTATE. ON TUESDAY...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL
CONTINUE...WITH WARMER AIR SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. LEE
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE KS
BORDER...WHICH WILL ALLOW WEST WINDS AND WARMER TEMPS TO REACH MORE
OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WESTERN VALLEYS...INCLUDING SAN LUIS VALLEY
AROUND ALAMOSA WILL STAY UNDER FAIRLY STRONG INVERSIONS...AND MAX
TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM MST MON DEC 9 2013

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD KEEPING THE REGION COOL AND GENERALLY DRY. AN UPPER LOW OFF
THE CA COAST WILL GRADUALLY MEANDER ACROSS THE DESERT SW THROUGH THE
WEEK...FINALLY WEAKENING AND GETTING ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER FLOW AS
IT CROSSES NM ON FRI.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...NAM AND GFS MODELS INDICATE A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL DROP DOWN THE EASTERN CO PLAINS LATE TUE NIGHT...KEEPING
MAX TEMPS ON WED FOR THE CWA BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. HIGH TEMPS ON WED
SHOULD ONLY WARM TO RIGHT AROUND FREEZING FOR THE PLAINS...AND IN
THE TEENS TO 20S FOR THE HIGHER VALLEYS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE PAC
NW THU...THEN APPROACHES THE ROCKY MT REGION AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME
THE UPPER LOW OUT WEST MOVES EAST ACROSS NM AS AN OPEN WAVE. AFTER A
DRY DAY THU...LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE WEST THU
NIGHT...WITH ISOLATED SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FRI AFTN AND EVE.
AT THIS POINT THIS LOOKS TO BE A QUICK SHOT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
RETURNING ON SAT AND OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB
UP TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMS STARTING THU AND LASTING INTO THE NEXT
WORK WEEK. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 232 PM MST MON DEC 9 2013

VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH TERRAIN
DRIVEN WINDS. OVER THE MOUNTAINS...EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SANGRES AND
SAWATCH RANGES WILL BE WINDY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING
WITH SOME GUSTS 30-40 KNOTS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...PETERSEN