Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 021723
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1123 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 852 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING. THE FREEZE WARNING HAS
BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

A RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EWD
THROUGH TUE MORNING. MEANWHILE...A DISTURBANCE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL
DROP SOUTHWARD TONIGHT...BRINGING A WEAK FRONTAL SURGE OT THE
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. WILL SEE PARTIAL CLEARING
THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS OVER THE MTS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THEN...SOME LOW CHANCES OF PRECIP WITH THE
FRONTAL SURGE LATER TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY OVER THE ERN MTS AND
RATON MESA REGION. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL LIKELY FALL IN THE
00Z-06Z TIME PERIOD THIS EVENING. TEMPS TODAY WILL START TO
REBOUND...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS...AS H7 TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND
ZERO DEG C BY LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT 50S TO AROUND 60 DEG FOR THE
PLAINS...OR STILL ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

DRY WARM WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK...THEN
UNSETTLED CONVECTIVE WEATHER WILL DEVELOP AS LARGE UPPER LOW
LUMBERS OVER THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TUESDAY...WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHWARD MAY BRING A FEW
MORNING SHOWERS TO PARTS OF THE PLAINS. IN ADDITION...A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/-TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ON THE PLAINS AND 50S AND 60S VALLEYS.

WEDNESDAY...DOMINANT RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVER REGION. CANT RULE
OUT A STRAY HIGH ELEVATIONS -TSRA...HOWEVER...DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE. IT WILL BE WARM. TEMPS ON WED WILL BE IN THE
70S ON THE PLAINS...50S AND 60S HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY...VERY WARM TEMPS EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS WITH HIGHS
IN THE M80S MOST LOCATIONS WITH 70S TO AROUND 80F IN EL PASO
COUNTY. 60S AND 70S EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS.WE WILL SEE A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE MTNS AS SOME MOISTURE IS
GOING TO BE PULLED NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF A LARGE BROAD UPPER LOW
WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE CENTRAL CALIF.

FRIDAY...MODELS IN RATHER VERY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY THIS MORNING
IN BRINGING THIS LOW INLAND. IT IT FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER THE
GREATER LAS VEGAS AREA BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE STATE OF CO...AND A
FEW WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL BE ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE BROAD 500
MB LOW. THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE CONVECTION OVER THE ENTIRE
REGION. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THESE SHORT WAVES...TSRA MAY OCCUR AT
ANY TIME...HOWEVER BEST CHANCE WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. IF GUIDANCE IS CORRECT...BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY
STRONG STORMS WOULD BE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS

SATURDAY...CENTER OF UPPER LOW WILL BE LIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST
AND WILL BE OVER THE COLORADO REGION BY SAT AFTERNOON. WEST TO SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE CWA...BUT TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE ON THE
COOL SIDE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED STORMS IN THE MTNS ON
THIS DAY. FOR THE PLAINS...THE GUIDANCE VARIES A BIT. THE EC HAS A
BIT OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH
KEEPS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BACKED OVER THE PLAINS WHILE THE GFS IS
A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND HAS THE DRYLINE WELL INTO KS. IF THE EC
IS CORRECT...WE COULD SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS ON THE
PLAINS SAT AFTERNOON...WHILE IF THE GFS IS CORRECT THEN IT COULD
BE GENERALLY DRY AND BREEZY ON THE PLAINS SAT.

SUNDAY...MID LVL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST-
NORTHEAST...WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHERE
JUST EAST OF THE ROCKIES...EITHER OVER NE CO OR EASTERN WY...BY
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COOL AIR ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION SO
EXPECT QUITE A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ON THIS
DAY. FLOW WILL BE VERY WEAK ALOFT AS THE LOW IS RATHER VERY LARGE
AND FLOW AT MID LOW LEVELS IS WEAK. TEMPS SHOULD COOL OFF INTO THE
60S AND 70S PLAINS.

INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOW EXPECTED TO FILL AND TROUGH AXIS WILL
BE JUST TO OUR EAST. STATE WILL BE UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A
SHORTWAVE OR TWO ROTATING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD KEEP THE AREA ON THE COOL SIDE WITH CONTINUED SHOWERY
PRECIP OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

SUMMARY...WARM TEMPS FOR MID WEEK THEN LARGE LUMBERING UPPER LOW
MOVES OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. COULD SEE
SOME STRONGER STORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW...ESPECIALLY FRI AND
MAYBE SAT. TSRA INTENSITY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WE CAN ADVECT INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH TIMING OF
SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. UPPER LOW WILL BE
PARKED OVER THE REGION LATER SAT INTO SUNDAY AND THIS SHOULD
PROMOTE MORE CONVECTIVE/SHOWERY WEATHER WITH TEMPS COOLING OFF A
BIT. AT THIS TIME DO NOT SEE STEADY PRECIP WITH THIS UPPER LOW AS
BEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1112 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

A DRIER AIRMASS HAS OVERSPREAD THE FLIGHT AREA. LINGERING
LOW...MAINLY MVFR CLOUDS...OVER SOME OF THE HIGH MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS SHOULD BE DISSIPATING SOON. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY REMAINS OVER THE FLIGHT AREA FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LOCAL
MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS MAY BE ENCOUNTERED THROUGH SHOWERS. A
WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTH AND CLIP THE EASTERN PLAINS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS PRETTY DRY. IT MAY
PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED AND BRIEF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
PLAINS AS IT TRACKS SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...ITS GREATER IMPACT MAY BE TO KICK UP THE NORTH WINDS
ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS IT PUSHES A WEAK
COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.

AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS FINISH DISSIPATING AT KALS...EXPECTING VFR
AT ALL 3 TAF SITES NEXT 24 HOURS. KCOS AND KPUB WILL SEE THE NORTH
WINDS PICK UP 10Z-14Z TUESDAY AS THAT WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...LW


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