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000
FXUS65 KPUB 210945
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
345 AM MDT Fri Jul 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 340 AM MDT Fri Jul 21 2017

...Active Weather Later Today and This Evening...

Currently...

Water vapor imagery indicates the monsoon plume extended from old
Mexico northward across the 4 corners and them up across the
northern plains. Widely scattered showers and storms were noted
within the plume. Across the forecast area at 3 am, radar
indicated dry conditions. Skies were mostly clear except across
the central mtns and most of the Teller county region. Temps were
quite warm with readings in the 70s across the plains and 40s and
50s across the higher terrain. Dewpts were in the 50s for the
most part across the se CO plains, but were in the 50s and 60s up
in ne CO. Several boundaries were noted across ne CO moving south.


Today...

An active day is likely across the region, especially by later this
afternoon. A weak front will continue to move south today and should
be over the Palmer Divide by late this afternoon. At the same time,
rather impressive diffluence aloft is noted, and this will allow for
the potential for a cluster of thunderstorms to develop. Given
plenty of monsoon moisture and the forcing both at low levels and
aloft, locally heavy rain will be possible, especially across the
central mountain region extending eastward across the Pikes Peak
region and Palmer Divide. Best potential for heavier rain will be
during the late afternoon time period.

Across the remainder of the region, scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms will be possible over the remainder of the
mountains and high valleys. Most of the plains, especially south and
east of Pueblo, should remain dry this afternoon.

It will be hot once again on the plains, albeit it will likely be a
tad bit cooler than yesterday. Expect nearly all of the lower
elevations will reach into the 90s, with upper 90s in the lower
Arkansas River valley. A 100F reading or two will be likely,
especially east of Pueblo.

Burn scar flooding will be possible today, along with flash flooding
in the Chalk Bluffs region around Mt Princeton. Urban flash flooding
may also occur in the Colorado Springs area. Dangerous cloud to
ground lightning activity should be high today. Later shifts will
have monitor high res guidance, and a flash flood watch may be
needed for parts of the region later this afternoon.

Tonight...

Gusty northerly winds will be likely early this evening in the
greater Colorado Spring/Pueblo regions as gusty outflow winds
associated with thunderstorms over the Palmer Divide push southward.
Winds gusts to 30 mph are in the NDFD, but these will likely need to
be bumped up in later forecast packages. Guidance is not indicating
additional thunderstorms moving south with the boundary, and only
have isolated pops on the far eastern plains this evening.

Most shower and thunderstorm activity should end by midnight across
the region.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 340 AM MDT Fri Jul 21 2017

Saturday will be an active day across the southeast plains. A cold
front moves south of the area during the afternoon with moist,
upslope flow in place behind the front across the plains. Monsoon
plume shifts farther south and east so it is over the southeast
portion of the state. If there is enough instability, could see
some very heavy rainfall associated with any of the thunderstorms
that develop. NAM and GFS both target areas along the Raton Ridge
in southern CO. Upslope flow continues on Sunday, but upper level
support is less favorable for more than scattered thunderstorms.
Models keep the precipitation confined mainly in the mountains
Sunday.

The upper level high ridge remains over the southwestern U.S.
through Wed. This will bring continued warm and mainly dry weather.
However, cannot completely rule out the chance for a late day
thunderstorm.

Beginning later Wednesday and continuing into Thursday, the upper
ridge gets flattened slightly as a series of low pressure systems
move into the Pacific northwest. Models are indicating a couple of
weather disturbances bringing a slight chance for thunderstorms.

High temperatures cool a few degrees this weekend, with highs in the
80s and lower 90s on the plains Saturday and in the upper 70s and
80s Sunday. Temperatures will warm back into the 90s Monday through
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 340 AM MDT Fri Jul 21 2017

Active weather is likely for the KCOS site later this afternoon
as a cluster of thunderstorms and strong outflow winds are
expected at this taf site from later this afternoon into early
this evening. MVFR conditions will be likely for a brief period of
time as the activity moves through. Otherwise expect VFR
conditions at KCOS.

KPUB will likely see gusty outflow winds very late this afternoon or
evening. Isolated thunder will be possible during the same time
period. Otherwise anticipate VFR conditions.

At KALS, an isolated thunderstorm can`t be ruled out this afternoon
or early evening, otherwise expect VFR.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...STARK
AVIATION...HODANISH