Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 242141

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
341 PM MDT WED AUG 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 341 PM MDT Wed Aug 24 2016

...More Evening Showers and Storms...

Upper monsoonal disturbance will drift east across the area into the
evening, resulting in more showers and thunderstorms.  So far today,
cooler temperatures have resulted in lower storm intensities.
However, storms are now starting to show a little more strength.
Primary concerns this evening will be similar to past days including
lightning, wind gusts to around 40 mph, heavy rain and possibly some
small hail.  Also, if a storm happens to track over a burn scar
area, particularly the Hayden Pass burn scar or the Waldo, there
could be flash flooding.

Not much change for tomorrow.  Another disturbance will move across
with another round of showers and storms.  Threats will be similar
to recent days.  Temperatures will be similar to today`s, continuing
cooler than average for this time of year.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 341 PM MDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Not many adjustments required from previous meteorological
reasoning with active conditions continuing into the weekend
with improving conditions then developing next week.

Longer term meteorological issues continue to include
temperatures...pops/qpf/storm intensities and high elevation
snow potential at times.

Recent longer term PV simulations and
forecast model soundings continue to indicate that generally
moist zonal to southwesterly upper flow should be noted into the
weekend with upper ridging still expected to develop over the
forecast district by next week.

Similar to the previous several days, the combination of upper
disturbances interacting with available atmospheric moisture is
expected to allow continued periods of showers and thunderstorms
into the weekend(the strongest of which will be capable of
producing heavy rain/localized flash flooding...small hail and
gusty winds at times). WFO Pueblo will monitor closely.
Also...some higher terrain snow(focused over the higher mountain
peaks) also depicted in grids.

Then an return to warmer and drier conditions(although isolated to
low-grade scattered pops still needed at times...generally favoring
higher terrain locations) anticipated from Monday into next Wednesday
as upper ridging develops over the area.

Near to below seasonal late August temperatures are projected
from Friday into the weekend with near to above seasonal late August
temperatures then returning to the forecast district from Monday
into Wednesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 341 PM MDT Wed Aug 24 2016

A cold front and monsoon disturbance will keep it mostly cloudy with
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the flight area into the
evening. Primary threats will be lightning, wind gusts to around 40
mph, locally heavy rain and possibly some small hail. Activity will
be the most widespread through about 03Z. Decreasing clouds with
isolated showers and storms are expected after 03Z. The KCOS, KPUB
and KALS TAF sites will all see a chance for showers or storms at or
near the terminals, primarily until about 02z. Generally VFR across
the flight area next 24 hours. However, areas of MVFR, IFR and LIFR
will be found primarily in the mountains, but also across the lower
elevations, in areas of precipitation.


.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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