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000
FXUS65 KPUB 081446
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
746 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 744 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2014

UPDATED FRONT END OF FORECASTS WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
ALSO...ADJUSTED POPS AND SKY COVER TO BETTER REFLECT
CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. LW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 524 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2014

...STORM WINDING DOWN THIS MORNING...

STORM WINDING DOWN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS MORNING...WITH THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS LIKELY THE LAST PLACE TO FINISH.  A GOOD MOISTURE
CONTENT STORM FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS...WITH
LIQUID WATER AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH FOR THE WET MOUNTAINS AND MUCH OF
FREMONT COUNTY.  WATER AMOUNTS OF .50 TO 1.00 INCHES WERE NOTED OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA FROM PUEBLO SOUTH TO NEW MEXICO AND ALSO ACROSS
PARTS OF TELLER COUNTY.  FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE EAST...AMOUNTS
FROM 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES WERE COMMON.  FARTHER WEST...NOT SO MUCH AS
THE EAST...BUT STILL SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.  ALL THE
MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN A LITTLE BIT OF PATCHY FOG AROUND THE AREA
THIS MORNING SO WATCH OUT FOR THAT.

NOT ENOUGH ADDITIONAL SNOW TODAY TO WARRANT CONTINUATION OF ANY OF
THE HIGHLIGHTS SO ALL WILL GO DOWN PRIOR TO SUNRISE. STILL ANOTHER
INCH OR 2 POSSIBLE OVER SOME AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF PUEBLO THIS
MORNING BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE.  THE WET MOUNTAINS ARE STILL
SEEING SOME SNOWFALL.  THEY MAY SEE ANOTHER INCH OR 2 PRIOR TO
SUNRISE.  LAMAR IS CURRENTLY UNDER PERSISTENT AREA OF LIGHT SNOW.
THAT AREA MAY SEE ANOTHER INCH OR SO.  BUT...IN GENERAL...THIS ONE
IS JUST ABOUT OVER.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE DETERMINING MAX TEMPERATURES.
WILL BE CHALLENGING IN AREAS OF SNOW COVER...UP TO A FOOT OR 2 IN
SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN AREAS.  WHILE MELTING WILL CAUSE HIGH TEMPS IN
SNOW COVERED AREAS TO LAG OTHER AREAS TODAY...DONT THINK THE
DIFFERENCE WILL BE TOO EXTREME.  THERE WAS NEVER MUCH COLD AIR TO
BEGIN WITH AND THERE ARE NO DEEP SURFACE INVERSIONS IN PLACE.
PLUS...THE MARCH SUN IS A LOT MORE EFFECTIVE AT WARMING THAN THE
JANUARY SUN.  SO...WILL GO WITH MODESTLY COOL TEMPERATURES OVER THE
SNOW COVERED AREAS...BELOW AVERAGE...BUT NOT WAY BELOW.

BY TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NOT MUCH WIND SO
TEMPS SHOULD TAKE A GOOD FALL.  OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD MOSTLY BE NEAR
OR BELOW AVERAGE.  AGAIN...COULD BE SOME SPOTS OF FOG AROUND DUE TO
THE COMBINATION OF RECENT PRECIPITATION...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS.  OTHER THAN THAT...JUST A GOOD NIGHT FOR SLEEPING.  TOO BAD
WE HAVE TO SPRING FORWARD AND LOSE AN HOUR OF IT. LW

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 524 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2014

PRIMARY LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES INCLUDE TEMPERATURES
...SOMEWHAT GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES AND LOCALIZED/ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AS WELL AS IMPACT THAT MID-WEEK SYSTEM WILL
HAVE ON FORECAST DISTRICT.

A RETURN TO DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS IS STILL ANTICIPATED
OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A DRY
UPPER RIDGING TO ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOP IN COMBINATION
WITH EASTERN COLORADO SURFACE LEE-SIDE TROUGHING.

FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES NEARING OR EXCEEDING 70F ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
(ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS) FROM LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
LEVELS MAY BE NOTED BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT OUR RECENT PRECIPITATION WILL HELP TO
DIMINISH THIS THREAT.

NEXT ROUND OF UNSETTLED AND COOLER WEATHER IS THEN ANTICIPATED
OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
RECENT COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT NEXT UPPER SYSTEM AND
NORTHERLY SURFACE SURGE IMPACTS THE REGION.

COMPUTER SIMULATIONS THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE FROM LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY WITH ECMWF AND DGEX KEEPING PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THIS TIME-FRAME...WHILE THE GFS
SUGGESTS THAT VARYING DEGREES OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA INTO LATE WEEK. AT THIS TIME...FOR SENSIBLE
WEATHER CONSIDERATIONS...HAVE DEPICTED PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN
ISOLATED POPS DURING THE LATER WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY PERIOD AND AS
ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 524 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2014

STILL MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AROUND THIS MORNING BUT
IMPROVEMENT IS FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST AT THIS
TIME.  EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT 12-18Z AS THE STORM SHIFTS OFF TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.  STILL SOME LINGERING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN COLORADO BORDER AREA
18-21Z...BUT THEN VFR EXPECTED ALL AREAS BY 00Z.  TONIGHT...COULD
SEE SOME SPOTS OF FOG DEVELOP OVER THE FLIGHT AREA DUE TO ALL THE
RECENT MOISTURE COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.  NOT
ENOUGH THREAT TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME BUT SOMETHING TO
BE AWARE OF FOR PLANNING PURPOSES. LW


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW