Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 150540
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1040 PM MST Wed Feb 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 400 PM MST Wed Feb 14 2018

...More Snow and Wind for the Mountains with More Wind & Elevated
Fire Weather Elsewhere...

Strong westerly winds gusting to near 40 mph and dry air will
continue to the high fire danger across the plains this evening.
Caution to avoid fire starts needs to continue.

Tonight, a good stream of moisture from the subtropical Pacific will
blast into southwest Colorado overnight bringing another round of
snow, wind and blowing snow. Another foot or more is probable at
places like Wolf Creek Pass. For the mountain ranges farther north
and east, the southwest winds won`t be quite as favorable for
heavy snow. But, there will still be more snow, wind and blowing
snow with several inches of accumulation. A Winter Storm Warning
is in effect for the San Juans. For the mountains farther north
and east, Winter Weather Advisories are in effect. Wind gusts over
50 mph will be possible in and near the high country overnight.

On Thursday, moderate snowfall rates will continue early in the
mountains before gradually decreasing in the afternoon.  Meanwhile,
mild temperatures and high fire danger will return to the plains as
gusty winds and dry air continue.  Humidity values won`t quite be
low enough for fire weather highlights but it will still be gusty
and dry.  Wind gusts over 50 mph will be possible in and near the
high country.  Caution to avoid fire starts needs to continue.
Temperatures on Thursday will be a little cooler than today but
still well above average for mid February. Most readings will fall
between 10 and 15 degrees above average for this time of year.
However, late in the day, a cold front will drop south across
northern El Paso County and the Palmer Divide, resulting in falling
temperatures and winds shifting out of the north.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 400 PM MST Wed Feb 14 2018

Relatively active conditions are anticipated over the forecast
district during the longer term with primary meteorological
concerns being winds, pops, qpf and temperatures.

Latest longer term computer simulations, PV/Precipitable water
analysis and forecast model soundings indicate that next round of
generally light precipitation should impact eastern portions of
the forecast district from later Thursday evening into Friday
morning with drier conditions then returning to the majority of
southern Colorado from Friday afternoon into Sunday night as drier
northwesterly to zonal upper flow develops over the region.

In addition, gusty to strong winds at times are expected over
many sections of the CWA from Thursday night into Monday, which
will also be capable of producing elevated fire weather
concerns(favoring eastern sections), especially by Sunday as
maximum temperatures climb well above mid-February climatological
averages this day. WFO Pueblo will monitor closely.

Then, next potential round of unsettled and colder
conditions(including the potential of moderate to heavy snow at
times) is anticipated from Monday into Tuesday as next vigorous
upper disturbance interacts with a healthy moist north-northeasterly
surface surge. Improving meteorological conditions are then expected
by next Wednesday.

Warmest temperatures during the longer term over the majority of
the forecast district should be realized this weekend(especially
Sunday), while coolest temperatures are expected Friday and
especially from Tuesday into next Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1040 PM MST Wed Feb 14 2018

VFR conditions expected at COS, PUB and ALS through at least
1600Z. A broad upper trough moving across the region will keep
breezy southwest winds across the area and taf sites through the
overnight hours, with winds becoming more west northwest and
remaining gusty through the late morning and afternoon. Passing
system sends a cold front across the Eastern Plains with winds
shifting to the north to northeast behind fropa at COS by 1601Z
and PUB by 1603Z. Scattered -shsn and MVFR conditions expected to
behind fropa across the Plains.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 11 AM MST Thursday for COZ058-060-068.

Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST Thursday for COZ061-073-
075.

&&

$$

AVIATION...MW



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