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000
FXUS65 KPUB 191645
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1045 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

...SPRINGTIME SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE REGION TODAY AND TONITE...

CURRENTLY...

BROAD PACIFIC TROUGH CENTERED OVER GREATER LAS VEGAS REGION WAS
MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD. LOTS OF HI AND MID LVL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED
WIT THIS SYSTEM OVER THE SW CONUS WITH SCT HI ELEVATION RAIN/SNOW
OVER MAINLY NW NEW MEXICO. SOME OF THIS PRECIP WAS NOTED IN FAR S CO
AS WOLF CREEK PASS WAS OBSERVING SNOW AT 3 AM.

TODAY...TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST WITH PIECES OF ENERGY (WEAK
CIRCULATIONS) EXTENDING SW-NE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. ALONG WITH THE
TROUGH MOVING OVER THE REGION...A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL PROGRESS
SLOWLY SOUTH TODAY OVER THE PLAINS...BEING LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG THE
US-50 CORRIDOR BY NOONTIME...AND THEN GENERALLY STALLING OUT IN THIS
REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBO OF THESE TWO WX SYSTEMS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTORMS OVER THE REGION
TODAY. SIMULATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WERE SHOWING THE BEST OVERALL
FORCING TO OCCUR ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE S MTNS LATER TODAY AND
THIS EVENING. LATEST 06Z NAM WAS REALLY PEGGING THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MTNS WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
THIS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OF THE WEAK CIRCULATIONS SPINNING UP
OVER THE RATON MESA REGION THIS EVENING.

WITH DWPTS MAINLY IN THE L40S TODAY...THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
HEAVY PRECIP IS RATHER LOW...BUT WE WILL POSSIBLY SEE RAINFALL RATES
THAT MAY CAUSE ENHANCED RUNOFFS TO OCCUR OVER THE BURN SCAR REGION.
GIVE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...WE WILL SEE A BIT OF CG ACTIVITY
OVER THE AREA TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF LTG ALONG THE
PLAINS/MTN INTERFACE.

ANY SNOW ACCUMS IN THE MTNS WILL OCCUR GENERALLY ABOVE 10000 FEET OR
HIGHER.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NITE OVER PARTS OF THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. BEST FORCING APPEARS
TO BE ALONG THE S CONTDVD AND THE PLAINS/MTN INTERFACE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE S SANGRE DE CRISTO MTN REGION/RATON MESA AREA. THE E
PLAINS WILL SEE SCT ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER LVL
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL EXTEND NE-SW ACROSS THE PLAINS.
GUIDANCE ATTM SHOWS THIS BOUNDARY RUNNING FROM ROUGHLY E KIOWA
COUNTY SWWD BACK TOWARDS WALSENBURG. HOWEVER...MODELS DO NOT AGREE
UNANIMOUSLY ON THE SPECIF LOCATION OF THIS BOUNDARY. BY LATER
TONIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WILL COOL AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE ISOLD
OVER THE AREA.

A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SUNDAY...DISTURBANCE SLOWLY DRIFTS TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY.
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE LOWER LAYERS WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS. SUSPECT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DAYTIME
HEATING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. LATEST NAM AND GFS
HINT AT A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF RAINFALL NEAR THE SOUTHERN
INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR WITH DEEPER NORTHEAST FLOW. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS MOSTLY SCATTERED POPS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT QPF
TOTALS. STILL HAVE SOME DOUBTS THAT THE AREA OF MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM IS DISORGANIZED...AND EXACT
LOCATION OF ANY BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN WOULD BE DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT AT THIS TIME.

.MONDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW OVER THE PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. CURRENTLY APPEARS
THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUE TO BE MILD
WITH ANY SNOW LIMITED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...STRONG TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. WINDS ALOFT WILL BECOME SOUTH WESTERLY ON
TUESDAY AND STRENGTHEN ON WEDNESDAY. ON TUESDAY...THERE WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND RESIDUAL LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE TO KEEP HUMIDITIES ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES FOR FIRE
WEATHER. GFS HINTS AT A WEAK DRY LINE NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER AND
ADDED SOME ISOLATED POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. BY WEDNESDAY...A DRY
SLOT WILL LIKELY MOVE OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO. AS A
RESULT...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE VERY POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS...EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND SAN
LUIS VALLEY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE REGION FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES.

.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION...BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW COULD DEVELOP OVER THE REGION.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON
THURSDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGHER THAN ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THEY
STILL MAY BE LOW ENOUGH TO MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA. BY
FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE AREA SHOULD DECREASES THE WINDS
SPEEDS WITH A LOW THREAT FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE
FOCUSED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS..WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND OR ABOVE
10000 FEET. CIGS WILL BE IFR TO LIFR ACROSS THE HIGHER AREAS WITH
MTN OBSCURATIONS AT TIMES. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WILL DRIFT OFF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AFFECTING THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING. CIGS WILL STAY MAINLY IN THE VFR
CATEGORY...THOUGH SOME BRIEF MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF
THE STRONGER -TSRA ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. ERRATIC GUSTY
WINDS TO AROUND 30-40 MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SOME
SMALL PEA SIZED HAIL. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS AS THE UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO. THIS WILL KEEP MAINLY
VFR CIGS IN PLACE WITH SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE PLAINS...PARTICULARLY
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF PUEBLO. THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS
MAY SEE IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH HEAVY WET SNOW
POSSIBLE ABOVE 10KFT. CLEARING SKIES WILL TAKE PLACE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS AND -TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...KT