661
FXUS65 KPUB 110932
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
332 AM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of afternoon and evening thunderstorms today,
  initially over the Mountains, then spreading east across the
  Plains. A couple could become strong to severe.

- Cooler on Saturday, with 70s and 80s for highs. Thunderstorms
  most prevalent over the higher terrain.

- Daily afternoon and evening shower and storms are expected
  through the long term period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 329 AM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Currently...satellite imagery this morning shows and upper shortwave
pushing east into Kansas.  A few showers remain on radar across Baca
County, and those should continue east through the early morning
hours.  Temperatures have cooled into the 50s and low 60s across the
Plains, with dewpoints in the lower 50s along the I-25 corridor, and
low 60s near the Kansas border.

Today...the upper level pattern will feature high pressure over
southern California, while a trough passes across the Northern
Plains through this afternoon.  This will put northwesterly flow
across Colorado, with a strong embedded wave dropping across the
area this afternoon.  At the surface, low level flow will turn
southeasterly by early afternoon.  This will help keep higher
dewpoint air across the Plains, with dewpoints remaining in the
upper 40s to mid 50s.  Instability will increase this afternoon,
with most high-res guidance developing around 1000 j/kg of SBCAPE
along the Eastern Mountains, into the I-25 corridor.  0-6 km shear
looks to be near 30 kts this afternoon.  Expect initial thunderstorm
development over the Mountains by late morning, pushing east into
the I-25 corridor this afternoon.  Given the shear and instability,
a few thunderstorms could become strong to severe.  Hail to near 1
inch in diameter and wind gusts in excess of 60 mph will be possible
with stronger storms.  Lightning and locally heavy rainfall will
also be possible.

Overall, temperatures will be slightly cooler today, with 80s to low
90s for the lower elevations.  In addition, there could be a few
spotty near critical fire weather concerns along the Continental
Divide, however, winds look to be too light this afternoon.

Tonight...the upper shortwave will slowly track southeast into
western Kansas by morning.  Showers and thunderstorms will push east
across the Plains overnight, clearing into Kansas by Saturday
morning.  The strong to severe potential will remain during the
evening hours, with the probability diminishing around midnight.
Gusty outflow winds near 45 mph and small hail will remain a threat
until the storms move east into Kansas.

A cold front outflow boundary will push back westward across the
Plains late tonight helping to keep moisture pooled across the
region.  This will help keep overnight lows in the lower 60s for the
Plains.

Saturday...not much change expected to the upper pattern with the
high sitting over southern California, and the upper trough moving
east into the Upper Midwest.  Flow aloft is forecast to turn more
northerly by the afternoon.  Another upper level wave embedded in
the flow will drop south across western Colorado.  This will help
generate another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms over
the Mountains.  The northerly steering flow should help keep
convection over the higher terrain, however, a couple of cells may
move east into the southern I-25 corridor by late afternoon.
Lightning, outflow wind gusts near 55 mph and locally heavy rainfall
will all be possible with stronger storms.  Temperatures on the
Plains will be much cooler on Saturday, with 70s and 80s for this
across the lower elevations. Mozley

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 329 AM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Saturday Night - Thursday: Through the long term period, active
weather is expected each day, as showers and storms impact portions
of the region. Overall, not much has changed from previous long term
forecast, with messy northwesterly to northerly expected to be in
place as a ridge of high pressure sits across the southwestern US.
While no major forcing is still expected, orographic forcing will be
in place with this flow pattern, along with periods of enhanced
forcing from frontal surges late in this period. With these forcing
mechanisms, along with moisture still in place each day, daily
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are expected. The
highest coverage of showers and storms is anticipated to remain
along the mountains, where forcing will be maximized. With that said
though, greater coverage is expected to expand across the plains
around midweek next week as the aforementioned cold fronts push
across the area. And like most summer days, a strong thunderstorm or
two can`t be ruled out, with frequent lightning, gusty outflow winds
around 40 mph, small hail, and brief periods of heavy rain the most
likely hazards with any more organized convection. Beyond all of
that, breezy winds and increased afternoon and evening cloud cover
are expected each day. Looking at temperatures, through Tuesday,
near seasonal temperatures are anticipated for much of the area.
Then for Wednesday and Thursday, a cool down to below seasonal
values is expected thanks to the cold front passage.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 329 AM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

For KCOS and KPUB...VFR conditions are expected through the rest of
overnight hours and into tomorrow morning. Another round of showers
and thunderstorms will be possible on Friday afternoon, mainly
between 21Z and 00Z at KCOS, and between 23Z and 03Z at KPUB. Brief
MVFR visibilities will be possible during heavier thunderstorm
activity, along with gusty and erratic wind behavior.

At KALS...VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours.
Winds will be light and variable through the overnight hours,
becoming southerly and eventually westerly tomorrow. Brief showers
and weak thunderstorms will be possible, mainly between 22Z and 00Z,
though the chances are too low (less than 30%) to include in the TAF
at this time.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...MOZLEY