Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 120543
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1143 PM MDT THU SEP 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT THU SEP 11 2014

PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS HAVE BEEN COVERED WITH LOW CLOUDS
TODAY AND HAVE REMAINED QUITE COOL AS A RESULT. A BOUNDARY IS
EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGES OVER ERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY AND
NORTHWARD INTO BENT COUNTY. THIS AREA HAS BEEN FREE OF THE STRATUS
AND NOS SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THE
AREAS THAT HAVE NOT SEEN THE STRATUS TODAY ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE
TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THIS AREA INCLUDES THE ERN
MTNS...HUERFANO...LAS ANIMAS...FREMONT...TELLER...SRN
BENT...SOUTHERN OTERO...WRN BACA COUNTIES. THE FORECAST IS STILL
ON TRACK WITH STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE N AND NE THIS EVENING...BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA AND
STRONGER NERLY WINDS. THIS WL ALSO SPREAD PCPN INTO THE SERN
PLAINS...AND WL KEEP POPS QUITE HIGH. PCPN OVERNIGHT STILL LOOKS
LIKE IT WL BE GENERALLY LIGHT ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR...WITH THE
FAR SERN PLAINS PROBABLY SEEING THE HIGHER PCPN AMOUNTS. THE NAM
IS ONE TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF PCPN OVR MUCH OF THE SERN
PLAINS BEFORE MIDNIGHT...AND THEN 0.3 TO AROUND 0.6 INCHES OF PCPN
OVR SRN PROWERS AND BACA COUNTIES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6AM...WITH
A TENTH OF AN INCH AND LESS ELSEWHERE OVR THE PLAINS...AND ONLY A
COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OVR THE I-25 CORRIDOR. STILL LOOKING LIKE SNOW
LEVEL COULD DROP DOWN TO AROUND 6000 FT TONIGHT...SO PORTIONS OF
COLO SPGS COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN LATE
TONIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN EL PASO COUNTY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF TELLER COUNTY SHOULD MAINLY JUST SEE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON
GRASSY AREAS. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONTAL
SURGE...WHICH WL CONTINUE INTO EARLY MORNING FRIDAY. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WL PUSH SOME OF THE MSTR
INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND THEY COULD SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS AND MAYBE EVEN SOME LIGHT PCPN IF THIS OCCURS.

FRIDAY MORNING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO
THE AREA...IT WILL ALSO PUSH THE BETTER MSTR SOUTH OF THE
STATE...WITH GENERALLY JUST SOME LIGHT PCPN CONTINUING OVR THE ERN
MTNS AND PLAINS. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...SOME LIGHT PCPN MAY STILL
LINGER ACRS THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND ALONG THE
ERN MTNS...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY BE DRYING OUT THRU THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPS WL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL OVR ERN AREAS ON FRI...WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WHICH IS ABOUT 30 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE.  IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
ONLY BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT THU SEP 11 2014

...WARMING UP NEXT WEEK...

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXTENDED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...BUT GENERAL THEME SHOULD INCLUDE WARMER
CONDITIONS AND LESS PRECIP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES
NEXT WEEK.

AS THIS FIRST SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH PASSES TO THE EAST...WE WILL BE
UNDER QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MOST OF THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BE SHOVED S OF THE AREA...BUT SOME RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SOME SHOWERS AND MAYBE
EVEN A STORM OR TWO GOING OVER THE SRN MTS. WILL MAINTAIN LOW OR
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE MTS SOUTH OF HGWY 50 TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
SCENARIO OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NRN
ROCKIES AND PLAINS ON SUNDAY WILL BRING MORE WEAK UPSLOPE TO THE
PLAINS FOR THE PLAINS THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS NEXT
WEEK...BUT TEMPS SHOULD STILL RECOVER TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S...AND MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE MTS. WILL
KEEP BARELY MENTIONABLE POPS...OR ABOUT 10 PERCENT...FOR THE ERN
PLAINS...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE REEVALUATED ONCE THE STRENGTH OF
THESE WEAK PUSHES OR FRONTS BECOMES A LITTLE MORE CLEAR.

BEYOND ABOUT TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS BECOME
MORE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVER OUR AREA. THE REAL
QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW LONG THE RIDGE WILL LAST. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BRING A FAIRLY STRONG TROUGH THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND WOULD KEEP A RELATIVELY
DRY FORECAST IN PLACE. WILL STICK WITH THE MORE CONSERVATIVE
SOLUTION FOR NOW...WHICH IS FAIRLY DRY AND WARM FOR THE BALANCE OF
NEXT WEEK...BUT ONCE AGAIN THIS MAY HAVE TO BE REEVALUATED IF THE
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND AMPLIFIED GFS SOLUTION GAINS TRACTION WITH THE
ENSEMBLES. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM MDT THU SEP 11 2014

MAIN CONCERN IS HOW LONG WILL THE LOW CIGS LAST AT KCOS AND KPUB? WITH
THE COOL AIR ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION...OVC SKIES WILL LIKELY
LAST UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON AT KPUB AND KCOS. SO FAR SKIES
MAINLY MVFR BUT AS WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME MORE EASTERLY DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS BELIEVE CIGS WILL COME DOWN TO MORE IFR AND
LAST UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING. SHOULD START TO SEE VFR BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

WE MAY SEE A BRIEF PD OF LOWER CIGS AT KALS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
TOMORROW BUT IT SHOULD NOT LAST.

CANT RULE OUT A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES AT KCOS TOWARDS SUNRISE BUT
THERE WILL BE NO ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...HODANISH



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