Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 152046
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
246 PM MDT FRI AUG 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT FRI AUG 15 2014

CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN MORE SPARSE TODAY VS
YESTERDAY...AT LEAST AS OF 20Z. HOWEVER...THE MTNS HAVE HAD MORE
SUN TODAY...AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING OVER THE MOUNTAINS ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN CO.
VARIOUS HIGH RES MODELS INCREASE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...THEN SPREAD THEM EASTWARD INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SFC DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN
LOWER TODAY...DROPPING OFF INTO THE LOWER 40S AND EVEN SOME UPPER
30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
PLAINS...AND THIS HAS LIMITED CAPE TO AROUND 500 J/KG ACCORDING TO
SPC MESO ANALYSIS. PRECIP WATERS ARE RUNNING LOWER AS
WELL...AROUND 80% OF NORMAL IN THE NORTH TO 130% OF NORMAL IN THE
SOUTH BASED ON THE BLENDED TPW SATELLITE PRODUCT.
THUS...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD NOT BE AS EFFICIENT HEAVY RAINFALL
PRODUCERS AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY. THAT SAID...THERE IS STILL
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS. IF ONE OF THESE HITS BURN SCARS OR AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN...THEN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL STILL BE A CONCERN.
FORTUNATELY...STORMS APPEAR TO BE MOVING PRETTY GOOD (SOUTHEAST AT
15 MPH)...WHICH MAY LIMIT THREAT SOME. HRRR SUGGESTS GREATEST
THREAT WINDOW FOR THE WALD0 WILL BE FROM 21Z-00Z. THE PAPOOSE AND
WEST FORK BURN SCARS AS WELL AS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL SEE
THE GREATEST THREAT BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z. THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE
OFF INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT THEY DON`T LOOK TOO ORGANIZED AND THERE ISN`T MUCH
OF A LOW LEVEL JET TO HELP SUSTAIN CONVECTION AFTER DARK...SO WILL
END MOST POPS BY MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY LOOKS EVEN DRIER THAN TODAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS FALL OFF
TO LESS THAN AN .75 INCHES ALONG/WEST OF I-25.  STILL ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
EVEN LOWER.  STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THE
STRONGER CELLS...BUT THREAT SHOULD BE LOWER DUE TO THE LIMITED
COVERAGE.  TEMPERATURES TOMORROW SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
TODAY. -KT

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT FRI AUG 15 2014

EXTENDED FORECAST FOR SE CO LOOKS PRETTY TYPICAL FOR THE MIDDLE
OF AUGUST. DAILY STORM CHANCES AND TEMPS AROUND 90 DEGREES FOR THE
PLAINS. MAIN QUESTION WILL BE THE PROGRESSION OF A W COAST CUTOFF
LOW AND PACNW TROUGH...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SAT NIGHT...CONVECTION SHOULD BE WRAPPING UP PRETTY EARLY AFTER
SUNSET.  WILL LEAVE HIGHEST POPS SAT EVE OVER THE RATON MESA AND
FAR SERN PLAINS...WHERE THE MODELS ARE FOCUSING THE HEAVIEST QPF.

SUNDAY...A SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH THROUGH IN THE NW FLOW
LATE IN THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL COME AFTER 00Z...AND BE FOCUSED ON THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND
PALMER DVD. EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MTS SOMEWHAT LATER
THAN USUAL...MOSTLY AFTER 20Z...AND IT WILL BE ISOLD-SCT IN COVERAGE.
THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF STORMS
BUT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR WEST THE BULK OF THE
DEVELOPING CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL BE. HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS FROM THE
PIKES PEAK AREA SEW TO KLAA...FROM 00-03Z. SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS H7 TEMPS CLIMB TO NR 17 DEG C IN THE
AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A FEW SPOTS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S OVER THE
LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEY.

MONDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE ERN
MTS AS LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW PERSISTS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MISS VALLEY. WILL KEEP ISOLD-SCT POPS THERE
WITH MORE ISOLD ACTIVITY POSSIBLE OVER THE BALANCE OF THE ERN PLAINS
AND SAN LUIS VALLEY. IF TRENDS CONTINUE...MAY BE ABLE TO DROP
MENTIONABLE POPS FROM ALL BUT THE MTS ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY...WILL SEE THE START OF A SWITCH BACK TO INCREASING MONSOONAL
MOISTURE. THE CUTOFF OFF THE CA COAST MAY BEGIN TO RETROGRADE DURING
THIS PERIOD...WHILE A TROUGH IN THE PACNW BEGINS MOVING INTO ID AND
MT. THE ECMWF CONTINUES OT BE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING A
RETURN OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO THE AREA...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS BACK
A BIT. LOW POPS LOOK APPROPRIATE FOR THE REGION...ISOLD FOR THE
LOWER ELEVS AND SCT IN THE MTS.

BY WED-FRI...THE PACNW TROUGH SHOULD START TO ADVANCE INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES...AS THE UPPER HIGH TO OUR SW SHIFTS INTO ERN TX. THIS SHOULD
BRING A RETURN TO A STRONGER MONSOONAL PATTERN...WITH MORE MOISTURE
BEING DRAWN NWD FROM THE SUBTROPICS INTO WRN CO. WILL LEAVE LOW
ENSEMBLE POPS INTACT FOR NOW...BUT IF TRENDS CONTINUE MAY HAVE TO
SLOWLY RAMP UP POPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT FRI AUG 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. KCOS AND KALS WILL
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A THUNDERSTORM IN THE VICINITY OF
THE TERMINALS. ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 KTS AND BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VIS WITH TSRA WILL BE THE MAIN STORM THREATS. THREAT
DIMINISHES BY 02Z AND KCOS AND KPUB TERMINALS MAY SEE A BRIEF
NORTH WIND SHIFT FROM THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SKIES CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
ON SATURDAY. THESE MAY HAVE A HARDER TIME MOVING OFF INTO THE
ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS SO TERMINALS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE
SPARED ON SATURDAY. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...KT



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