Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 232114
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
314 PM MDT SAT APR 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM MDT SAT APR 23 2016

CURRENTLY...

RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WAS BEGINNING TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER. THIS
SHORT WAVE WAS LOCATED ALONG THE ID/NV/UT BORDER AND WAS ROTATING
QUITE NICELY IN THE WAT VAP SAT PIX IMGY. A RATHER IMPRESSIVE WIDE
BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER W COLO WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE. ADDITIONALLY...IT WAS RATHER QUITE WINDY OVER THE W SLOPE
AS WX STATIONS IN THE VALLEYS WERE GUSTING TO 35 TO ~50 KTS. OVER
OUR REGION QUITE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDS WERE NOTED...AND THE SFC
WINDS WERE RAMPING UP..AS QUITE A FEW STATIONS OVER THE PLAINS
WERE GUSTING IN TH 20-30 KT RANGE.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT....

HRRR WANTS TO BRING TWO PIECES OF ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION DURING.
THE FIRST COMES THROUGH AOA 21-24 UTC AND THIS PIECE OF ENERGY IS
FCST TO FIRE A FEW -TSRA OVER THE FAR E PLAINS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE E KIOWA COUNTY REGION. WITH SOME CAPE AND
GUSTY SYNOPTIC SFC WINDS....CANT RULE OUT A MARGINAL SVR STORM. OVER
THE MTNS...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
CONTDVD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE C MTNS. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD BE
DRY...BUT WINDY AT TIMES.

A 2ND SHORT WAVE WILL COME THROUGH LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE 03-
06 TIME FRAME...AND THIS PIECE OF ENERGY IS FCST TO FIRE A ROUND OF
STORMS OVER THE E PLAINS...MAINLY E OF A LINE FROM KLHX TO KIM. CAPE
WILL BE LESS DUE TO LACK OF INSOLATION BUT FORCING WILL BE
STRONGER...SO ONCE AGAIN A MARGINAL SVR STORM CANT BE RULED OUT.

TOMORROW...

EXCEPT FOR SOME SHOWERS IN THE C MTNS...IT WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE
FCST AREA TOMORROW. TEMPS WILL BE A GOOD 4 TO 8F COOLER TOMORROW
THAN TODAY AS COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD BE
MOSTLY SUNNY AND IT WILL NOT BE AS WINDY AS IT IS TODAY. HIGHS
SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 70S ON THE PLAINS AND 60S IN THE VALLEYS.
/HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM MDT SAT APR 23 2016

FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT WORK WEEK ACROSS THE
STATE.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT ONE UPPER LOW SYSTEM
WILL BE EXITING THE AREA...PROVIDING FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THE NEXT INCOMING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CROSS INTO
THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY MORNING...BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE CONTDVD BY
MIDDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LINGER OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH
MONDAY...SLIDE ACROSS WYOMING ON TUESDAY...THEN EJECT TO THE EAST
ACROSS NEBRASKA AND THE DAKOTAS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS MORE NORTHERN
TRACK IS EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND PALMER DVD...BUT LITTLE FOR THE SE CORNER OF THE
STATE. CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH WED EVE. AS FOR
TEMPS...MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S AND 70S MON AND EVEN TUE WILL COOL BY
10-15 DEGREES FOR WED AS A COLD FRONT TUE EVE DROPS DOWN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. BOTH MON AND TUE ARE POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
DAYS...DEPENDING ON MOVEMENT AND PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW. STAY
TUNED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS
DOWN ALONG CA LATE WED...SWINGS ACROSS SOUTHERN CA THU
MORNING...THEN TRACK SUP ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND COLORADO INTO SAT.
THE EC IS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH WOULD
TRANSLATE TO SIGNIFICANTLY MORE PCPN FOR THE AREA STARTING THU EVE.
FOR NOW...STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHAT THE EXTENDED PROCEDURE PRODUCED
WHICH WOULD BE ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED POPS FOR MOST
AREAS...AND MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S AND 60S. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 313 PM MDT SAT APR 23 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24H AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES...KPUB...KALS AND KCOS. WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON...DECREASING EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY FROM
A GENERAL WESTERLY COMPONENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS
WILL OCCUR IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS (GAP FLOW AREAS) ON THE
PLAINS...(N PUEBLO COUNTY AND HUERFANO COUNTY)

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ228-230>233-
235.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH



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