Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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934
FXUS65 KPUB 160304
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
904 PM MDT FRI MAY 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 PM MDT FRI MAY 15 2015

UPDATED TO ADJUST PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT
WITH MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EAST OF A TRINIDAD TO
LA JUNTA LINE. GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 50 MPH ARE THE MAIN THREAT. NO
OTHER UPDATES AT THIS TIME.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT FRI MAY 15 2015

SATELLITE IMAGES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED AN UPR LOW CIRCULATION
OVR SWRN UT.  FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BROAD UPR LOW WL
GENERALLY MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THRU SAT...ACRS CO AND WY. THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT...GOOD SWRLY OROGRAPHIC FLOW OVR THE SAN JUAN
AND LA GARITA MOUNTAINS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION.  THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE ISOLD
TO SCT SHOWERS AND TSTM THIS EVENING...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS
MAY CONTINUE INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS NR THE KS BORDER.
ALSO...PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND MAYBE THE SANGRES COULD
ALSO SEE A FEW OVERNIGHT SHOWERS.

SAT THE UPR FLOW GOES AROUND TO THE WEST...AND ACCUMULATING PCPN
CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS.  THE CONTDVD SHOULD
SEE HIGH PCPN CHANCES THRU THE DAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL
ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVR THE HYR AREAS. AT THIS
TIME...THE CURRENT WINTER WX HIGHLIGHTS STILL LOOK GOOD. BY LATE
MORNING...THE ERN MTNS AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE ISOLD TO SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS WHICH THEN SPREAD OVR THE EASTERN PLAINS THRU THE
AFTERNOON AS THE UPR TROF MOVES ACRS THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST POPS
STILL LOOK GOOD FOR SAT AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING GOOD
CHANCES FOR PCPN OVR THE PIKES PEAK REGION SAT...WHICH WL ELEVATE
THE CONCERN FOR THE WALDO CANYON OR BLACK FOREST BURN SCARS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT FRI MAY 15 2015

ACTIVE METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN AT TIMES STILL EXPECTED OVER THE
FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THE LONGER TERM AS THREE UPPER
DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE FORECAST DISTRICT.

PRIMARY METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE PRECIPITATION(POTENTIALLY
HEAVY AT TIMES...WHICH COULD IMPACT RECENT BURN SCARS AS WELL AS
ADDITIONAL LOCATIONS)...HIGHER ELEVATIONS SNOW AT TIMES...TEMPERATURES
AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AT TIMES.

LATEST LONGER TERM FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND COMPUTER
SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT 1ST UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE DEPARTING THE
FORECAST DISTRICT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED SATURDAY EVENING.

ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW SHOULD THEN BE NOTED OVER THE
CWFA FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF 2ND CLOSED UPPER
LOW THAT IS PROJECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA BY 12Z
TUESDAY. THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW IS THEN PROJECTED TO MOVE INTO
WYOMING BY 06Z WEDNESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE DAKOTAS BY 00Z
THURSDAY.

THIS 2ND STORM SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TO THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM LATER MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED FROM TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...
FORECAST PARAMETERS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ARE ALSO INCREASING DURING
THE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT TIME-FRAME...PRIMARILY FAVORING
LOCATIONS FROM THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS INTO EASTERN
COLORADO. WFO PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT
AND TRACK OF THIS POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM CLOSELY.

THEN...3RD UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OVER CALIFORNIA
WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO ARIZONA BY NEXT FRIDAY.
WHEN COMBINED WITH PROJECTED MOIST EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW...CONTINUED PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...PRIMARILY OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT(INCLUDING ATTENDANT
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AT TIMES) IS ANTICIPATED FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
NEXT FRIDAY.

IT STILL APPEARS THAT GENERALLY BELOW SEASONAL MID TO LATE MAY
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NOTED DURING THE LONGER TERM IN
COMBINATION WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES. ALSO...THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY GRADIENT
WINDS DURING THE LONGER TERM ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY NIGHT...MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN BY NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT FRI MAY 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THRU THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED IN THE VCNTY OF THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE EVENING AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT HEAVIER RAIN COULD AT TIMES CAUSE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ066-068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY



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