Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 162111
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
311 PM MDT THU OCT 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT THU OCT 16 2014

...DRY...SEASONAL NEXT 24 HOURS...

DRY WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.  COULD BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES DUE
TO MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC.

ON FRIDAY...THE PATTERN STARTS TO CHANGE SUBTLY.  A CIRCULATION OFF
THE COAST OF BAJA...WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS BAJA AND ARIZONA DURING
THE DAY.  AS THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES COLORADO...THE UPPER LEVEL
WINDS OVER THE STATE WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE SOUTHERLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND START TO TRANSPORT SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION.  THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
BY LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY WILL
COOL ABOUT 10 DEGREES AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES SENDS A SURGE OF COOL CANADIAN AIR THROUGH THE CENTRAL
US PLAINS.  THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH TO PENETRATE THE
EASTERN MOUNTAIN PASSES SO LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED
FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT THU OCT 16 2014

SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE PROJECTED TO IMPACT THE FORECAST
DISTRICT DURING THE LONGER TERM...WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING UNSETTLED AND COOLER CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

1ST UPPER DISTURBANCE IS PROJECTED TO BE MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN
COLORADO/NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO AROUND 06Z SATURDAY BEFORE
PUSHING EAST OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT BY LATER SATURDAY.

THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AS WELL AS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES OVER PRIMARILY
HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

THEN...CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AT
06Z SUNDAY IS PROJECTED TO MOVE INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO
BY 00Z TUESDAY BEFORE WEAKENING. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS AT TIMES FROM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING...ONCE AGAIN FAVORING SOUTHERN LOCATIONS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS.

LATEST COMPUTER SIMULATIONS THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON IMPACT THAT
NEXT SYSTEM HAS ON SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM LATER TUESDAY INTO
NEXT THURSDAY WITH RECENT ECMWF THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. FOR NOW WILL PAINT GRIDS/ZONES WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS IN COMBINATION WITH NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

SPEAKING OF TEMPERATURES...AT THIS TIME...PROJECT THAT NEAR TO
ABOVE SEASONAL MID TO LATE OCTOBER MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NOTED DURING THE LONGER TERM WITH WARMEST CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...WHILE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
RETURN BY NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT THU OCT 16 2014

DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT.
ON FRIDAY...A CIRCULATION OFF THE COAST OF BAJA WILL MOVE INLAND
ACROSS BAJA AND ARIZONA...TOWARD COLORADO...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS BY LATE IN THE DAY.  CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  CONSEQUENTLY...VFR
EXPECTED ALL AREAS NEXT 24 HOURS...INCLUDING KCOS...KPUB AND KALS
TAF SITES.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$


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