Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 241719
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1119 AM MDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 934 AM MDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Put southern mountains and foothills in Winter Storm Warning until
3 pm.  Snow continues there with heavy amounts of a foot or more
above 8000 to 9000 feet or so. Will take Winter Storm Warning down
for Teller County and also Winter Weather Advisory for southern El
Paso County. Will continue Blizzard Warning for northern El Paso
as, especially, northeastern El Paso continues to get snow and
blowing snow.  Other highlights to remain intact for now.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 420 AM MDT Fri Mar 24 2017

...Intense storm causing very strong winds and heavy snow over parts
of the region...

Currently...

At 3 am, a strong 988 mb surface low was located over Las Animas
county. Strong winds were located on the northwest side of this
storm as observations across the greater Pikes Peak region and
Pueblo regions indicated winds gusting to 50 to 65 mph. A 75 mph
gust was observed at KPUB earlier this morning.

an area of heavy snow was located over northern Teller and parts of
northern El Paso county. This heavy area of snow then extended
northeastward across east central Colorado.

In addition...a long lived band of thunderstorms extended from the
wet mountains to Pueblo and into Lincoln county. This band has been
pivoting slowly westward since midnight. Heavy snow was likely
occurring across the southern Sangre De Cristo mtn region.

Far southeast Colorado...generally east and south of La Junta...were
generally clear with strong southerly winds.

Today...

The brunt of the storm will affect the I-25 corridor region and
southern mtns through through early this morning. An impressive
theta-E axis is advecting in from NW KS (dwpts in the mid 40s) and
moving across the east central CO area and into the greater Pikes
Peak region. Latest HRRR guidance indicates the cyclone will move
steadily east and the band of precip on the backside of the low will
translate to the east through late morning...being located over the
eastern plains by noontime. By mid to late afternoon, precip will
gradually decrease over the far eastern plains. Skies  will likely
clear out considerably along the I-25 corridor by mid afternoon. The
only exception will be the Palmer Divide region.

Strong winds will continue over the I25 corridor throughout the day,
although the strongest winds will occur mainly this morning. The
northerly winds over the eastern plains will increase this morning
as the low moves out into KS, with the strongest winds occurring
late this morning into the afternoon.

Tonight

Some lingering precip will be along the SK border during the early
evening, but this precip should move into KS by mid evening, with
predominantly clear skies over the region for tonight. Winds over
the eastern plains will diminish during the evening hours.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 420 AM MDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Saturday-Sunday night...Short wave ridging building across the state
late Friday night gives way to increasing southwest flow aloft
Saturday afternoon ahead of short wave energy digging across the
Great Basin. This broad short wave trough continues to lift out
across the Rockies Saturday night and out across the Eastern
Plains through the day Sunday. Latest models differ on timing and
strength of the system, with the NAM the fastest and weakest, the
ECMWF the slowest and strongest and the GFS somewhere in between.
At any rate, this system looks to bring a quick of rain and higher
elevation snow showers to the ContDvd Saturday night, with
showers spreading east across the High Mountain Valleys through
the Eastern Mountains and Plains through the day Sunday. Quick
movement of this system to limit precipitation totals, though cant
rule out a few inches of snow across the higher terrain. Temperatures
warm back to at and above seasonal levels on Saturday and cool
slightly behind with passing system Sunday, with breezy north to
northwest winds expected across the area through the day Sunday.

Monday-Thursday...Roller coaster pattern continues with short wave
ridging building across the area Sunday night giving way to
increasing southwest flow once again through the day Monday, as more
Eastern Pacific energy digs into the Great Basin. Longer range
models continue to differ on details of this system, with the ECMWF
moving the system across Northern New Mexico and into the OK Panhandle
by Wednesday afternoon, where as the GFS has the system across the
4 Corners area on Monday and then digs the system south and east
through Central New Mexico and into Western Texas through Wednesday.
The EC solution gives better chances for widespread rain and snow
for southern Colorado than the further south GFS solution, though
time will tell. Short wave ridging builds across the region Wednesday
night before yet another Eastern Pacific system starts to take aim
on the Rockies for the end of next week. March 2017 certainly looks
to go out like a lion!

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1115 AM MDT Fri Mar 24 2017

KALS...gusty winds near 40 kts will decrease through the
afternoon with light and variable winds this evening and
overnight. Mid to high level clouds will continue across the SLV
through tonight.

KCOS...winds will continue to gust to near 40 kts before
decreasing this afternoon. Light snow will remain possible through
20z with reduced VIS and CIGS before snow dissipates. Skies will
clear this evening with light winds expected overnight.

KPUB...winds gusting to near 45 kts will continue through the
afternoon and begin decreasing by this evening. A shower or two
may be possible through 20z as precipitation moves off to the
east. CIGS will also improve this afternoon with VFR conditions
overnight.  Mozley

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 5 PM MDT this afternoon for COZ085>089-
093>099.

Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for COZ074-
075-087-088.

Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT today for COZ072-073-079-
080-094.

Blizzard Warning until noon MDT today for COZ084.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOZLEY



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