Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 190535
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1135 PM MDT Sun Jun 18 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 508 PM MDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Thunderstorm will pulses, flashes and cloud to ground strikes has
developed and is tracking southeast across the western/southern
edges of the San Luis Valley, adjacent to the San Juans. A few
other potential cells attempting to break the cap elsewhere across
the southern mountain areas. Updated forecast to include isolated
thunderstorms these areas this evening. In process of updated all
products now.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 350 PM MDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Currently, cooler airmass from the eastern mountains and to the east
is capped by the warm ridge aloft.  Air mass aloft is dry and the
most abundant cloud cover is over the eastern San Juan Mountains.
Only have silent PoPs for the southern and eastern mountains due to
the dry air aloft and capped airmass over the plains and eastern
mountains.

Tonight, another cold front will move southward with upslope flow
continuing over the eastern mountains and plains.  Currently, do not
anticipate any low clouds as model sounding do not show any
saturated layers.  On Monday, lower level airmass from the eastern
mountains and eastward will be capped by the warm dome of high
pressure aloft.  The cooler airmass will prevent plains from getting
very warm and will tend to keep daytime humidities above 20 percent.
Further west, it will be another warm day with low afternoon
humidities. Have some limited PoPs over the highest portions of the
eastern mountains and over the Eastern San Juan Mountains.  Moisture
will be limited so any storms will not produce much rainfall.

--PGW--

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 350 PM MDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Primary meteorological issues during the longer term include but
not limited to temperatures, pops, thunderstorm intensity and
winds.

Some adjustments required from previous meteorological
reasoning(especially in regards to cooler temperatures now
anticipated by next weekend).

Recent forecast model soundings, PV analysis and computer
simulations still indicate that upper ridging will continue to
remain anchored over the desert southwest into southern Colorado
into at least Thursday night, allowing above seasonal June
temperatures to continue during this time-frame.

Then, cooler north to northeasterly surface surges(driven by a
1020+ MB surface high) are expected to move across eastern
portions of the forecast district from late week into next weekend
producing cooler temperatures in combination with increased
precipitation chances at times.

At this time, it appears that the highest potential for stronger
to potentially severe thunderstorms should be experienced Tuesday
into Tuesday night(over southeastern locations) and then again
from Friday into next weekend(favoring eastern locals).

It still appears that the highest potential for warmest maximum
temperatures during the longer term should be experienced from
Tuesday into Thursday, with maximum temperatures nearing or
slightly exceeding the century mark over select eastern locations.
Maximum temperatures are then projected to cool to below
later June climatological by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1124 PM MDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Generally dry northwest flow will continue across the flight
area next 24 hours.  However, there is a bit of moisture and
instability over the southern mountain areas that could allow
a few isolated showers and storms across the San Juans, southern
San Luis Valley and southern Sangre De Cristos late Monday. VFR
across flight area except for these spotty exceptions 21Z-03Z.

The KCOS, KPUB and KALS terminals should remain VFR next 24
hours. There is a low chance of a shower or storm at or near KALS
Monday afternoon but the odds are too low to put in the TAF at
this time.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
AVIATION...LW



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