Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 090507
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1107 PM MDT TUE JUL 8 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 714 PM MDT TUE JUL 8 2014

UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES TO REFLECT LATEST RADAR TRENDS. CONCENTRATED
AREA OF MDT TO HEAVY RAIN OVER SRN PUEBLO COUNTY WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSLATE SEWD THIS EVENING. REST OF CWA LOOKS TO SEE ONLY ISOLD
TO SCT CONVECTION THROUGH THIS EVE...QUIETING DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT TUE JUL 8 2014

CURRENTLY...STRATUS HAS ERODED OVER ALL BUT A SMALL PORTION OF EL
PASO COUNTY AND AIR MASS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR HAS
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH CAPES ABOVE 1000 J/KG WEST OF I-25.
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION TODAY...BUT WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING OVER THE SANGRES AND POINTS WESTWARD...HAVE SEEN
SCATTERED TSRA DEVELOP AS 0F 21Z. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING...EXPECT SCATTERED TSRA TO CONTINUE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN VALLEYS...WITH MESOSCALE MODELS (ESPECIALLY
HRRR) SUGGESTING CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PARK
COUNTY WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS FREMONT/PUEBLO/CUSTER
COUNTIES 22-02Z. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN RADAR
TRENDS/SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY ALONG
THE ARKANSAS VALLEY FROM PUEBLO WESTWARD. BEST BET FOR HEAVY RAIN
THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY BE IN/NEAR THE WET MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES...THOUGH A COUPLE STRONGER TSRA MAY CROSS
TELLER COUNTY 21-23Z AS WELL. CONVECTION WILL SLOW DIE BY LATE
EVENING...THOUGH A FEW STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST.

ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE STATE WITH LOW LEVEL
FLOW BECOMING MORE SWLY BY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MUCH WARMER MAX TEMPS
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS AS A RESULT...WITH MORE MODEST
WARMING FARTHER WEST. IN GENERAL...MOISTURE DECREASES SLIGHTLY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AND REMAINS UNCHANGED OVER THE WEST.
WILL THUS SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON TSRA MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS SEEING BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS. I-25
CORRIDOR AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL SEE MORE ISOLATED
ACTIVITY...THOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE KS
BORDER MAY PRODUCE A STRONGER STORM OR TWO LATE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT TUE JUL 8 2014

A RATHER STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO STORY ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE DESERT SW AND GREAT BASIN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...WITH A HEALTHY
AMOUNT OF MONSOON MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE PROVIDING THE
FUEL FOR A DAILY SHOT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTION WILL
BE MAINLY DIURNAL...BUT MAY START A BIT EARLIER OVER THE MTS DURING
THE LATE MORNING HRS...AS WELL AS BLEED OVER INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO BE SCATTERED OVER THE MTS...LIKELY OVER
THE PEAKS...AND MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND SAN
LUIS VALLEY.

THE ONLY POTENTIAL CHANGE TO THIS PATTERN WILL BE DUE TO AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE THU. THIS WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT DOWN INTO EASTERN CO ON SAT...BUT WITH THE TRUE EFFECTS
THEN REALIZED ON SUN. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON
SUN...AS WELL AS MORE WIDESPREAD SCATTERED POPS FOR THE E PLAINS.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS EACH DAY TO BE IN THE 90S PUSHING 100
F FOR THE PLAINS...AND 80S TO NEAR 90 FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. MIN
TEMPS EACH NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S FOR THE PLAINS...AND
40S TO AROUND 50 F FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. THE ONE COOLER DAY THAT
STANDS OUT WILL BE SUNDAY...WHEN MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
80S TO AROUND 90 F FOR THE PLAINS AND AROUND 80 F FOR THE VALLEYS.
MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM MDT TUE JUL 8 2014

MAIN AVN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST FROM
ABOUT 21Z THROUGH ABOUT 02Z. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL
BE ALONG AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD
PRODUCE SOME HAIL IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS COULD
OCCUR IF A STRONGER CELL AFFECTS THE TERMINALS. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...ROSE



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