Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 201700

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1000 AM MST Mon Feb 20 2017

Issued at 737 AM MST Mon Feb 20 2017

Pcpn has moved out of the southeast plains, so updated the
forecast to remove the slight chance of pcpn in those areas.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 337 AM MST Mon Feb 20 2017

The main forecast concern for today is the potential for critical
fire weather conditions.

An upper level trof is exiting the state to the east this morning,
and an upper level ridge will be building over the area today and
into tonight.  Radar this morning is picking up showers acrs
portions of the southeast plains. Will keep some low pops in the
forecast for a few hours this morning over the far southeast plains.
Will also keep some isold showers over the central and sw mtns
for a few hours this morning. For this afternoon will have dry
conditions acrs the forecast area. Temps today will be above
average, with highs mostly in the 60s acrs the southeast plains
and in the upper 40s through the lower 50s in the high valleys.
Gusty northwest to north winds acrs the far southeast plains this
afternoon, combined with min RH values below 15 percent for a few
hours, are expected to result in critical fire weather conditions.
Thus, will issue a Red Flag Warning for Kiowa, Prowers and Baca
counties this afternoon and into the early evening hours.

Tonight, westerly breezes in areas mainly close to the eastern mtns
and along portions of the I-25 corridor, will keep temps in these
areas fairly mild.  Dry conditions can be expected tonight, except
for the possibility of some isold showers moving into the central
mtns toward morning.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 337 AM MST Mon Feb 20 2017

Tuesday and Wednesday...Brisk west to southwest flow aloft settles
in across the state for both Tue and Wed, bringing snow to the
higher terrain and at the same time warm and dry conditions for the
plains. Isolated to scattered snow is forecast along the ContDvd,
while just isolated snow is expected for the eastern mts. Across the
plains, very warm and dry conditions with RH levels below 15% are
expected both days, pushing the plains into potentially critical
fire weather conditions. Tue at this time does not look like it will
have strong enough winds for a long enough period to warrant a
highlight. However, Wed is leaning towards an issuance. Since a Red
Flag is in effect for a portion of the area today, will hold off on
an additional highlight for the time being. Look for max temps in
the 50s and 60s for the high valleys both days, and in the 70s for
the plains.

Thursday and Friday...The upper low pressure system rolls across the
Pacific NW and northern Rockies on Thu, bringing more cloud cover
and potential showers for the plains later Thu. Also, a cold front
is forecast to drop south across the eastern plains Thu eve as the
upper low moves into NE. High temps on Thu are expected to be in the
40s for the high valleys, and 50s to lower 60s for the plains. On
Fri, max temps cool even more with readings in the 30s and 40s for
all areas.

Saturday and Sunday...As the upper continues east, a general
westerly flow aloft settles in with a broad low pressure trough
laying across the Pacific NW. There will be a continued threat of
isolated snow showers for the higher terrain over the weekend, with
temps somewhat cool in the 40s and 50s. Moore


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 947 AM MST Mon Feb 20 2017

Westerly winds and VFR conditions present throughout the forecast
period. Climatology modified model guidance from various models
have conflict in determining if there will be low cloud ceilings
overnight. Since similar conditions were present last night,
using a persistent forecast method, low ceilings will be left out
at this time.

Diurnal winds are at play for this TAF. Northerly winds shift to
westerly around 21Z, shifting to easterly around 06Z, then
finally shifting back to a northerly flow around 08Z. VFR
conditions are expected throughout the forecast period.

Westerly flow expected throughout, decreasing in magnitude this
evening through the overnight period. VFR conditions expected.


Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for COZ234-236-237.



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