Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 230427
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
927 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

WITH LATEST NAM...GFS AND HIGHER RES MODELS COMING IN STRONGER
WITH TROUGH AND FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...HAVE DONE A MAJOR UPGRADE IN POPS...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS ALONG THE PALMER DVD AND RATON MESA REGION. WITH THE
EXPECTED STRONG NORTHERLY OROGRAPHIC FLOW...HAVE RAISED POPS TO
LIKELYS ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY AND THE PALMER DVD AFTER 9Z
AND LASTING THROUGH 15Z WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
SHOULD SEE SHOWERS SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE PLAINS
BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z WITH BEST CHANCES OF SEEING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE SE MTS AND AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RATON MESA. WITH
THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE I-25 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

CURRENTLY...STRONG UPPER JET AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PUSHING INTO THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH INITIAL WAVE OF
PRECIP APPROACHING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS OF 22Z. EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS HAVE BECOME BREEZY AND VERY MILD AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH STRONG WINDS (GUSTS 35-45 KTS) DEVELOPING IN USUAL GAP
FLOW LOCATIONS (WALSENBURG/CANON CITY/PUEBLO WEST) AND ALSO ALONG
AND IN THE LEE OF THE SAWATCH RANGE (SALIDA/BUENA VISTA) FROM
MONARCH PASS NORTHWARD.

TONIGHT...AS JET AND UPPER TROUGH CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD
COLORADO...SNOW WILL BREAK OUT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY
00Z...WITH HEAVY SNOW LIKELY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NORTH OF
MONARCH PASS WHERE W-NW OROGRAPHIC FLOW IS MOST FAVORABLE. SNOW WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY STRONG WINDS...AND LOCATIONS AT AND ABOVE
PASS LEVEL WILL LIKELY GUST 40-50 KTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
COMBINATION OF SNOW/BLOWING SNOW WILL MAKE FOR EXTREMELY DIFFICULT
TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING MONARCH...TENNESSEE AND FREMONT PASSES.
SNOW AMOUNTS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE LA GARITA AND SAN JUAN RANGES
WILL BE LIGHTER AS W-NW OROGRAPHIC FLOW IS LESS FAVORABLE...BUT
WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW AND STRONG WINDS LIKELY HERE AS
WELL...CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN INCLUDING WOLF CREEK AND
CUMBRES PASSES WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TOWARD MORNING. CURRENT
WINTER STORM WARNINGS/ADVISORIES LOOK ON TRACK AT THIS POINT AND
WON`T MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS. FARTHER EAST...SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD
TOWARD THE SANGRES AND PIKES PEAK BY MORNING...WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATION OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
THE NIGHT...KEEPING TEMPS MILD OVER MOST LEE SLOPES AND OVER THE
PLAINS. COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP QUICKLY SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS
BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A SHIFT TO 25-35 KNOT NORTH
WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES.

ON SUNDAY...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND 150 KNOT JET DIVES SOUTH TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS.
AGAIN...CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER
SNOW...WITH LIGHTER SNOWS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. EASTERN MOUNTAINS
WILL SEE OCCASIONAL -SHSN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...THOUGH WITH
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MOST ACCUMS AGAIN LOOK LIMITED TO THE
HIGHER PEAKS. I-25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS WILL SEE A FEW -SHSN/-SHRA
12Z-15Z SUN MORNING IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH. NW WINDS WILL WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE
DAY...AND WHILE INCOMING AIR MASS ISN`T ARCTIC IN ORIGIN...IT WILL
STILL BE A FAIRLY COLD/RAW DAY ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO HAVE DISAGREEMENTS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH THE ENSEMBLES SPLIT BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS. THE ECMWF FEATURES A RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES WHILE
THE GFS SUPPORTS TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. GIVEN THE
UPWARD TREND IN THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AND BETTER HANDLING OF THIS
FEATURE BY THE ECMWF...CONTINUE TO TREND WITH THE ECMWF THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...TWO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL BE
OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT...AND DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL BE ONGOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
LIGHTER SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR OVER THE SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA RANGES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MODELS STILL UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE EASTERN
PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY
WITH A LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA
REGIONS...WHILE THE REST OF THE PLAINS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY.
FOLLOWED THE TREND OF THE NAM AND ECMWF...WITH SNOW DISSIPATING
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA SUNDAY
EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH TEENS
EXPECTED FOR LOWS.

A SECOND DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL DROP SOUTH
INTO COLORADO ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
GENERALLY LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR THE MOUNTAIN REGIONS. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHERE PERIODS OF MORE MODERATE
SNOW ARE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND
COOL HIGHS IN THE 30S TO 40S. LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE
PLAINS DRY ON MONDAY. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO
THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTING
UP ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT SNOW TO DISSIPATE FOR MOST AREAS
MONDAY EVENING...WITH LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FOLLOWING THE ECMWF THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO FLAT RIDGING ACROSS THE
AREA BY THURSDAY. BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD...EXPECT
LIGHT PERIODS OF SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC FLOW. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ON NORTHWEST FACING
PEAKS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONCE THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA...EXPECT SNOW TO END FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH 50S FOR THE PLAINS FOR HIGHS. A COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY BACK INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
STRONG WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE LEE OF THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...AND EXPECT AREAS OF 40-50 KNOT GUSTS ALONG THE LOWER
EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE SAWATCH AND SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGES
THROUGH THIS EVENING. KCOS MAY STAY SHADOWED ENOUGH BY PIKES
PEAK TO KEEP WINDS THERE LIGHT (10-15 KT)SW...WHILE GAP FLOW HAS
REACHED KPUB AS OF 22Z...WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE AT THE
TERMINAL INTO THE EVENING. SNOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CONTDVD
THIS EVENING WITH +SN BLSN AND WIDESPREAD MTN OBSCURATIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST COLORADO AFTER 09Z...WITH NORTH WINDS 20-30
KTS EXPECTED AT KCOS AND KPUB CONTINUING THROUGH 23Z. A BRIEF -SHSN
WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH SITES SUNDAY MORNING AND AGAIN SUN
AFTERNOON...BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AND PROBABILITY LOOKS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ064-066-068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ059-061.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN


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