Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 250527

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1127 PM MDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Issued at 652 PM MDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Updated to expire Red Flag Warning across the San Luis Valley.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 350 PM MDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Red Flag conditions are ongoing in the San Luis Valley and will
leave the Red Flag Warning in effect through 7 pm today.  An upper
level disturbance will be moving through WY and mainly northern CO
tonight.  This system will bring pcpn to the central CO mtns and the
current advisory for that area still looks good.  The southwest CO
mtns should see some pcpn as well, especially toward morning, but
snow accumulations should not be as much as in the central mtns.  As
for the eastern mtns tonight, there may be some isold showers over
the higher elevations but shouldn`t amount to much.

On Tue and upper level trof moves into UT early in the day, and then
moves into CO in the afternoon.  This system will bring increasing
chances for pcpn along the Continental Divide in the morning hours.
In the afternoon a cold front drops south thru the southeast plains.
The NAM has strong northerly acrs much of the plains thru 00Z, while
the GFS isn`t as strong with the northerly push and it turns the
winds easterly in the late afternoon.  During the afternoon hours,
pcpn continues along the Continental Divide but also spreads across
the rest of the area.   A few inches of snow can be expected over
the higher mountain areas on Tue.  Temps Tue will be cooler as this
system moves into the area, with highs expected to be in the upper
50s to mid 60s acrs most of the southeast plains and in the 50s in
the San Luis and Upper Arkansas River Valleys.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 350 PM MDT Mon Apr 24 2017

...Cool and unsettled through the weekend...

Tuesday night-Wednesday...A broad upper trough continues to lift out
across the Rockies Tuesday night and into the Central High Plains
through the day Wednesday. Latest models continue to indicate UVV
and moisture increasing across the eastern mts and plains through
the afternoon supporting widespread rain and snow showers across the
area through the late evening and overnight hours, with showers
diminishing from northeast to southwest through Wednesday morning.
With brisk north to northeast SFC-H7 winds of 20-30kts developing
through the evening, should see best pops across the favored
southeast mountains and immediate adjacent plains and have issued a
winter storm watch for the higher elevations of the Wet and Sangre
de Cristo Mountains from 00Z-18Z Wednesday, with up to a foot
possible. Snow levels look to lower to between 6000-7000 feet
Tuesday night/Wednesday morning and may need winter weather
advisories for the lower elevations of the southeast mountains, as
well as the Wet Mountain Valley and the higher terrain along and
west of the Southern I-25 Corridor. Increasing northwest flow aloft
progged across the area Wednesday will allow for chances of showers
across the ContDvd, especially the Central Mts, through the day,
with temperatures remaining generally below seasonal levels.

Wedensday night-Thursday...Another embedded disturbance is progged
to translate across the Northern Rockies and out into the Northern
High Plains through the day Thursday. This will allow for increasing
chances of showers across the ContDvd Wednesday night, with showers
spreading south and east across the area through the day Thursday.
Higher elevations of the ContDvd could see snow accumulations of 3
to 6 inches through the period, with lesser amounts expected across
th rest of the higher terrain and snow levels expected to remain AOA
8,000 feet. Breezy northwest winds will help warm temps across the
lower elevations into the 60s on Thursday.

Friday-Monday...Another strong and dynamic Spring Storm system could
affect all of south central and Southeast Colorado through the
weekend, with latest runs of the GFS, GFS ensemble, and ECMWF
carving out a deep upper trough across the Rockies on Friday, with a
closed upper low slowly lifting out across the state through the day
Saturday before continuing out across the High Plains on Sunday.
These solutions would support a widespread heavy rain and snow event
across the area, especially the eastern mountains and plains, Friday
and Saturday. The latest run of the Canadian, however, splits the
system in two, with one piece going north and the other going south
of southeast Colorado, and does not support a high impact event
across the area this weekend.

Although it remains too early to talk about specific details on the
track and the affects of this system across the area, peoples living
in or planning travel across south central and southeast Colorado
this weekend need to stay weather aware and keep track of the latest
forecasts on this potentially high impact event.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1124 PM MDT Mon Apr 24 2017

VFR conditions are expected through at least 18 utc tomorrow (TUE)
at all 3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS.

A weather system will move into the region by later tomorrow
afternoon and last into the night. The best chance of MVFR
conditions will be at KPUB, although the other two locations may
see brief periods of MVFR. Winds will get gusty from the north
tomorrow evening.


Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Tuesday for COZ058-060.

Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday
morning for COZ073-075-080.



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