Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 200507
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1107 PM MDT FRI AUG 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 239 PM MDT Fri Aug 19 2016

...Strong cold front moving south...

Currently...

At 2 pm, a relatively strong cold front was located over northern
Colorado and was moving south. Quite a few thunderstorms were
developing along and behind this front across N CO and SW WY. Across
our region...widely scattered showers and thunderstorms were noted,
mostly across the higher terrain, although there were a few over the
Palmer Divide and Raton Mesa.

Temperatures will relatively cool across the area...with 70s and low
80s across the Plains and 70s valleys.

Later today and into tonight...

The front will likely cross into El Paso county aoa 5 pm-ish and
then barrel down the plains through early evening. Thunderstorms are
likely across the Palmer Divide...and a few of them will likely be
strong to marginally severe as CAPE values are above 1000 J/KG and
roughly 30 knots of deep shear is in place. The brunt of the
activity will likely end across the Pikes Peak region by 8 pm...but
will move down the remainder of the Plains through the mid to late
evening hours. These storms will also be on the strong side.

The southern mountains will likely see storms through early evening
and a few of these storms could produce locally heavy rains...so
Flash Flooding on the burn scars will be possible.

Some storms will likely linger across the Raton Mesa into the early
morning hours...with some precip possibly lingering along the CO/NM
border towards sunrise.

Min temps tomorrow morning will be rather cool...with 40s likely
across most of El Paso county and 50s across the plains.

An inch or two of snow is not out of the question across the top of
Pikes Peak this evening.

Tomorrow...

A cool day is in store for the region as temps will likely not get
out of the 70s across the plains. It will likely be rather stable
over most of the lower elevations tomorrow so precip chances over
the plains is low. Best chance of precip will likely be relegated to
the mountains...especially south of highway 50. SW mtns and S Sangres
will see the best chance of afternoon storms.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 239 PM MDT Fri Aug 19 2016

Northwest flow aloft will transition to weak westerly over the next
couple days.  Doesn`t appear to be too much forcing to keep
thunderstorms going Saturday evening...especially across the plains
where atmosphere looks capped. Certainly sufficient residual low
level moisture and upslope for another round of scattered
thunderstorms for the southeast mountains...but should see evening
convection stay confined to the mountain areas and west of I-25
through the evening.

Similar scenario for Sunday with weak westerly flow over the area
aloft. Doesn`t appear to be any distinct shortwaves set to come
across the area...but with troffing across the desert
southwest...its not too hard to envision a weak disturbance embedded
in the flow. Sfc dew points mix out some during the afternoon..which
should drop back CAPE values to around 1000 J/kg...though NAM
maintains an axis of higher dew points across northern portions of
the plains suggesting the potential for a strong storm or two across
this region. Deep layer shears are 20 kts or less...which should
limit the threat for severe thunderstorms. Thus...locally heavy
rainfall will continue to be the primary concern. There may be a
little better shot for thunderstorms to drift out onto the plains
during the evening hours given no cap across the plains.

Thunderstorm chances ramp up for Mon and Tuesday across the
mountains as a pacific trof approaches and moves across the area.
Dew points are not terribly high across the plains...so main concern
will revolve around heavy rainfall/localized flash flood potential
across the mountains...though signal doesn`t appear to be strong
enough to suggest a widespread flash flood potential these days.
Temperatures will warm back to near to slightly above normal.

Northern stream trof will send a cold front through the eastern
plains Tuesday evening. Initially low level dew point return does
not look all that high behind the front...but with some degree of
upslope flow...there will be a better chance for showers and
thunderstorms across the southeast mountains and plains for Wed.
Temperatures will drop back to below normal.

The end of the work week continues to look relatively active for the
mountains as periodic disturbances move through westerly flow aloft.
This should keep daily chances for thunderstorms over the
mountains...a few of which may drift off into the plains during the
evening hours. CAPEs looks limited especially across the plains
...but certainly a strong storm or two will be possible across the
mountains carrying a heavy rainfall and small hail threat. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1059 PM MDT Fri Aug 19 2016

Rain is moving off to the southeast of KPUB at this time. Main
concern overnight is possibility of persistent IFR conditions,
particularly at KCOS. With residual moisture and southeast winds,
could see low cigs hold on through 15Z or possibly 16-17Z. Some
localized FG is also possible in the 09-15Z period. At KPUB. cigs
should generally stay MVFR but could briefly turn IFR. The
widespread clouds and precip tonight into Sat morning should help
stabilize the Plains, which will keep most of the afternoon
convection over the mts and areas south of Hgwy 50. So, will leave
VCTS out of the I-25 corridor TAFs, but an ISOLD late afternoon or
evening storm cannot be ruled out. ISOlD-SCT storms are more
likely at KALS. Rose

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...ROSE



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