Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 042136
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
336 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY...

THE STORM FOCUS THIS EVENING WILL PRIMARILY BE OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS.  LESS ACTIVITY OVER THE PLAINS DUE TO WARM AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.  SO FAR TODAY...MAINLY
HEAVY RAIN AND PEA SIZE HAIL...AS EVIDENCED WITH THE STORMS EARLIER
OVER THE WALDO SCAR AND PIKES PEAK REGION.  AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES...SHOULD SEE THESE TRENDS CONTINUE...WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCAL FLOODING THE PRIMARY THREATS.  PEA SIZE HAIL...LIGHTNING AND
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH WILL BE OTHER THREATS...WITH THE HAIL
SIZE POSSIBLY CREEPING UP A BIT MORE.  ACTIVITY FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...PER HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...WILL PERSIST A BIT INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...BUT THEN DIE DOWN BETWEEN 8 AND 9 PM.  HOWEVER...FOR
THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT SAN LUIS VALLEY AREAS...THE
ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST LATE INTO THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

TOMORROW SHOULD BRING A BIG UPSWING IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS A
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE NOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA...ROUNDS
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE OVER COLORADO AND PASSES THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD
BRING AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE WITH IT...ALONG WITH INCREASED LIFT AND
INSTABILITY.  IT APPEARS TO BE HAVING A PRETTY VIGOROUS IMPACT OVER
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE MODELS BRING IT
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING PEAK HEATING SUNDAY.  SO...INCREASED STORM
COVERAGE FOR TOMORROW.  PRIMARY THREATS LOOK TO BE LIGHTNING...HEAVY
RAIN...PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH.  0-6KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES DO NOT LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS POINT...ONLY ABOUT
15-30 KNOTS AT BEST...SO THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT DOESN`T SEEM
GREAT.  HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CAPE FOR A FEW STORMS TO PUT
OUT 1 INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH.  ONCE
AGAIN...MONITORING FOR LOCAL FLOOD PROBLEMS WILL AGAIN BE
NECESSARY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS STILL
APPEARS A TOUCH FASTER AND MORE CONSOLIDATED WITH THE INITIAL PUSH
OF THE FRONT...WHILE NAM12 BRINGS A REINFORCING SURGE THROUGH THE
PLAINS MONDAY MORNING. MODELS VARY ON THE AMOUNT OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WHICH LINGERS BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY...WITH NAM ON THE DRIER SIDE...AND GFS INDICATING A
SLIGHTLY WETTER SOLUTION. ECMWF SEEMS TO SIDE WITH THE DRIER NAM
SO HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN INTO THE ISOLATED CATEGORY FOR MOST
AREAS ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. THE MOUNTAINS
MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE WHERE THE MONSOON PLUME MAY STAY ACTIVE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR MONDAY...COOLER EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS LOOKING
CAPPED ACROSS MAJORITY OF THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...WITH DEW POINTS
INCREASING INTO THE 50S FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS/UPPER ARKANSAS
RIVER VALLEY...AND EVIDENCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH A TRIGGER FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...WHICH WILL RAISE THE
CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUD/ROCK SLIDES IN THE MOUNTAINS.

MOST OF THE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES MONDAY EVENING...THOUGH SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WITHIN THE MOISTURE PLUME.

TUESDAY LOOKS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO MONDAY WITH MAJORITY OF THE CAPE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT I-25 CORRIDOR. WITH EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW BENEATH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
CAPE FOR ONE OR TWO STRONG TO NEAR SEVERE STORMS IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN.

MOISTURE PLUME STARTS TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH
THERE WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF CA PUSHES INLAND LATE IN THE
WEEK...EVENTUALLY SPREADING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT ON
THIS...SO WILL TREND POPS DOWNWARD...WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING
BACK INTO THE 90S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 234 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. PRIMARY
CONCERNS WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BRIEF PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS DUE
TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF
ACROSS THE REGION STARTING AROUND 03Z AS RADIATIVE COOLING ALLOWS
FOR STABLE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH ENHANCED ACTIVITY STARTING BETWEEN
18-21Z NEAR THE TAF SITES AS A BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTHWARD LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO CENTRAL CO.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...LW


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