Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 221010
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
310 AM MST THU JAN 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 AM MST THU JAN 22 2015

...RETURN TO DRY WEATHER...

UPPER LOW IS NOW JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND WILL TRACK
NEARLY DUE SOUTH THROUGH NM TODAY. LIFT AND PRECIP ARE NOW MOVING E
AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA. STILL SEEING SOME LIGHT SN GENERALLY SOUTH
OF HGWY 160...BUT ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT...SO WILL
CANCEL REMAINING WINTER ADVISORIES/WARNINGS WITH THIS MORNING`S ZONE
PACKAGE. WILL SEE REMAINING SN WIND DOWN BY MID MORNING...AND THEN
SOME GRADUAL CLEARING FROM N TO S LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THE SNOWPACK...TEMPS TODAY WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO
GET MUCH ABOVE FREEZING OVER THE PLAINS. REST OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN
IN THE 20S TODAY.

CLEARING OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO SOME COLD MINS FOR FRI MORNING.
COULD SEE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE PLAINS AND SOME NEGATIVE READINGS
FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. WILL SEE A PRETTY GOOD HEIGHT GRADIENT AND
MODERATE MID-LEVEL WINDS TONIGHT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING
TROUGH...AND THIS SHOULD HELP MITIGATE THE THREAT OF FOG OR LOW
CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING. COULD BE A BIT BREEZY OVERNIGHT
OVER THE SPANISH PEAKS REGION AND SRN I-25 CORRIDOR...WITH SW WINDS
GUSTING IN THE 20 KT RANGE. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM MST THU JAN 22 2015

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DURING THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND
THEN SOUTHWESTERLY BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. FOR THE MOST PART...THIS
PATTERN WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. IN
ADDITION...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL ALL AREAS FOR MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIF PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED...THE BROAD SW FLOW WILL
BRING SOME MOISTURE IN FROM THE PACIFIC NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SOME HIGH MTN SNOW SHOWERS AND VALLEY RAINS.

MAX TEMPS ON THE PLAINS FRI WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH 40S MOST
AREAS. FROM SAT INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK EXPECT 50S AND 60S PLAINS.
THESE TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR.

IT IS OF INTEREST TO NOTE THE FORECASTED PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE
GREATER EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEXT WEEK. IT HAS BEEN QUITE A
AWHILE SINCE THERE HAS BEEN SUCH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THIS REGION
AND SUCH A STRONG JET SO DEEP INTO THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW THE LONGER RANGE MODELS
DISPLAY THIS PATTERN CHANGE...BOTH THE EC AND GFS INDICATE THIS
BROAD PATTERN. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 248 AM MST THU JAN 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AT KPUB ND KCOS. COULD SEE SOME BRIEF
MVFR OR LOCALIZED IFR NR KALS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD RETURN
TO VFR BY 15-16Z. TONIGHT...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME
LOCALIZED PC FG OR BR...GIVEN CLEARING SKIES AND SNOW COVER...BUT
PROBABILITY LOOKS TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE


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