Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 142159

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
259 PM MST Tue Feb 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 258 PM MST Tue Feb 14 2017

Mid and high level clouds over the southeast quarter of CO will move
out of the area tonight as an upper level low moves off the the
south and east of the area, and an upper level ridge builds over the
state.  The upper ridge will be over the state Wed through Thu
although a weak disturbance is expected to move thru the upper ridge
over ern CO and wrn KS Wed afternoon, bringing just some high level
clouds.  The weather will be dry acrs southeast and south central CO
tonight through Thu.  High temps on Wed will be in the upper upper
50s to lower 60s acrs the southeast plains, with upper 40s to mid
50s in the lower elevations of Chaffee county and western Fremont
county, and in the upper 30s to lower 40s in the San Luis Valley.
Temps on Thu will be even warmer with upper 60s and lower 70s over
the southeast plains, 50s to lower 60s in western Fremont county and
the lower elevations of Chaffee county, and in the 40s in the San
Luis Valley.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 258 PM MST Tue Feb 14 2017

Thursday Night and Friday...Dry Thursday night and then just
isolated showers return to the ContDvd Friday aftn and eve as the
next Pacific low pressure storm system approaches the West Coast.
Southwest flow aloft increases, keeping rather mild temps in place
through Friday. Look for max temps in the 60s to around 70F for the
plains, and 40s and 50s for the high valleys.

Saturday through Tuesday...The EC and GFS models are fairly similar
through Sunday morning, as the incoming upper low pressure system
digs far south along the coast, then edges to the east across the CA
Baja late Saturday. This keeps isolated to low-end scattered pops
for the mts, and mainly along the ContDvd with an emphasis on the
southwest mts through Saturday. Starting Sunday morning the models
start to diverge with the GFS placing the upper low within the
longwave trough a bit further north, which would affect the forecast
area with higher snow amounts. Found a decent middle ground of the
two models, and the best window for snow for the mts will come
Sunday evening and overnight into early Monday morning. By Monday
extended models indicate the upper low will dive to the southeast
once again, and cross southern Texas Monday and Tuesday. Flow aloft
will become southwesterly once again for the next work week, and
mainly dry conditions with perhaps isolated showers for the central
mts are then expected through Tue. With this type of solution, very
little if anything is forecast across the eastern plains. As for
temps, mild readings are expected over the weekend and through
midweek with highs in the 40s and 50s for the high valleys, and
upper 50s to mid 60s for the plains. Moore


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 258 PM MST Tue Feb 14 2017

With an upper level ridge building over the area through Wed, VFR
conditions are expected at the terminal forecast sites.




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