Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 252135
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
335 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

...LIGHT MONSOON FLOW CONTINUES...

UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL SHIFT FROM A POSITION CENTERED OVER
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON TO A POSITION CENTERED OVER
WESTERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW A CONTINUED LIGHT
MONSOON FLOW INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA.  WITH A LOT OF WARM AIR ALOFT...LITTLE SHEAR AND NO
SIGNIFICANT TRIGGERS...CONVECTION WILL TEND TO BE RATHER ISOLATED
AND BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.  HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS COULD BE CLOSE DUE TO THE LARGE AMOUNTS OF CAPE
AVAILABLE OUT THAT WAY.  ONCE AGAIN TODAY...THERE IS PROBABLY CLOSE
TO 3000 OR 4000 JOULES OF CAPE AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTION ALONG THE
KANSAS BORDER.  SO...THE THREAT OF SOME LOCAL STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION CONTINUES.

SUNDAY SHOULD BRING AN UPSWING IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE REGION OVERALL.  AS THE UPPER HIGH CENTER SHIFTS OVER
OKLAHOMA...THIS SHOULD ALLOW A LITTLE BETTER MONSOON MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO.  ALSO...SHEAR VALUES SHOULD COME
UP A LITTLE AS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND.
THE INCREASE IN SHEAR WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT NORTHEAST COLORADO BUT
MAY HAVE A TRICKLE DOWN AFFECT ON SOUTHEAST COLORADO.  SEVERAL MODEL
RUNS HAVE HINTED AT MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  IF THAT HAPPENS...THEN OUTFLOW FROM
NORTHEAST COLORADO STORMS COULD SEND OUTFLOW OUR WAY...SETTING OFF
STORMS IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO.  PRIMARY STORM THREATS SUNDAY WILL BE
THE SAME AS TODAY BUT WITH A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

POPS AND TEMPERATURES REMAIN MAIN LONGER TERM CONCERNS. UPPER
RIDGING CENTERED OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AT 00Z MONDAY SHIFTS EAST
INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI BY 06Z WEDNESDAY BEFORE MAKING ITS WAY
WEST INTO THE 4-CORNERS REGION BY LATER NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...NORTHERLY SURGES MOVE INTO/ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT...TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...
OCCASIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES AND SURFACE SURGES/BOUNDARIES WILL
ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRIMARILY AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT-TIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS(SOME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
TO POTENTIALLY MARGINALLY SEVERE AT TIMES) TO BE NOTED OVER THE
FORECAST DISTRICT FROM SUNDAY EVENING INTO NEXT SATURDAY.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE NOTED FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN POSSIBLY AGAIN FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...DURING THE LONGER TERM...ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL LATE
JULY TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT FROM SUNDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES THEN PROJECTED BY LATER NEXT WEEK...
ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM A
POSITION CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON TO A POSITION
CENTERED OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN
COLORADO WILL REMAIN UNDER LIGHT MONSOON FLOW AROUND WESTERN SIDE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AREA.  THIS WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. PRIMARY STORM THREATS WILL BE
LIGHTNING...ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AND SPOTTY SMALL HAIL.  HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE
LIMITS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHERE THREATS WILL INCLUDE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH OR MORE...HAIL TO 1 INCH OR MORE IN
DIAMETER...AND FLASH FLOODING.  PRIMARILY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
THROUGH SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH LOCAL MVFR TO IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

FOR THE KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES...PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH
SUNDAY.  HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR KCOS AND KALS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  WILL CARRY VCTS IN THE
FORECASTS FOR THESE 2 SITES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TODAY.  WILL
KEEP VCTS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR KPUB DUE ITS LOWER ELEVATION AND
GREATER DISTANCE FROM THE MOUNTAINS.  MUCH THE SAME SCENARIO FOR ALL
3 SITES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$



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