Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 221729

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1129 AM MDT Sat Oct 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 351 AM MDT Sat Oct 22 2016

...Critical Fire Weather Conditions this afternoon in and near the
SE Mts...

A weak embedded wave rounding the top of the upper ridge this
morning will help increase winds across the mountains and portions
of the I-25 corridor.  Dew points are still really low and humidity
values have exhibited poor recoveries so far this morning. With lee
trof deepening and shifting eastward today...some gusty winds will
spread into the lower elevations along and west of I-25 from late
morning through mid afternoon.  Winds aloft decrease through late wind gust potential should tail downward between 21z
and 00z. High res models indicate Fremont county should see a
prolonged enough period of critical fire weather conditions from
late morning through the afternoon to warrant a Red Flag
warning...with conditions looking spottier in coverage across the
higher peaks and east facing slopes of the Sangres and Wet
Mountains.  Have decided to throw in zone 225 as grids are hitting
criteria in about 50% of the area...but think this will be hedged
towards the lower eastern slopes of the northern Sangre De Cristo
range where conditions will be most likely to be met. Higher
elevations of the Junkins fire could see a window of critical to
near critical fire weather conditions...but really looks like
locations with greatest likelihood will be just north and to the south
of the fire area. High res models are pretty consistent in gusty
winds spreading through La Veta pass into the Walsenburg
will include them as well.  Lower elevations of zone 220...including
the Buena Vista and Salida area will likely hit criteria as
well...but coverage across the zone doesn`t look widespread enough
as most of the higher elevations stay above the 15% critical
humidity threshold. And conditions look too spotty and brief to
warrant including Teller county at this point. Bottom line...if you
are in or near the central and southeast mountains today...avoid
burning...or any activities which could start wildfires.

Otherwise...temperatures today will be well above average
again...with max temperatures threatening records which
Colorado Springs: 80 in 2003
Pueblo:  85 in 2003
Alamosa:  76 in 2003

Winds decrease during the late afternoon so will run the Red Flag
warning until 6 PM.  Cool front will move into the southeast plains
after midnight.  Mtn Valleys...where winds decouple...should see
another cold night as the dry airmass allows atmosphere to radiate
efficiently.  Meanwhile...winds behind the front should help keep
min temps above freezing for the plains. -KT

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 351 AM MDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Sunday-Monday...Southwest flow aloft increases through the day
on Monday, with upper level ridging building across the state
continues east of the area, as a deep upper trough digs across the
Pac NW Coast. Models continue to indicate moisture slowly increasing
across the area, though have slowed the progress of energy ejecting
from the Pac NW system and have tapered back pops across the area
for Monday, keeping isolated pops across the higher terrain along
and west of the ContDvd for Monday afternoon. Otherwise, should see
slightly cooler temperatures across the area, although still above
average, with highs in the 70s across the plains and mainly 50s and
60s across the higher terrain. Models also continue to indicate some
increase in moisture within the southwest flow aloft and currently
not anticipating any fire weather concerns through this period.

Monday night-Tuesday....Latest models continue to indicate a quick
shot of precipitation, mainly for the higher terrain along and west
of the ContDvd, as short wave ejects across the Great Basin Monday
night and across the Rockies through the day on Tuesday. Still some
differences on location, timing and how far precipitation spreads
east, with northern areas of the plains seeing the best chances of
any precipitation on Tuesday as a weak cold front moves across the

Wednesday-Friday...Drier and warmer weather on tap for Wednesday as
upper level ridging rebuilds across the state. Models differ there
after with timing and location of more Pacific energy moving across
the area, with the operational GFS likely overdone with
precipitation into the upcoming weekend. At any rate, have kept
sight pops across the higher terrain on Friday, with temperatures
remaining at or above seasonal levels through the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Sat Oct 22 2016

VFR conditions expected at all terminals today and tonight. KPUB
will see some breezy west winds with a few gust to 20 kts, while
winds will be a little lighter at KCOS and KALS. Winds will
decrease this evening, then a weak front will bring a northerly
wind shift at KCOS and KPUB around or after 09z.


Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for COZ222-225-229.



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