Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 200503
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1103 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY GRACED VARIABLE CLOUDS IN COMBINATION
ISOLATED PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
ABOVE SEASONAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.  METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES
DURING THE NEAR/SHORT TERM INCLUDE POPS AND TEMPERATURES.

RECENT NEAR/SHORT TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND REAL-TIME DATA INDICATE THAT ENOUGH UPPER ENERGY WILL
BE ROTATING ACROSS THE FORECAST DISTRICT INTO THIS EVENING ALLOWING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE...PRIMARILY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.

FOR MONDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED AS CLOSED
UPPER LOW NEARS FAR WEST TEXAS.  IN ADDITION...GRADIENT WINDS ARE
PROJECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WELL-BEHAVED THROUGH MONDAY.

ABOVE SEASONAL MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS TO WATCH...

FIRST SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON
SPREADING PRECIPITATION INTO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE SYSTEM
RACES EAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN CROSSES
THE PLAINS QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE MOST PRECIPIATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL FALL ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WITH CONSIDERABLY
LESS PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND EVEN LESS
PRECIPITATION FOR THE PLAINS. THE SYSTEM IS JUST TOO
PROGRESSIVE...COMING ACROSS TOO FAST...TO BE A BIG PLAYER IN THE
PRECIPITATION DEPARTMENT. THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE COULD SEE SOME
WETTING RAINS AND A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 10000 OR 11000
FEET...BUT FOR AREAS FARTHER EAST...THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS
CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER AND MUCH MORE SCATTERED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE PLAINS. THERE MAY END UP BEING A BIT MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION
ON THE PLAINS ALONG AND NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN CONVECTION GETTING
ORGANIZED INTO A LINE ABOUT THAT TIME. BUT...NOT ALL OF THE MODELS
ARE SHOWING THIS...AND MOST OF THE ORGANIZATION SEEMS TO TAKE
PLACE IN KANSAS...SO NOT TOO SOLD ON THIS IDEA.

AFTER THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY SYSTEM...WARM HIGH PRESSURE
TAKES HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF
WARMER THAN AVERAGE...DRY FALL WEATHER...ADDING BREEZY CHINOOK
WINDS TO EQUATION BY SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY...THE FORECAST BECOMES A
LITTLE LESS CLEAR. THE GFS BRINGS ANOTHER FAST MOVING WAVE INTO
THE STATE ON THIS DAY...WHICH WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE SOME RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND SOME STIFF
WESTERLY WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE ECMWF...ON THE OTHER HAND...HAS NO
SIGN OF THIS CHANGE THROUGH SUNDAY...HOLDING ON FIRMLY TO A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 HOURS. TOO FAR OUT TO
CALL AT THIS POINT. HAVE TO FOLLOW UP ON THIS LATER. LW

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE CWA OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS...INCLUDING THE 3 MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING ON MONDAY...MAINLY OVER THE MTS. MOORE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOORE



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