Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 232130
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
330 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

...RECORD HIGHS FOR TOMORROW...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING WEAK
TO MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE DESERT SW CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTH AND
EAST. REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING SOME HIGH LEVEL
WAVE CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE NORTHERN FRONT RANGE AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...NO BIG CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST WITH DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER IN THE OFFING...AS UPPER RIDGING ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES. WARM AIR ALOFT AND GENERALLY LIGHT WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FAIRLY MILD...WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND GENERALLY 30S AND
40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FORECAST H7 TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 10C
AND 14C CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AT OR ABOVE RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
PLAINS...MAINLY 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND 40S AT THE PEAKS.
RECORDS FOR FRIDAY OCTOBER 24TH ARE 78F AT COS...83F AT PUB AND 70F
AT ALS...ALL SET IN 2011 AND LOOKS LIKE WILL TIE OR BREAK
THEM...EVEN WITH AN EXPECTED GENERALLY LIGHT THERMALLY AND TERRAIN
DRIVEN WIND REGIME.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

RECORD WARMTH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...BREEZY BUT STILL
WARM MOST AREAS FOR SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH FOR
MONDAY...

UPPER HIGH TO THE SOUTH WILL BUILD NORTHWARD THROUGH SATURDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROF ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
SATURDAY MAY SEE TEMPERATURES APPROACH OR EXCEED RECORD HIGHS FOR
THE DAY WHICH INCLUDE (PUB...87 IN 1959. COS...79 IN 1959.
ALS...75 IN 1959.) THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING WHEN A WEAK IMPULSE EJECTS ACROSS CO AHEAD OF THE
MAIN UPPER TROF ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NRN U.S. ROCKIES.
THERE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM
INITIALLY...AND QPF AMOUNTS IN MODELS ARE LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY AND CONFINED MAINLY TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS LEE TROF
DEEPENS IN RESPONSE TO INCOMING UPPER LEVEL JET. WITH TEMPERATURES
STILL ON THE WARM SIDE...DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR MARGINAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES COOL ALOFT SOME OVER
THOSE ON SATURDAY...AND THIS MAY KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. BUT READINGS WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE THE
AVERAGE AND RH VALUES MAY COME CLOSE TO THE CRITICAL 15 PERCENT
THRESHOLD.

BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS ON
MONDAY BRINGING A BRIEF CHANCE OF RAIN AND EVEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX
FOR THE PIKES PEAK REGION ON MONDAY. SYSTEM IS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE AND MOST OF THE ENERGY PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS STILL LOOK LIGHT AT THIS
POINT IN BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS.

MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE OUR FIRST HARD FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE
SYSTEM MOVES OUT...AND WINDS DECOUPLE. KNOCKED OFF A FEW DEGREES
OFF LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER POTENTIAL FROST
OR FREEZE FOR THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM EMBEDDED
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS LATTER SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY DRY AT THIS POINT...BUT SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH A GENERALLY LIGHT THERMALLY AND TERRAIN DRIVEN
WIND REGIME EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE STATE.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MW



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