Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 091733
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1133 AM MDT WED JUL 9 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1011 AM MDT WED JUL 9 2014

ADJUSTED GRIDS FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS...AND REMOVED MENTION OF
MORNING CONVECTION MOST AREAS AS TSRA DEVELOPMENT WON`T BEGIN
UNTIL 18-19Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT WED JUL 9 2014

MAIN SHORT TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES CONTINUE TO BE POPS AND
TEMPERATURES AS LATEST FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS...REAL-TIME DATA AND
COMPUTER SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE COMBINATION OF ADEQUATE
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IN TANDEM WITH THE DAILY OROGRAPHIC HEATING
CYCLE WILL SUPPORT PRIMARILY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MANY SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT.

SOME STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED...
ESPECIALLY OVER FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA FROM LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS PROJECTED CAPES/LIS AND SHEAR
VALUES NEAR 1500 J/KG...-5C AND 40 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY. LATEST SPC
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS EASTERN PORTIONS OF KIOWA AND PROWERS
COUNTIES IN THEIR SLIGHT RISK OUTLOOK FOR TODAY/THIS EVENING.

IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT INTO THIS EVENING AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEAR ONE INCH AT TIMES.  RECENT AREA BURN SCARS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR ANY POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING ISSUES.

FINALLY...EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT SHOULD
EXPERIENCE WARMER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY WHEN COMPARED TO
YESTERDAYS READINGS...WITH MANY EASTERN LOCATIONS NOTING
TEMPERATURE RISES IN THE 8F TO 13F RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT WED JUL 9 2014

AN UPR RIDGE WL REMAIN OVR THE AREA THRU THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE WL
ALSO REMAIN OVR THE AREA AND WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY THERE WL BE DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS.  THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...AND OVER AND NR THE HYR TRRN.  A SHORTWAVE TROF PASSING BY
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THU NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO SEND A FRONT INTO
SERN CO FRI MORNING.  THIS WL BRING LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND
PROBABLY A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR PCPN ALONG THE ERN MTNS AND I-
25 CORRIDOR.  THERE WL ALSO BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR PCPN OVR THE SERN
PLAINS FRI AS MID LEVEL MSTR INCREASES.  ANOTHER FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE INTO THE SERN PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
INCREASE IN PCPN CHANCES TO EASTERN AREAS.  HIGH TEMPS THU AND FRI
WL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE ERN PLAINS...WITH AROUND NORMAL READINGS
IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.  TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL ALL AREAS ON
SAT...AND THEN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ON SUN. THERE WL PROBABLY BE
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER FOR MONDAY AS THE UPR RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE CENTERED OVR THE GREAT BASIN.  FOR TUE THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
A LARGE UPR LOW CENTERED OVR ONTARIO WITH AN UPR TROF EXTENDING OVR
THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND WESTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO SEND A FRONT INTO CO ON TUE AND TO BRING AN
INCREASE IN MSTR AND PCPN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT WED JUL 9 2014

CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS 18Z-19Z...THEN SPREAD
TOWARD TAF SITES 20Z-22Z. IN GENERAL...WITH LESS MOISTURE TODAY
TSRA SHOULD BE HIGHER BASED AND ONLY VERY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED UNDER THE STRONGER STORMS. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS IN ALL
TAFS FROM 20Z-02Z...THEN VFR CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THU MORNING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...PETERSEN


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