Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 051752
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1052 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1046 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

REFRESHED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

...DRYING AND WARMING TREND STARTS TODAY...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WITH A LONG WAVE
TROUGH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS...AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ALSO INDICATING EASTERN PACIFIC ENERGY TOPPING THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
PAC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE NORTHERN TIER AT THIS TIME.

REGIONAL SATELLITE DATA INDICATING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA...SAVE SOME PATCHY STRATUS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS EL PASO
COUNTY...THE SOUTHERN I-25 AND HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDORS AT THIS TIME. IR
SATELLITE DATA ALSO INDICATING COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL MTS AND HIGH MT VALLEYS...WITH LEADVILLE DOWN TO -11F AS
OF 2 AM MST. WITH THE FRESH SNOWPACK...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING
SKIES...COLORADO SPRINGS HAS SET A NEW RECORD LOW FOR MARCH
5TH...FALLING TO -2F AS OF 2AM...BREAKING THE PREVIOUS RECORD LOW OF
3F SET IN 1969. WHILE STILL COLD IN PUEBLO...4F AS OF 2 AM...THE
RECORD LOW OF -20F SET IN 1948 WILL NOT BE BROKEN TODAY.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY MODERATES THROUGH
TONIGHT AS WEST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD WEST INTO
THE GREAT BASIN. EMBEDDED WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY...SPREADING SOME HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT NO
PRECIPITATION. TEMPS ALOFT WARM SLOWLY THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO STILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES TOPPING OUT IN THE MID
30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MAINLY 20S AND 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WARMEST READINGS ACROSS THE PLAINS TO BE
IN AREAS WITH THE LEAST SNOW COVER TO MELT. WITH THE WARMING
ALOFT... OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE WARMER THAN THIS MORNING...THOUGH
STILL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES...MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS. THE WARMEST READINGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR WITH WEAK LEE TROUGHING AND DOWNSLOPE
FLOW OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO CREEP BACK UPWARD TOWARD SEASONAL
AVERAGES FRI...THEN REMAIN THERE SAT/SUN. WEAK UPPER WAVE DOES
CREST THE WESTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE LAT SAT...THEN DIVES SOUTHWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY SUN EVENING BEFORE EXITING THE REGION
MON MORNING. MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE TO
GENERATE A FEW -SHSN OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS SUN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THOUGH ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE MINOR. UPPER FLOW THEN
FLATTENS MON-WED...WITH WARMER AIR SPREADING ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO AS WINDS BECOME DOWNSLOPE AND 700 MB TEMPS WARM
TO ABOVE 0C BY WED. NEXT PRECIP CHANCE WON`T ARRIVE UNTIL THU OR
LATER AS WESTERN RIDGE IS GRADUALLY REPLACED BY A RATHER BROAD
TROUGH TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1046 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

WEAK UPPER WAVE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS FLIGHT AREA TODAY.
MOISTURE WITH WAVE CONFINED TO THE HIGH LEVELS WITH NO LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR PRECIPITATION. COULD BE SOME PATCHY VALLEY
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE
TO SNOWMELT AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. OTHER THAN THAT...VFR
EXPECTED ALL AREAS NEXT 24 HOURS...INCLUDING KCOS...KPUB AND KALS
TAF SITES.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...LW


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