Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 040348
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
948 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

ADJUSTED SHORT TERM PRECIPITATION AND SKY COVER PER RADAR AND
SATELLITE. ALSO...REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

CURRENTLY...WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY THAT HAS BEEN MAINLY TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SO FAR.
THIS HAS MESHED WELL WITH THE SW MOIST FLOW ALOFT...AS WELL AS THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT THE MODELS HAD SHOWN WOULD BE PASSING OVER
COLORADO TODAY. TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S FOR THE HIGH
VALLEYS...AND INTO THE MID 80S TO 90S FOR THE E PLAINS.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AN UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE PAC NW IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND DROP SOUTH ACROSS WA AND OR OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS...WHILE THE RIDGE OF HI PRES OVER THE CENTRAL US PERSISTS.
THIS WILL KEEP THE STATE UNDER MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH MONSOON
MOISTURE HELPING TO FEED AFTERNOON AND EVE CONVECTION. THE
DISTURBANCE CROSS THE STATE TODAY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTH
AND EXIT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...SO SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO DIMINISH GREATLY AFTER 8 PM AND DROP OFF COMPLETELY
RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE PLUME REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
TOMORROW...AND MODELS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER...THOUGH
WEAKER...UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO HELP SPARK SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE MORNING...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE
ADJACENT AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A MILD NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR THE
HIGH VALLEYS...AND MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR THE PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS
TOMORROW WILL BE COMPARABLE TO THOSE EXPERIENCED TODAY...WITH MID
80S TO MID 90S FOR THE PLAINS...AND 70S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
MOORE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

FRIDAY EVENING...

A RATHER STRONG MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING UP A BAND OF MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...BRINGING A THREAT OF EVENING STORMS TO MAINLY THE
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. SOME OF THIS RAIN COULD BE ON THE HEAVY
SIDE...BUT IT SHOULD BE STEADILY MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST OF
THIS PRECIP SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CONTDVD INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY...

MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NEVADA/IDAHO DURING THE DAY.
MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE STATE AND MONSOON MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAK ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PRECIP MAINLY
OCCURRING ALONG THE CONTDVD REGION. WITH STRONGER FLOW OVER THE
AREA...STORMS WILL BE MOVING AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP TO THE
NORTHEAST.

ANY FLOOD THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MINIMAL
GIVEN THE RATHER QUICK STORM MOTION...BUT IF STORMS WERE TO
TRAIN...THEN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...

PACIFIC COOL FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAYTIME...WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. I EXPECT
VERY LITTLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON THIS DAY...WITH ONLY ISOLD TSRA
OVER THE HIGHER MTNS. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

LABOR DAY...

MODEST RATHER DRY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION.
BRUNT OF MONSOON MSTR SHOULD BE SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH. OVERALL EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY ISOLD TSRA OVER THE CONTDVD. MAX TEMPS MAY
BE A 2-3F COOLER THAN ON SUNDAY.

TUESDAY...

A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND THIS WILL ALLOW
SOME OF THE MONSOON MSTR TO CREEP BACK NORTH. POPS THIS DAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ISOLD...BUT ALL AREAS WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A STORM ON THIS DAY. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAYS
MAX TEMPS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...

COOLER WEATHER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY SLIPS DOWN THE PLAINS. MOST PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER
REGION.

LOOKING A BIT FARTHER OUT...

BOTH GFS AND EC GUIDANCE BRING A PRETTY GOOD COOL FRONT INTO THE
REGION FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE 700 MB ZERO DEGREE ISOTHERM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO...OR GET VERY CLOSE TO....COLORADO BY
SATURDAY. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...INCLUDING THE
THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS...OVER THE NEXT 23
HOURS. THERE IS A SHOT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VCNTY
FOR ALL OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT PLAINS...SO INCLUDED VCTS
FOR ALL THREE SITES UNTIL 03Z TONIGHT. LOOK FOR BRISK S-SW WINDS
ACROSS THE MTS AND AREAS WEST...WHILE THE E PLAINS WILL EXPERIENCE N-
NW FLOW THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE E PLAINS AS OUTFLOW FROM
STORMS TO THE NORTH WASH OVER THE PALMER DVD. LOOK FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE TOMORROW MORNING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE


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