Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 261719
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1019 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

CURRENTLY EARLY THIS MORNING...SNOW...ACCUMULATING AT TIMES IS
FAVORING PORTIONS OF THE WET MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND SECTIONS OF
CROWLEY...OTERO...PUEBLO...HUERFANO AND LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES.  IN
ADDITION...WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH AT TIMES ARE ALSO
BEING OBSERVED AT SOME LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING.

INITIAL UPPER DISTURBANCE IS CONTINUING TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD BE
EXITING THE FORECAST DISTRICT LATER THIS MORNING...ALLOWING FOR AN
OVERALL DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE FROM LATER THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS BREAK IN PRECIPITATION IS PROJECTED TO BE RELATIVELY SHORT-
LIVED HOWEVER AS NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE CWFA FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  EVEN THOUGH A LULL IN ACCUMULATING
PRECIPITATION IS PROJECTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS TODAY...WILL CONTINUE
WITH EXISTING SHORT-TERM WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS INTO TONIGHT AS
NEXT SYSTEM IMPACTS THE CWFA WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

ALSO...RECENT NEAR/SHORT-TERM MODEL TRENDS ARE BEGINNING TO SUGGEST
THAT LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND BACA COUNTY MAY
EXPERIENCE WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA BEGINNING LATER
TONIGHT.  IF LATER COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND REAL-TIME DATA CONTINUE TO TREND IN THIS DIRECTION...WFO PUEBLO
MAY ISSUE ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR THESE LOCATIONS
LATER TODAY.  AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CLOSELY.

SWITCHING METEOROLOGICAL FOCUS TO TEMPERATURES...WELL BELOW SEASONAL
LATE FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH MANY LOCATIONS
STRUGGLING TO REALIZE MAXIMUM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MID 20 RANGE.  FOR TONIGHT...SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
REALIZED OVER MANY LOCATIONS.  FINALLY...IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW AND
COLD...WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 15 MPH TO 25 MPH RANGE AT TIMES ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

...EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...

PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE IN THE LONG RANGE AS THE NEXT UPPER
TROF DROPS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BEFORE EJECTING THE SYSTEM ACROSS CO MONDAY
NIGHT. THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPS IN ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND
ACROSS CO ON WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO
WESTERLY ON FRIDAY...THEN BECOME PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE
WEEKEND THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A
PERSISTENT FETCH OF MOISTURE OFF THE PACIFIC INTO THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY. STRONG OROGRAPHIC SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FUNNELING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...AND MOST ESPECIALLY THE SAN JUANS...WILL
RESULT IN SEVERAL FEET OF SNOW BY MONDAY EVENING...AND THERE WILL
STILL BE YET ONE MORE SYSTEM TO GO. WHILE MAJORITY OF THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS ALONG THE CONTDVD LOOK TO RECEIVE 1-2 FEET DURING THIS
PERIOD...THE EASTERN SAN JUANS SHOULD PICK UP A GOOD 2-3
FEET...WITH LOCALIZED 4 FOOT AMOUNTS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
SUCH AS WOLF CREEK. THIS ALL LOOKS TO BEGIN IN EARNEST FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH WINDS INCREASING ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER JET ALOFT
TRANSLATES OVER THE REGION. EXPECTING THE WORST CONDITIONS OVER
WOLF CREEK FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH EXTENSIVE BLOWING SNOW
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. AVALANCHE DANGER WILL BE HIGH DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH THE ADDED SNOW LOADING. THE SANGRES MAY DO PRETTY WELL
TOO...WITH THE HIGHER PEAKS PICKING UP A FOOT AND POTENTIALLY UP
TO 2...BUT WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...IT WILL MAINLY BE THE WESTERN
SLOPES AND HIGHER PEAKS THAT DO WELL...AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD
DOMINATE THE EASTERN SLOPES. THE WETS AND PIKES PEAK SHOULD SEE
LESSER AMOUNTS.

AS FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...TIMING OF EJECTING SHORTWAVES OUT OF
THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING WAVES OF SNOW ACROSS
THE AREA...AS WAA OVERRIDES THE COLD DOME ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND
WE EXPERIENCE REINFORCING FRONTAL SURGES FROM TIME TO TIME IN THE
WAKE OF EACH OF THE PASSING DISTURBANCES. TIMING OF THESE WILL BE
A CHALLENGE. OVERALL IT APPEARS FRIDAY WILL BE A FAIRLY QUIET DAY
AS THE FIRST WAVE PULLS OFF TO THE EAST AND SNOW SHOWERS DECREASE.
NEXT WAVE MAY COMES ACROSS FRIDAY NIGHT PRODUCING A BAND OF SNOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. NEXT WAVE MAY
COME ACROSS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER POSITION
OF THE BAND OF SNOW ACROSS THE PLAINS DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY
BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS...AS GFS SHIFTS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
NORTHWARD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL CO...WHILE NAM KEEPS THE FRONT WELL
TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA. ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD COMPROMISE FOR
NOW AND LEANS A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE GFS THOUGH A TAD FARTHER
SOUTH. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE CHALLENGING DURING THIS PERIOD
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON THE LOCATION
OF THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND TIMING OF THESE EJECTING
WAVES. HOWEVER THE GENERAL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST PERIODS OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS AS SNOW BANDS DEVELOP ALONG/BEHIND THE
FRONT THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST. WITH FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...THESE WAVES SHOULD BE BRIEF 6-12 HOUR SHOTS OF
SNOW. TOO FAR OUT AT THIS POINT TO TRY TO TRY TO RESOLVE THESE DETAILS...BUT
SUFFICE TO SAY THAT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WINTRY WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR ALL OF THE AREA WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS
AT TIMES.

A STRONGER TROF DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS SHOULD FOCUS SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS ONCE AGAIN ALONG WITH BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT
OF ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE REGION. WEATHER APPEARS TO DRY OUT FOR
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS SOME DEGREE OF RIDGING TAKES PLACE
OUT WEST...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL YOU BELIEVE. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 944 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

KALS...EXPECT SNOW TO PICK UP AGAIN ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER A BRIEF LULL THIS MORNING. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SNOW AT THE TERMINAL WILL BE AFTER 00Z WITH LOWEST CIGS AND VIS
OVERNIGHT. WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENTS IN CIGS AND VIS BY MID DAY
ON FRIDAY.

KCOS...LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL LEAD TO INCREASED SNOW INTENSITY BY THIS EVENING
WITH LIFR CIGS AND VIS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LIGHT SNOW WILL
PERSIST AFTER 07Z THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

KPUB...LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASED
SNOW INTENSITY IS FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING WITH THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE WITH LOWERED CIGS AND VIS. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
AFTER 06Z THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY. MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ072>075-079-
080-087-088.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
COZ081>086.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ094.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ060-064-066>068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MOZLEY


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