Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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894
FXUS65 KPUB 051553
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
853 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 851 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

UPDATED TO TRIM BACK POPS THIS MORNING...AS LIGHT SHSN CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE SOUTH OF HGWY 50. SHOULD SEE DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL BY
18Z. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

...A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS MORNING...

A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE HAS TRIGGERED SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS AS IT DROPS SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING.
NOTHING TOO GREAT...BUT SOME ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 2 INCHES REPORTED
IN PARTS OF COLORADO SPRINGS AS IT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER.  THE
PUEBLO AIRPORT PICKED UP 0.4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH ITS PASSAGE.  NOW
MOST OF THE SNOW IS CONCENTRATED SOUTH AND EAST OF PUEBLO...FROM THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE
SNOWFALL SHOULD CONTINUE PROGRESSING SOUTH AND EASTWARD THIS MORNING
ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN SO
FAR...GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH UP TO 2
INCHES ON A LOCAL BASIS...UNDER THE HEAVIER...MORE PERSISTENT AREAS
OF SNOWFALL.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOSTLY...IF NOT ENTIRELY...SOUTH
OF THE BORDER BY NOON TODAY...WITH CLEARING SKIES TO FOLLOW THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  NOT TOO MUCH COOL AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM SO
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL NOT BE TOO MUCH DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS...MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE IN MOST AREAS...AND UP TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE IN
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. TONIGHT...GENERALLY CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AROUND THE REGION.  HOWEVER...DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT AS UPPER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS MEANS WESTERLY BREEZES WILL PICK UP ALONG
AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT...KEEPING MORNING LOWS MILDER IN
THESE AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING
THE ROCKIES LATE SAT INTO SUN. THIS FEATURE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
PROVIDE A GLANCING BLOW TO THE STATE WHICH SHOULD HELP INCREASE
WINDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS WELL AS PRODUCE SOME STRONGER SFC
WINDS FOR THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING DRY CONDITIONS...SO REMOVED THE ISOLATED POPS FOR THE
CENTRAL MTS. THIS GLANCING BLOW WILL ACTUALLY EASE A COLD FRONT DOWN
THE E PLAINS SUN MORNING...DROPPING TEMPS ON SUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TEMPS REALIZED ON SAT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY STARTING MON...KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY. RELAXING WINDS AS WELL AS A WARMING TREND ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH MAX TEMPS CLIMBING TO
AROUND 60 F FOR THE PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS AS
IT MOVES THROUGH.  THERE ARE ALSO A FEW ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS FARTHER
WEST...BUT NOTHING TOO WIDESPREAD.  DISTURBANCE AND ANY SNOWFALL
SHOULD CLEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER BY NOON TODAY...WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND VFR EXPECTED ALL AREAS AFTER THAT.

DISTURBANCE HAS PROGRESSED SOUTH OF THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES...SO
THE WORST IS OVER IN THESE AREAS WITH GENERALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. COULD
STILL BE A FEW STRAGGLER SNOW SHOWERS AT KCOS AND KPUB UNTIL ABOUT
15Z...BUT DRY SKIES EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

FOR THE KALS TAF...SNOW SHOWERS HAVE SO FAR BYPASSED THE TERMINAL
SITE.  BASED ON RADAR AND SATELLITE...LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE CASE.  UNTIL THE DISTURBANCE MOVES ENTIRELY OUT OF THE
REGION BY 18Z...STILL AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER
COULD MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINAL.  HOWEVER...THIS IS LOOKING LIKE A
LOW PROBABILITY EVENT AT THIS POINT...TOO LOW TO PUT IN THE TERMINAL
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW



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