Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 302151

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
251 PM MST Wed Nov 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 251 PM MST Wed Nov 30 2016

Shortwave ridging over the area today has brought dry weather to
southern CO.  Northwest flow has keep some orographically induced
cloud cover along the Continental Divide...particularly along the
northwest facing slopes of the Sawatch and Mosquito ranges this
afternoon per webcams...though moisture in model soundings looks too
shallow to support much in the way of precipitation out of these.
After 06z moisture deepens along the Continental Divide as the next
upper trof drops southeastward through the Northern U.S Rockies
towards UT and NW CO by 00z Fri. Light snow will spread into the
central mountains...with thickening mid and high cloudiness across
the remainder of the area by morning. Overnight lows will drop
quickly this evening before cloudiness spreads another cold
night is in store...though it will likely be a couple degrees warmer
over the mountains than last night. Lows will drop into the teens to
around 20 across the plains/I-25 corridor with single digits
above/below zero for the mountains/valleys.

Light snow gets going along the Continental Divide on Thursday as
weak forcing from the upper trof approaches.  Snowfall amounts
though the day will remain light...with an inch or two possible
along the west facing slopes of the Sawatch and Mosquitos. will remain dry with temperatures similar to a degree
or two cooler than those of today.  Winds will remain light across
the mountains...though mtn top winds will increase into the 20-40kt
range during the afternoon as the trof approaches.  -KT

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 251 PM MST Wed Nov 30 2016

Thursday night-Friday night...Latest models continue to broadly
agree on the next system digging across the Great Basin Thursday and
splitting as it crosses the Rockies through Friday night. The 12Z
runs of the GFS and ECMWF, as well as the GFS ensemble mean data,
continue to be the furthest south with most of the energy digging
across the southern Great Basin and into the Desert SW through the
day Friday, with the ECMWF indicating a little more overrunning
precipitation across the far southeast plains Friday night than the
GFS. The 12Z NAM remains the furthest north with the system and is a
tad more bullish on precipitation, though with the system just now
coming onshore across the Pac NW coast, I still prefer the southern
GFS/EC solutions. With that said, should see increasing chances of
generally light snow over the higher terrain of the ContDvd Thursday
night, with best pops then spreading south and east through the day
Friday and out across the far southeast plains Friday night. Best
accumulations to favor the southern mts where may need an advisory
on Friday, with some light accumulations also possible across the
rest of the mts and plains. Friday still looks to be the coldest day
of this week, with highs in the 30s to near 40 across the lower
elevations and mainly teens and 20s across the higher terrain.

Saturday-Sunday...Northwest flow aloft across the region Saturday
becomes more westerly through the day on Sunday, with southern
stream cut off low slowly meandering across old Mexico. Pattern
keeps the area dry, save for a few possible flurries across the
central mountains, with temperatures warming to near seasonal levels
through the weekend.

Monday-Wednesday...Longer range models continue to agree on another
deep trough digging across the intermountain west on Sunday which
continues into the Rockies into the middle of the week and behind.
Operational runs of the EC and GFS continue to have various
solutions of a closed low developing across the central Rockies
early next week, though the GFS ensemble mean continues to keep the
main low well north of the area with broad west to southwest flow
aloft across state. At any rate, we will definitely see another shot
of well below seasonal temperatures by the middle of next week, with
at least a chance of some snow areawide, especially across the
higher terrain.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 251 PM MST Wed Nov 30 2016

VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours for the taf sites
with wind speeds remaining under 15 kts.  Clouds will lower and
thicken along the Continental Divide overnight with IFR conditions
and -SHSN expected by morning along the northwest facing slopes. TAF
sites will remain dry...but should see some BKN mid/high wave
cloudiness at times as moisture from the approaching system spreads
in on Thursday. -KT




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