Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 240211
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
811 PM MDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 809 PM MDT SAT AUG 23 2014

UPDATED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT SAT AUG 23 2014

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
MONTANA WITH A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
COLORADO.  SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEGUN DEVELOPING OVER
WESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO.  TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN COLORADO WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF MONTANA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.  MOISTURE IS LACKING...WITH DEWPOINTS HAVING FALLEN
INTO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AND WITH MOST UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WELL TO THE NORTH...NOT ANTICIPATING TOO MUCH MORE
COVERAGE THAN WHAT WE ARE ALREADY SEEING OUT THERE.  THE PRIMARY
AREAS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...NORTHEAST INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE AND NORTHEAST COLORADO
PLAINS.  THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS.  THE DRY AIR AND SPARSE NATURE OF THE CELLS SHOULD
LIMIT ANY FLASH FLOOD THREAT.  HIGH-RES MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH ALL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LIFTING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION BY
MIDNIGHT.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
OVER THE PLAINS...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH BY LATE THIS EVENING
WITH A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AND HELPING TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 50S.

SUNDAY...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO START
DIGGING SOUTH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FORCING FLOW ALOFT OVER
COLORADO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.  MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED AND
MODELS ARE NOT HINTING AT ANY DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
WHICH SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
RELATIVELY LOW.  EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE REGION...WITH LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS POSSIBLE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE
REGION WITH GENERALLY MID 80S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT SAT AUG 23 2014

W-SW UPPER FLOW WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MON AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. STILL NOT MUCH LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION
SUN NIGHT...WHICH WILL LIMIT TSRA COVERAGE TO JUST A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PALMER DIVIDE IN THE EVENING.
AS FLOW TAKES ON A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT MON...MID LEVEL
MOISTURE BEGINS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN VALLEYS...WHERE TSRA COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
CONSIDERABLY BY MON EVENING. OVER THE PLAINS...SURFACE COLD FRONT
STAYS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH WILL KEEP
BETTER CHANCES FOR TSRA NORTH OF THE AREA...THOUGH AT LEAST ISOLATED
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS CONVECTION MOVES OFF THE MOUNTAINS
ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS WITH FAVORABLY SW STEERING FLOW. MAX
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS...THOUGH INCREASING CLOUDS MAY TAKE A FEW DEGF OFF OF HIGHS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

GREAT BASIN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS A SLOW MARCH EASTWARD ON
TUE...WITH ECMWF STILL THE STRONGER/SLOWER MODEL...THOUGH 12Z GFS
HAS BEGUN THE USUAL SLOW DRIFT TOWARD THE EURO SOLUTION. IN EITHER
CASE...CONVECTION LOOKS WIDESPREAD MOST LOCATIONS TUE/TUE NIGHT
WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT ACROSS THE REGION.
MAIN QUESTION IS POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THE EASTERN
PLAINS...AS 12Z GFS HAS THE FRONT NEAR I-70 WHILE 12Z ECMWF AND
18Z NAM KEEP IT FARTHER SOUTH NEAR THE ARK RIVER. WILL KEEP POPS
IN THE SCT RANGE FOR NOW OVER THE PLAINS...THOUGH IF FARTHER SOUTH
FRONTAL POSITION VERIFIES...THREAT OF MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE INCREASED OVER THE NORTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN
SLOPES AS DEEPER MOISTURE OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO SLOSHES
WESTWARD. SUSPECT PRECIP MAY CONTINUE MUCH OF TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING AS UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE WEST OF THE AREA AND
MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL. WED LOOKS COOL AND POTENTIALLY
WET...ESPECIALLY IF SLOWER EURO VERIFIES. HAVE BEGUN TO NUDGE UP
POPS FOR AT LEAST THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BUT MAY NEED TO GO HIGHER IF SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS
CONFIRM THE SLOWER TROUGH EJECTION. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF THEN BRING
DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION FROM THU INTO SAT AS TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AFTER
ONE MORE WARM DAY TUE...WED AND THU WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH
CLOUDS AND PRECIP...BEFORE RENEWED WARMING TREND BEGINS THU AND
CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT SAT AUG 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A FEW SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AT EACH SITE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT KALS OR KCOS. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS EVENING WITH A NORTHERN
WIND SHIFT AT KCOS AND KPUB AFTER 02Z/SUN. ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOZLEY


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