Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 261108
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
508 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 507 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

...WARMER AND DRIER TODAY...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DIGGING
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE WEST COAST. REGIONAL SATELLITE DATA INDICATING SOME MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME.

NO BIG CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH MODERATE
TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION BECOMING MORE
NORTHWEST AND MODERATING THROUGH TONIGHT...AS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST AND THE WEST COAST RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST INTO THE
GREAT BASIN.

BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA...THOUGH WILL SEE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY.  HAVE
KEPT SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL MTS
MAINLY NORTH OF COTTONWOOD PASS WITH THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST
OROGRAPHIC FLOW AND SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...THOUGH
WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES. WILL SEE BREEZY NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-30 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY AND ACROSS PORTIONS THE SE PLAINS LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME MIXING OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. H7 TEMPS
WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY AND SHOULD YIELD HIGH
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MAINLY 30S AND 40S ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WARMING ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA EXPECTED TO BE AT
OR ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 507 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

AN UPR RIDGE WL BE BUILDING OVR THE GREAT BASIN ON FRIDAY...WITH
NW FLOW ALOFT OVR CO. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE NW FLOW...LATE FRI
AND FRI NIGHT MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE JUST A FEW SHOWERS OVR SOME
OF THE MTN AREAS. OTHERWISE...WARM TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON FRI WITH
HIGHS BEING 10 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE AVERAGE. ON SAT THE UPR RIDGE
MOVES OVR CO AND PUSHES EVEN WARMER AIR OVR THE AREA. THIS WL
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS THAT ARE ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES WARMER THAN
AVERAGE...WITH READINGS IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S OVR THE SERN
PLAINS AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.

SAT NIGHT AN UPR TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM MTN...THRU THE DAKOTA
AND INTO MN.  THIS WL SEND A FRONT INTO ERN CO LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN
MORNING.  DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH CHANCE FOR PCPN WITH THE FRONT AT
THIS TIME IF THE NAM AND GFS ARE CORRECT.  HOWEVER IF YOU BELIEVE
THE ECMWF...THE UPR TROF IS DEEPER AND MOVES ACRS CO SAT NIGHT WITH
PCPN ALONG THE CONTDVD AND MAYBE SPREADING INTO SOME OF THE ERN
MTNS. THE ECMWF IS THEN DRY ACRS THE AREA ON SUN AS THE UPR TROF
QUICKLY MOVES EAST.  HOWEVER THE GFS HAS AFTERNOON SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVR THE HIGH COUNTRY AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. TEMPS ON SUN SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SAT.

ON MON A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACRS THE AREA...BRINGING
CHANCES FOR PCPN..MAINLY  TO THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS.  HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD REBOUND A BIT ON MON.  THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR
TUE AS THE ECMWF HAS A DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU THE FLOW OVR
MT...WITH GENERALLY DRY WX OVR THE FORECAST AREA.  ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE GFS SHOWS THIS SYSTEM A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...BRINGING MSTR
TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVR THE MTNS AND HIGH
VALLEYS...THEN SPREADING EASTWARD OVR THE PLAINS TUE NIGHT. FOR NOW
WL JUST GO WITH SOME ISOLD POPS OVR THE MTN AREAS.  MODEL
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE ON WED AS THE GFS MOVES A FRONT THRU THE SERN
PLAINS EARLY WED BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PCPN TO THE SERN
PLAINS AND ERN MTNS ON WED....WHILE THE ECMWF HAS DRY WESTERLY
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 507 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WILL SEE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10-20KTS POSSIBLE
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...MW



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