Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 171723
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1123 AM MDT SUN MAY 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MDT SUN MAY 17 2015

SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY TODAY. A WEAK TRAILING DISTURBANCE
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WILL
CROSS NRN CO THIS MORNING...LEADING TO A WEAK NORTHERLY SURGE ACROSS
THE ERN PLAINS. BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH FROM THIS SYSTEM. WSR IS
SHOWING SOME WEAK ECHOES OVER NRN CO THIS MORNING...SO WILL SEE SOME
LIGHT SHSN OVER THE CENTRAL MTS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMS...MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH...SO
THIS WILL TEND TO INHIBIT SHOWERS/STORMS. HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS A
BIT...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. LEFT MARGINAL OR ISOLD POPS IN FOR
THE I-25 CORRIDOR FOR LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING...BUT THIS MAY BE ON THE
GENEROUS SIDE. LATER SHIFTS CAN REEVALUATE USING THE LATEST HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE AND OB TRENDS. COULD SEE SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE
MTS...AND CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLD CELLS MOVING OUT OVER THE
PLAINS/VALLEYS. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THAN ON SAT...AS
H7 TEMPS RISE A COUPLE DEGREES. SHOULD SEE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER
70S OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE PLAINS.

TONIGHT...WILL SEE PRECIP DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. AS A STRONG 1030
HIGH BUILDS OVER THE DAKOTAS...THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A BACK-
DOOR FRONT THAT WILL START PUSHING INTO THE PIKES PEAK REGION BY
SUNRISE ON MONDAY. COULD POTENTIALLY SEE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER PARTS OF THE PIKES PEAK REGION BY EARLY MONDAY...BUT NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MDT SUN MAY 17 2015

...HIGH IMPACT WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

ANOTHER POTENT SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL
IMPACT OUR WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING MORE HEAVY RAINS TO THE REGION. IN ADDITION TO
THE RAIN THREAT...HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE S MTNS AND
SAN JUANS. THERE IS ALSO A CONDITIONAL SUPERCELL RISK TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

BY THE BEGINNING OF THIS FCST PD...12Z MONDAY...A WEAK MID LVL RIDGE
AXIS WILL BE OVER THE REGION. AT THE LOW LVLS...A FRONT WILL HAVE
ALREADY PASSED THE REGION AND UPSLOPE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW
CLOUDS WILL BE OVER A GOOD PART OF THE PLAINS. SOME LIGHT PRECIP
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION IN THE MORNING. BY
LATER MONDAY...A 100 KNOT JET WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
CLOSED TROUGH WHICH WILL BE LOCATED OVER C CALIF BY MIDDAY MONDAY.
THIS JET WILL INCREASE THE PRECIP OVER THE MTNS...WITH THE PRECIP
ON THE PLAINS GRADUALLY EXPANDING EASTWARD.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE TIME PERIOD FOR THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER FOR
THE REGION. ATTM...IT IS LIKELY THAT RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL
DEVELOP MONDAY EVENING OVER THE PLAINS WITH HIGHEST ELEVATION SNOWS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THIS HEAVY RAIN/SNOW WILL BE THE RESULT OF
INTENSE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND QG FORCING MOVING OVER THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ALL MODELS SHOW IMPRESSIVE SSE 700 MB
FLOW...WITH SPEEDS RANGING BETWEEN 35 TO 55 KNOTS...DEPENDING ON
WHICH MODEL YOU WANT TO BELIEVE. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE PLAINS. WITH THE GROUND ALREADY
SATURATED...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A THREAT. IN THE
MOUNTAINS...HEAVY SNOW WILL FALL...ESPECIALLY FOR ELEVATIONS
ROUGHLY AROUND 10000 FEET.

FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ALONG WITH WINTER STORM HIGHLIGHTS FOR HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA VALID FOR THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
FOLKS IN AND AROUND ALL OF THE BURN SCARS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THOSE
LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD ALSO BE WEATHER-AWARE.

THERE IS ALSO A CONDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR THE PLAINS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SHEAR WILL BE VERY STRONG WITH IMPRESSIVELY
CURVED HODOGRAPHS FOR THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST TO BE MINIMAL DUE TO THE COOLER AIR AT LOW LEVELS.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A DRY PUNCH COMING IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. IF WE CAN GET ENOUGH INSOLATION TO ALLOW FOR SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION...THEN A SUPERCELL/TORNADO RISK WILL OCCUR DURING
THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD. THE BEST LOCATION OF THIS
OCCURRING WOULD BE ALONG THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER REGION.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...

SUBTROPICAL JET WILL BE JUST TO OUR SOUTH. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE DURING THIS PERIOD AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION DURING THIS TWO DAY PERIOD. MOISTURE WILL BE RELATIVELY
HIGH SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. I CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME MARGINALLY SVR STORMS AS SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL
BE IN PLACE.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...

ANOTHER POTENTIALLY POTENT SUBTROPICAL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ONCE
AGAIN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD ALSO BRING MORE
RAIN AND VERY HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH A SVR
WX THREAT. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT SUN MAY 17 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND
KPUB TAF SITES INTO THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MVFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR THE
KCOS TAF SITE FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$


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