Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 201737
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1237 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2016

Updated Aviation Discussion for 18Z TAF`s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Sat Aug 20 2016

Warm sector souping up is ongoing, as lower 70s surface TD`s punch
into heart of FA from southwest, and WAA convection has developed
along its lead edge.

Later today, will see surface cold front approach from the west.
Front will encounter plentiful moisture in the profile, with
surface based TDs in the lower 70s as aforementioned. Extent of
instability will depend upon how much cloud break up/daytime
heating can occur, but front`s timing of passage thru pm hours is
optimal. All models continue to show numerous showers/storms
breaking out along/ahead of the boundary from the pm hours into
the early evening hours. Marginal risk of svr associated with
front for mainly downburst/wind potential in bow segments, with
ltg/heavy rain the other primary hazards.

The front makes its passage by late evening, and convection winds
down from west to east. Should ultimately see a nice clear out,
with height falls and surface high pressure producing a
cooler/drier and very pleasant end to the weekend and start to the
work week.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Sat Aug 20 2016

Low to medium confidence in the extended.

Models have moved up the timing a great deal from just a few days
back. However they are in agreement with at least slight chances
moving into the Ozark foothills by Tuesday afternoon. Albeit nothing
impressive. We do start to see weak surface based instability with
LI`s going to negative 3 Tuesday afternoon and MU CAPEs under 1k
j/kg/2. There is slight instability aloft with K index values near
30c and Showalters slightly negative. Again with PWATs near 2" heavy
rain will be the main threat. Then after the loss of heating expect
convection to cease. Expect similar on Wednesday and Wednesday
night. However Thursday into Friday a cold front will bearing down on
the region. However the long wave trough is now holding off or a
little slower with its approach. Thus not sure how much support the
surface front will have available aloft to push through the region.
But for now it appears at least to push into TN. Considering the
weak front severe weather is not anticipated at this time. In
contrast with high dew points and PWATs ranging from 1.5" to 2"
heavy rainfall will be the main threat. The instability would not
support the widespread heavy rain we have recently encountered.
Temperatures will be near normal through the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2016

Scattered SHRA/TSRA will increase in coverage this afternoon into
the evening hrs. Looks like best coverage may end up over western
KY by this evening and then be completely out of the area by
around 06Z or shortly thereafter. Southwest winds this afternoon
will be gusty at times especially up near the KEVV/KOWB terminals.
The front will make passage this evening into the early overnight
hrs, switching winds around to the WNW. MVFR cigs will be possible
from time to time associated with SHRA/TSRA and plenty of low
level moisture ahead of the front. Some areas may briefly go IFR
on vsbys under the stronger storms. VFR conditions will prevail
overnight with clearing at all sites by morning. Some low
potential at fog developing, particularly at KCGI, during the
early morning hrs, but kept mention out for now.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SP
AVIATION...SP



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