Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 261146
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
546 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 546 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF ILLINOIS
DOWN INTO THE ST LOUIS METRO AREA APPEARS TO BE THE RESULT OF THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A DEPARTING WESTERLY JET ALOFT. ALL 00Z
GUIDANCE AND THE MOST RECENT HRRR...INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT
WEAKENING THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE SNOW WILL DRY TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE MS RIVER THROUGH MIDDAY AND THEN REALLY DRY UP AS IT
SPREADS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.

THE BEST CHANCE AT MEASURABLE SNOWFALL WILL BE ALONG AND NORTHWEST
OF A DONIPHAN MISSOURI TO MT VERNON ILLINOIS LINE THIS MORNING. UP
TO A HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT MOST PLACES ARE LIKELY TO
ONLY SEE A LIGHT DUSTING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR SIGNS OF
A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL THIS MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON...SOME PATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW MAY RESULT IN A
DUSTING IN A FEW LOCATIONS MAINLY OVER WEST KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST
INDIANA. FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WELL INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...AS ARCTIC AIR SURGES BACK ACROSS THE REGION.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
THROUGH MIDDAY...AND THEN NORTH WINDS WILL REALLY PICK UP AND
BECOME GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF 00Z. WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AND FAIRLY STRONG COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE
DAY...MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WITH
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. USED
SOME LAMP DATA TO TRY TO REFLECT POSSIBLE HOURLY TEMPERATURE
TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THERE MAY HAVE BEEN JUST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
LOWS...WITH A RANGE OF 4 NEAR MT VERNON ILLINOIS TO 14 NEAR FT
CAMPBELL KENTUCKY. WIND CHILLS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM ZERO TO
10 BELOW FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE THIS A MENTION IN THE HWO.

THE ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SO A MODEST NORTHEAST WIND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MAY HAVE NUDGED TEMPERATURE UP
JUST A DEGREE OR SO FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR HIGHS FRIDAY
AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILLS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA MAY DROPPED JUST A BELOW ZERO FOR A FEW HOURS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND AREA SATURDAY MORNING. WILL ALSO MENTION THIS IN THE
HWO.

THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL QUICKLY BUILD EASTWARD SATURDAY...AS THE
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES RATHER FAST AND ZONAL. WARM ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY IN THIS SCENARIO...AND THE MODELS TEND TO
BE A LITTLE SLOW WITH THE ONSET. INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW TO THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI SATURDAY
AFTERNOON JUST TO HINT AT THAT POSSIBILITY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BULK OF IT OCCURRING TO OUR
WEST AND NORTH. LOW LEVELS APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY DRY DURING THE
FIRST PART OF THE EVENING BUT MOISTEN UP NICELY AFTER 06Z SUNDAY.
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN IL,
SOUTHWEST IN AND SEMO. ALTHOUGH WAA WILL BE ONGOING...WE WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO DEAL WITH FREEZING PRECIPITATION AT THE ONSET SINCE
WE WILL BE STARTING OUT RATHER COLD. WHILE WE MAY SEE A FEW
SNOWFLAKES EARLY IN THE EVENING, A WARM LAYER ALOFT WOULD MEAN
MORE OF A CHANCE FOR SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN LATER ON. HOWEVER,
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FAIRLY QUICK WARM UP DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WHICH SHOULD MEAN A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN BY SOMETIME SUNDAY
MORNING.

NEXT PROBLEM WILL BE TIMING AN INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE 12Z/00Z ECMWF IS FASTER IN BRINGING IT THROUGH WHILE
THE 00Z GFS IS A BIT SLOWER. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS ON WHEN THE
HIGHEST POPS SHOULD BE ADVERTISED...I.E. SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.
COLD AIR POURS BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS FRONT. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE THE COLD AIR INFILTRATES BUT WILL
SHOW A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY JUST IN CASE.

AS WAS SEEN YESTERDAY...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH WE SHOULD HAVE A BRIEF
BREAK ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN. BUT THAT BREAK
IS DEFINITELY BRIEF AS WE COULD SEE PRECIPITATION SNEAK BACK INTO
THE REGION AS EARLY AS 00Z TUESDAY. OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM DEVELOPS
IN THE ROCKIES AND THEN MOVES INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY IN
THE WEEK. OF COURSE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE LOCATION OF THE SFC
LOW BUT MODELS AGREE ON AGGRESSIVELY BRINGING PRECIPITATION BACK
INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. SOUNDINGS, THICKNESS VALUES AND RAW
MODEL SFC TEMPS INDICATE THAT WE SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL
LIQUID AS THIS PRECIPITATION RETURNS. THERE MIGHT BE A BRIEF PERIOD
WHERE SOME FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP IS POSSIBLE AT THE
ONSET...EARLY IN THE EVENING ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN OUR FAR NORTH.

AS THE SFC LOW MOVES TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...WE COULD BE DEALING WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN AND EVEN SOME
THUNDER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION BUT WHEN EXACTLY AND WHERE
REMAINS TO BE SEEN AS MODELS OBTAIN A BETTER HANDLE ON THE LOW
PLACEMENT. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT PATH OF THE SFC LOW...WINDS COULD
BECOME SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND THAT WOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REALLY RAMP UP. WE WILL KEEP THINGS CONSERVATIVE FOR
NOW BUT SEEING HOW THE NEW EURO HAS COME IN LINE WITH THE GFS...WILL
RAISE TEMPS. MODELS AGREE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT SOMETIME
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 546 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUPPORT
PUSHING BACK THE ARRIVAL OF MVFR CEILINGS AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC SURGE TODAY. A NICE AREA OF MVFR SNOW
OVER KSTL AND POINTS NORTH IS EXPECTED TO DRY UP AS IT ATTEMPTS TO
SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST INTO OUR REGION. THREW IN A MENTION OF VFR
SNOW AT ALL SITES FOR A FEW HOURS WITH THE INTIAL ARRIVAL OF THE
MVFR CEILINGS. GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE UNDER-ESTIMATING THE SNOW
AT THIS TIME...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR MORE
SIGNIFICANT SNOWS AT ALL SITES TODAY. THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE THAT
THE MVFR CEILINGS MAY SCATTER OUT AT KEVV AND KOWB PRIOR TO 12Z
FRIDAY.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...DRS



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