Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 172355
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
655 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 655 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Updated aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 137 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

The short term will begin with the region buried within a
deep/broad nw flow regime aloft. This has created quite an active
pattern with multiple MCS type systems passing se through the
Plains over the past 24 hours. Most of the strongest activity has
remained just west of our se MO counties tho...and this looks to
remain the case over the next day or so. Will keep small pops in
west of the MS river in case more development overnight or Thu
clips them again. After Thu, models are in good agreement that
mid lvl ridging will take place, resulting in warming temps and
little if any chc for rainfall. Should be quite nice with low
humidity levels leading into the upcoming weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 137 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Medium confidence in the extended.

The major differences with the Sunday/Monday fronts is with the qpf
amounts. The 12z Wed GFS shows a moisture starved frontal system.
Although it does crank out some qpf so not a dry front anyway. In
contrast the 00z Wed ECMWF runs shows more moisture with this system
and has been for numerous days now. Odile continues to push
northeast toward TX and OK panhandle...penetrating the upper high
aided by a pacific trough breaking the ridge down from the west. If
this scenario comes to fruition the Sunday/Monday cold fronts could
tap into this tropical moisture source which would provide ample
moisture for widespread showers and storms. The GEM and the SREF
support the additional moisture scenario of the ECMWF. However Most
models with the exception of ECMWF have all the precip out of the fa
by 6z Mon. The ECMWF was slower but the new 12z Wed just came in and
it to is faster. So main changes were to slow the arrival of precip
in fa until 6z Sunday and move it out 6z Monday. Otherwise just
minor tweaks to qpf.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 655 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR ceilings will prevail at the majority of forecast terminals over
the next 24 hours. At KCGI however, more abundant low level moisture
will result in MVFR ceilings much of tonight into Thursday morning.
The development of fog after midnight should reduce visibilities to
MVFR or even IFR at times. However, the fog is not expected to be as
dense as last night given the extent of sky cover. High pressure
over the Great Lakes will result in east to northeast winds less
than 10 knots through the period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...RJP




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