Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 101126

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
526 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

Issued at 526 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

Updated for 12Z aviation forecast discussion.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 305 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

A low pressure system has been developing over the central Plains
early this morning, as high pressure remains anchored along the
east coast. This has caused winds to increase and become rather
gusty overnight. This low will move northeast toward the Great
Lakes today. This will mean the gradient will remain rather tight
and wind gusts could reach 35 to 45 mph today. Winds right off the
deck are impressible and if we can mix any of those winds down,
we will see higher gusts. Therefore, the wind advisory will remain
in effect.

A cold front will slide east toward the area today as the
aforementioned low tracks northeast. This gives us good chance to
see some shower activity throughout the day. As the front slides
southeast, precipitation will end across most of the area by

Models bring the front back north Wednesday and Wednesday
night, increasing shower chances once again. Instability
parameters suggest thunder on Wednesday, so kept slight chances
for the entire area. Another frontal boundary to our north will
start to sag southward toward the area on Wednesday night and
Thursday, providing a continued chances of showers.

We will stay very warm for the next few days, with highs in the
50s to the low to mid 60s through Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 255 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

The unsettled weather pattern will continue. However, the signal is
growing that some freezing rain is in the offing for some areas late
Thursday night through Friday evening.

A cold front will drop south into the area on Thursday and be either
just south of the area or lingering in the southern Pennyrile region
by 00Z Friday. This front will continue sagging south into the
evening hours, as a strong high pressure system drops south into the
northern Plains.

By 12z Friday, the 32F line will have drifted south into northern parts
of our region, namely across parts of southeast MO, southern IL
and southwest IN. Therefore, the threat for freezing rain will
begin late Thursday evening into Friday morning. Of course, models
are not in perfect agreement on where exactly the sub freezing
air will set up, so adjustments will continue to occur. Warmer air
will be situated south, so all rain is expected across west KY.
Given that the higher QPF will be south across west KY, any
freezing rain amounts north would be light, prior to 12Z Friday.

During the day on Friday, the freezing line does not seem to slide
south at all, but rather, it either stays put or retreats north a
bit, especially later on. We should see the freezing line north of
our CWA no later than 06Z Saturday. Only a small sliver of
counties should be dealing with any freezing rain as we head into
Friday evening (far northwestern counties).

However, given the QPF amounts up in locations were temps will be
32F or less, we could have some ice accumulations on
Friday/Friday evening. Right now, the greatest potential for ice
accumulations will be along and north of a line from Grandin MO to
Jackson MO to Marion to Carmi IL to Fort Branch and Winslow IN.

An upper level closed low will dive south across California into
northern Old Mexico and this will cause upper heights to rise as
southwesterly flow aloft continues. This will result in a warming
conditions and an end to the freezing rain prospects for the most
part on Saturday. We will have continued chances for rain the
remainder of the weekend and into early next week as moisture is
abundant in the flow aloft and eventually, the aforementioned closed
low makes its way east northeast back into the United States.

Given the variability in timing of the different waves of
precipitation in the long term, concur with previous shift with the
unlikelihood flash flooding. Will continue to monitor.


Issued at 526 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

The big aviation concerns today are winds and cigs. South winds
will continue sustained at around 20 mph and gusts could reach 35
to 45 mph. Cigs have come down to MVFR and will remain that way
for most of the day. Scattered showers are likely to develop but
they should be light. Low level moisture should scour out this
evening and end any rain chances. Winds should also die down by
around 00Z Wednesday, as they eventually shift to westerly and
then light and variable later tonight.


IL...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ076-086-087-100-

IN...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KYZ001>022.


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