000
FXUS63 KPAH 130756
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
256 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY
NORTH AND EAST OF THE PAH FA. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE MODELS
STILL PAINT A FEW HUNDREDTHS QPF OVER MAINLY OUR ERN 1/3 OF
COUNTIES...AND EVEN NIGHT-TIME CAPES ALONG OUR ERN CWA BORDER ARE
RUNNING AROUND 2K J/KG...WE`LL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION
THRU THE EARLY A.M. HOURS.

FROPA IS COMPLETE BY MIDDAY AND COOLER/DRIER AIR OVERTAKES THE
COLUMN. THIS COULD RESULT IN LOWER THAN FORECAST TD`S THIS PM.
TEMPS SHOULD BE BACK IN THE 80S/60S THRU THE WEEKEND.

NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN LOOKS TO HOLD OFF TIL SUNDAY. NEW MODELS KEEP
EVEN .01" QPF NORTH OF THE BORDER THRU THEN...SO MADE THAT
FORECAST MODIFICATION AND OTHERWISE/LITTLE CHANGE NOTED IN THE
SHORT RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY THE MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO FLATTEN OUT THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND BRING IN SOME PRECIP. THE GFS IS BACKING OFF A
BIT AS IS THE EXTENDED INIT HAS BACKED OFF POPS A BIT FROM LAST RUN
NEARLY 10% LESS IN GENERAL. THUS WILL LEAN THAT DIRECTION. HOWEVER A
FEW PERCENT INCREASE OVER PREVIOUS POPS SUNDAY NIGHT. SO MAYBE ITS
MORE OF A TIMING ISSUE THAN POPS. WILL KEEP IT BUT REMAIN IN THE CHC
CAT FOR NOW. WILL KEEP CHANCES GOING INTO TUESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE
WILL BE MONDAY WITH THE ADDITION OF SURFACE SUPPORT AS COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE HEARTLAND. MONDAY NIGHT THE ECMWF AND
GFS DIFFER WITH THE ECMWF PLACING LIGHT PRECIP BACK OVER THE AREA IN
THE COLD FRONTS WAKE. DONT REALLY LIKE NON DIURNAL IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THE FORECAST SOUNDING DO NOT SUPPORT RAIN
TUESDAY AND AFTER AND THROUGH COLLABORATION HAVE REMOVED FROM THAT
POINT ON.

TWEAKED WINDS UP AHEAD AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FROM WHAT THE
EXTENDED INIT PRODUCED. ALSO COOLED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW INIT
AFTER THE COLD FROPA WHICH FIT IN WELL WITH NEIGHBORS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

BREEZY SWLYS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW EARLY TODAY AS FROPA OCCURS.
IT`S POSSIBLE THAT SOME MVFR CIGS MAY SNEAK INTO THE KEVV/KOWB TAF
SITES...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD STAY MAINLY NORTH/EAST OF TERMINALS
(ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT CHANCE EXISTS). GUSTINESS COULD CONTINUE THRU
THE PM HOURS BUT WINDS WILL WANE WITH SUNSET AS SKIES CLEAR.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$