Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 212118

National Weather Service Paducah KY
318 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 318 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2015

We are in for one cold night tonight, with the coldest temps so
far this season on the way. Wind chills were already in the 20s
in the nrn half of the PAH forecast area this afternoon. Behind a
cold front, nwrly sustained winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts 25 to 40
mph are expected to diminish quite rapidly from west to east after
dark. Latest data indicates that under clearing skies and lighter
wind conditions, lows will range from the middle teens to about 20
degrees across srn IL and the lower half of the 20s elsewhere.
Wind chill readings should be mostly in the teens by sunrise.

Fast cyclonic flow aloft will prevail through the weekend with a
lobe of sfc high pressure moving through the region. Into early
next week, though there will be a ridge of high pressure at the
sfc in the Deep South and quasi-zonal flow aloft, low level return
flow of any consequence is not shown by the models to start up
until the very end of the short term, hence the forecast is mostly
clear and bone dry, with an eventual rebound to near seasonable

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 318 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2015

A significant pattern change will occur during the long term period.
A strong 500 mb shortwave will dig southeast across the mid and
upper Mississippi Valley on Friday night/Saturday. A second weaker
shortwave may follow a similar path Sunday. In the wake of these
shortwaves, a quasi-zonal flow pattern is expected next week. This
sequence of events is a sharp departure from the high amplitude
western trough/eastern ridge pattern that has been common this month.

As far as the daily details, a strong cold front will sweep
southeast across our region early Saturday. Forcing associated with
the digging 500 mb shortwave may generate scattered showers late
Friday night and Saturday morning. In the wake of the front, rather
strong northwest winds will usher in the coldest air so far this
season. Both the gfs and ecmwf indicate 850 mb temps will hover from
minus 5 to minus 9 Saturday night through Sunday. This will
translate to daytime highs struggling to reach 40 on Sunday. Under a
1030 mb surface high, overnight lows on both Saturday and Sunday
nights will be in the 20s.

Monday through Tuesday, a zonal flow pattern is expected across much
of the country. This will result in a continuation of mainly dry
conditions with slowly moderating temperatures. Highs will
recover to the lower 50s by Tuesday, with lows in the 30s.


Issued at 318 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2015

Colder drier air will continue to invade the region late today.
As a result, sustained nwrly winds 15 to 25 kts gusting 25 to 35
kts will be common before diminishing in the evening and
overnight. MVFR cigs will generally improve to VFR throughout the
remainder of the afternoon. Some MVFR "wraparound" cigs are
possible into the overnight hours mainly east of the Wabash River
and the KY Lakes region.


.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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