Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 281125

625 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Issued at 625 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Updated aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Hot and humid weather will persist into Friday. However, conditions
should not be quite as oppressive as the last several days. Today,
temperatures will be just a few degrees lower than yesterday with
heat index readings averaging in the upper 90s to perhaps around
100 in a few spots. Heat index readings will be several degrees
lower on Friday as drier air mixes down through the column. Higher
humidity will return Saturday, but temperatures will be lower
given the added cloud cover and chance for precipitation. As a
result, it looks like we can put the long standing Heat Advisory
to rest for the time being.

As for the overall pattern, upper level ridging over the Southeast
will persist through the near term--albeit with a slight eastward
drift. At the surface, a weak cold front that dropped into the
forecast area yesterday will shift back to the north by Friday.
The presence of this boundary may touch off isolated to scattered
thunderstorms as the atmosphere destabilizes this afternoon. Mainly
dry conditions will take hold late tonight and Friday, though a
rogue storm cannot be ruled  out near Interstate 64 and the Ozark
foothills Friday afternoon.

An upper level trough over the Central Plains will shift east into
the Mississippi Valley by Saturday. Its approach will heighten the
influx of Gulf moisture on increasing southerly flow. As a result,
the potential for showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase
from the west Friday night into Saturday. While a few strong storms
cannot be ruled out, the main concern during this time will be
locally heavy rain with deep unidirectional southwest flow and
precipitable water values in the vicinity of 2 inches.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 126 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

The models are in basic agreement that the long term portion of
the forecast starts out looking like a wet/active pattern. Gulf
moisture will return ahead of a developing trof in the Plains, and
overrun the TN valley as High pressure is positioned to the east
and the return flow sets up in earnest.

Heights fall as the Plains trof approaches, and Pops spike Sat
night-Sunday on its approach. It lays a boundary out to our north,
and while not focused overhead, daily Pops do continue through the
early part of the week.

As the boundary lays out and the energy translates east, broader
height rises will eventually begin to overtake basic parcel motion
over the region, and Pops wane to just slgt chance mentions by the
end of the long term period/into the mid week.

Due to more clouds/active pcpn around, temps mute somewhat into
the 80s/around 90 for highs, and low 70s/around 70 for lows with
mugginess continuing given dew points holding firm in the active
return flow.


Issued at 625 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

VFR conditions will prevail during much of the forecast period at
all terminals. Widely scattered thunderstorms may develop in the
heat of the afternoon, but anticipated coverage is too little to
mention explicitly with this package. Easterly winds through the
period will remain light.




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