Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 232313
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
613 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 613 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Aviation update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 121 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Isolated cells are beginning to pop on periphery of capped
environ, just to our south. Pool of H7 temps AOA 12C over Ecntl
MO has been inhibiting updraft growth thus far. We`ll see how it
plays out rest of PM hours...may have to carry isolated or widely
scattered mentionable Pop into early evening if scope gets
activated.

Otherwise, mean synoptic forecast pattern remains the same. Broad
high pressure aloft extends across the Commonwealth thru the
remainder of the weekend, with surface ridging underneath,
effectively quashing all but isolated cells growth again tmrw and
also providing another day of extreme heat/humidity.

The High aloft retrogrades to the southwest U.S. by Monday,
however, and this allows some northern stream energy from a
cyclone making Great Lakes passage to spill down the Ohio valley
and into/across the PAH FA. That should be enough to amplify Pops,
esp during the heat of the day, with the mid level capping
loosened and the added benefit of this little bit of energy aloft
vs overall subsidence pattern of preceding days. As a result, more
clouds/convection should impede the extreme levels of
heat/humidity of the weekend being attained in widespread fashion,
although still smothering triple digits are a possibility where
convection does not occur.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

The subtropical 500 mb ridge over much of the southern and central
states will very gradually weaken and erode southward during the
long-term period. As the ridge weakens, a weak cold front will move
south and then become quasi-stationary over our region. The result
will be a rather wet pattern. Clouds and precip will hold daytime
high temps down a bit, however increased dew point pooling near the
front will keep apparent temperatures rather uncomfortable.

As far as the daily specifics, on Tuesday and Wednesday the cold
front is likely to stall across our region. Although upper-level
support will be weak at best, convection should easily fire in this
tropical air mass. Slow-moving storms could result in locally heavy
rainfall, but weak shear values will limit organization and
intensity.

On Thursday and Friday, there is fairly good model agreement that a
low pressure system will form over the Upper Mississippi Valley and
move east to the Great Lakes region. This low will cause the front
to move back northeast across our region as a warm front Thursday. A
trailing cold front will then approach from the northwest on Friday.
On Saturday, the trailing cold front will move at least as far
southeast as the Lower Ohio Valley. This will keep storms in the
forecast into the weekend.

Little change in air mass is expected during the period. Overnight
lows should be consistently in the lower to mid 70s. Daytime highs
will be dependent on convective timing and coverage, much as they
were this past week. Highs should generally be in the upper 80s
given the convectively active pattern. Apparent temps will still
peak near 100 in southern counties due partly to high dew points.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 613 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Could be some fog again overnight. Calm winds, and mainly clear
overnight. Some CU and high clouds Sunday with light south winds.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.

IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for KYZ001>009.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for KYZ010>022.

&&

$$



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