Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 011728
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1228 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NW FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A WEAK FRONT
WILL ESSENTIALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM CNTRL INTO SEMO
MAY TRIGGER ISOLD CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA. POPS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT SAVE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT
OVER A SMALL PART OF THE KEVV TRI-STATE AREA. WILL ALSO HAVE TO
MONITOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT NE 1/3 OF THE AREA WHEN A WEAK
FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLD
CONVECTION THEN. TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND MOS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO START OFF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A LARGE
CLOSED LOW SYSTEM OVER EASTERN CANADA AND AN UPPER HIGH OVER
SOUTHERN ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO. OUR AREA WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ENERGY
SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE AND IMPACTING US BY MID WEEK. THE SIGNAL HAS
BECOME A BIT STRONGER THAT THIS IS A BETTER POSSIBILITY AND MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS FAR AS TIMING IS CONCERNED...BUT
A LOT STILL HAS TO BE RESOLVED BEFORE WE CAN REALLY RAISE POPS INTO
THE LIKELY CATEGORY.

A DECENT LOOKING SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME FINER TUNING WILL EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED TO THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS FEATURE BUT WHEN IT ACTUALLY DOES
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...MODELS ARE HINTING AT PRETTY HEFTY QPF
AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...THE NEW 00Z ECWMF HAS KIND OF FALLEN OFF THE
BANDWAGON WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. IT WILL TAKE
A WHILE FOR MODELS TO REALLY GRASP HOW THIS WILL ALL EVOLVE BUT IT
DOES LOOK LIKE THERE COULD BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
SOMETIME IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.
GFS ENESEMBLES ARE PRETTY MESSY AND DO NOT OFFER MUCH HELP WITH THIS
SITUATION EITHER.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY DEPART SOMETIME WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT
AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY IN THE WAKE OF THAT SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...WE WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AT THE END OF THE
WEEK SO WILL LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...IT LOOKS PRETTY WARM ON TUESDAY BUT WE
SHOULD COOL DOWN BACK INTO THE 80S FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHT TAF PERIOD. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR/IFR FOG AT KCGI AND
KPAH EARLY TMRW MORNING. ISOLATED VCTS COULD GET CLOSE TO KCGI
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BUT CHANCE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT
THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY AND SWITCH
AROUND TO THE SOUTH TMRW MORNING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SP
AVIATION...SP



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