Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 280736
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
236 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND
TENNESSE RIVER VALLEYS TODAY...PROVIDING ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY OF
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AND HUMIDITY. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER PIECE
OF VORT ENERGY WILL PINWHEEL DOWN THE MEAN H5 TROF LATER TONITE
INTO TMRW. AS IT DOES SO...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND
AN AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS BREAKS OUT ACROSS THE MID MS/LOWER OH
RIVER VALLEYS...ESP MON-TUE...AS SEVERAL ADDITONAL SPOKES OF H5
ENERGY ROUND THE BASE OF THE MEAN LONG WAVE TROF. SCATTERED
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RANGE FROM MID CHANCE TO LOW LIKELYS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. TEMPS/HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE UPWARDS AS
WELL...BUT STILL RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO NORMS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, WHICH BRINGS THE INDEPENDENCE DAY
(JULY 4TH) INTO THE PICTURE, WILL BE A HEADACHE FOR FORECASTERS AND
TRAVELERS ALIKE.

THE CANADIAN/GFS/SREF GUIDANCE APPEAR TO INITIALIZE WELL WITH THE
WESTERN RIDGE AND ATTENDANT SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND IT VERSUS
HEIGHTS AND WINDS IN THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WITH THE 00Z MODEL
RUNS. LEANED CLOSER TO THIS GUIDANCE FOR POPS/WEATHER AND
TEMPERATURE.

THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A
HIGHER POP/WEATHER SCENARIO FOR THE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY TIME PERIOD. IT IS AT THIS TIME THAT THE CANADIAN
GUIDANCE, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT, THE DETERMINISTIC GFS GUIDANCE
PLACE THE SOUTHERN 1/2-2/3RDS OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA IS A
SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH A DISTINCT WARM FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT
POISED ALONG SOUTHERN MO, NORTHERN ARKANSAS, EXTREME SOUTHWEST KY,
AND WESTERN TN AREA. THIS WOULD PLACE THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA IN
AN ZONE OF MCS DEVELOPMENT AND POSSIBLY MCV INITIATION IN THE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/THURSDAY MORNING TIME FRAME...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS OVER SOUTHEAST MO, EXTREME SOUTHERN IL, AND ACROSS WEST KY. AS
EMPHASIZED IN AN EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION PRESENTED BY THE
FRIDAY DAYSHIFT, THE ENSEMBLES SUPPORTED THIS ENHANCEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH ALL THAT IN MIND, DECIDED
TO ENHANCE AND KEEP LOW LIKELY POPS IN PLACE FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
TIME PERIOD AND AREA.

THE NAEFS HAVE ALSO BEEN HITTING ON FRIDAY FOR ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MO AND WEST KENTUCKY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THE 00Z SUNDAY
CANADIAN MODEL GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE MORE DIFFUSE, BUT THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS MORE ACTIVE WITH PERIODIC SHORTWAVES AND NEARBY
PLUMES OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FROM AN INCREASINGLY OPEN GULF OF MEXICO
WIND/PRESSURE FIELD. WITH THIS IN MIND, KEPT POPS ELEVATED FOR
FRIDAY AS WELL.

FOR SATURDAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY), KEPT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE AS MINOR
IMPULSES ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND MOISTURE INFLUX SUPPORT
CONTINUED CHANCE, WITH SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE POPS ARE PRESENTED WITH A NORTH TO SOUTH
GRADIENT, WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE ARKANSAS AND TENNESSEE
BORDERS.

REGARDLESS OF HOW THE FORECAST IS SLICED, THIS IS GOING TO BE A
MESSY WEEK WITH RESPECT TO POPS AND WEATHER, AS THE WFO PAH FORECAST
AREA LIES WITHIN THE ZONE OF FASTER WINDS ALOFT AND ACCESS TO
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES, DEWPOINTS, WINDS, ETC...UTILIZED SOME
INFLUENCE OF THE CANADIAN GUIDANCE TO THE EXTENDED BLENDED MODEL
INITIALIZATION. IT MAY LEAD TO A SLIGHT UPWARD OR POSITIVE BIAS, BUT
IT IS MUCH CLOSER THAN THE COOLER BIASED BLENDED GUIDANCE, AT LEAST
FROM A FORECAST VERIFICATION PERSPECTIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS (MAYBE SOME LOW VFR SCATTERED DIURNAL
BASES) TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RULES ACROSS THE MID MS/TN
VALLEYS. SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS COULD INCREASE TONIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF INCOMING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES TMRW.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$


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