Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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342
FXUS63 KPAH 270648
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
148 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 134 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

New SWODY1 outlooks moderate risk for much of FA this pm/evening,
with all svr wx hazards possible. AM storms to our west are
modeled to affect western ptns FA later this morning, and may lay
out a boundary and also blow off debris clouds that could stall
development after daybreak. However, differential heating should
mix the atmos up enough to allow super charge to take place, with
high cape environ and steep mid level lapse rates revealed by
model soundings. At some point during the pm hours, cap should
break and convection become numerous to widespread, with
associated moderate risk of svr extending from late pm into/thru
the evening hours. Svr chances begin to diminish overnight as
large scale instability is lost the farther east storms push away
from source boundary/energy.

Primary cold front does not make actual passage until Sunday
evening, so until then, we`ll be continuing pops along/ahead of
the boundary, and this includes a continued slight risk of severe
again for mainly Sunday afternoon/early evening.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 134 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

The extended period continues to be troublesome with models flip
flopping the best chances for rain. Still dealing with another
frontal boundary passage on Tuesday/Tuesday night. The GFS has
been the most consistent with the timing of this feature but not
as much on QPF. Still, believe that precip chances need to be
included for that time frame given the consistency of this signal
and the consistency of the GFS ensemble precip means. At this time
our confidence does not warrant anything more than slight
chances.

The ECMWF was never that excited about Tuesday`s rain prospects and
still isn`t. Instead, the 12Z ECMWF brings a front down into the
area on Wednesday through Thursday. That is the exact same time that
the GFS brings in a reinforcing sfc high pressure system that dries
us out. However, the 00Z ECMWF is back to looking like the GFS with
the drier weather on Wednesday with the incoming sfc high. The early
part of the extended forecast is going to be hinged on exactly what
this large upper level low over the upper Great Lakes region/eastern
Canada does and the timing and strength of impulses rotating around
it. For now, leaning toward the more consistent GFS for guidance.

Given the above discussion, POPs will be low Tuesday through
Thursday given uncertainities in the model signals. There has been a
stronger signal for more wet weather as we head into the latter half
of the week. However, the upper level pattern is not being
consistently resovled by the models very well at all. Yesterdays
runs indicated more of a southwesterly flow pattern setting up and
now the upper flow stays more west northwesterly through Friday. We
will continue to have POPs for late week, but work will need to be
done on fine tuning these chances as models grasp a better handle on
things.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 134 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

VFR ceilings will persist across much of the area through the
forecast period. A brief period of MVFR ceilings is possible towards
daybreak through mid morning. Patchy MVFR fog development is also
possible--particularly over southeast Missouri which may impact
KCGI. Isolated storms cannot be completely ruled out through noon
Saturday over far southern portions of southeast Missouri and
western Kentucky, but most of this should remain south of the
forecast terminals. We believe the greatest risk for storms, some
of which may be strong to severe, should hold off until late
Saturday afternoon or more likely Saturday evening. Southerly
winds AOB 10 knots will prevail.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$



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