Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 311829
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
129 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

A PERSISTENT/LINGERING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE
MID MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST DURATION. ITS EFFECTS ARE SEEN TODAY ON RADAR...WITH
LIGHT OVERRUNNING SHOWERS RESULTING AS PROFILERS SHOW W-SWLYS AOA
4K FT AGL TOPPING THE LIGHT NLYS BELOW THAT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES THRU TONIGHT. THE
MODELS DO ADVECT A SLUG OF MOISTURE ACROSS MAINLY WKY LATER
TONIGHT-TMRW MORNING...AS THE LOW NEARS. WE`LL CRANK UP POPS IN
THAT TIME FRAME...COLLABORATING THE TRANSITION.

MONDAY PM/EVENING...THAT TREND SHIFTS SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD...AS
THE LOW CENTER ITSELF LIKEWISE TRACKS SELY INTO THE TN VALLEY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING IF NOT DISAPPEARING POPS HEADING
INTO THE MONDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD.

AS THE LOW DRIFTS EVER SO GRADUALLY FURTHER AWAY WITH
TIME...DIURNAL HEATING ON TUESDAY MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS
AFFECTING OUR VERY EXTREME SOUTHERN AND/OR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
GIVEN THE SLOW PERSISTENCE OF THE LOW THUS FAR...WE`LL GO AHEAD
AND CARRY A SLGT CHANCE THERE ON TUESDAY.

COOLISH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S LARGELY (SOME 60S) AND LOWS IN THE
50S WILL BE THE RULE THRU MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE CLOUDY/WET/COOL LOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN EXTENDED.

A MID LEVEL CUT OFF LOW MEANDERS JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AT
THE START OF THE EXTENDED. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL FINALLY FORCE THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW SOUTHEASTWARD OUT
OF THE AREA. BY THE WEEKEND...A WEAK PERTURBATION WILL TOP THE
RIDGE AND DIVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING YET MORE CHANCES OF RAIN
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO BE REFLECTED BY A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OR POSSIBLY OUTFLOW FROM STORMS ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE NORTH. THIS RIDGE TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY
EASTWARD INTO THE HEARTLAND BRINGING DRY AND MUCH WARMER
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. WE WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL FOR TEMPS
BUT AS WE NEAR DAY 7 EXPECT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AS THE
HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AS A MATTER OF FACT WE MAY SEE OUR
FIRST 90 DEGREE READING OF THE SEASON NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH IS A
LITTLE LATER THAN NORMAL. THE AVERAGE 90 DEGREE READING FOR THIS
AREA IS LATE MAY WITH THE RECORD LATEST DATE FOR 90 COMING IN LATE
JUNE.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SPOTTY SHOWER
ACTIVITY WARRANTS A VICINITY MENTION SOUTH...BUT MAY RESULT IN A
TEMPORARY MVFR VSBY RESTRICTION. TONIGHT...HIGH BLAYER RH SHOULD
SEE CIGS LOWER TO IFR. LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL ALLOW VSBYS TO RESTRICT
TO MVFR AS WELL. LIGHT SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT-TMRW MORNING COULD
SPELL BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS THAT LAST WELL INTO THE
PLANNING PERIOD.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$


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