Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 181149
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
649 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

.UPDATE
Issued at 649 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

Updated aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs. Also updated forecast to
account for isolated showers that have developed over the Evansville
Tri-State area and the Ozark Foothills of southeast Missouri early
this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

The main forecast concern in the near term continues to be the
chance for showers and thunderstorms across the entire region
today, with smaller chances over mainly eastern portions of the
area on Tuesday.

The upper level pattern through mid week will feature a trough in
the western U.S. with a ridge extending from the Gulf of Mexico
northeast into the Tennessee Valley. Weak impulses of energy will
help to flatten the northern extent of the ridge over the next
few days before the ridge becomes reestablished by mid week. In
the lower levels, winds have shifted to the northeast across much
of the region overnight. However, the location of the actual cold
front is probably closer to the I-70 corridor. This front has
essentially become stationary and is forecast to pivot back to the
north as a warm front later today.

Given the smattering of convection across the area on Sunday, we
see little reason to deviate from the going chance forecast of
showers and thunderstorms for today. That chance will likely be
higher this afternoon as we await the approach of weak energy and
its influence during time of peak instability. With the loss of
daytime heating tonight, thunderstorm activity should show some
decrease in coverage, but perhaps not completely with continued
weak upper level support. Chances for showers/storms really drop
off on Tuesday and especially Wednesday as the entire atmospheric
column undergoes some drying. Chances on Tuesday look best in
southwest Indiana and the Kentucky Pennyrile. Much of the area
should remain dry on Wednesday with the possible exception of
western Kentucky near the Tennessee border. It is difficult to
rule out an isolated heat-of-the-day storm just about anywhere
either day though.

With the upper level ridge just east of the region and southerly
flow in the low levels, warmer than normal temperatures will
persist through the period. Highs should range from the mid to
upper 80s with lows in the mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

Forecast confidence is high from Thursday through next Monday.

Very good model agreement exists that high pressure aloft and at the
surface will persist over the four state region Thursday through
next Monday. This will allow unseasonably warm and humid conditions
to continue through the period.

The models have trended drier for most of the period, and GFS
soundings near KPAH remain capped. With no significant source for
lift, any convection that develops should be diurnal and very
isolated. This forecast will have a hodge-podge of mainly slight
chance PoPs mostly in the afternoons. The exception is Saturday when
the model consensus is for the entire area to be dry.

Temperatures will continue to run 5-10 degrees above normal
throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 649 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

Once patchy fog burns off early this morning, primarily VFR
conditions are expected through the 24 hour forecast period, though
MVFR visibilities are possible with any shower activity. Widely
scattered showers are possible at just about any time today. The
best chance for greater shower and thunderstorm coverage comes this
afternoon into this evening. Variable winds early this morning will
become southerly around 5 mph by midday into the afternoon.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...RJP



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