Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 051725
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1125 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1125 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

Aviation update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 230 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

A strong cold front was slicing across western Kentucky as of 08z,
accompanied by a solid band of heavy rain showers and embedded
thunder. The front and associated rain will exit western KY and
southwest IN early this morning, followed by gusty northwest
winds up to 25 kt. If it were not for some clearing skies this
afternoon, temps would likely fall through the day. Even with
partial afternoon clearing, temps this afternoon will not climb
out of the 40s.

Mainly clear skies are forecast tonight under the influence of a
dry westerly flow. Lows will be in the upper 20s to near 30.

Wednesday through Thursday night, a positively-tilted 500 mb
shortwave will slowly drop south through the Plains and upper
Mississippi Valley. This will force a secondary cold front
southeast across our area on Wednesday. Despite the presence of
these forcing mechanisms, the models indicate little if any precip
due to the lack of moisture. Some earlier model runs showed spotty
light qpf on Thursday and Thurs evening, but the 00z runs are dry.
The forecast will follow the 00z blended pop, which is around 10
percent or lower during this time period.

The secondary cold front on Wednesday will shift winds into the
northwest, bringing a reinforcing shot of cold air. After a high
near 50 in many areas Wed, highs on Thursday will range from the
mid 30s along the I-64 corridor to around 40 elsewhere. Lows
Thursday night will fall to around 20, which is about the coldest
it has been so far this season.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 230 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

By 12Z Friday, a highly amplified upper level pattern will be set up
with a ridge in the west and trough running from the Great Lakes
down into Texas with the main upper level low in Ontario. The main
upper level trough will move through on Friday but due to a lack of
decent moisture, chances for precipitation are little to none at
this point. Another lobe of energy will rotate down toward the area
on Friday night and models are a bit more excited for precipitation
prospects due to an increase in moisture, so some light snow may
result. Right now QPF amounts are fairly light but some very minor
accumulation could occur. However, models have been having
difficulties with this system for a few days now with timing and QPF
so there will likely be additional changes in the forecast over the
next couple of days. Some lingering light snow showers could occur
Saturday morning in the eastern half of the area. By Saturday
afternoon, all precipitation should be east of the area.

It will rather cold on Friday for highs as 850 mb temperatures
remain in the -8 to -11 degree range, so many areas especially up
north will stay in the mid to upper 30s for highs, low 40s south.
This cold weather will remain in place on Saturday as well, as that
secondary upper level trough swings down into the region. In fact,
high temperatures will likely be a few degrees colder on Saturday
than what we will see on Friday.

As this upper trough slides east during the second half of the
weekend, we will see an increase in our temperatures. By 00Z Sunday,
850mb temperatures will be above zero across much of the region.
That means that we should see highs on Sunday in the 40s. We will
remain in a northwesterly flow pattern aloft early next week but
there are no signals of any arctic air entering the area as well as
any potent weather systems to deal with at this time. However, this
type of upper level pattern can easily bring a small clipper system
but models will not handle these types of systems well this far out
in time. Temperatures will remain in the 40s for highs early next
week with maybe a few locations touching around 50 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1125 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

Generally VFR conditions through midday Wednesday, with high
clouds decreasing over time. Brief MVFR cigs possible early this
afternoon from KEVV to KOWB. Gusty NW winds will diminish this
afternoon, then back to the SW 5 kts or less tonight. The winds
will become more westerly through the day Wednesday, generally
8-12 kts with some gusts 15-20 kts.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$



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