Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 192355
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
555 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 555 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

Updated aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 114 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

The ribbon of boundary layer moisture is hanging tough across the
lower Ohio river valley and is stubborn to disperse in entirety.
Satellite trends do suggest it will by days end, however, model
time/heights likewise linger a high rh through the boundary layer
again tonight. Therefore we anticipate another possible night of
low clouds/stratus and/or lower vsbys due to fog. Will include
this in grids and let tonight`s trends dictate any headlining
necessity.

Additional clouds upstream now moving into AR will begin to make
their way into the Quad State Monday, as the upper ridge slides
east. Warm air advection aloft will begin to destabilize the
environment, and with rising dew points, we`ll see a brief window
of MUCapes and elevated instability supportive of thunder
inclusion with our returning pcpn chance, Monday evening-night.

Pops will wind down from west to east Tuesday as the weakening
upper trof makes passage across the area.

Warm temps continue throughout the short term with numbers in or
near the 70s/50s for highs/lows.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 147 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

The first two days (Wednesday and Thursday) should continue the
trend of record or near record high temperatures across the WFO PAH
forecast area, with Wednesday likely to be the warmest day this
week.

Forecast confidence is higher than yesterday (50-70%) as medium
range model guidances has clustered toward a reasonable solution for
the for the early week and more importantly the late week (late
Thursday/Friday) weather systems.  SPC has already highlighted one
threat area for Friday in their Day 4 - Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook
and it seems reasonable.  The depth and speed of moisture return
will be key in determining how robust/vigorous updraft will become
in the highly sheared environment.

with the introduction of the 12z ECMWF, kept the focus of
instability (thunderstorm activity) from Thursday afternoon through
the daytime Friday. Best instability remains east of the Mississippi
river on Friday, with the highest rain chances over West Kentucky
and Southwest Indiana.

GFS MOS guidance a little higher than collaborated temperatures on
Wednesday and Thursday. Anticipate an upward adjustment in
temperatures in the Wednesday/Thursday time frame. Would not be
surprised if there is a near 80 degree reading somewhere in the WFO
PAH forecast area on Wed/Thu.

The timing of the next weather system on Sunday and Sunday night is
still uncertain, so utilized blended guidance to reflect the weather
during that time period.

Otherwise, no appreciable changes to forecast trends with this
package.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 555 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

Low ceilings and visibilities finally scoured out from most of the
area by late afternoon, although not completely in the Evansville
Tri-State. Followed a consensus of near-term guidance for tonight`s
forecast, which indicates a similar trend towards IFR/LIFR ceilings
and visibilities across southeast Illinois, southwest Indiana, and
northwest Kentucky through the night--after midnight in particular.
The rest of the area had a little more time to dry out in the low
levels this afternoon, so limited any mention of fog to MVFR there.
Other than eroding low ceilings and fog Monday morning, high clouds
will be on the increase through the day. Winds will generally be
southeasterly at less than 10 knots.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

LONG TERM...Smith


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