Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 250437
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1137 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1137 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

Updated for 06Z aviation forecast discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

Excessive heat and humidity will continue through Tuesday. Daily
heat index values will range toward 105, perhaps a couple degrees
higher at their peak, and a couple degrees lower at their minimum,
over the course of the next 48 hours. The Heat Advisory therefore
looks good to continue through its set expiration time of 7 pm
Tuesday evening.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible, particularly in the heat of
the afternoon, but believe Pops are low enough during this time
frame, with the High pressure circulating nearly overhead, to make
them silent Pops. Will monitor radar closely and change that,
if/when needed.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2014

The GFS and ECMWF ensemble mean solutions were not all that
different today in the extended. However, the ECMWF mean did
continue to show a slightly slower solution with the movement of a
steadily ewd-moving mid level trof expected to eventually enter the
central Plains, then approach the PAH forecast area. The operational
GFS continues to be more progressive with the system than the ECMWF
or the GEM.

Nrn stream mid level shrtwv energy is expected to move through the
Great Lakes late Wed. As a result, shower and tstm development will
be primarily in the nrn third of the region Wed. The edge of a dome
of high sfc pressure may enter the PAH forecast area from the ne
early Thu, providing focus for shower and tstm development across a
greater part of our region. The sfc frontal boundary should start
moving back toward the ne early Fri as the mid level ridge builds
back into the region, continuing a similar pattern of convection,
with the most limited PoPs continuing to be west of the MS River.

Sat may be dry at many locations as the region will be under general
warm swrly flow aloft and srly low level flow, with no real focusing
mechanism. Sunday looks pretty wet attm as the mid level trof, in
the process of shearing out, should be nearby. It is still a
question whether a sfc cold front will make it into our region by
Day 7.

As overall mid level heights fall during the extended period, temp
trends are beginning to show a season-appropriate slight cool-down
with time. No heat headlines are expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1137 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

Another quiet night on tap. MVFR fog may threaten the sites again
tonight...as the temp/dewpoint spread could be less than in
previous nights. Already seeing neighboring obs drop down into the
MVFR category as of this writing. Could see more diurnal cu on
Monday with bases in the 2500-3500 ft range, much like what was
seen on Sunday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$



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