000
FXUS63 KPAH 141937
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
237 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL DECREASE TOWARD
SUNSET. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM
CDT...WHEN WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW CRITERIA.

WITH A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO
RIVER VALLEYS.  DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.  LATER IN THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS THESE TWO SYSTEMS DRIFT A LITTLE FARTHER
EAST...MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE PAH FORECAST AREA.
THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. GFS...NAM AND SREF SHOW A LITTLE QPF TRYING THE
MAKE IT INTO FAR WEST AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...SO CONTINUED WITH SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE
AREAS.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FA. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A LITTLE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA...SO WENT WITH A LITTLE
HIGHER POPS FOR THESE AREAS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A WARM FRONT SETS UP TO
OUR NORTH...SO TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

AN ACTIVE MORE OR LESS ZONAL FLOW PATTERN SETS THE STAGE FOR DAILY
CHC POPS THAT WILL EXTEND THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. RATHER THAN PAINT AN EVERYWHERE/ANYTIME POP...WE TRIED
TO TIME THE UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS AND OFFER BEST CHANCE TIMER
PERIODS FOR POPS. THIS YIELDED A COUPLE OF TIME PERIODS THAT PERHAPS
WILL FIGURE TO BE MAINLY DRY WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE.

SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT MAY WELL BE THE `DRY` OR `DRIEST`
PERIOD OF NOTE...AS THE MID WEEK WAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND THIS
RESULTS IN A TELECONNECTED TEMPORARY RIDGING OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY.
WE ADJUSTED POPS/TEMPS ACCORDINGLY...NUDGING UPWARD FOR HIGHS AND
REMOVING THE EVERY DAY MENTION/POPS.

LATE IN THE PERIOD...LARGE HEIGHT FALLS RESULT IN CYCLOGENESIS IN
THE PLAINS STATES. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE TRANSLATING THIS
SYSTEM WITH ITS PRE FRONTAL LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS INTO/ACROSS THE
AREA AS EARLY AS MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
AND THEREFORE SLOWER AND MORE `JUICED` AS IT SHOVES A LINE IN/THRU
THE AREA MORE ON TUESDAY. GIVEN THE TRENDING FROM YESTERDAY (SUNDAY
NIGHT SYSTEM PASSAGE SCENARIO) TO TODAY...WE`LL LEAN A LITTLE TOWARD
THE LATER IS SOONER APPROACH FOR THIS PACKAGE AND CLOSELY MONITOR
ITS EVOLUTION NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST MEANS S-SWLYS RETURN
FLOW HAS SET UP...WITH SOME DIURNAL GUSTINESS INTO THE 20S KTS. THIS
SHOULD WANE WITH SETTING SUN AS LIGHT FLOW IS MAINTAINED WITH LTL/NO
CLOUDS. IT PICKS UP AGAIN TMRW...PERHAPS WITH A LITTLE MORE EARNEST
AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES TIGHTENS THE
GRADIENT SOMEWHAT AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE LIFTING WAVE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ076-086-
     087-100-107>112-114.

IN...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...DH
AVIATION...DH