Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 102100
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
300 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 300 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018

Will issue a Winter Weather Advisory for tonight, generally north
of a Poplar Bluff, MO - Harrisburg, IL - Mount Vernon, IN line and
end it early Sunday morning. Overrunning light rain and drizzle
will forecast to develop tonight. The freezing line at 20z was at
our door step. Perry counties IL and MO are likely at 32F or so.
The freezing line will progress slowly southeast tonight, to near
the Ohio River. One could argue another row of counties, but
precipitation will be winding down by that time, and we plan on a
Special Weather Statement for the rest of the area that will cover
a couple of things. Overall impacts will be limited to light
glaze potential that could cause a few travel impacts overnight.
Glazing should be below 1/10th of an inch. But it doesn`t take
much. Meanwhile, after midnight, another swath of plain rain
showers will increase and move northeast across west KY,
accompanied by slightly higher QPF.

We should see a lull in the activity Sunday. Sunday late day and
early evening, a mid level s/wv pushes toward the area from the
west. Model consensus is for a flare up of precipitation from
around the MO Bootheel region extending northeast along the Ohio
River and into some of west Kentucky. This could pose another
Advisory situation, but it`s border line as temperatures will be
right at freezing at onset and just below by a degree or two as it
moves east. Will monitor for a wintry mix. It should be over by
midnight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018

Given the high variability in the PoP/Weather forecasts via the
regionally blended model guidance, am reluctant to extended forecast
confidence above 50 percent at this time.

Having made that statement, the 12z Saturday deterministic runs of
the Canadian (CMCnh), European (ECWMF), and GFS are quite similar in
placing the WFO PAH forecast area under the influence of a broad low
level ridge from Monday through daytime Wednesday, effectively
diverting a majority of the vorticity advection (lift) to the faster
zonal flow to the north, and moisture advection suppressed southward
to due a broad low level ridge.

Forecast confidence does drop Thursday to Saturday night, as there
is some variability in the strength of the northern stream
shortwaves and cold air advection digging southward into the WFO PAH
forecast area and the amount of moisture advection from the Gulf of
Mexico. Utilized a blend of the CMCnh, ECMWF, and GFS for PoPs and
temperatures for the period from Thursday through Saturday. This
adjustment slows the temperature response following the passage of a
cold front late Thursday into late Thursday night, which slows the
potential for any wintry mix until late Thursday into Friday
morning, then again Friday night into Saturday morning. Given the
low QPF (precipitation amounts) in the wintry mix, this should
remain a minor, sub-winter advisory level event at this juncture.

Temperatures will likely move from five degrees below normal for
Monday, up to 10 to 15 degrees above normal on Wednesday and
Thursday ahead of the cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 300 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018

Conditions will mostly be MVFR to IFR. Light freezing precipitation
is anticipated NW of a KEVV to KSIK line, especially from 02-03
UTC on. Rain will increase in intensity after 06z southeast of
the KEVV-KSIK line and push east Sunday morning. Winds will be
north up to 10 kts.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 8 AM CST
     Sunday for ILZ075>078-080>089-092.

MO...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 8 AM CST
     Sunday for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>111.

IN...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 8 AM CST
     Sunday for INZ081-082-085.

KY...None.
&&

$$



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