Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 100455
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1155 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2017

Updated aviation section for 06z TAF package.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2017

High pressure will gradually move east of the region tonight
through Thursday. However an extension of the ridge will continue
to extend SW across the area, along with a persistent wedge of
drier air overhead. So mainly dry weather through Thursday with a
gradual increase in clouds. Thursday night through Friday night,
chance PoPs for convection will slowly increase as a weakening
frontal boundary enters the area, along with greater moisture, and
subtle mid level support in an active NW flow. PoPs appears as if
they will peak Friday afternoon or evening, then diminish after
midnight. Model preference was a blend of the NAM/CMC and EC. The
temperature forecast is a persistence, MOS blend.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2017

Well the long term is still looking messy but at least for the
initial part of the long term forecast, models are coming into
better agreement.

To start off our weekend, sfc high pressure will be impacting the
northern parts of the CWA which should keep them mainly dry. Enough
moisture may be lingering in southern parts...i.e southeast MO, far
southern IL and western KY, where we could see some shower and
thunderstorm development, but the GFS seems to be the only model
with rain prospects so far north. However, models are in better
agreement later on in the weekend. More widespread chances appear to
be on Saturday night and Sunday when some upper level energy shifts
eastward into the area. At the sfc...there is hints of a weak sfc
stationary boundary setting up near the area. Should not be a
washout but there could be multiple rounds of precipitation that
could move through. Trying to time these rounds of rain and storms
is difficult at best right now. Just the fact that we are finally
seeing some sense of consistency is encouraging.

For early next week, this is where models really diverge. The
00Z/12Z ECMWF indicates the deep moisture shifting south of the area
as a front slides south and sfc high pressure builds in on Monday.
The GFS is about 24 hrs slower in scouring the area out and shows us
finally drying out during the day on Tuesday instead. In fact, the
GFS ensembles don`t have us drying out at all...so nothing is set in
stone at this point and a lot could change. To add more uncertainty,
the Canadian model has things dry for us from Friday through Monday,
then bringing in precipitation with a frontal passage on Monday
night into Tuesday. Therefore, POPs will stay low for the duration
of the extended period.

Temperatures in the extended period should remain in the lower to
mid 80s during the day with the help of clouds and rain chances and
mid to upper 60s at night.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2017

MVFR fog possible mainly at KCGI/KPAH between 08z-13z. VFR
conditions expected after 13z at all sites with a gradual
increase in mid level clouds. Winds will be light and variable to
calm overnight, becoming southeast around 4 kts after 14z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...RST



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