Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 131755
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY Issued by
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1145 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1145 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018
Updated Aviation Discussion for 18Z TAFs below.

Issued at 700 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

Updated forecast to account for northward progression of low
clouds and eastward progression of mid clouds into the area this
morning. Also added a mention of flurries to portions of southeast
Missouri in accordance with ground truth obtained by the NWS in
Springfield with the light radar echoes over the Missouri Ozarks.
Otherwise, remainder of forecast is unchanged from prior.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 330 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

An active pattern is shaping up over the next several days. Many
topics warrant discussion with this forecast package, including
low clouds today, the potential for thunder tonight into early
Wednesday, unseasonable warmth Wednesday and especially Thursday,
and another chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday night.
Fortunately, forecast confidence is relatively high with decent
overall model agreement.

But starting with the weather at hand, another dry day is shaping
up for the Heartland as high pressure continues to shift east of
the area. GOES fog imagery indicates the advection of low clouds
into southern portions of western Kentucky overnight. Both NAM12
and GFS20 925mb relative humidity depictions pick up on the clouds
fairly well. Both models suggest that while the clouds may continue
to creep northward into the area early this morning, they should
begin to shift east by late morning and afternoon as low level
flow becomes increasingly south southwesterly through the day.

Tonight through Thursday night, an energetic west southwest flow
pattern will become established over the Heartland. Increasing
Gulf moisture on strong low level south to southwest winds will
interact with at least a couple of atmospheric perturbations to
result in the potential for showers and perhaps even some
thunderstorms. The first such period of showers is forecast to
arrive after midnight tonight and last into Wednesday morning.
Forecast marginal elevated instability should support the
development of at least widely scattered thunderstorms over the
southern 2/3 of the area after midnight. The thunderstorms should
rapidly diminish Wednesday morning as warmer air aloft stabilizes
the atmosphere. Rainfall amounts with this first round are
forecast to range from one quarter to one half inch.

Rain chances decrease Wednesday night into early Thursday,
although it`s difficult to rule out the development of widely
scattered showers in the moist flow regime. Another round of
showers is forecast to arrive Thursday night with the approach
and passage of a cold front. Once again, marginal elevated
instability supports at least a slight chance of thunderstorms,
particularly during the evening hours Thursday. Rainfall totals
with this round should range from one half to one inch. Multi-day
totals in the 1 to 2 inch range should not be enough to cause
significant water problems, but some minor issues could arise in
locations that receive the heaviest and most persistent downpours.
Fortunately, temperatures through Thursday night are expected to
remain warm enough to keep the precipitation in liquid form.

A warming trend will take place through most of the short term.
Highs today are forecast in the upper 40s to lower 50s, with
readings near 60 on Wednesday. Thursday may turn out to be the
warmest day we`ve seen in quite some time, with highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s. Those would be warmest highs since late
November and early December. Breezy conditions will develop on
Wednesday, but it will be downright windy by Thursday with winds
sustained 15 to 20 mph and gusts as high as 30 mph forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

At 12z Friday, GFS and the Canadian show the cold front just
southeast of the PAH forecast area, while the ECMWF is a bit slower
and has it still in our far southeast counties.  Post frontal
precipitation will be mixing with and changing over to snow before
ending from northwest to southeast Friday into Friday evening as
colder air moves into the region.  With the wintry precipitation
potential on the tail end of the activity, any snow amounts are
expected to be little to none, especially with ground temperatures
likely pretty warm after such unseasonably warm temperatures in the
days prior.  Models seem to be wavering on just how far south the
front will move, which puts precipitation ending times in question,
but the preference right now is to lean toward the more consistent
GFS run.  GFS indicates high pressure building in the behind the
front, pushing it far enough south to give us dry conditions late
Friday night into Saturday night.

Temperatures will be near seasonal on Saturday, then with winds
shifting back to the south, we should see a significant warm up to
well above normal readings Sunday into Monday.  Overnight lows
Sunday night will be close to our normal highs.  A warm front
lifting across and lingering near or over the region will put us in
an unsettled pattern Sunday into Monday.  Models, in typical
fashion, vary in just how far north it will go and the overall
movement of front, but on and off shower chances look to be a good
bet at this point for the end of the weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1145 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

MVFR ceilings around 1500 ft have been prevalent this morning at the
TAF sites. However, latest visible satellite imagery shows that
these clouds are lifting slowly northward and gradually eroding.
Therefore, low clouds should scatter out this afternoon, first at
CGI and PAH, later at EVV and OWB. Additional clouds around 5000 ft
are moving northeast at the same time over AR and southwest MO, and
these should eventually affect most of the TAF sites later today
and/or this evening. Surface winds this afternoon will remain or
become southerly around 5 kts.

For tonight, a weather disturbance will quickly head northeastward
toward the region. Low IFR ceilings will return from SW to NE mainly
after midnight. Scattered to numerous rain showers also are expected
overnight and into the first half of the day on Wednesday. A modest
reduction in visibility to MVFR should occur as well. Once ceilings
go down again, they will stay that way through the end of the
forecast period. Not out of the question there could be some LIFR
ceilings from time to time.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE....RJP
SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...TWF



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