Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 131753
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1153 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1152 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 250 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

A surface analysis this morning showed high pressure over central
Missouri with light northerly winds across the region. Generally
clear skies prevailed, outside of some cirrus across southern MO and
southwest KY, and readings were mainly in the 30s.

For today, plan on quiet and dry weather as the aforementioned high
pressure slides east, reaching central Kentucky later this afternoon
and evening. Winds will stay northerly this morning, then become
light and variable this afternoon. Overall mostly sunny skies are
expected with some increasing cirrus for this afternoon and evening.
Plan on highs to reach the upper 40s with a few spots hitting the 50
degree mark.

A southern stream system tracking across Texas and the Gulf Coast
states tonight through Tuesday will largely stay south of the PAH
area, however the northern fringes of this system could brush parts
of southeast MO and southwest KY, so have continued 20 to 40 percent
chances Tuesday and Tuesday night for the far southern areas.
Thermal profiles would suggest this to be all liquid.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 252 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

The long term forecast period through Friday looks to be dry as
weather systems stay well south or north of the area. The upper
level pattern will start off with troughing across the eastern CONUS
and ridging through the Rockies. This will slowly translate east by
week`s end, bringing moderating temperatures by Friday. Highs Friday
should reach the low 60s. Morning lows Wednesday and Thursday will
be in the 20s/30s but stay in the 40s by the end of the week.

A cut-off low is forecast to track across Texas and Gulf Coast
states this weekend, lifting northward into the PAH region by
Saturday or Sunday. This lowers confidence for a dry/warm forecast
as some of the 13.00z models hint at some deeper moisture lifting
north and light showers. For now, kept a dry forecast but will have
to see how trends evolve this week. A model consensus of
temperatures was used showing highs well into the 60s and lows in
the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1152 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

Surface high pressure is settling over the area, resulting in
light and variable winds this afternoon and tonight. Ceilings will
lower to around 10kft throughout the area late tonight, and there
is a non-zero chance of light rain straddling 12Z at KCGI and
KPAH, as a storm system approaches from the southwest. Definitely
went on the dry/optimistic side in keeping the forecasts VFR at
KCGI and KPAH Tuesday morning. MVFR or lower conditions cannot be
ruled out.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DRS



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