Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 092326
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
626 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 626 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017

Aviation update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017

Warm front approaching from south/west will lead to an increase in
clouds and rain chances overnight. Time/heights suggest
fog/drizzle a possibility too, and mos agrees. Warm sector rain
chances thus continue into tmrw, as warm temps in 80s/60s
do likewise, with nice dew point tongue pressing td`s around 70F
at times.

With approach of cold front during heat of day Tuesday, storm
chances peak, with SPC still outlooking us in marginal risk as
negatively tilted trof energy advances the cold front`s passage.
Lingering evening pcpn will diminish overnight with said passage,
and then we`ll finish out the short term Wednesday with a
relative cool off to more seasonal temps in the 70s/50s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017

Fairly high confidence in the extended forecast.

Upper level heights are forecast to increase as ridging across the
southeast U.S. nudges northward into the Ohio Valley region late
this week. At the surface, high pressure will dominate our weather
pattern Thursday through Saturday, with dry conditions expected.

Computer forecast models continue to hint at our next cold front
coming in on Sunday/Sunday night with associated precipitation
chances. Timing differences remain, with the 12z GFS continuing to
speed up the frontal passage, bringing in rain as early as overnight
Saturday night and sweeping it through by early afternoon Sunday.
The ECMWF/Canadian/Ensemble means remain about 12 hours slower than
the GFS, with later Sunday into Sunday evening/night most favored
for frontal passage and rain chances. Models continue to hint at
some marginal instability with some thunder potential, but went
ahead and sided with previous forecasts and kept thunder out until
the models resolve the timing differences.

With the core of the surface high settling off to our east by
Friday, southerly flow will lead to another period of well above
normal temperatures late this week. After a seasonably warm day in
the 70s on Thursday, highs look to be back into the 80s on Friday
and Saturday. Depending on the timing of our next cold front, they
may reach 80 again on Sunday. Cooler weather returns early next week
with temperatures back closer to normal (low 70s for highs, around
50 for lows), in the wake of the frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 626 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017

Will gradually lower cigs and vsbys as the chance of showers and a
few storms increases through the night, in response to a low level
advection of warm moist air. MVFR conditions probable overnight
into early Tuesday. The possibility of IFR conditions exists, but
are more uncertain, primarily at KCGI and KPAH. There should be a
break tomorrow before the cold front arrives toward late day and
evening. Winds will be light east / southeast.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$



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